Yeah, from the replays shown on BTN, I'm surprised they overturned the call on the ice.
2024-25 PSU Men's Ice Hockey Thread
- Thread starter Tom McAndrew
- Start date
Yeah, from the replays shown on BTN, I'm surprised they overturned the call on the ice.
What is it looking like at this point? I had thought there was indication that beating Michigan put us in a really good spot…is that no longer the case?
We are still in good shape. I think there are still 4 conferences where a team not in top 16 PW could win their tournaments. Maybe we are locked in 100%. Michigan definitely needs to worry way more.
For those interested:
PSU has an 85% chance of making the NCAA field as an at-large team.
There are six conferences with autobids.
B1G: Sparty-OSU
NCHC: Arizona St., NoDak, Western Michigan are in the semis, Denver/Colorado College will be the fourth
Hockey East: Maine, Boston U, UConn, Northeastern are in semis. (NE pulled huge upset, taking out top rated BC)
CCHA: Minnesota State clinched autobid (St.Thomas is ineligible for NCAA, will play MSU for conference title only)
Atlantic Hockey: Holy Cross-Bentley for the title
ECAC: Quinnipiac, Cornell, Dartmouth, Clarkson/Harvard will play in semis
There are 12 teams in the field currently via autobids or PW rating:
BC
Sparty *
Maine*
Minnesota
Western Michigan*
Boston U*
UConn*
Providence
OSU*
Denver*
UMass
Minny St (already clinched autobid)
That leaves four slots available.
Quinnipiac needs to win ECAC to get in. That will be a one-bid league. Q only has 46% chance at at-large bid.
Of the teams alive for at-large bids, here are their % chances to make the field:
PSU: 85%
Quinnipiac: 46%
Michigan: 27%
The above schools will see those percentages rise or fall based on two games today: Denver-CC and Harvard-Clarkson.
Denver will get in based on PW rating. If they win, that removes the possibility of CC stealing the NCHC autobid.
So, in essence, with ECAC being a one-bid league, and Atlantic Hockey also being a one-bid league, that means TWO at-large spots are available. Those COULD disappear if teams without at-large hopes win their conference tourneys. There are only two conference tourneys where that can happen: Hockey East and NCHC. (That's why the big NE upset of BC mattered. IF BC had won, PSU would likely already be in.)
Best case scenario for PSU: Maine/BU/UConn eliminates NE.
NCHC is 50/50. Denver needs to win today. If they do, 2/4 in semis have bids sewn up (WMU and Denver). If they don't, NCHC becomes 25/75, with only WMU guaranteed a spot going up against ASU, NoDak and CC in the semis.
Rooting interests:
Denver today
Maine vs NE in Hockey East semis
Cannot have NoDak/ASU win NCHC AND NE win Hockey East. That is the scenario that leaves PSU at home.
PSU seeding possibilities:
12: 19%
13: 67%
14: 14%
Hope this helps. I still like our chances (UM needs 0 bids stolen at this point), but I understand how some people, real or fictional, prefer to never be told the odds.
That helps tremendously...thanks for taking the time to spell it out!
What is interesting is that in OC games earlier in the season, the B1G held their own in matchups with good teams.
Hard to tell which conference has improved the most since then.
Still some really good teams in other conferences, but feel this year Frozen Four spots and NC are up for grabs.
Hard to tell which conference has improved the most since then.
Still some really good teams in other conferences, but feel this year Frozen Four spots and NC are up for grabs.
Penn State men's hockey falls in USCHO poll
Penn State has moved down in the USCHO poll.
Penn State's Aiden Fink announced top 10 Hobey Baker Award finalist
Aiden Fink's career season didn't go unrecognized.
Congratulations to Aiden Fink, Penn State's first ever Hobey Baker finalist.
And kudos to Mac Gadowsky, who also is a finalist.
And kudos to Mac Gadowsky, who also is a finalist.
First bullet dodged as Maine eliminates Northeastern deep into 2OT.
Need Denver and WMU to win in NCHC semis to ensure our run continues.
Need Denver and WMU to win in NCHC semis to ensure our run continues.
Denver knocks out Arizona State. Looking good for PSU so far!
Quinnipiac just lost in ECAC semis. With that loss, the PW is updated and PSU is .0002 ahead of them. We shall see how the PW probability matrix looks when it updates.
And Denver just went up two with an empty netter. That bullet has been dodged.
UPDATE: PW probability has us at 91 percent in.
PW update now has us .0001 ahead of Q. I suspect they may jump us depending on other mathematical factors, such as ultimate ECAC winner, SOS, and their head-to-head win vs. PSU. @LionJim could probably crack the code, but the maths are beyond me.
And, FWIW, Michiganistan is out.
And Denver just went up two with an empty netter. That bullet has been dodged.
UPDATE: PW probability has us at 91 percent in.
PW update now has us .0001 ahead of Q. I suspect they may jump us depending on other mathematical factors, such as ultimate ECAC winner, SOS, and their head-to-head win vs. PSU. @LionJim could probably crack the code, but the maths are beyond me.
And, FWIW, Michiganistan is out.
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I was just coming here to say Q list and Denver won. Good outcomes.
I think Michigan is going to be first team out as both the ECAC and AHA AQs are outside top 16.
Western Michigan potted an empty netter with 1:54 to go. NoDak gets a goal with :50 left. Then WMU pots another empty netter with :24 left.
With apologies to Billy Joel, we're playing in Allentown!
With apologies to Billy Joel, we're playing in Allentown!
Moving on to the NCAA Tournament...
PSU has 53% chance at 12 seed, 47 percent chance at 13 seed. (Quinnipiac is exact opposite percentages for the same seedings.)
PSU is guaranteed to be in Allentown by virtue of being a host.
The one seeds, I believe, are guaranteed the closest regional to their campus, relative to other one seeds. Finally, the committee can make tweaks to avoid matchups of teams from same conference in the first round and to benefit attendance.
The four regionals are:
Allentown
(Holy) Toledo
Manchester, NH
Fargo, ND
The one seeds are:
BC (Manchester, NH)
Sparty (Toledo)
Maine (Allentown)
WMU/Gophers (Fargo)
The committee would really like Minny to get a one seed via Denver winning NCHC, and have them boost the gate in Fargo, I'm sure.
The two seeds are likely:
WMU/Minny
UConn
BU
Providence/tOSU/Denver (one of)
The three seeds are likely:
Providence/tOSU/Denver (two of)
UMass
PSU/Quinnipiac
The four seeds are likely:
PSU/Q
Minny State
Holy Cross/Bentley winner
Clarkson/Cornell winner
Q would move above us in most scenarios, especially if Cornell wins the ECAC. Conversely, PSU is a three seed if Clarkson wins. The only real difference would be if the bracket is tweaked, and would influence if PSU has to pack the white home jerseys or can just pack blue.
My attempt to fill the bracket using NCAA guidelines, parameters and guesswork:
Allentown:
1) Maine
2) BU
3) PSU
4) Quinnipiac
Manchester:
1) BC
2) Providence
3) tOSU
4) Holy Cross/Bentley
Toledo:
1) Sparty
2) UConn
3) UMass
4) Clarkson/Cornell
Fargo:
1) WMU
2) Minny
3) Denver
4) Minny State
As usual, the ones and fours are easy to figure (pending the NCHC title game), and the twos and threes are a jumble. With six Hockey East teams, and several in the 2/3 range, it might not be possible to avoid a conference matchup in the first round.
However it happens, we are in the field. Two wins to St. Louis, four to a title.
PSU has 53% chance at 12 seed, 47 percent chance at 13 seed. (Quinnipiac is exact opposite percentages for the same seedings.)
PSU is guaranteed to be in Allentown by virtue of being a host.
The one seeds, I believe, are guaranteed the closest regional to their campus, relative to other one seeds. Finally, the committee can make tweaks to avoid matchups of teams from same conference in the first round and to benefit attendance.
The four regionals are:
Allentown
(Holy) Toledo
Manchester, NH
Fargo, ND
The one seeds are:
BC (Manchester, NH)
Sparty (Toledo)
Maine (Allentown)
WMU/Gophers (Fargo)
The committee would really like Minny to get a one seed via Denver winning NCHC, and have them boost the gate in Fargo, I'm sure.
The two seeds are likely:
WMU/Minny
UConn
BU
Providence/tOSU/Denver (one of)
The three seeds are likely:
Providence/tOSU/Denver (two of)
UMass
PSU/Quinnipiac
The four seeds are likely:
PSU/Q
Minny State
Holy Cross/Bentley winner
Clarkson/Cornell winner
Q would move above us in most scenarios, especially if Cornell wins the ECAC. Conversely, PSU is a three seed if Clarkson wins. The only real difference would be if the bracket is tweaked, and would influence if PSU has to pack the white home jerseys or can just pack blue.
My attempt to fill the bracket using NCAA guidelines, parameters and guesswork:
Allentown:
1) Maine
2) BU
3) PSU
4) Quinnipiac
Manchester:
1) BC
2) Providence
3) tOSU
4) Holy Cross/Bentley
Toledo:
1) Sparty
2) UConn
3) UMass
4) Clarkson/Cornell
Fargo:
1) WMU
2) Minny
3) Denver
4) Minny State
As usual, the ones and fours are easy to figure (pending the NCHC title game), and the twos and threes are a jumble. With six Hockey East teams, and several in the 2/3 range, it might not be possible to avoid a conference matchup in the first round.
However it happens, we are in the field. Two wins to St. Louis, four to a title.
With the Cornell victory, it appears there are no other scenarios where PSU can be a three seed.
It appears likely we are the four seed and it also seems likely we will be playing Maine (Remember them?) on Friday. Just need to hear what time, but think the top seed usually plays the nightcap.
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Second game in Allentown on Friday night vs Maine (Remember them?) 8:30
Other side of the region is UConn-Quinnipiac. 5:00
Other side of the region is UConn-Quinnipiac. 5:00
What's the excitement level for Penn State fans? Seems like the team has been playing tournament level hockey for the last month or so. I won't be surprised if you are in the Frozen Four.
I think our region is up for grabs. Four quality teams. Our guys need to start quick and need solid G play as well.
Really wanted to make it over and Thur/Sat would have allowed it. Can’t do Fri/Sunday.
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Penn State men’s hockey’s Carter Schade ruled out for the remainder of the season
A key part of Penn State’s defense core has been ruled out for the season.