As discussed by Robbie and Brian this week, there’s the outside shot that 9 SEC teams are bowling and it gets even more crowded for regular bowls if Alabama doesn’t make the playoff.
Assuming Georgia to the playoff ...
It would be Alabama to the Sugar as top SEC available
The A&M/Ole Miss winner will likely be in a New Years 6 slot (would be Sugar if both Alabama and Georgia make playoff)
The A&M/Ole Miss loser or maybe Auburn will be in the Citrus
Then there are the six bowls that the SEC chooses. This is where we want to be. A win over Auburn or Ole Miss would seal it.
Liberty, Music City, Gator, Outback, Texas, Duke's Mayo
Birmingham gets the next pick, and the Gasparilla Bowl has a conditional pick of an SEC team if one is available.
That's 11 definite bowl spots for SEC teams and possibly 12.
Right now, 7 teams have absolute bowl eligibility (Georgia, Alabama, Kentucky, A&M, Auburn, Ole Miss, Arkansas)
Only Mississippi State has implied bowl eligibility (5 wins plus FCS team on the schedule).
Tennessee, South Carolina, Florida, Missouri and LSU are mathematically alive, but its unlikely more than 3 of these will qualify. I actually think Birmingham doesnt get an SEC team this year, and if they do, it will be Missouri or South Carolina.
So where does the SEC send us if we end up in the Group of 6 zone?
1. We have been to 5 of the 6 bowls in this tier in the last 9 years. The Texas Bowl is the only one we haven't been to. The SEC could send us here as a "new destination."
2. We haven't been to the Liberty since 2013. The SEC could send us here as a close destination bowl. However, we have played in the stadium this season, so that may be a deterrent.
3. We haven't been to the Gator since 2017 (We went 2 out of 3 seasons here earlier in the decade, so it seems like we have been more). The SEC could send us to Jacksonville again, but I doubt it.
4. The Duke's Mayo Bowl was the Belk Bowl when we were last there in 2015. This would be a weird spot for us to end up this year IMO, but if chaos were to happen in the last three weeks? Who knows.
5. The Music City Bowl is like the Duke's Mayo Bowl - seems like a strange fit for this season. And we were just there in 2019.
6. The Outback Bowl does not want Mississippi State. I don't think we will ever be back there, ever.
My guess is that we end up in the Texas or Liberty. If A&M goes to the NY6, we would actually be the closest available team to Houston if LSU doesnt sneak into bowl eligibility.
But here's a scenario worth discussing - what if we win out and get to 8-4, while Ole Miss and Auburn drop their games to A&M and Alabama, respectively.
That would have us third in the West, with wins over the second place team in both the East and West. The Citrus Bowl would have to pick between us, Auburn and Ole Miss (and we would have beaten both).
