Chances of SEC football schedule staying at 8 games keeps inching closer to reality

[Dawgg]

I mean it’s not like the game ended because nobody was watching it. A&M simply got all this pissy and high fallutin’ big dick energy and just refused to continue scheduling them.

It’s not gonna be “either/or” on those games. That’s why you won’t see any less than 2 rotating opponents even at 8 games…..but more than likely it’s the 3-6 format with 9 total games.

That’s not the way I read that situation at all.

Texas was going to the Pac-12 and assumed everybody they wanted to go with them would be on board. Texas A&M balked and Dan Beebe was able to put together a media package that kept the Big 12 intact for another few years. A&M was faced with either a life in an unstable Big 12 or an open invitation to the SEC and made the incredibly easy decision to join the SEC. Texas was pretty vocal afterward that their dance card was full for the foreseeable future.

It’s not like they were consistent non-conference opponents that just stopped playing one day. This isn’t Florida vs Miami.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

Tell me how #3 hasn’t happened? They’ve generally gotten the CFP teams right every single year. Not really any overt screw jobs at all….with the possible exception of the COVID year when they forced Ohio State in there after they only played 6 games. But I think most still felt they were a better team than Texas A&M.

It doesn't matter how anyone felt or who was 'best'. You are supposed to be putting the 4 (or 12, later on) best resumes on the field. If you're going to choose the "best", why play the games? And the games have to be comparable.

I mean you could talk about who truly got screwed forever. Take last year for example - TCU and Ohio State got in because they only lost 1 game, while Alabama lost 2 and they got left out. That is the criteria.

Alabama lost 1 game in 2017, Ohio State lost 2. Alabama gets in.

As long as this is the metric, why would anyone want to play a harder schedule? It's idiotic.

 

[patdog]

I still think its a game of chicken. ESPN is not going to commit to paying without 9 games being finalized and actually knowing they’ll get the permanent opponents and annual prime matchups that they want. Don’t want to tip their hand, so this was always going to go to the 11th hour. They didn’t commit to paying anything additional for TX / OU joining either…..but not only are they doing it, they facilitated a path for it to happen one year earlier. And that “one year earlier” bit happened at the 11th hour also.

Likewise, the “Big 9” (everyone except MSU, OM, UK, Vandy, and Mizzou) are not going to want to commit to 9 games and a harder path to the CFP without assurance that the increased revenue is worth it.

When **** or get off the pot time comes, league will go to 9 and ESPN will pay more. Way too much lost money from not having annual games like Bama-LSU, Bama-UT, Auburn-UGA, Texas-TX A&M, TX A&M-OU, 2 of 3 between UF-UGA, UT-UGA, and UF-UT, 2 of 3 between OM-LSU, Auburn-LSU, A&M-LSU, and so forth. At the end of the day, the new SEC has 9 of the probably Top 20-25 most watched college football teams in the country. They WANT as many head-to-head matchups between those 9 teams as they can get every single season. They’d also be abandoning probably 5 or 6 annual matchups between teams that would no doubt be in the Top 20-25 most watched regular season games every year. Someone will eventually cave, and an agreement will happen. Occam’s Razor and what not.

I think this is exactly what is happening & how it will turn out.

 

[Maroon Eagle]

I think this is exactly what is happening & how it will turn out.

I think it’ll eventually turn out that way too.

Timing is the big issue though (because as Duke Humphrey mentioned) ESPN is going through layoffs.

Essentially, folks don’t like change unless it’s a no brainer decision. Enough entities have to be on the same page for it to be that way.

 

[Perd Hapley]

It doesn't matter how anyone felt or who was 'best'. You are supposed to be putting the 4 (or 12, later on) best resumes on the field. If you're going to choose the "best", why play the games? And the games have to be comparable.

I mean you could talk about who truly got screwed forever. Take last year for example - TCU and Ohio State got in because they only lost 1 game, while Alabama lost 2 and they got left out. That is the criteria.

Alabama lost 1 game in 2017, Ohio State lost 2. Alabama gets in.

As long as this is the metric, why would anyone want to play a harder schedule? It's idiotic.

Because that’s not the only criteria at all. They are using the exact metrics you suggest. This is an extremely confusing post, because you’re advocating for the 4 best resumes on the field….and you go right into TCU and Alabama which was them doing just that….picking the best resume based on what happened on the field. If you picked the best team who would beat the other in a neutral site matchup with a month to prepare…you’re taking Alabama every time. They would have drug TCU all over the field and everyone knows it. But that didn’t happen. Because they didn’t put their best foot forward enough times to warrant consideration. And their schedule - by SEC standards - was absolutely atrocious. But you think that’s not happening and its only the # of losses that matters?

TCU got in over Alabama because they:

1) Beat every team on their schedule at least once.
2) Their only loss was in a conference championship 13th game (which Alabama didn’t have the fortune of playing in), in overtime, on a goal line stand. By contrast, Alabama lost twice to 2 teams who didn’t win their league….and one of them lost to an awful Texas A&M team. They only beat 10 of 12 teams on their schedule.
3) Alabama was a yard away from losing to that same awful A&M team…..at home.
4) TCU’s best win before the CFP - over Kansas State - was better than Alabama’s best win in 2022, which was over…..drumroll….your very own MSU Bulldogs.
5) TCU’s 2nd best win of 2022 (on the road against Texas) was in far more impressive fashion than Bama’s 2nd best win (also on the road against Texas).

It’s even more confusing because within the context of the thread, you’ve advocated that the committee should use “advanced metrics” also. What advanced metrics? In general, you can either prioritize the advanced metrics or prioritize on-field resumes. But you can’t do both.

I’m not sure what those metrics would have said about Alabama vs. TCU, but what happened on the field was indisputable. There was simply no case to be made for Alabama over TCU. Had to do with a lot more than just total # of losses.

 

[Perd Hapley]

That’s not the way I read that situation at all.

Texas was going to the Pac-12 and assumed everybody they wanted to go with them would be on board. Texas A&M balked and Dan Beebe was able to put together a media package that kept the Big 12 intact for another few years. A&M was faced with either a life in an unstable Big 12 or an open invitation to the SEC and made the incredibly easy decision to join the SEC. Texas was pretty vocal afterward that their dance card was full for the foreseeable future.

It’s not like they were consistent non-conference opponents that just stopped playing one day. This isn’t Florida vs Miami.

You are correct but I don’t think either wanted anything to do with the other after the split. But the fans of both teams and nationwide sure as hell wanted to watch the game, as was proven out every year.

So it’s a LOT of money being left on the table every year that it’s replaced by A&M vs. Sam Houston State and Texas vs. New Mexico State.

 

[8dog]

I was told that cancelling the non-conference games to accommodate a 9 game model was not that costly due to outs in the contract that touched on changes in conference scheduling models, so I dont think that is it all. Good excuse though.

it boils down to:
ESPN isnt willing to pay more for better inventory
Some schools (MSU included) prefer 8
Some schools do not like their permanents in 3-6 model (Bama), and willing to support 8 games now

As Maroon Eagle says, this will probably only be set for a few years to give the SEC chance to evaluate and go back to ESPN for re-upping. ESPN is in the middle of layoffs and probably also want to see how the expanded CFP media deal pans out

I dont understand why they don’t propose rotating the 3 permanents every 4 years to allay some of those concerns about who you’re permanent is. Maybe I’m missing some math here.

 

[Perd Hapley]

I dont understand why they don’t propose rotating the 3 permanents every 4 years to allay some of those concerns about who you’re permanent is. Maybe I’m missing some math here.

I think you can’t rotate all 3 because you have your un-skippable rivalry games. So you’d end up rotating an odd number (7 of 9) which is more messy than the 6 of 9.

Sweet spot for 9 games seems to be a rotating number of teams that is even (since you need home and away against each rotating team) and also divisible by 3 (since you have 12 other teams in the league besides yourself and 3 permanent) so 3 is lowest common denominator. So that’s where the math comes from. 6 rotating is the only number that fits that criteria.

 

[8dog]

I think you can’t rotate all 3 because you have your un-skippable rivalry games. So you’d end up rotating an odd number (7 of 9) which is more messy than the 6 of 9.

Sweet spot for 9 games seems to be a rotating number of teams that is even (since you need home and away against each rotating team) and also divisible by 3 (since you have 12 other teams in the league besides yourself and 3 permanent) so 3 is lowest common denominator. So that’s where the math comes from. 6 rotating is the only number that fits that criteria.

Yeah if it’s a sticking point just go through 4 years and then do a reset. It doesn’t have to be perfect as long as you get everyone thru a home and away everywhere. But I’m fine with 8 anyway.

 

[patdog]

I think you can’t rotate all 3 because you have your un-skippable rivalry games. So you’d end up rotating an odd number (7 of 9) which is more messy than the 6 of 9.

Sweet spot for 9 games seems to be a rotating number of teams that is even (since you need home and away against each rotating team) and also divisible by 3 (since you have 12 other teams in the league besides yourself and 3 permanent) so 3 is lowest common denominator. So that’s where the math comes from. 6 rotating is the only number that fits that criteria.

You could also rotate 4 one year and 2 the next. That would work & I think be better than rotating all 6 at once.

 

[travis.sixpack]

Andy just wants more cool games to watch. He couldn't care less if State gets compensated or not.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

Because that’s not the only criteria at all. They are using the exact metrics you suggest. This is an extremely confusing post, because you’re advocating for the 4 best resumes on the field….and you go right into TCU and Alabama which was them doing just that….picking the best resume based on what happened on the field. If you picked the best team who would beat the other in a neutral site matchup with a month to prepare…you’re taking Alabama every time. They would have drug TCU all over the field and everyone knows it. But that didn’t happen. Because they didn’t put their best foot forward enough times to warrant consideration. And their schedule - by SEC standards - was absolutely atrocious. But you think that’s not happening and its only the # of losses that matters?

TCU got in over Alabama because they:

1) Beat every team on their schedule at least once.
2) Their only loss was in a conference championship 13th game (which Alabama didn’t have the fortune of playing in), in overtime, on a goal line stand. By contrast, Alabama lost twice to 2 teams who didn’t win their league….and one of them lost to an awful Texas A&M team. They only beat 10 of 12 teams on their schedule.
3) Alabama was a yard away from losing to that same awful A&M team…..at home.
4) TCU’s best win before the CFP - over Kansas State - was better than Alabama’s best win in 2022, which was over…..drumroll….your very own MSU Bulldogs.
5) TCU’s 2nd best win of 2022 (on the road against Texas) was in far more impressive fashion than Bama’s 2nd best win (also on the road against Texas).

It’s even more confusing because within the context of the thread, you’ve advocated that the committee should use “advanced metrics” also. What advanced metrics? In general, you can either prioritize the advanced metrics or prioritize on-field resumes. But you can’t do both.

I’m not sure what those metrics would have said about Alabama vs. TCU, but what happened on the field was indisputable. There was simply no case to be made for Alabama over TCU. Had to do with a lot more than just total # of losses.

I get what you mean. I kinda intertwined what I want to happen, with the reality of what does happen.

 

[Eleven Bravo]

Well, count me in with the “8 SEC games per season is enough” crowd. I can’t see any way that Mississippi State University benefits from playing 9 SEC games every year vs 8 SEC games every year. We have enough problems as it is….

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

I think it’ll eventually turn out that way too.

Timing is the big issue though (because as Duke Humphrey mentioned) ESPN is going through layoffs.

Essentially, folks don’t like change unless it’s a no brainer decision. Enough entities have to be on the same page for it to be that way.

There might be a way for ESPN to be outbid soon. Disney lost their *** last year. $123 billion. They are closing businesses and laying off people like crazy. ESPN has losses themselves, and you have to wonder if someone sneaks in and beats their bid. I don't really think this Will happen, but you have to wonder if it could happen. Disney could just drop a few things I bought like Marvel or Pixar.

 

[Luka Legend]

There won’t be any pods. The 2 formats being considered are 1 permanent + rotate 7 of the remaining 14, or 3 permanent + rotate 6 of remaining 12. Like the original poster, I had assumed the 3-6 would win, but I suspect the SEC is going to use the threat of the 1-7 to get more money from ESPN. If ESPN refuses, I think we’ll stay at 8 games.

Is the 3 permanent 6 rotate not the 4 team pods system?

 

[patdog]

Is the 3 permanent 6 rotate not the 4 team pods system?

No. In a pod system, all 4 teams in the pod have the same permanent opponents (each other). In the 3-6 system, your permanent opponents don’t have the same permanent opponents as you. Example, we would likely get Mississippi, Kentucky & Texas A&M. But A&M would likely get us, LSU and Texas.

 

[TXDawg.sixpack]

That's some serious stalker energy. The Red River Rivalry is way more important than a game that ended 12 years ago. Hell, the UT-A&M game doesn't even have a name.

Dude…LSU V Arky has a name…”The Battle for the Boot”. No one outside of Fayetteville cares about that “rivalry”. LSU has left the trophy on the field multiple times.

Since when has a ”name” meant that a game has actual significance to the teams involved?