If the horsie doesn't win you don't have no plays though.
I miss Jai Alai. Used to go down to WPB all the time in the late 80's, early 90's. That and the Dog Track were both just lit back then.
BWI Sports Betting Thread
- Thread starter Grant Green
- Start date
I miss Jai Alai. Used to go down to WPB all the time in the late 80's, early 90's. That and the Dog Track were both just lit back then.
I still play the dog tracks once a year when a bunch of us go to Tampa . Strategy is bet inside and outside pieces and box tris. 1,2,7,8. Lots of fun
It’s truly bad odds when you consider that the house is taking 16%-20% of that money on a win bet at the track. Betting baseball on a dime line (if you’re searching one out) means a ~2.3% hold.
Yeah, we just bet numbers at Jai Alai - unless there was an outlier like Bolivar in there somewhere. Peeling off tip money 3-4-7 $6 quinella box in every game got your night paid for.
How do they come up with the O/U for NFL preseason football games?
I noticed, to date, they've almost all been in the 32-37 pt range (I think 1 was slightly higher) ... and every game has easily beat that mark ... with the exception of the Lions/Falcons, which was on pace to do so, before it was ended prematurely due to that awful injury. I believe those bets were voided as a result.
Even as the early games came in clearing the O/U hurdle easily, they kept throwing out the 32-37 pt mark.
I noticed, to date, they've almost all been in the 32-37 pt range (I think 1 was slightly higher) ... and every game has easily beat that mark ... with the exception of the Lions/Falcons, which was on pace to do so, before it was ended prematurely due to that awful injury. I believe those bets were voided as a result.
Even as the early games came in clearing the O/U hurdle easily, they kept throwing out the 32-37 pt mark.
Who knows. Look at the results from last year. A ton of games that landed <37, especially the first 2 weeks. Maybe regressing back to the mean this year with a lot of overs.
The popular consensus amongst the public seems to be that it's super degenerate to bet preseason, but I think it's much the opposite. There are some great edges to be had if you do your homework.
Of course, the very next game that finishes after I make my post comes in under that range I mentioned. Regardless ... yeah, I was wondering if they just go off prior season average preseason scores, with slight adjustments for projected team quality, or what they're up to. It just seemed like scoring across the board was out of the expected range, and they weren't adjusting for it. There was also very little variance in the O/U number, and I guess they can't go off expected offensive firepower, given that 2s, 3s and 4s are playing a ton ... but you'd think there was something to better offensive schemes/historical scoring.
My wife has the winning approach to betting on animal races.
She waits to see if any of them poop or urinate before being forced into the gates.
If they DO potty, is the implication a win or a loss and what is the logic? Prefaced by "daresay." Which circumstance would you run faster on?
There are certainly edges to be found, and it's a much different type of handicapping (much more information-based and tendency-based than something you can plug into a model). A lot of really sharp people get involved in it as the limits have risen through the years.
Though I'd agree it's pretty degenerate to bet a game when you've got no info just because you need action on the Hall of Fame Game.
After every preseason I remind myself to blindly put a few dollars on Baltimore the following preseason...and I never do.
I build a huge par 3 green on the infield of the Magic City Casino dog track in Miami back in the day. What struck me was the banking of the track. It was much more pronounced than you see from the stands. The surface was like a fine sugar sand.
The Over on HOF/Week 1 preseason NFL games was 14-2 (one voided due to an incomplete game), and most of those 14 weren't even close.
Even if you don't want to wager on preseason games, I wonder if there's information here that would be worthwhile during the regular season ... is there any correlation between overall scoring levels in the preseason and subsequent score totals in the regular season (something that indicates a shift in offense v. defense, rather than particular skill level of any particular team or matchup)? And do the bookmakers adjust early season o/u lines accordingly? Or is it completely throwaway info?
I'm curious what erial thinks, but I would guess that preseason results have little to do with how bookmakers open the Week 1 lines. 14-2 is still a relatively small sample size and could be just a big statistical variance. I guess it's possible that some teams are trying to focus more on offense and playing more starters (like Cincy playing Burrow and Chase for first 2 series) and maybe that had an impact on score. I didn't follow closely so I don't know.
I just took a look at last year's preseason Week 1 and scoring was WAY lower across the board. I think 2 games cleared 40, 2 others were at 39, and the rest were all below this year's "typical" o/u number (which was the mid-30s).
Week 2 preseason last year was similarly low scoring, as well.
Week 3, things heated up, and then Week 1 of the regular season was pretty high scoring.
Maybe a trend appears "predicting" even higher scoring games this year ... or maybe this is a one off bunch of nothing.
Some good discussion on PS overs if interested at 17:00.
PS. Drew Dinsick is an earthquake engineer, so not your average sports betting talking head.
https://www.iheart.com/podcast/867-...7/episode/a-numbers-game-august-12-289367425/
How the One Big Beautiful Bill Act taxes gamblers on money they didn’t keep
When taxes make legal gambling punitive, players move underground—shrinking the legal industry, fueling illicit activity, and costing jobs and revenue.
reason.org
How the One Big Beautiful Bill Act taxes gamblers on money they didn’t keep
When taxes make legal gambling punitive, players move underground—shrinking the legal industry, fueling illicit activity, and costing jobs and revenue.
Yes, this seemed from the outset to be a remarkably stupid (yet unsurprisingly so) decision ... this was already an industry that had an infrastructure catering to the criminal underground, so why present a completely illogical punitive taxation structure, when the seedy people are quite willing and able to just duck back under said legal ground?
Just from eyeballing things, it seemed like the issue mostly corrected itself this week. I think the o/u outcome was closer to .500 this week, after scores normalized a bit and the o/u marks seemed to have been boosted a couple/few points per game.
But, hey ... for that one week, it was a shooting gallery.
Maybe we'll see a bit of an overcorrect and another misalignment before everything settles back into normalcy. Or not.
My opinion is that these anomalies can usually be attributed statistical variance. Preseason is a different animal, so I was open to the idea that there was something else going on (more offensive focus, resting defensive stars, special teams work, etc). Probably not though.
It was just so overwhelmingly lopsided that first week that even I noticed it ... and I don't bet and wasn't looking for it. Games were blowing past the o/u mark early on, and it just didn't stop. I think you still won on the week in week 2 if you just blindly picked overs across the board, but they were much more competitive to that number.
Yeah, you'd have to do an analysis of past year's o/u and scores, and then weekly progressions of same ... and that's just not worth it for me, especially with no skin in the game.
A casual glance seems to indicate 2025 week 2 preseason scores were still up from 2024 preseason week 2 totals.
Betting podcasts/radio shows love to track this kind of stuff. I feel like every season there will be a week or two (or more) where they will be talking about how favorites covered at a ridiculous rate, or unders, or overs......
It would seem near impossible to bet games that teams aren't exactly trying to win. Every team has different goals, different roster questions, etc.
As discussed previously in this thread, if you really do your homework, there are good edges to be found in preseason. If you can figure out those goals, roster questions, etc, it can actually be more profitable than regular season. If you don't, then yeah, I totally agree and you are just betting to have action.
For example, from ChatGPT - By mid-2023, the Ravens had amassed 26–7 ATS over their previous 32 preseason contests
Errani/Vavassori to win Mixed Doubles @+210
Venus joins US Open as mixed doubles wild card
Venus Williams and Reilly Opelka were one of 14 teams -- six via wild card -- announced Tuesday by the USTA for its mixed doubles event at the US Open in August.www.espn.com
Licking my chops hoping that these matches (and especially Futures) get posted giving way too much credit to the top singles players. That Errani/Vavassori team could be very undervalued…then again, maybe BOL/DK or whoever opens it will really know what they’re doing and mostly ignore Singles form. I’ll be searching for lines a lot over the next month.
I made some plays over the past few days on the Errani team, but it's still a nice price on them heading into the Semis (Pinny is at +200, but there are some better lines out there if you search).
Also like them to win their first match tomorrow night against Collins/Harrison @ -160
So last season, a lot of us rode IU, Army, and Navy like an outside horsie at Knoebels grabbing the brass ring. What do we do at the start of this season with these teams? Prove me wrong?
Also, who will be this year's IU, Army, Navy? I suspect GaTech. I've got other suspicions (USC, WA). Any others come to mind?
Also, who will be this year's IU, Army, Navy? I suspect GaTech. I've got other suspicions (USC, WA). Any others come to mind?
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Another question for the successful bettors here (which I still am - barely). You guys know anything about the VSiN subscriptions (for either college or nfl)? Was thinking about sharing one w/ a few co-workers. I assume it's access to a part of their website? Can it be accessed by more than one person - like netflix and other services?
I'd like it to maybe get more structure/discipline in my betting. Also If I really like something and they love the same thing, I think I can make larger bets and start winning more than $1K/year.
I'd like it to maybe get more structure/discipline in my betting. Also If I really like something and they love the same thing, I think I can make larger bets and start winning more than $1K/year.
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I'm always wary of betting highly successful teams like IU the year after. The books typically catch up (we saw that late last season) and so does the public. I do think IU should be pretty good again but would expect their ATS record to come back to normal. I'm still going through my preseason research so don't really have anyone that stands out yet. I would look for teams with an upgraded coaching staff and a solid portal class that weren't that successful last season.
I don't have a VSIN subscription so can't answer. I think you would only get one to follow picks of hosts that you like. IMO, you are better off searching for some podcasts for handicappers that you like. @Erial_Lion often posts the Right Angle Sports pod with Eddie, who is a really sharp guy and I'm pretty sure a successful bettor. VSIN also posts all of their radio shows and podcasts on Iheart radio. Find some hosts/shows you like and tune in to them.
I'd be very surprised if anyone from VSIN is giving out any plays that would be long term winners. The VSIN guys that Grant Green posts shows from are sharp around the industry, tuned in and know what they're doing, etc. But I'm sure no one is giving out much, if anything, that's +EV.
Markets like major NCAA Football and NFL are unbeatable unless you're modeling, getting info before it's fully baked into the lines, outworking everyone else with your research, etc.
If someone was really serious about becoming a long term winner, I'd tell them to focus on two areas...learn to code/model and think about dedicating pretty much all of your free time to this endeavor...or learn how to arb/chase steam.
Unless you're beating the closing lines, your chances of winning are microscopic. And no one does that by "feel", watching games on TV, etc...you need to find an edge, and even then, your edge will likely be incredibly tiny, and you will need to exploit any edges you find via volume (and once you've started to become successful, you get a whole new plethora of headaches around being unable to find anywhere to take your bets, or losing sleep around the new tax laws that could cause me to hang it up in about 4 months).
Markets like major NCAA Football and NFL are unbeatable unless you're modeling, getting info before it's fully baked into the lines, outworking everyone else with your research, etc.
If someone was really serious about becoming a long term winner, I'd tell them to focus on two areas...learn to code/model and think about dedicating pretty much all of your free time to this endeavor...or learn how to arb/chase steam.
Unless you're beating the closing lines, your chances of winning are microscopic. And no one does that by "feel", watching games on TV, etc...you need to find an edge, and even then, your edge will likely be incredibly tiny, and you will need to exploit any edges you find via volume (and once you've started to become successful, you get a whole new plethora of headaches around being unable to find anywhere to take your bets, or losing sleep around the new tax laws that could cause me to hang it up in about 4 months).
FYI, VSIN is doing a special of $10 for the first month. Pretty sure they do a comprehensive college football preview. If written by Adam Burke, there should be some good information.
Welp, we'll put Erial down firmly in the technical-analysis-only camp for betting. That was some serious poo-poo'ing of fundamental analysis.
Will be interesting to track this angle for another season.
What's the record, ATS, of all college football teams travelling 2+ time zones? It doesn't seem like there's any logic supporting the fact that Big Ten teams would be adversely affected by "time travel" more or less than any other teams.
Sovereignty took a dump on camera during the post parade for the Derby and I quickly hit my TVG app to get a few bucks down. Glad I did.
In the past we haven’t had conferences with teams that are in east and west coast time zones, and power conferences rarely have done ooc games across 3 time zones. I expect the majority of the ooc games in this scenario have been cupcakes traveling to play good teams for tune up games. Yes it would be good to look up the overall ats record (not sure if you can do this on killersports.com) but a lot of those games won’t have the same parameters as two power conference opponents.
it would be good to look at aac games from last season involving cal and Stanford. I just didn’t track them last season.
it’s still a small sample size but larger than in any season in the past. I would guess that it will probably regress to the mean over time, especially if bookmakers start to adjust for it. we’ll see.
I limit live betting unless there is a really compelling reason to do so (ie, I have information that might not be baked into the current price). The hold percentages are usually higher on it, so it's not something that would be beatable long term for most...whereas getting involved in halftime plays usually means more reasonable hold percentages.
I'd never use it to "cut losses or ladder up wins"...once you've placed a bet, it's "done". Anything else you do at that point is a new bet, and I'd only use it if I felt that a bet on either side at the current price is +EV.
Well, you addressed the smart guys, but I'll throw in my two cents anyway.
Totally agree with Erial that it's not a good idea to try to cut losses or bolster wins. Live betting should be completely independent of your pre flop bet.
Personally, I think there are some really good EV opportunities in live betting and I've heard a number of sharp guys agree. Pretty sure many of the live lines often come from algorithms and sometimes you can see things happening in real time that is not accounted for.
Two potential issues. Like Erial said, the hold is often higher. Be wary of paying -115 or more. So hard to beat this vig. Also, as you probably are aware, there is usually a tv time delay that can be significant, and the lines may be moving based on info that you don't have yet. It's amusing to me to watch the live lines change in real time and you know that there is a big play about to happen.
I remember live betting IU giving Purdue 20, then 30, then 40 points last year. I know it wasn't, but it seemed like free money, which everyone loves. You're watching it unfold in front of your eyes and you know it can only get worse for Purdue.
RE tv delay. I have Hotwire Fision. Not crazy about it, but it's a bulk deal within our community.
I've found that Hard Rock (which is probably the worst book in the country, but all that is available in FL) is sometimes a full minute ahead of MLB on the cable. I get 30 seconds, but a minute? I see odds change when the guy changing them is in the on deck circle.
I've found that Hard Rock (which is probably the worst book in the country, but all that is available in FL) is sometimes a full minute ahead of MLB on the cable. I get 30 seconds, but a minute? I see odds change when the guy changing them is in the on deck circle.