Transfer portal breakdown: The 10 most impactful quarterback transfers of 2022

Here’s a projection of the 10 most impactful quarterbacks to emerge from the transfer portal this offseason. This is not a measure just of sheer talent. Instead, it’s a mix of a player’s importance, his potential and his expected production this season.

10. Michael Penix Jr., Washington

The particulars: Transfer from Indiana
The skinny: This is a big leap of faith, considering Michael Penix Jr.’s injury history. Penix opened three seasons as Indiana’s starter – but started just 17 games in those three seasons. He suffered a shoulder injury in ’19, an ACL tear in ’20 and another shoulder injury in 2021. Penix was 12-5 as a starter, and was a captain in 2020 and ’21. He also sustained a torn ACL as a backup in 2018. In addition, the Huskies have a two-year starter at quarterback (Dylan Morris) as well as a former five-star prospect (Sam Huard). Still, new Washington coach Kalen DeBoer quickly grabbed a quarterback out of the transfer portal after being hired. DeBoer was Indiana’s OC in 2019; plus, Washington’s new tight ends coach is Nick Sheridan, who was Indiana’s OC the past two seasons. In short, they’re well-acquainted with the best version of Penix. Washington’s offense could’ve qualified for FEMA funds because it was such a disaster the past two seasons. But there is an underrated group of receivers, some solid offensive linemen and running backs who are at least adequate. If Penix stays healthy, he can put up good numbers in DeBoer’s version of the spread – good-enough numbers to help Washington get to a bowl and maybe even eight wins.

9. J.T. Daniels, West Virginia

The particulars: Transfer from Georgia
The skinny: J.T. Daniels didn’t decide on WVU until mid-April, so he needs to get adjusted quick during preseason camp. He hasn’t been a fulltime starter since his freshman season at USC – in 2018. Daniels began the 2019 season as USC’s starter, but was injured in the opener and missed the rest of the year. He transferred to Georgia in 2020 but didn’t see any action until the final four games of the season. Daniels opened the 2021 season as the starter, but was injured and eventually lost his job to Stetson Bennett. Daniels attempted 363 passes at USC in 2018; he has thrown just 247 since. And given that WVU coach Neal Brown is on the hot seat, Daniels needs to hit the ground running (or throwing, actually). The Mountaineers’ offense has been relatively pedestrian during Brown’s three years in charge. Enter a new coordinator, Graham Harrell, who worked with Daniels in 2018. Daniels certainly can spin it, and there is a solid group of receivers. Expect a revved-up offense because of Harrell, and Daniels has the arm and the receivers to throw for 3,000 yards and 25 TDs, which no WVU quarterback has done since Will Grier in 2018.

8. Jayden de Laura, Arizona

The particulars: Transfer from Washington State
The skinny: QB Jayden de Laura’s intraconference move from Washington State to Tucson didn’t get enough attention. De Laura threw for 2,789 yards and 23 TDs in 2021 while leading Washington State to a 7-6 record; he also started in 2020 as a true freshman. He quickly entered the transfer portal after offensive coordinator Eric Morris was hired (more on that in a minute). De Laura’s arrival gives second-year Arizona coach Jedd Fisch, a former NFL offensive coordinator and quarterback coach, a nice building block. Fisch and his staff revamped the offense in the offseason. Arizona’s offense was pitiful last season; the Wildcats didn’t even get to the 20-point mark in 10 games and averaged 17.2 on the season. A huge addition was WR Jacob Cowing from UTEP. He was ninth nationally in 2021 in receiving yards with 1,367; he had 69 receptions and averaged 19.81 yards per catch. The top signee in the freshman class was WR Tetairoa McMillan, an On3 Consensus four-star recruit and a national top-50 prospect. And keep an eye on freshman RBs Jonah Coleman, who had a good spring, and Rayshon Luke, a national top-225 prospect. All of this is to say that defensive problems aside, Arizona figures to be a tough opponent this fall, though a difficult non-conference schedule will make it hard to get to a bowl.

7. Adrian Martinez, Kansas State

The particulars: Transfer from Nebraska
The skinny: Adrian Martinez is a legit dual-threat quarterback with big-play capabilities. Still, while Martinez was a four-year starter for the Huskers, he never truly played like a veteran quarterback even though he set the school career record for total offense. He was mistake-prone as a freshman in 2018 and he was mistake-prone as a fourth-year starter in 2021, finishing his Huskers career with 30 interceptions and 18 lost fumbles. One huge positive: The key guy on offense won’t be Martinez but rather RB Deuce Vaughn. Martinez appeared to be pressing with the Huskers; if he didn’t make a play, Nebraska often was in trouble. With K-State, Vaughn will be the guy who needs to make plays. Indeed, new Wildcats coordinator Collin Klein needs to ride Vaughn like a horse. Perhaps a more relaxed Martinez finally shows all he can do. Nebraska didn’t win more than five games in a season during Martinez’s time as the starter; K-State could win eight or nine this season if Martinez comes through.

6. Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss

The particulars: Transfer from USC
The skinny: This ranking is as much a reflection of Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin as it is of Jaxson Dart, who made three starts for USC last season as a true freshman. While Ole Miss has a new offensive coordinator in Charlie Weis Jr., it’s still Kiffin’s offense and he does a nice job tailoring things to accentuate the positive with his quarterbacks. Dart, who was the No. 3 quarterback for On3 in the 2021 class, certainly can wing it. He started the final three games of the ’21 season for the Trojans and played in six games overall, throwing for 1,353 yards, with nine TDs but also five interceptions. He had two 300-yard outings, including a 391-yard effort early in the season against Washington State after Kedon Slovis was injured in the first quarter. There are talented skill-position players, most notably RB Zach Evans (a transfer portal addition from TCU) and WR Jonathan Mingo, but can Weis (and Kiffin) make sure all the new pieces fit? Dart showed off a good arm and mobility last season, but at times he also displayed questionable decision-making.

5. Cam Ward, Washington State

The particulars: Transfer from Incarnate Word
The skinny: QB Cameron Ward came from FCS member Incarnate Ward with new coordinator Eric Morris, who had been UIW’s coach. Ward threw for 4,648 yards and 46 TDs in 2021 for Incarnate Ward, which went 10-3 and lost in the second round of the FCS playoffs to top-seeded Sam Houston State. Ward threw 70 TD passes in 19 career games with the Cardinals. He likely will have the most passing yards of anyone on this list – and maybe the most TDs, as well – but he also is playing for a team that has a lot of holes. Still, a high-flying offense should mean a bowl bid. Washington State, Texas Tech and Mississippi State figure to be the top three Power 5 teams, in some sort of order, in pass attempts. All three play-callers are off the Mike Leach tree: There’s Leach himself at Mississippi State, Morris with the Cougars and Zach Kittley at Texas Tech.

4. Spencer Rattler, South Carolina

The particulars: Transfer from Oklahoma
The skinny: Last year at this time, Spencer Rattler was being hyped as a top Heisman contender and a potential No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. Instead, he’s looking to rebuild his career after entering the transfer portal. Rattler will work with a solid group of receivers. WR Josh Vann and TE Jahiem Bell played well late last season, and newcomers Antwane Wells Jr. and Corey Rucker, wide receivers who transferred from James Madison and Arkansas State, respectively, and Austin Stogner, a tight end from Oklahoma, also were nice additions. Rattler has the arm talent and is mobile; his decision-making and accuracy cost him his starting job with OU, and he’ll be operating behind a line that could exacerbate those issues. Still, he was the On3 Consensus No. 1 quarterback recruit in the 2019 class for a reason. If he can regain his 2020 form, the Gamecocks could finish second in the SEC East. Still, there are questions. Remember that Rattler struggled in a Lincoln Riley-coached offense. There now is a ton of pressure on Gamecocks OC Marcus Satterfield. Will Rattler and Satterfield work well together, and will the offense produce?

3. Quinn Ewers, Texas

The particulars: Transfer from Ohio State
The skinny: There are massive expectations for Quinn Ewers, who hasn’t taken an important snap in almost two years. The last time he saw appreciable time in a real game was the finale in his junior year of high school in 2020. He skipped his senior year of high school in the Dallas suburbs to enroll a year early at Ohio State; the extent of his playing time last season was two handoffs in a rout of Michigan State. Ewers was the nation’s top overall prospect in the 2021 class in the On3 Consensus and has a big-time arm. He also gets to work with big-time weapons in RB Bijan Robinson and WRs Xavier Worthy and Isaiah Neyor (a transfer from Wyoming). Coach Steve Sarkisian’s offense is quarterback-friendly; the thought here is Ewers takes full advantage. Growing pains could be steep in Game 2 against Alabama, but he’s too talented to struggle for long.

2. Dillon Gabriel, Oklahoma

The particulars: Transfer from UCF
The skinny: Oklahoma lost QBs Caleb Williams and Spencer Rattler to the transfer portal, but Dillon Gabriel will be a great fit in OU’s new offense. Expect the Sooners to continue to put up big offensive numbers as they look to win the Big 12 for the seventh time in eight seasons. OU’s new OC is Jeff Lebby, who held the same role at UCF in 2019, when Gabriel threw for 3,653 yards, 29 TDs and seven picks as a true freshman. In 2020, Gabriel led the nation in passing at 357.0 yards per game; he threw 32 TD passes and just four interceptions. Gabriel throws a nice deep ball and has good mobility. Expect Lebby to sprinkle in a few facets of Ole Miss’ offense; he was the Rebels’ play-caller the past two seasons.

1. Caleb Williams, USC

The particulars: Transfer from Oklahoma
The skinny: Caleb Williams was the top player in the transfer portal this cycle, and his presence is the reason that USC – despite its defensive flaws – could win the Pac-12 this season. Williams threw for 1,912 yards and 21 TDs and also rushed for 435 yards and six scores last season; in the seven games he started, he showed off a special playmaking ability and a ton of sheer athletic talent. One of the bigger storylines this season will be how he does in his second year in Lincoln Riley’s offense. The bet here is he does quite well and becomes a legitimate Heisman contender because of his production, not just his name.