BWI Sports Betting Thread

Grant Green

All-Conference
Jan 21, 2004
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I remember live betting IU giving Purdue 20, then 30, then 40 points last year. I know it wasn't, but it seemed like free money, which everyone loves. You're watching it unfold in front of your eyes and you know it can only get worse for Purdue.
Yes, those are the games where you want to take advantage of live betting. They aren't all going to be like that.
I've made the mistake of live betting a team that was rolling, only for them to put in 2nd teamers and take the foot off the gas, or a big momentum swing happens.

And yes, the tv delay times are surprisingly long sometimes.
 

Grant Green

All-Conference
Jan 21, 2004
3,154
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Looks like Draft Kings has increased teaser odds to -135. @Erial_Lion can confirm, but this seems to make teasers -EV.
As mentioned previously, it is typically most (only?) profitable to play Wong teasers in the NFL. Home favs of -7.5 to -8.5, home/away dogs of +1.5 to +2.5. I personally would almost never play anything else, including point totals and college spreads/totals.
 

LionJim

Heisman
Oct 12, 2021
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Well, you addressed the smart guys, but I'll throw in my two cents anyway.
Totally agree with Erial that it's not a good idea to try to cut losses or bolster wins. Live betting should be completely independent of your pre flop bet.
Personally, I think there are some really good EV opportunities in live betting and I've heard a number of sharp guys agree. Pretty sure many of the live lines often come from algorithms and sometimes you can see things happening in real time that is not accounted for.

Two potential issues. Like Erial said, the hold is often higher. Be wary of paying -115 or more. So hard to beat this vig. Also, as you probably are aware, there is usually a tv time delay that can be significant, and the lines may be moving based on info that you don't have yet. It's amusing to me to watch the live lines change in real time and you know that there is a big play about to happen.
Great opening line.
 
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Erial_Lion

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Nov 1, 2021
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Looks like Draft Kings has increased teaser odds to -135. @Erial_Lion can confirm, but this seems to make teasers -EV.
As mentioned previously, it is typically most (only?) profitable to play Wong teasers in the NFL. Home favs of -7.5 to -8.5, home/away dogs of +1.5 to +2.5. I personally would almost never play anything else, including point totals and college spreads/totals.
If I recall correctly, Stanford wrote about playing them at -120, which was the industry standard back then. As more people started winning, books started pricing them at -125, then -130 (plus adding "teaser protection" on so many of their lines, putting a team up at -9 +100 rather than -8.5 -110). As it gets to -135, I'm quite sure that any potential edge is gone (I'm pretty sure it's mostly gone at -130 if playing Wong teasers blindly).
 
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Grant Green

All-Conference
Jan 21, 2004
3,154
4,294
113
If I recall correctly, Stanford wrote about playing them at -120, which was the industry standard back then. As more people started winning, books started pricing them at -125, then -130 (plus adding "teaser protection" on so many of their lines, putting a team up at -9 +100 rather than -8.5 -110). As it gets to -135, I'm quite sure that any potential edge is gone (I'm pretty sure it's mostly gone at -130 if playing Wong teasers blindly).
Fortunately, the offshores still offer -120.
 

Erial_Lion

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This week's show with Eddie Walls is live on Youtube in 10 minutes. As I mentioned last year, I've never met anyone that's successful at this that's willing to share as much stuff as Eddie...it's a must listen every week (and Eddie has enough influence that some of his stuff will likely move pretty quickly).

 
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Grant Green

All-Conference
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Could be the first and last time I ever say it, but go Tarleton State (+14.5)
Took the Fightin Deon's at +4.5 as well. Just got to be too many points.
 
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Nittering Nabob

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Sep 17, 2024
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Could be the first and last time I ever say it, but go Tarleton State (+14.5)
Took the Fightin Deon's at +4.5 as well. Just got to be too many points.
The Tarleton coach has an interesting bio.


There are a lot of good players in the central area of Texas defined by Dallas-San Antonio- Houston.

Stephenville was regularly in the Texas HS playoffs.
 

Grant Green

All-Conference
Jan 21, 2004
3,154
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Unders were 80-46-2 (63.5%) this week.

Texas outgained OSU 336-203 and 5.0ypp to 3.8ypp. They were 1/5 on 4th down and 0/2 in the RZ.

Rice switched to the option this season. I wanted to see how quickly that adapted before looking to bet them. They beat UL-L.

Week 2 - overreaction week. Be careful and look to bet teams that performed below expectations in Week 1.
 
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MtNittany

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Oct 12, 2021
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Grant - Hard Rock has what they call Round Robin Parlays which I sort of liken to parimutual boxing, though you're not picking dogs or horses in order in one race. Pick 3 teams bet $1 (pay $3) and basically only lose money if you don't win 2 of the 3.

You guys ever use these bets on the other books?
 
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Grant Green

All-Conference
Jan 21, 2004
3,154
4,294
113
Grant - Hard Rock has what they call Round Robin Parlays which I akin to parimutual boxing. Pick 3 teams bet $1 (pay $3) and basically only lose money if you don't win 2 of the 3.

You guys ever use these bets on the other books?
Yes, other books offer these. You're not going to love this answer, but I pretty much never play parlays unless they are correlated. Typically, the book takes a bigger cut on parlays and makes a lot of money on them. A correlated parlay would be something like taking an underdog and under a low point total, thinking that in order for the dog to cover they will most likely have to keep the score low.
 
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MtNittany

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Oct 12, 2021
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Yes, other books offer these. You're not going to love this answer, but I pretty much never play parlays unless they are correlated. Typically, the book takes a bigger cut on parlays and makes a lot of money on them. A correlated parlay would be something like taking an underdog and under a low point total, thinking that in order for the dog to cover they will most likely have to keep the score low.
I anticipated your response on parlays in general. Just wondering what other books do. Florida and HR are different than anywhere else. It's just not a good sports book and there's nothing that can be done about it.

Not that I do player props, but there are zero college football player props and few future bets on HR.

It did make me think of Jai Alai and the dog track (Owned by Tom Rooney still, btw) back in the late 80's in FL. Great times.
 

Grant Green

All-Conference
Jan 21, 2004
3,154
4,294
113
I anticipated your response on parlays in general. Just wondering what other books do. Florida and HR are different than anywhere else. It's just not a good sports book and there's nothing that can be done about it.

Not that I do player props, but there are zero college football player props and few future bets on HR.

It did make me think of Jai Alai and the dog track (Owned by Tom Rooney still, btw) back in the late 80's in FL. Great times.
At least you get CFB. Oregon legalized sports betting but for pro only. Really annoying.

I'm kind of ok with no college player props. From what I have read, this is the one area where bet fixing is a concern. College players with little money are willing to risk point/yard/etc shaving more than a pro with a fat paycheck.

Just a quick check, DK, betonline, and bovada all offer round robins. Bookmaker does not, and I suspect other sharp books like Pinnacle don't either.
 

1995PSUGrad

Senior
Nov 16, 2019
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Unders were 80-46-2 (63.5%) this week.

Texas outgained OSU 336-203 and 5.0ypp to 3.8ypp. They were 1/5 on 4th down and 0/2 in the RZ.

Rice switched to the option this season. I wanted to see how quickly that adapted before looking to bet them. They beat UL-L.

Week 2 - overreaction week. Be careful and look to bet teams that performed below expectations in Week 1.
I only took 1 over this week. Tennessee vs. Syracuse.
 
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1995PSUGrad

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At least you get CFB. Oregon legalized sports betting but for pro only. Really annoying.

I'm kind of ok with no college player props. From what I have read, this is the one area where bet fixing is a concern. College players with little money are willing to risk point/yard/etc shaving more than a pro with a fat paycheck.

Just a quick check, DK, betonline, and bovada all offer round robins. Bookmaker does not, and I suspect other sharp books like Pinnacle don't either.
My 20 year old son spent his summer in Montana. He was very excited when he got there because the legal gambling age is 18. He quickly found out that you can only wager on sports through the Bet Montana app (it's run by the state lottery commision) and you have to be located physically at a licensed sports betting location. He didn't make any bets all summer.
 

Grant Green

All-Conference
Jan 21, 2004
3,154
4,294
113
My 20 year old son spent his summer in Montana. He was very excited when he got there because the legal gambling age is 18. He quickly found out that you can only wager on sports through the Bet Montana app (it's run by the state lottery commision) and you have to be located physically at a licensed sports betting location. He didn't make any bets all summer.
makes no sense.
If he starts betting, just make sure he follows good bankroll management. Set aside an amount you can afford to lose in a given time period for entertainment purposes and stop if you hit that point.
 

Erial_Lion

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Nov 1, 2021
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Final Football Tally (unless something changes in the next 3 days, which I don't expect)...

7 Fantasy Leagues
19 Survivor Entries (spread across several pools/books)
4 Weekly Pointspread pools with every game
5 Weekly Pointspread pools choosing the games I pick (ie, SuperContest types)
4 Misc Season Long Pools

And then 2 NCAA Football pools

Busy next few months, but lots of good opportunities
 

MtNittany

All-Conference
Oct 12, 2021
2,471
3,316
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Frustrating day. I thought I was lined up to kill it. I was 7-1 at one point (PSU 1st half points the only loss). Then 4 really bad beats. 3 by half a point (one a live bet on Purdue - who has an idiot for a coach), and then there was the Ole Miss game, which imo could change sports forever.
 
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MtNittany

All-Conference
Oct 12, 2021
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Ole miss was not a bad beat
I classify it differently. In a league by itself. When we meld a coach's post-game comments - on his in game decisions - w/ gambling, we are in a different world.

I will say that there was a chance that before Kiffin called the timeout, they were going to spike it and kick the FG anyway, but it seemed to be all about the line. There was no time left for an onside kick and a TD. None.
 
Dec 19, 2004
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Yes there was time. 8 seconds. Plenty.

yes would be a miracle but kicking the field goal there was the absolutely correct play.

agreed kiffins comments are what make it different.
 

Grant Green

All-Conference
Jan 21, 2004
3,154
4,294
113
Frustrating day. I thought I was lined up to kill it. I was 7-1 at one point (PSU 1st half points the only loss). Then 4 really bad beats. 3 by half a point (one a live bet on Purdue - who has an idiot for a coach), and then there was the Ole Miss game, which imo could change sports forever.
I agree with psujr. Ole miss wasn’t really a bad beat. Kentucky was covering the entire game until the last minute and change.

Lane talking about betting postgame is not new. He was responsible for one the worst beats I ever saw and then trolled bettors on twitter later.

Summary below. Spread was-6 for fau. Game was in 2017 and my friend didn’t even know he got beat until he was celebrating post game (stopped watching when they took knees)


FAU leads 30-23

Marshall: Safety :08)
FAU elected to kneel the ball for three plays, and then the punter ran the ball out of the back of FAU’s endzone to avoid dangerous return man Keion Davis. The ensuing punt gave the Herd a chance, however small, but a return full of laterals came up short.
FAU leads 30-25
 

MtNittany

All-Conference
Oct 12, 2021
2,471
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Yes there was time. 8 seconds. Plenty.

yes would be a miracle but kicking the field goal there was the absolutely correct play.

agreed kiffins comments are what make it different.
Do you think KY was going to spike the ball had Lane not called TO? If so - to kick a FG or try to throw a TD pass? It's usually TD first (unless you're out of downs) and FG after the onsides, isn't it?
 

MtNittany

All-Conference
Oct 12, 2021
2,471
3,316
113
I agree with psujr. Ole miss wasn’t really a bad beat. Kentucky was covering the entire game until the last minute and change.

Lane talking about betting postgame is not new. He was responsible for one the worst beats I ever saw and then trolled bettors on twitter later.

Summary below. Spread was-6 for fau. Game was in 2017 and my friend didn’t even know he got beat until he was celebrating post game (stopped watching when they took knees)


FAU leads 30-23

Marshall: Safety :08)
FAU elected to kneel the ball for three plays, and then the punter ran the ball out of the back of FAU’s endzone to avoid dangerous return man Keion Davis. The ensuing punt gave the Herd a chance, however small, but a return full of laterals came up short.
FAU leads 30-25
Franklin got sucked into it a few years ago when asked about the final score after a game. I just don't think it should be discussed - ever. espn has their own book now. What grad assistant (or his pals/roommates) isn't booking bets based on what he sees or hears? Certainly not today's version of Mike McQueary. They're probably weaker than even he was b/c sports gambling is everywhere and accepted now.

mcqueary.jpg
 

Moogy

All-Conference
Jul 28, 2017
2,774
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Do you think KY was going to spike the ball had Lane not called TO? If so - to kick a FG or try to throw a TD pass? It's usually TD first (unless you're out of downs) and FG after the onsides, isn't it?
If you need 9-11 points with very limited tome left, you always kick the FG first (assuming you’re in range, of course), because you’re 1) saving time and 2) setting up a Hail Mary, to satisfy the necessary TD component.

And folks have made comments about betting lines before. Nothing weird about this, and certainly nothing as dramatic as “changing sports forever.”
 

SleepyLion

All-Conference
Sep 1, 2022
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If you need 9-11 points with very limited tome left, you always kick the FG first (assuming you’re in range, of course), because you’re 1) saving time and 2) setting up a Hail Mary, to satisfy the necessary TD component.

And folks have made comments about betting lines before. Nothing weird about this, and certainly nothing as dramatic as “changing sports forever.”
What does the lack of a large scholarly book have to do with this?
 

Moogy

All-Conference
Jul 28, 2017
2,774
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What does the lack of a large scholarly book have to do with this?
Fewer items with which to wallop the opposition (or snarky commentators) over the head, making it much more difficult to score that TD on the next play, so secure the FG when you can.
 
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