Can less-acclaimed QB transfers this year match what less-acclaimed QB transfers did in 2022?

There are two ways to look at quarterback Brennan Armstrong’s recent commitment to North Carolina State out of the transfer portal.

The prevailing thought: All but one of the “good” quarterbacks in the portal is gone. The other? Hey, who’s to say that a handful of the … ahem … less-acclaimed quarterbacks won’t become standouts next season.

The top three quarterbacks in the portal were Devin Leary, Armstrong and Sam Hartman. Each left an ACC program, and each has chosen a new school. Armstrong remains in the ACC with NC State, where he again will work with offensive coordinator Robert Anae. Anae was Virginia’s OC in 2021 before leaving for one season at Syracuse. Leary committed to Kentucky and Hartman to Notre Dame. All had phenomenal 2021 seasons, then relatively disappointing 2022s. Hartman does leave Wake as the No. 2 passer in ACC history and No. 1 in the league in TD passes.

The highest-rated quarterback currently in the portal is Spencer Sanders (6-1, 210), who was a four-year starter at Oklahoma State. He is No. 2 in school history in total offense at 11,509 yards and second with 9,553 passing yards. In addition, Sanders threw 67 TD passes, which is third in Cowboys history. But he also was mistake-prone (he threw 40 picks) and inconsistent (for one, he never completed better than 62.8 percent of his passes and was at 57.6 percent this season). In short, he’s not a sure thing.

Caleb Williams garnered the most attention out of the portal last year and it was deserved: Hey, he won the Heisman. But Quinn Ewers, Spencer Rattler and Jaxson Dart also received a lot of attention, and none had high-level seasons. Heck, Dart may not even keep his job; Ole Miss is one of the schools most heavily pursuing Sanders.

Instead, relative portal afterthoughts like Michael Penix Jr., Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels put together monster seasons at Washington, Oregon and LSU, respectively. And some highly productive Group of 5 quarterbacks this season came out of the portal. But it’s doubtful that even the most ardent college football fan knew much about Austin Reed when he announced he was transferring to Western Kentucky or Kyle Vantrease when he picked Georgia Southern or Todd Centeio when he picked James Madison. Reed led the nation in passing yards; Vantrease was fifth. Centeio was 13^th in total offense.

Penix always was hurt at Indiana. Nix was Mr. Inconsistent at Auburn. Daniels never seemed to get appreciably better during his three years at Arizona State. But one overlooked aspect was each had had pockets of success at Power 5 schools. In that vein, maybe the decisions by Phil Jurkovec (from Boston College to Pitt), Graham Mertz (Wisconsin to Florida) and Jeff Sims (Georgia Tech to Nebraska) will be more important than originally believed.

Can Phil Jurkovec find success?

Jurkovec (6-5, 215), a Pittsburgh-area native, was a four-star prospect and an On3 Consensus national top-100 player in the 2018 signing class. He signed with Notre Dame, but attempted just 18 passes in two seasons with the Irish.

He moved on to Boston College after the 2019 season, then played well for the Eagles in 2020 with Frank Cignetti Jr. as his offensive coordinator. Jurkovec threw for 2,558 yards, 17 TDs and five interceptions that season, with a completion percentage of 61 percent. He played well despite a BC rushing attack that managed just 101.7 yards per game.

Bigger things were expected in 2021, but Jurkovec got hurt in Game 2. He missed almost two months with a hand injury, then struggled when he returned for the final four games: He was 33-of-68 (48.5 percent) for 589 yards, with four TDs and four picks in that span. In short, he was rusty, which was to be expected for a guy who missed almost two months.

He didn’t really bounce back this season under new coordinator John McNulty. Part of that was because the offensive line could neither pass block nor open holes for the running game. BC averaged a nation’s-worst 63.3 rushing yards per game; the yards-per-carry average was an other-worldly bad 2.09. Jurkovec missed the final four games with a knee injury. He finished 2022 with 1,711 passing yards, 11 touchdowns, eight interceptions and a 59.5 completion percentage. Jurkovec entered the transfer portal a few days after the season ended.

Now he is at Pitt, where he will be reunited with Cignetti. Cignetti left BC for Pitt after the 2021 season.

The Panthers, as with BC, would prefer to run the ball. The difference is that at Pitt, Jurkovec should benefit from a solid offensive line that will, indeed, be able to pass block and provide running room. Pitt did not throw the ball all that well in 2022. Part of that is because the rushing attack was potent. Another reason: Quarterback Kedon Slovis wasn’t all that accurate (58.4 completion percentage) and was mistake-prone (10 TD passes, nine picks). Jurkovec chose Pitt on December 5 – the same day Slovis entered the transfer portal (Slovis is headed to BYU).

If Jurkovec can regain his 2020 form under Cignetti, Pitt will be in the running for the ACC Coastal Division title.

Can Graham Mertz finally live up to any of his hype?

Mertz was the highest-ranked quarterback recruit in Wisconsin history. He was a four-star prospect and an On3 Consensus national top-60 recruit in the 2019 class. Mertz was the No. 4 quarterback in the class – and, interestingly, the three guys ahead of him transferred last year (Rattler, Nix and Daniels).

Mertz never came close to living up to the hype with the Badgers. He leaves with 5,405 passing yards, 38 touchdowns, 26 interceptions and a 59.5 percent completion rate. But one almost one-third of his career TDs total came in just three games: He threw five in his first career start against a two-win Illinois team in 2020, another five this season against a one-win Northwestern team and three this season against New Mexico State.

Mertz backed up Jack Coan as a true freshman. Coan transferred to Notre Dame after the 2019 season and Mertz ascended to the starting job in 2020. Because of COVID, Wisconsin played just seven games that season and Mertz played like a first-year starter. He threw for 1,238 yards, seven touchdowns and five interceptions in the Badgers’ run-heavy offense, completing 61.1 percent of his passes.

More was expected in 2021 – but less was delivered. Mertz completed 59.5 percent of his passes for 1,958 yards, 10 touchdowns and 11 picks. Wisconsin went 9-4. In the four losses, Mertz was especially bad: 69-of-131 (52.7 percent), 711 yards, two touchdowns, seven interceptions.

Bobby Engram was brought in from the NFL (he had been the Baltimore Ravens’ receivers coach) as offensive coordinator after the 2021 season, and Mertz threw a career-high 19 TD passes. But eight of those came in two games, and he also threw 10 interceptions and completed 57.3 percent of his passes. Still, he did not play in imaginative offenses and he had different offensive coordinators in each of his final three seasons with the Badgers.

Florida signed four-star quarterback Jaden Rashada during the early signing period. He is expected to enroll early and will go through spring practice. But given the vast experience difference – the SEC isn’t exactly a great place for a true freshman quarterback – Mertz seems likely to at least open the season as the Gators’ starter. As with Wisconsin, Florida’s offense is geared to the run. But the Gators still attempted 366 passes this season. Mertz’s single-season high for pass attempts at Wisconsin was 286 this season.

One positive: While Mertz struggled with his accuracy with the Badgers, he still had a higher completion percentage in his worst season (57.3) than departed Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson had this season (54.3). Still, there’s no way Florida should count on Mertz to win games. Instead, he needs to be a caretaker type. That means hitting open receivers (something Richardson struggled to do) and avoiding mistakes (again, something Richardson struggled to do). Given his performance in “big” games at Wisconsin, there are legit questions as to whether Mertz can do that.

Will Jeff Sims’ transfer turn around his career?

Like Jurkovec and Mertz, Sims is a former four-star prospect; he was a national top-275 recruit in the 2020 signing class. But unlike those two guys, Sims never had a chance to ease into the job. Instead, he was thrown right into the fray, starting 10 games as a true freshman despite not being truly ready to start.

In addition, the 2020 season saw Tech move away from the triple-option offense after there was a shortened spring because of COVID. That means a quarterback who wasn’t ready to start was doing so for a unit mostly featuring players recruited for a different style of offense – and they hadn’t had much practice in the new offense. It wasn’t pretty for Sims or Tech, which finished 3-7. Sims threw for 1,881 yards, with 13 TDs but also 13 interceptions. He completed just 54.9 percent of his passes. There were four games in which he hit on 50 percent or less of his attempts. Sims was an effective runner, though, rushing for 492 yards and six TDs.

Injuries limited him to six starts in 2021. He threw for 1,468 yards, 12 TDs and seven picks, and saw his completion percentage climb to 60.1 percent. He again was effective as a runner (371 yards, four TDs).

Tech changed coordinators after the 2021 season, with Chip Long (who came from Tulane after the Green Wave’s 2-10 finish) taking over for Dave Patenaude. Sims struggled before suffering a foot injury in Game 7 against Virginia. He didn’t play again and finished with 1,115 yards, five TDs and three interceptions while completing 58.5 percent of his passes. Sims again showed the ability to do some damage on the ground, though, rushing for 292 yards and a TD.

Sims suffered at Tech because of the lack of surrounding talent and a lack of cohesion in the offense. Still, he is seventh in school history in both passing yards and total offense. It’ll be interesting to see how Sims fits at Nebraska. New coach Matt Rhule hired Marcus Satterfield away from South Carolina to be offensive coordinator.

Satterfield’s offenses in his two seasons with the Gamecocks were nothing special. But there was a glaring lack of talent at quarterback for the Gamecocks in 2021. It took Rattler a while to get acclimated in 2022, but he finished the season blazing hot. In their final three games, the Gamecocks went 2-1 against three ranked teams (wins over Tennessee and Clemson and a bowl loss to Notre Dame). In those contests, Rattler was 84-of-122 (68.8 percent) for 1,044 yards, 10 TDs and three interceptions.

How quickly can Sims get acclimated to Satterfield and vice versa? Sims’ running ability is a big positive, and he presumably won’t be tasked with shouldering as much of the offensive load. But unlike with Jurkovec and Mertz, it’s not necessarily a given that Sims is “the guy.” Starter Casey Thompson (himself a former transfer) returns, though shoulder surgery means he will miss the spring. In that regard, Sims will have a leg up in terms of learning the new offense.

Hey, it seems unlikely Jurkovec, Mertz and/or Sims can have huge impacts in 2023. Then again, what was expected of Daniels, Nix and Penix in 2022?