And then there were four

Nittering Nabob

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Sep 17, 2024
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I would say yes. Ohio state is peaking and I don't think a lack of bye would have made any difference for Oregon.

Boise was outmatched but still outgained psu as an 11 pt dog.

ASU was a 13 pt dog, outgained Texas substantially and was a hair away from winning.

Georgia outgained ND but overall was a pretty even game. the game was decided essentially on 3 plays - 2 turnovers and a kick return.
A question for you.

In your game modeling, how much do turnovers equate to in terms of yardage? Total yardage, like time of possession, can be misleading.
 
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Grant Green

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Oct 12, 2021
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A question for you.

In your game modeling, how much do turnovers equate to in terms of yardage? Total yardage, like time of possession, can be misleading. Does anyone keep track of "yards after turnovers"?
First, I don't do any modeling. I make power ratings and then handicap based on injuries, match ups, etc.

There is no yardage equivalent to turnovers that I am aware of. However, someone told me years ago that a turnover is worth about 5 points. After reviewing many many box scores, I've found this to be generally true.

Example. Total yards and ypp were pretty even between psu and bsu but there was a turnover margin of 3. Add 15 pts to bsu score and it's 31-29. More reflective of the yardage. It doesn't always work, but often gets pretty close.
 
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step.eng69

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Not sure how ND is going to score points (even if PSU is slightly depleted on D). Not seeing it.
Maybe.....DESIRE
They are well tuned into aggressive play on both sides of the line. ND has an outstanding offensive line from their early development this yr to current.
 
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BVSt.Paul

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Oct 12, 2021
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I would say yes. Ohio state is peaking and I don't think a lack of bye would have made any difference for Oregon.

Boise was outmatched but still outgained psu as an 11 pt dog.

ASU was a 13 pt dog, outgained Texas substantially and was a hair away from winning.

Georgia outgained ND but overall was a pretty even game. the game was decided essentially on 3 plays - 2 turnovers and a kick return.
….and the dumb **** walkon who got in the way of an official.
 

rudedude

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Marshall2323

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ND looks like a Wisconsin/Iowa/Minnesota team. Control the ball, play hard defense, don’t beat yourself. This coach seems to add a little trickiness now and then and they like to gamble on 4th down to try and keep field position in their favor. If the PSU online is clicking, we can score.
Accurate but put the best OL and DLfrom the 3 you mentioned...on one team...
They have a front 7 that can smother offenses and that doesn't appear "flashy."
To me this is an old fashioned type 1 score game unless one team gets the turnover bug. Everything starts up front and they are talented and tough.
 
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olelion

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Oct 31, 2021
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Not a single team with a bye won, though two of those were heavy underdogs. Something in common: they all started slow on offense.
Nick Saban on one of his interviews before the playoffs said the very worst thing about a bye is no tackling at game speed. He stated that was the biggest thing in slow starts after a bye. Evidence seemed to support that claim.
 
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Blair10

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Nittany Lions are the only final four team without a transfer QB, plus Franklin has only had 4 starting QBs in his tenure at PSU, unheard of in today’s game.
Hack Trace, Cliff, and Drew.

Actually there have been 5 starting QBs during the Franklin era. Levis started one game during the 2020 season.
 

84lion

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Not a single team with a bye won, though two of those were heavy underdogs. Something in common: they all started slow on offense.
Yep. And now Penn State is the 2nd highest ranked/seeded team remaining in the playoff. I think the rankings were pretty good but the seeding needs to be tweaked. And go to 16 teams and eliminate byes.
 
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rudedude

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Actually there have been 5 starting QBs during the Franklin era. Levis started one game during the 2020 season.
He doesn’t count, he didn’t start the season but was a sub due to Cliff turnovers and then he did the same thing.
 
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Moogy

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Nov 23, 2021
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When Texas gets smoked by O$U and the sec is out completely, will Paul Finebaum spontaneously combust?
Finebaum talked about how, if it was a Texas receiver and an ASU tackler, Texas would have gotten that targeting call upheld, because the SEC benefits from favoritism by officials, so not sure he's the SEC shill you think he is.
 

IrishHerb

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Oct 13, 2021
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No conference champion survived. Is a bye worth it.
In this case, no. It has been at least 2 weeks from their conf. championship games to their first playoff game, and in that time I think a lot of teams loose a bit of their sharpness
 

Tri-Power65

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Finebaum talked about how, if it was a Texas receiver and an ASU tackler, Texas would have gotten that targeting call upheld, because the SEC benefits from favoritism by officials, so not sure he's the SEC shill you think he is.
 
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