Staff Predictions: What will be Penn State's record for the 2024 season?

Penn State has been one of the more consistent programs in college football under head coach James Franklin, but that didn’t result in a College Football Playoff birth during the four-team era. Now, with the 2024 season almost here, everything is set to change in the sport.

Both the Big Ten and the SEC have added elite programs to cement themselves as the nation’s best, but the CFP will also look drastically different, tripling in size from four to 12 teams. That opens up the door for the Nittany Lions to become a much more consistent player in the race to make the playoff.

So, will they take advantage of that opportunity in 2024? Our staff gives their predictions here.

Nate Bauer

So much of college football is about timing and schedule, and this season — just like the previous two — is about those same elements for Penn State. The Nittany Lions still have Ohio State, which will field one of the best teams in the nation this year. But, in a dramatically evolved landscape that includes an expanded College Football Playoff, an expanded Big Ten and the elimination of the conference’s divisions, this is the season for the Lions to get over the hump.

The bugaboo of playing both Ohio State and Michigan is no more. And the newest juggernaut to the conference, Oregon, isn’t on the slate. Instead, Penn State can work out the expected kinks of three new coordinators through the first month if it can get past West Virginia in the opener. With two or fewer losses likely to be a near auto-berth for Big Ten teams to the postseason, it sets up for a meaty middle full of good-not-great opponents, including UCLA, USC, Wisconsin and Washington, with the Buckeyes wedged in between.

Penn State will have to earn its entry to the CFP, but its personnel, combined with an expanded margin of error, put longheld aspirations well within reach.

Prediction: 10-2

Thomas Frank Carr

Penn State embarks on a new adventure this fall with the expanded Big Ten folding in the meatiest portions of the Pac-12. With new adventures come unprecedented situations for us to predict. When you consider the team’s three new coordinators, this season could end in a wide variety of outcomes.

The fun starts out of the gate against West Virginia in the opener. Last season, the Nittany Lions started slowly but ended up routing the Mountaineers at Beaver Stadium. But can they weather a potentially sloppy opener on the road? Breaking in a new offense and defense, despite the desire for continuity, isn’t easy.

If they get through the nonconference slate unscathed, the Lions will be relatively safe until the meatgrinder starts with a trip to USC on Oct. 12.

Despite all the changes, Penn State is still an upper-tier team with a deep defensive roster and an underrated and motivated offense. Yes, there are some questions, but I think the season ends in a similar place. Penn State gets through the game against West Virginia and goes 10-2 with losses to Ohio State and USC. Finally, the Lions find themselves in the expanded College Football Playoff.

Prediction: 10-2

Sean Fitz

With everything going on in the college football offseason, it’s been easy to forget about the actual games that are starting on Aug. 31. It’s also easy to forget that Penn State should be bringing back a pretty talented bunch for the 2024 season. Franklin found three new coordinators for three separate reasons. While there is optimism that comes with that, everything will still hinge on how many points the Nittany Lions can post in big games.

The basic formula is going to be the same, at least until the offense can find its wings. Tom Allen, now charged with running a defense instead of running an entire college team, has some talent at his disposal. While he probably won’t be as aggressive as his predecessor Manny Diaz, speed all over the defense will make his job a little easier. The defense should once again set the table, and we will see what Drew Allar is made of. If he can find some weapons and gain some confidence early, Andy Kotelnicki should have something to work with.

Tough road trips to West Virginia, USC and Wisconsin are all games in which Penn State should have the better side, but they remain very tricky. I expect the Lions to be tripped up on the road at least once.

Prediction: 10-2

Matt Herb

Penn State appears to have a lot of the pieces in place to earn a spot in the expanded College Football Playoff, including the piece that’s hardest to find: a high-level starting quarterback. Allar may have had a few rough patches as a sophomore, but the good handily outweighed the bad, and his physical talent is undeniable.

The concern — and I feel like I could have copy-pasted this line from last year’s predictions — is that we don’t know yet whether the wide receiver corps has made the strides that PSU needs it to make. Pulling transfer Julian Fleming out of Ohio State will certainly help, but what the Lions really need is for their homegrown talent to blossom. If that happens, this offense will be formidable because the tight end corps and backfield boast proven playmakers, and the line has promise, even with three new starters set to take over. If it doesn’t happen, if the Nittany Lions are forced to find workarounds in order to establish an aerial threat, they’ll likely find themselves once again on the playoff bubble.

Prediction: 9-3

Greg Pickel

Penn State has yet to make the College Football Playoff. Is this the year the Nittany Lions finally do it? Franklin’s team has long had the misfortune of being labeled as the program that would be aided most by playoff expansion. Well, it’s finally here. So, can the Lions walk the walk after all of the talk?

We’ve heard about how Kotelnicki will improve the offense while Tom Allen will keep or raise the high standard set by Diaz on defense. There are returning starters across the roster, exciting young players who are ready for bigger roles, and a rather favorable schedule. In other words, Penn State has no reason to suffer more than a loss or two.

If that ends up being the case — and I think it will be — then all signs should point to a seed in the eight-to-11 range, which would send the Nittany Lions on the road to open the 12-team postseason tournament.

Prediction: 10-2

Ryan Snyder

Penn State’s 2024 season will look very different with the addition of multiple West Coast schools to the conference schedule. Add in the start of a new 12-team College Football Playoff, and there are plenty of reasons for fans to be excited.

However, will the results be all that different for Franklin and his program? Penn State would’ve made a 12-team playoff in six of the past eight years, but consistently coming up short against Ohio State and Michigan has left many wondering how competitive the Lions would be even if they were to get their shot. While they won’t have to face the Wolverines this season, road trips to West Virginia, USC and Wisconsin are all potential stumbling blocks.

Add in a home game against Ohio State, and there’s reason to believe that, once again, this is shaping up to be a 10-2 kind of season. I could see this year’s defense taking a small step back after a stellar 2023 season, but the offense should be better. 10-2 would get Penn State into the playoff.

Prediction: 10-2