Analysis: CFP Rankings

615dawg

Well-known member
Jun 4, 2007
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Yesterday's CFP Ranked losers

#8 Oklahoma
#11 Texas A&M
#16 NC State
#17 Auburn
#19 Purdue

I feel like Auburn and Purdue will drop out, and possibly NC State. So there are going to be three openings unless the committee punishes UTSA for struggling with Southern Miss.

Here are the 6-4 or better teams (9-1 if G5) coming off a win.

Mississippi State (6-4, 4-3 SEC)
Kentucky (7-3, 5-3 SEC)
Houston (9-1, 7-0 American)
Clemson (7-3, 5-2 ACC)
Kansas State (7-3, 4-3 Big 12)
Texas Tech (6-4, 3-4 Big 12)
Oregon State (6-4, 4-3 Pac 12)
Arizona State (7-3, 5-2 Pac 12)
Louisiana (9-1, 7-0 Sun Belt)

I think Houston gets in as an insurance policy in case Cincy and San Diego State fall. Houston is likely the American champ if its not Cincy, and the committee does not want UTSA in a NY6 situation. I don't think Louisiana gets in.

Then there are some head to head eliminations. Obviously, State beat Kentucky so Kentucky isn't getting in over State.
Oregon State and Arizona State play each other this weekend. I think ASU would get the nod, but the committee may hold off on both of them and wait for a winner.
Kansas State gets in over Texas Tech with the +1 in overall and conference record and the head to head win.

So for 1-2 spots you have

Mississippi State with 4 highly regarded wins and coming off a win over #17.
Clemson with their pedigree as of late and have quietly strung together some wins over bad teams.
Kansas State, with no bad losses but 0-3 against ranked teams.
Arizona State, who has already lost to Utah but could still win the Pac 12 South.

Who gets in? As I have opined - I think its important that we get in this week and try to get within 10 spots of Ole Miss pre-Egg Bowl.
 
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615dawg

Well-known member
Jun 4, 2007
5,461
1,048
113
Here's how I think it looks Tuesday:

1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. Oregon
4. Ohio State
5. Michigan
6. Cincy
7. Michigan State
8. Notre Dame
9. Oklahoma State
10. Baylor
11. Ole Miss
12. Wake Forest
13. Oklahoma
14. BYU
15. Wisconsin
16. Iowa
17. Pittsburgh
18. Texas A&M
19. San Diego State
20. Utah
21. Arkansas
22. Clemson
23. UTSA
24. Mississippi State
25. NC State

I've italicized the teams directly in front of us that have very losable games next week.

Wake plays Clemson
Pitt plays Virginia
Utah plays Oregon
Arkansas plays Alabama
UTSA plays UAB

One of those will definitely happen, with two more highly likely. The goal is to get to No. 21 before the Egg Bowl so that beating Ole Miss would give us a realistic shot at ending up ranked higher than Ole Miss (e.g. Ole Miss drops to 17 after a loss and we move up to 16 after that win).

If both Alabama and Georgia make the playoff, the next highest ranked SEC team will play the highest non-playoff Big 12 team in the Sugar Bowl.
 
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Smoked Toag

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Jul 15, 2021
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I really, REALLY want to see the Georgia/Cincy matchup. Let's end this debate once and for all. Got to suck for Notre Dame, as Cincy has essentially taken their spot. So here's to Georgia not screwing up in 3 weeks in Atlanta. Get rid of Alabama so there will be some interest again.

On the other side, hoping for Oregon vs. Michigan. Michigan just for some new blood, tired of tOSU.
 
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