Baseball Nonconference SOS (rant)

[Go Budaw]

I don’t know why we continue to do this to ourselves year after year. Yes, we struggled out if the gate a bit this year. Yes, we have numerous weaknesses after multiple injuries have decimated the roster, and many of our big bats have been slow to get going. That being said, anyone who has watched us play the last two weekends can logically conclude that we are, at worst, on even footing with Auburn and LSU….two teams that are currently ranked. But while those two are comfortably in the tournament, we are on the outside looking in thanks to an awful nonconference SOS pulling our RPI down like a boat anchor.

In terms of nonconference SOS, we are currently checking in at #243, which is 12th in the SEC. For comparison, #11 in the SEC is #180. And that’s just considering currently played opponents….we still have two absolute stinkers left against JSU and UNA, and another against Samford that ain’t all that great either. We have 9 out of 26 nonconference games (35%) against RPI 240+ teams….and the worst part is that all of them were 100% guaranteed to be in that range before the year started. For comparison, our opponent this weekend Auburn only plays 4 such teams. We continue to schedule these awful SWAC teams, UT Martin / UNA, and northeast **** schools like it’s going out of style.

And while I very much disagree with the emphasis the committee places on RPI, they’ve proven year after year that its a massive factor for everything when deciding national seeds, host sites, and who makes the field in general. That’s just the landscape we have to navigate, and we’re doing a ****** job of it. This was a problem last year, too. As a 20-game SEC winner in the regular season, we should have been a no-brainer Top 3-4 national seed. But we had to seriously sweat it out at the end because the RPI being lower than it should have been because of the NC SOS.

I’m honestly not sure who is more to blame….Lemonis or Cohen….but both need to get it together and find a solution. We’re in a position where we are practically guaranteed to be on the bubble from here on out, and the 100% best thing we can control that can help us is to literally buy ourselves out of 2 remaining games. That’s not a position we should ever be in.

 

[She Mate Me]

I'm not disagreeing that our NC schedule couldn't stand improvement, even adjusting for the fact that LBSU has had a much worse season than expected and that's 3 games.

But the problem is our performance vs the schedule more than the schedule. Don't lose series to teams like Tulane and LBSU and sweep Northern Kentucky like your supposed to and suddenly we're 24-12 and sweating much less.

 

[Go Budaw]

I'm not disagreeing that our NC schedule couldn't stand improvement, even adjusting for the fact that LBSU has had a much worse season than expected and that's 3 games.

But the problem is our performance vs the schedule more than the schedule. Don't lose series to teams like Tulane and LBSU and sweep Northern Kentucky like your supposed to and suddenly we're 24-12 and sweating much less.

None of those really hurt us though…not that bad. LBSU is still right around 100 in the RPI, which is decent enough. Even NKU is Top 200….and that is our worst loss. Even if we took another from LBSU, swept NKU, and took another from Tulane, we’d still probably be in the 50’s because of the 7 games against awful competition.

Its a simple formula for an SEC team….don’t play a bunch of games against awful nonconference teams. It’s that simple. The most important thing of all to remember….it is better to lose to a Top 125 team than it is to win over a 250+ team. It’s counterintuitive, and not a great system, but everyone knows how it works by now. You don’t have to play world beaters…just replace that 3 game series against Princeton with 3 games against Troy or Jacksonville State. Replace Grambling with La Monroe or Middle Tennessee. Replace UT-Martin with Samford. Then, sure, keep 3 or 4 of the crappy games. Done.

It cost us a regional host spot in 2014, almost cost us a national seed last year, and might cost us a bid this year. Regardless of woulda-coulda-shoulda of what happens on the field, there’s no reason at all to put your program at a major disadvantage for postseason positioning before the first pitch is ever thrown. I will die on this hill.

 

[msudawg1200]

We've actually played some halfway decent teams in the non-conference. USM is 13 in RPI, Tulane is 49, Texas Tech is 30, and UAB is 83. LBSU isn't who we thought they'd be and are at 102, and Memphis is Memphis at 181, as well as Samford at 171. We have played way too many downright awful teams though. I understand many of these are played because of midweek travel, but we've got NKU at 202, and Princeton at 282 as weekend series. Midweek has been Grambling at 276, Binghamton at 255, Southern U at 244, UAPB at 300, UT-Martin at 256, North Alabama at 273, and JSU at 283. I understand you want some winnable midweek games, but we need to drop some of the SWAC's and maybe pick up South Alabama, Tennessee Tech, SE Louisiana, etc.

 

[WeWonItAll(Most)]

We schedule too many SWAC teams every single season. One is one too many in my book, we usually have 3-4 a season (4 this year). UNA might as well be another SWAC opponent as bad as they've been the last two years.

 

[11thEagleFan]

Agreed, never makes sense to schedule SWAC schools when you have Sun Belt and C-USA schools within driving distance. Even when you win those games, your RPI tanks. Case in point, Southern Miss swept Florida International on the road this weekend and our RPI is gonna drop around 5 spots. And FIU’s RPI is around 220, better than most SWAC schools.

 

[Misfit]

The first paragraph of your rant makes no sense to me It seems as if you are arguing that we would be ranked like LSU and Auburn if we had just played a better non-conference schedule. We went into the LSU series tied with them at 4-5 in the conference. They finished the weekend at 7-5, while we were at 4-8, so, of course they are ranked higher than we are. At the time the current rankings came out, Auburn was also 7-5 in the conference. So far this weekend we have won 2 games and both LSU and Auburn have lost 2. Let's see where they are ranked after this weekend.

You want to blame Cohen or Lemonis for our weak non-conference schedule and the games you are bitching about are all mid-week single games. Just who are the top 100 rpi teams chomping at the bit to ride a bus for hours or charter a plane to get to Starkville for a single game? We play midweek games against the two teams in Mississippi who usually fall into that category. Sure, I would like to see us play a weekend series against Michigan in February, but it's not like Long Beach State is a cupcake. If you want to ***** about us scheduling a 3 game series against NKU, I would agree with you on that one. I suspect Binghamton asked us to schedule a midweek game because they were already in the neighborhood playing a 3-game series at Alabama the weekend before.
We are where we are because we have not hit or pitched well often enough and have lost 15 games as a result. We lost 4 out of 6 against Long Beach State and Tulane. Should we have scheduled tougher opponents for those weekends?

 

[WeWonItAll(Most)]

Doesn't need to be top 100. We just need to eliminate 3 of our 250+ Midweek opponents. Take out 3 swac teams, add 3 of ULM, La Tech, ULL, Tulane in a year that we don't play a weekend series against them, Murray St, Nichols St, SELA, Northwestern, Centra Ark, Arkansas St, USM again, Belmont, Lipscomb, Samford, UAB, Memphis, Tennessee Tech. That's just the states surrounding us. Some of them may be 250+ when we play them, but there's a good chance they won't be. As opposed to the SWAC teams that are doomed to 250+ year in and year out

 

[She Mate Me]

Go to Warren Nolan and take a look at TCU. They're 23-12, have almost exactly the same overall SOS as us (better noncon SOS, but still in the 140s) and they have a 38 RPI.

I feel like with 3 or 4 more wins we'd be well inside the Top 50, but I'll never fully get RPI. Consistent performance is our problem this year.

All that said, I do agree with you on improving noncon opponent quality, just not sure it's more important than beating teams you're supposed to beat if you're an NCAA team.

 

[Go Budaw]

The first paragraph of your rant makes no sense to me It seems as if you are arguing that we would be ranked like LSU and Auburn if we had just played a better non-conference schedule.

That’s not what I’m saying at all. I’m saying our RPI would be right there with them if the nonconference schedule was stronger. That is the only ranking that matters. Only reason I mentioned their poll ranking is that it is evidence that both are having good seasons. And, guess what, even if we swept LSU instead of the other way around, we’d still likely be behind them in RPI due to the weak nonconference.

You want to blame Cohen or Lemonis for our weak non-conference schedule and the games you are bitching about are all mid-week single games. Just who are the top 100 rpi teams chomping at the bit to ride a bus for hours or charter a plane to get to Starkville for a single game?

Its certainly not just the midweek games. We played a 3 game weekend series against Princeton, who has won 4 games all season. And even if they’d won more, their RPI would still suck because they play in a crappy league in the Northeast with no talent. Then NKU as you mentioned, although they are at least Top 200.

And what Top 100 RPI teams (or even Top 150 or just Top 200) would come to Starkville in the midweek? I dunno, the same ones who come to Oxford, Tuscaloosa, Knoxville, Baton Rouge, Auburn, and about 5 other SEC schools that don’t have this problem. That’s a start.

This isn’t a hard concept. Play as few teams as possible that are 100% guaranteed to hurt your tourney resume, no matter the result of the game. We’ve got 9 of those games this year which is way too damn many.

 

[Go Budaw]

All that said, I do agree with you on improving noncon opponent quality, just not sure it's more important than beating teams you're supposed to beat if you're an NCAA team.

I’m making no assertion that its more important than “beating who you’re supposed to beat”. What happens on the field is obviously the biggest factor. But I’m asking you to separate the on-field performance where we have not so much control about many things (injuries, slumps, streaks, good plays, bad plays, etc). from something in scheduling where we DO have a lot of control and the adequate resources to solve the problem. This is low hanging fruit, which is why its frustrating to see it happen year after year.

 

[Go Budaw]

Doesn't need to be top 100. We just need to eliminate 3 of our 250+ Midweek opponents. Take out 3 swac teams, add 3 of ULM, La Tech, ULL, Tulane in a year that we don't play a weekend series against them, Murray St, Nichols St, SELA, Northwestern, Centra Ark, Arkansas St, USM again, Belmont, Lipscomb, Samford, UAB, Memphis, Tennessee Tech. That's just the states surrounding us. Some of them may be 250+ when we play them, but there's a good chance they won't be. As opposed to the SWAC teams that are doomed to 250+ year in and year out

Exactly. This guy gets it.