Transfers to watch in quests for a College Football Playoff berth

The first set of College Football Playoff rankings come out Tuesday, November 1, meaning we’re two weeks’ worth of games away from seeing what the committee thinks.

Of course, that hasn’t stopped anyone from speculating on what the four-team field will look like, and we’re going to do some speculating ourselves. But this speculation focuses on transfers who are going to play a significant role in whether their team makes the Playoff.

And as prevalent as key transfers have been this season, there’s one important point to bring up: While Clemson, Georgia and Ohio State have transfers on their rosters, none truly play a key role. And right now, at least, those three teams are in the thick of the playoff hunt.

But everybody else seeking a CFP spot does have a key transfer or two – or three or four or … you get the idea. We’ve chosen to break this into two categories: The obvious transfer who must come through as well as the not-so-obvious.

We already mentioned the three CFP hopefuls without a key transfer. We’re going to spotlight eight CFP hopefuls that do.

The obvious

+ Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart: Dart, who transferred from USC in the offseason, has not played a big role in the Rebels’ 7-0 start, certainly not compared with the impact Matt Corral had last season. Dart has been steady, though, and has provided a running threat for the best rushing attack in the nation. But the schedule toughens noticeably the rest of the way, beginning this week at LSU. If the running game is slowed by the better defenses Ole Miss will see the rest of the way, Dart potentially will need to win games with his arm. At this point, there’s a question as to whether he can do so.

+ Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker: The Vols are unbeaten and ranked third, and Hooker is squarely in the Heisman race. At various points this season, Tennessee has struggled defensively, struggled in pass protection and struggled to run. But Hooker always has come through, especially in the clutch. The Vols can withstand mediocre performances at other positions – but not at quarterback.

+ Oregon QB Bo Nix: The Ducks were blasted by Georgia in their opener, but haven’t lost since. And if they beat visiting UCLA on Saturday, they become the team to beat in the Pac-12. Nix has raised his level of play this season compared to what it was the past three seasons at Auburn. Well, let’s rephrase that: He has raised his level of consistency. He did some great things at Auburn, but also made a bunch of mistakes and flat-out bad plays. That hasn’t happened at Oregon. Nix has completed at least 72 percent of his passes in four of the Ducks’ six games; he didn’t do that in more than three games in any season at Auburn. He has rushed for eight TDs; he didn’t have more than seven in any season with the Tigers. And he’s on pace to put up about 3,700 yards of total offense; he didn’t reach 3,000 once at Auburn. In short, he’s playing well and that has to continue, beginning Saturday.

+ Syracuse QB Garrett Shrader: Yes, it seems like an extreme long shot and, yes, any Orange hopes for a Playoff berth could be dashed Saturday at Clemson. But if Syracuse finishes unbeaten, it will be in the CFP (it will have beaten, among others, Clemson, Florida State, NC State, Notre Dame, Pitt, Purdue and Wake Forest, not to mention winning the ACC title game). Anyway, Shrader has become an effective passer this season and now is a true dual-threat quarterback following the arrival of new offensive coordinator Robert Anae. Shrader’s averaging 289.0 yards of total offense per game and has accounted for 17 TDs. Syracuse has one of the nation’s best running backs in Sean Tucker, and WR Oronde Gadsden Jr. has emerged as one of the best in the ACC. But Shrader makes the offense go.

The not-so-obvious

+ UCLA WR Jake Bobo: RB Zach Charbonnet also is a transfer, and he and QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson are a devastating duo in the backfield. But the Bruins’ offense really got cranking in the past two games when Bobo – who is a Duke transfer – emerged as a threat on the outside. He caught nine passes for 164 yards and four TDs in wins over Washington and Utah – games in which the Bruins totaled 84 points. He’s a big target (listed at 6 feet 5, 215 pounds) who had 74 receptions last season at Duke, so he’s used to a heavy workload. If the Bruins can pair their rushing attack with a truly dangerous passing attack – watch out.

+ Michigan C Olusegun Oluwatimi: Oluwatimi certainly wasn’t an under-the-radar transfer, as he was one of the finalists for the Rimington Award – given to the nation’s top center – last season at Virginia. But he has fit in seamlessly, and the line may be playing even better than it did last season, when it won the Joe Moore Award as the nation’s best. It helps that Michigan has two high-level running backs, but averaging 5.77 yards per carry is an indication that the line is doing an impressive job paving the way. And the Wolverines run equally effectively right up the middle as they do when they run wide. That’s a reflection of the job Oluwatimi is doing.

+ TCU defenders: The Horned Frogs’ defense certainly is no juggernaut – TCU is allowing 26.5 points, 400.0 yards and 5.5 yards per play, though it does have a plus-four turnover margin. But when coupled with a high-powered offense, it has played well enough to get TCU to 6-0. The top two tacklers are transfers: LB Johnny Hodges (from Navy) and S Mark Perry (from Colorado). Two other starters are transfers, too: E Dylan Horton (New Mexico) and CB Josh Newton (ULM). In addition, two key backup linemen arrived via the portal: E Caleb Fox (Stephen F. Austin) and T Tymon Mitchell (Georgia). In short, TCU needs a half-dozen transfers to continue to play well on defense each week.

+ Alabama wide receivers: Conventional wisdom was that Jermaine Burton (a transfer from Georgia) and Tyler Harrell (from Louisville) would become the Tide’s go-to guy and a legit deep threat, respectively. It hasn’t happened – at least not yet. Burton has struggled to play a key role: He has 18 receptions and three touchdowns. And because of an injury, Harrell has yet to play. It took a while, but the Tide now is getting huge contributions from RB Jahmyr Gibbs, a transfer from Georgia Tech. Can one of the receivers finally emerge as a consistent contributor? Alabama’s leading receiver seven games into the season is … Gibbs, with 27 catches. That’s not ideal.