ESPN Bracketologist Joe Lunardi on Kentucky: 'I Don't See Them As a No. 1 Seed'

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Kentucky is moving up in the Bracketology World, at least in the eyes of ESPN. After No. 16 Clemson’s loss to Miami on Wednesday, the Cats are primed to improve their standing in many mock brackets, including longtime ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi’s. In Lunardi’s latest mock bracket released Friday, Kentucky moved up from a No. 3 seed to a No. 2 seed.

Despite moving up, Kentucky still has a long way to go if it wants to be considered the best of the best. Lunardi told KSR+ that it will be tough for Kentucky to land one of the four No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament.

“I don’t see them as a No. 1 seed,” Lunardi said. “I don’t think they’re in Purdue’s class, I don’t think they’re in UConn’s class. At least when UConn is healthy. I haven’t seen Houston enough to know. I think they’re maybe a sliver behind Kansas, although that game at the Champion’s Classic could’ve gone either way.”

Lunardi may not see Kentucky as a No. 1 seed, but he still believes they’re among the nation’s best. That’s been evident throughout the first couple of months of the season.

“Do I think that they’re one of the two or three best teams in the country? No,” Lunardi said. “Do I think they’re on the bubble of the Top 10 as we go forward here? Absolutely.”

Joe Lunardi’s Thoughts on Kentucky’s 2023-24 Squad

Where things currently stand, Kentucky might not be a No. 1 seed, but they’re off to a good start to the 2023-24 season. At 10-2, Kentucky ranks No. 6 in the latest AP Poll.

“By and large, it’s been a pretty consistent non-conference season,” Lunardi said. “Maybe not quite as many big wins as we’re accustomed to seeing, but certainly in fine shape.”

Lunardi sees Kentucky as a team that can make a run in the tournament and has a lot of talent across the board. Kentucky’s wins over Miami and North Carolina were two of its best in non-conference play.

“It’s a nice mix of new guys, as always, and a couple of key veterans,” Lunardi said. “This team should be into the second weekend of the tournament. At that point, they’re all coin-flip games.”

Kentucky has lost two games this season. Its first was to the then No. 1-ranked Kansas Jayhawks in Chicago for the Champion’s Classic on November 14. The second was a home loss to unranked UNC-Wilmington on December 2. Despite losing at home to an unranked team, Lunardi doesn’t see the UNC-Wilmington loss affecting Kentucky’s resume too much.

“I don’t think it’s the end of the world,” Lunardi said. “It’s not keeping them from being a No. 1 seed at this point. They wouldn’t be a No. 1 seed even had they won the game. I don’t want to say it’s inconsequential, but teams like Kentucky in a power conference get so many opportunities to counteract a quote, unquote, bad loss that it usually just shakes itself out.”

Lunardi said that UNC-Wilmington isn’t a terribly bad non-conference loss. They’re potentially a tournament team themselves.

“They’re going to win 20-plus games. They’re pretty good,” he said. “It’s not a great loss, but I wouldn’t put it into the anchor territory.”

Lunardi Projects the SEC to Be a 9-Bid League

Kentucky does have some hope of being a No. 1 seed, but it will take a dominant performance in SEC play. If they’re able to win the SEC regular season and the SEC Tournament, Lunardi said it would be hard not to consider them among the nation’s four best.

“If they win the SEC regular season and the SEC Tournament, they’re going to be pushing high 20s and maybe even 30 wins when you count the conference tournament games,” he said. “They would push for a No. 1 seed at that point.”

However, winning the SEC will be no easy task. ESPN currently projects the SEC to have nine NCAA Tournament bids, which would be a record for the conference.

“Everybody is going to take some losses if the league is that deep,” Lunardi said. “Kentucky still has to play nine of its 18 league games on the road. Road teams in college basketball still only win about 30 percent of the time, no matter who you are.”

While Kentucky may be loaded with talent, Lunardi doesn’t believe they’re the best team in the conference. He says that goes to their rival in orange.

“I think roster-wise, Tennessee is the best team in the SEC,” Lunardi said. “I thought that at the start of the year. Some people have fallen off the Tennessee bandwagon. I have them as a No. 2 seed.”

Looking at the rest of the SEC, Lunardi said he believes Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State are quality opponents. The opportunities for Kentucky to trip up will be numerous.

“There are some definite landmines in the league,” Lunardi said. “The winner of the league is not going to be 17-1. The winner of the league is probably going to be more likely to be 14-4. Can Kentucky go 14-4? Absolutely.”

His First Experience at Rupp Arena

A graduate of St. Joseph’s University, Joe Lunardi got the chance to watch his alma mater face off against this year’s Kentucky team in a November game that went to overtime. Surprisingly enough, this was Lunardi’s first-ever game at Rupp Arena.

“From the moment I got off the bus, under the building with the St. Joe’s team, people were recognizing me and being gracious and engaging,” Lunardi said. “They wanted to just talk basketball. What’s better than that, really? I enjoyed the trip.”

While Lunardi had a good time in Lexington for the game, it’s been a bit of a rocky relationship between him and the Kentucky fan base. There aren’t any fan bases quite as loud as Kentucky’s when it comes to passion for their team.

“I have had a bit of a love-hate relationship over the years with Big Blue Nation,” he said. “Sometimes, I feel like they love to hate me. Obviously, they take basketball pretty seriously in the Commonwealth and if I move them down a seed line or two, I usually hear about it in one manner or another. My phone starts to dance.”

“After Kentucky, everyone else is playing for second,” he added. “Big Blue Nation stands apart in its volume and generally positive support for their team.”