Big Series win for Softball!

The Cooterpoot

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We play Wed at 8:00 PM against USC. Rankings will be interesting this week. Our RPI is hurting our regional chances some but breaking the attendance record is a plus in women's bracketology world. Need to probably win a couple in the tournament.
 
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Dawgg

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Will we host a regional?
We're sitting at 21 in RPI. I think we would probably need to win against South Carolina Wednesday and Texas A&M Thursday to be in serious contention for hosting. We may also need a couple of teams like Virginia Tech, Alabama, Georgia, Baylor, Arizona, and Louisiana to have early tourney exits.

I would say Texas, OU, Duke, Tennessee, Oklahoma State, Stanford, and UCLA are probably locks to host, then you have about 16 teams in contention for those final 9 spots and most of them will end up playing each other at some point during conference tournaments this week. There's not a lot of margin for error for those teams.
 

The Cooterpoot

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We're sitting at 21 in RPI. I think we would probably need to win against South Carolina Wednesday and Texas A&M Thursday to be in serious contention for hosting. We may also need a couple of teams like Virginia Tech, Alabama, Georgia, Baylor, Arizona, and Louisiana to have early tourney exits.

I would say Texas, OU, Duke, Tennessee, Oklahoma State, Stanford, and UCLA are probably locks to host, then you have about 16 teams in contention for those final 9 spots and most of them will end up playing each other at some point during conference tournaments this week. There's not a lot of margin for error for those teams.
If we win two, we host. Alabama hosting would be a total joke. UGA is hosting no matter what. They're fighting for a top 8 and probably need to win the tourney for that. We swept ULL, so we'll be up on them.
 

615dawg

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I think you are spot on. Softball committee is hard to read - they do things that baseball doesn't do. (30 RPI has hosted before, for example).

Break it down like this:

Big 12 Locks: Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
SEC Locks: Tennessee, Florida
Pac 12 Locks: Stanford, UCLA
ACC Locks: Duke, Florida State

There are 7 hosting spots left. Here are the contenders and some notes:

LSU. RPI is 5, but finished 8th in the SEC
Georgia. RPI is 9, but finished 7th in the SEC
Missouri. 11 RPI and fifth place in the SEC.

Committee is definitely watching these three in the SEC Tournament. I think all three are locks if they win a game.

That leaves 4 spots left. I think these are the 9 teams competing.

Louisiana. 12 RPI, but State swept them. They have a won over Oklahoma.
Arkansas. 14 RPI, and State won the series. They finished 4th in the SEC, but had an easier schedule.
Alabama. 15 RPI and did not play State. State finished 2 games ahead of them.
Texas A&M. 16 RPI and finished 3rd in SEC. Beat State in series so will be ahead of them.
Virginia Tech. 17 RPI and 3rd place in ACC.
Arizona. 18 RPI, 5th place in Pac 12 but a blue blood of the sport.
Mississippi State. 21 RPI. 6th place in SEC and 19 Quad 1 wins (7th in country)
Washington. 23 RPI. 3rd place in Pac 12.
Northwestern. 27 RPI. Big Ten Champ

We need to win 2 in the SEC Tournament. That would even up the series with A&M 2-2, give us 21 Quad 1 wins and a top 20 RPI. Although hosting as the 15/16 seed and being matched up with Oklahoma/Texas may not be as good in the long run as being a 2 seed at Louisiana matched up against Florida State or LSU.
 

patdog

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We're sitting at 21 in RPI. I think we would probably need to win against South Carolina Wednesday and Texas A&M Thursday to be in serious contention for hosting. We may also need a couple of teams like Virginia Tech, Alabama, Georgia, Baylor, Arizona, and Louisiana to have early tourney exits.

I would say Texas, OU, Duke, Tennessee, Oklahoma State, Stanford, and UCLA are probably locks to host, then you have about 16 teams in contention for those final 9 spots and most of them will end up playing each other at some point during conference tournaments this week. There's not a lot of margin for error for those teams.
Had a rebuttal all ready to go then realized this was a softball thread. The clue something was wrong was Stanford and UCLA being mentioned to host.
 
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The Cooterpoot

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I think you are spot on. Softball committee is hard to read - they do things that baseball doesn't do. (30 RPI has hosted before, for example).

Break it down like this:

Big 12 Locks: Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
SEC Locks: Tennessee, Florida
Pac 12 Locks: Stanford, UCLA
ACC Locks: Duke, Florida State

There are 7 hosting spots left. Here are the contenders and some notes:

LSU. RPI is 5, but finished 8th in the SEC
Georgia. RPI is 9, but finished 7th in the SEC
Missouri. 11 RPI and fifth place in the SEC.

Committee is definitely watching these three in the SEC Tournament. I think all three are locks if they win a game.

That leaves 4 spots left. I think these are the 9 teams competing.

Louisiana. 12 RPI, but State swept them. They have a won over Oklahoma.
Arkansas. 14 RPI, and State won the series. They finished 4th in the SEC, but had an easier schedule.
Alabama. 15 RPI and did not play State. State finished 2 games ahead of them.
Texas A&M. 16 RPI and finished 3rd in SEC. Beat State in series so will be ahead of them.
Virginia Tech. 17 RPI and 3rd place in ACC.
Arizona. 18 RPI, 5th place in Pac 12 but a blue blood of the sport.
Mississippi State. 21 RPI. 6th place in SEC and 19 Quad 1 wins (7th in country)
Washington. 23 RPI. 3rd place in Pac 12.
Northwestern. 27 RPI. Big Ten Champ

We need to win 2 in the SEC Tournament. That would even up the series with A&M 2-2, give us 21 Quad 1 wins and a top 20 RPI. Although hosting as the 15/16 seed and being matched up with Oklahoma/Texas may not be as good in the long run as being a 2 seed at Louisiana matched up against Florida State or LSU.
We've been a better road team too IMO. I'd prefer an easier regional with the opportunity to host a super but that's too many ifs. Just go win and keep winning. There's no one team this year like the last few.
 
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615dawg

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We've been a better road team too IMO. I'd prefer an easier regional with the opportunity to host a super but that's too many ifs. Just go win and keep winning. There's no one team this year like the last few.
So true. You don't have an Oklahoma that has won 60+ games in a row this season. They finished second in the Big 12. Here are the only P5 teams with single digit losses in the entire nation.

Texas (45-6)
Oklahoma (46-6) - we lost 9-5 against them
Oklahoma State (44-9) - they are going to feast when Texas/OU come to the SEC
Tennessee (40-9) - We run ruled them 9-1 in the series opener
 
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Dawgg

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If we win two, we host. Alabama hosting would be a total joke. UGA is hosting no matter what. They're fighting for a top 8 and probably need to win the tourney for that. We swept ULL, so we'll be up on them.
I agree for the most part. The reason I listed Georgia is because they're sitting there with the 9th ranked RPI, but they're just a 7 seed in the SEC tournament. If they get bounced in their opening game against Auburn and some of the teams below them make deep conference tournament runs, those teams are going to have the opportunity for some high RPI games and I think there's a chance they push Georgia down.

For example, if Arizona beats Washington, they'll most likely end up against UCLA (RPI #7). If they fool around and beat UCLA, then they have a good chance at getting Stanford (#8 RPI). If Baylor beats UCF, their next game is likely against Texas (#1 RPI). If they somehow beat Texas, then they're probably getting OU (#2 RPI) or OK State (#6 RPI). All while Georgia has been home for 2-3 days.

I agree on Bama, but they're somehow 6 spots up on us in RPI. They have a decent chance of beating LSU, who is oddly up there at #5 in RPI. Then they'd end up against Tennessee (#4 RPI). I would just rather they lose and remove all doubt.

I think the Sun Belt teams, ULL and Texas State, have a high hill to climb. That ULL win over OU is nice, but it's not what it was 2 months ago.
 

The Cooterpoot

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I agree for the most part. The reason I listed Georgia is because they're sitting there with the 9th ranked RPI, but they're just a 7 seed in the SEC tournament. If they get bounced in their opening game against Auburn and some of the teams below them make deep conference tournament runs, those teams are going to have the opportunity for some high RPI games and I think there's a chance they push Georgia down.

For example, if Arizona beats Washington, they'll most likely end up against UCLA (RPI #7). If they fool around and beat UCLA, then they have a good chance at getting Stanford (#8 RPI). If Baylor beats UCF, their next game is likely against Texas (#1 RPI). If they somehow beat Texas, then they're probably getting OU (#2 RPI) or OK State (#6 RPI). All while Georgia has been home for 2-3 days.

I agree on Bama, but they're somehow 6 spots up on us in RPI. They have a decent chance of beating LSU, who is oddly up there at #5 in RPI. Then they'd end up against Tennessee (#4 RPI). I would just rather they lose and remove all doubt.

I think the Sun Belt teams, ULL and Texas State, have a high hill to climb. That ULL win over OU is nice, but it's not what it was 2 months ago.
LSU got hit with injuries. Alabama has Beaver on the mound (EL OH EL) & that's all they've got. They aren't good and Beaver hasn't been as strong as early in the year. Their attendance is the only reason they're even getting a mention. They in no way deserve a regional. Their fans want Murphy gone in a big way.
 
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