TV sources on ACC potentially adding Cal, Stanford: 'Does not make sense'

As ACC athletic directors and university presidents assess the benefits of adding California and Stanford, the most important question is clear: What’s in it for the ACC?

Sources familiar with the ACC’s thinking confirmed to On3 that the league is engrossed in preliminary internal discussions about the value of adding the two Bay Area schools. ESPN‘s Pete Thamel first reported Monday that ACC was planning two league-wide calls to discuss the matter, one among athletic directors and another among university presidents. The first meeting took place Tuesday morning and the league is “still evaluating” the two schools, Thamel reported.

For the two biggest brands remaining in the Pac-12, a landing spot in the ACC is clearly their most attractive option. But for the ACC, a variety of college sports stakeholders, including some with deep ACC ties, told On3 that the additions of California and Stanford would be fraught with challenges.

Chief among them: Travel logistics and associated high costs abound for a conference, whose westernmost school is Notre Dame in sports other than football, to add a Bay Area outpost.

Secondly, there is no guarantee that providing a safe haven for California and Stanford would allay concerns from the league’s biggest brands, most notably Florida State, over the financial viability of the league and whether it can stay within shouting distance of the SEC and Big Ten.

And perhaps most importantly, it is doubtful the additions would grow the league’s revenue pie enough, if at all, to warrant the expansion, TV sources said.

Asked specifically how much the revenue pie would grow if the ACC added Cal and Stanford, a veteran TV source told On3, “It wouldn’t make any difference.”

Another TV source said, “Relatively few people watch Stanford and Cal football. So, I don’t know how that helps the ACC other than prestige.”

Neal Pilson, the longtime former CBS Sports president, told On3 on Tuesday: “I don’t think either or both Cal and Stanford add sufficient value to an ACC TV package to induce the conference or ESPN to add them to the agreement. And the travel costs to the two schools for football, basketball and multiple Olympic sports would be prohibitive. Makes more sense for the four remaining Pac-10 teams (including Oregon State and Washington State) to join the Mountain West, improve its value for TV and perhaps change the conference name back to the Pac-12 (or 14).”

ACC ‘alternatives don’t look great’

A longtime ACC administrator also immediately cited a lack of clear financial value for the league when asked about the benefits of adding Cal and Stanford.

In 2016, the ACC and ESPN agreed to a 20-year rights package that runs through 2036. In 2021-22, the ACC distributed an average of almost $39.5 million per school for full members. That falls short of the dollars that SEC schools ($49.9) and Big Ten schools ($47.9) received. 

But ACC schools know that the financial gap will only widen once the Big Ten expands with UCLA, USC, Oregon and Washington joining next year and the SEC adds Texas and Oklahoma next year. And with a rights deal that runs through 2036, there is little the ACC can do to keep pace with the industry’s two superpowers.

Florida State in particular knows the gap could grow to a $30 million annual disparity.

What’s more, there are no indications that ESPN would sweeten the ACC’s deal financially with the additions of Cal and Stanford. If anything, the network has signaled that it will be more selective in media rights decisions as it undergoes a belt-tightening. It is laying off thousands of employees and Disney CEO Bob Iger has said they are looking for a strategic partner to sell a stake of ESPN.

“Does not make sense to me,” one TV source said. “ESPN controls ACC. Why does ESPN want to ante up more money to make that happen? If they were to ante up more money, existing schools like Florida State would want more first. It makes sense for Stanford and Cal to have – or give the appearance of having – the conversation [with the ACC] because the alternatives don’t look great.”

Deptures of five schools – Oregon, Washington to the Big Ten; Arizona, Arizona State and Utah to the Big 12 – left Cal and Stanford without a viable league. The so-called Pac-4 is in tatters, and still without a rights deal to broadcast its inventory after July 1. 

‘Travel would be insane’

If the ACC passes on Cal and Stanford, the two robust academic institutions still have options.

One would be a merger of some sort with the Mountain West Conference. Conversations would need to ensue with the MWC’s TV partners, CBS and FOX Sports. The league has a $270 million rights deal that runs through the 2025-26 season.

Another option is the American Athletic Conference. Sources with direct knowledge of the league’s strategy told On3 on Monday that the 14-member league is interested in adding any or all of the remaining Pac-12 schools. It believes it is a sound landing spot because of its long-term $1 billion deal with linear partner ESPN.

It’s also possible that some or all of the remaining Pac-4 schools compete as independents, but that opens up myriad questions about brand visibility and a television deal. Embattled Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff could also move to expand, perhaps looking to add long-linked schools like SMU and San Diego State. But numerous stakeholders acknowledge that a Pac-12 invite now is not nearly as attractive as it looked earlier this summer when the league was intact.

But first, the ACC needs to make a decision regarding expansion after assessing a slew of challenges, most notably any financial upside for the league and the obvious thicket of travel issues.

As one TV source said, “Travel would be insane.”