Ranking Penn State's 2022 opponents by preseason SP+

ESPN’s Bill Connelly recently released his way-too-early SP+ projections ahead of the 2022 season, and Penn State comes in at No. 16.

The formula uses three factors to project how the season will play out: Returning production, recent recruiting, and recent history.

Here’s a look at how their schedule stacks up:

12. Ohio (110)

Penn State holds a 5-1 all-time record against the Bobcats, but Ohio has the most recent win in the series — a 24-14 triumph in 2012. Tim Albin’s Bobcats finished just 3-9 in 2021 after an 0-4 start which included a loss to Duquesne. SP+ rates Ohio’s offense as the 91st best in the county and the defense at 113th.

11. Northwestern (89)

Just two years removed from an appearance in the Big Ten title game, SP+ has Northwestern ranked as the worst team in the Big Ten. Penn State leads the all-time series 14-5 after a 31-7 win in Evanston back in 2017. The Wildcats went 3-9 last season, with their only Big Ten win coming at home against Rutgers. Connelly’s formula ranks their offense 109th and their defense 61st.

10. Central Michigan (87)

The second MAC opponent on Penn State’s agenda next season comes in at No. 87. Penn State won its only meeting with the Chippewas 40-3 back in 2005. The Chippewas went 9-4 last season, closing out the year with a Sun Bowl victory over Washington State. Their offense is ranked 67th according to SP+, while their defense comes in at 103rd.

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9. Indiana (78)

The Hoosiers are the lowest-ranked team in the Big Ten East according to SP+ following an incredibly disappointing 2021 season, in which they went 2-10 overall and winless in the Big Ten. Penn State shut them out 24-0 at Beaver Stadium in October, and owns a 23-2 all-time advantage in the series. Indiana’s offense is ranked 93rd according to SP+, while its defense is ranked 54th.

8. Rutgers (77)

The last of Penn State’s opponents that SP+ considers a below-average team heading into 2022, Rutgers, comes in at No. 77. A flu-ridden Penn State team beat the Scarlet Knights 28-0 in Happy Valley this season, and PSU boasts a 30-2 record all-time against its neighbor to the east. Rutgers went 5-8 last season, and enters the new campaign with the 98th-ranked offense and 44th-ranked defense.

7. Maryland (41)

Mike Locksley’s Maryland team comes in at No. 41 in the SP+ rankings ahead of 2022 after earning bowl eligibility in 2021 and stomping Virginia Tech in the Pinstripe Bowl to finish off a 7-6 season. Penn State claimed a 31-14 win on the road against the Terps this season, adding to a 41-3-1 all-time lead in the series. Connelly ranks Maryland’s offense at No. 10 in the SP+, while its defense lags behind at No. 77.

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6. Purdue (27)

Penn State starts its season with a challenging road game on a Thursday night at Purdue, which enters the SP+ rankings at No. 27. The two teams last met in 2019, when Penn State scored a 35-7 win in Happy Valley. Purdue went 9-4 last season, including a 48-45 win over Tennessee in the Music City Bowl. SP+ ranks the Boilermakers’ offense at No. 39 and their defense at No. 22.

5. Auburn (25)

The Nittany Lions make the return trip to Auburn this fall, where they’ll take on the 25th-rated Tigers, who retained head coach Bryan Harsin despite some indications that they might not. Penn State bested Auburn 28-20 last season and holds a 2-1 lead in the all-time series. The Tigers finished the season at 6-7, and come into 2022 with SP+’s 45th-ranked offense and No. 14 defense.

4. Minnesota (19)

SP+ projects that Penn State’s most difficult crossover opponent in 2022 will be the Gophers, who carry the No. 19 overall rating. Minnesota won the last meeting between the two teams 31-26 in Minneapolis, cutting PSU’s lead in the all-time series to 9-6. They went 9-4 in 2021, including a bowl win over West Virginia. Connelly’s formula gives the Gophers the No. 48 overall rating on offense and the No. 9 overall defensive rating.

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3. Michigan State (17)

The Spartans come into this season one spot below Penn State in the SP+ ratings after besting the Nittany Lions in the snow in East Lansing last season, giving themselves an 18-17-1 advantage over PSU in the all-time series. Sparty went 11-2 in Mel Tucker’s second season in the job, winning the Peach Bowl against Pitt. The MSU offense is ranked 35th by SP+, while its defense comes in at 17th.

2. Michigan (4)

The first Big Ten team not named Ohio State to make the College Football Playoff since 2015-16, Michigan enters 2022 ranked at No. 4 by the SP+. The Wolverines squeezed out a 21-17 win over Penn State at Beaver Stadium last season, extending their lead in the all-time series to 15-10. They finished the year 12-2 after they were thumped by Georgia in the national semifinals. SP+ ranks their offense fifth and their defense at No. 19 heading into 2022.

1. Ohio State (1)

The Buckeyes are the best team in the country heading into 2022 according to the SP+ formula. They have the best offense according to SP+ by a wide, wide margin, and the No. 11 ranked defense. The Nittany Lions haven’t beaten the Buckeyes in the last five seasons, losing a 33-24 game in Columbus last year. Ohio State finished the year at 11-2, missing out on the Big Ten title.