Hard to even believe this but.....
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D1 Baseball Projections for Regionals...
- Thread starter Msuirondawgs
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The D1 guys are not a bunch of dumbasses either. They've got got some good podcasts too with good insight
I'd love it and I really applaud the guys for digging deep the last couple of weekends, but I just don't see the pitching depth for a tournament run. Somebody give me some hope and show me where I'm wrong.
I think that the glass half full crowd will point to OM last year as our reason for hope, but like you, I still don’t think our pitching staff is anywhere close to where it needs to be to make any noise in the postseason. Our “depth” is about 5 guys deep in terms of guys I trust to consistently compete, and the rest are still a complete mess.
The best I can say right now is that I still have next to zero hope for this season, but with a handful of key new faces next year, I think we could get back in n business next season. A lot’s gotta happen between now and then, though, including a new pitching coach
Just make a regional. Any regional. That's all I want at this point.
Same here. The SEC will toughen even the weakest of our teams, i.e. Mizzou for example. Even with our pitching we would destroy someone like a Rider and Elon. Wake pitching is good, so someone like them might be trouble. I agree with Seinfelds comment above though. Unfortunately there are only about 5 or 6 guys that I trust, pitching wise at this point. Not enough.
With Smith back and if Jurrangelo can limit the walks, our rotation, while not great, can keep us in most games. Holcombe has been pitching well of late in middle relief, and you can do a lot worse at the back end than Dohm and a now healthy Nixon, who has possibly found his 2021 form when he was a freshman All-American at Texas.
Our offense will be sufficient in most games, just have to be competitive on the mound, which I’ve seen encouraging signs of lately. Now our schedule is brutal in the back half so that doesn’t help. But I’m starting to see a potential path forward where I didn’t see one at all a couple of weeks ago.
Outside of the Auburn series, our next 4 weekends we will be at a disadvantage on the mound every game. And when Vail pitches for Auburn, it'll probably be a coin flip
Smith coming back stabilizes at least things enough to move Dohm back to the pen where he belongs. But Gartman and Jurrangelo shouldnt be weekend starters and will likely continue to be exposed by SEC hitters.
This weekend is again HUGE, its another series against a team that is very similar to us talent wise and has major flaws (like we do). Winnign this series is a must.
Smith coming back stabilizes at least things enough to move Dohm back to the pen where he belongs. But Gartman and Jurrangelo shouldnt be weekend starters and will likely continue to be exposed by SEC hitters.
This weekend is again HUGE, its another series against a team that is very similar to us talent wise and has major flaws (like we do). Winnign this series is a must.
17 games to go. If our conference tournament were today we are tied for last in w/ Auburn. Take a few deep breaths and pump the brakes a few times
We might actually have a chance to make a regional this year after all, but it's crazy to be projecting us to make one now. We've still got a LONG way to go and zero room for any error.
We don’t have a true Friday night ace and that’s definitely a problem. Smith has historically been a pitcher that can give us a solid start and keep us in a game, but he’s more of a Saturday or Sunday guy being forced into a tougher role. You feel like you know what you have with Gartman, he’s going to give you 4 or 5 decent innings, but no more, and you have to make sure you don’t leave him in too long. Jurrangelo has by far the highest ceiling of the three and you saw that on Sunday, but he’s also the most inconsistent. I actually like him a lot as a Sunday starter, when he’s on, he will be better than most Sunday guys we see, and if he’s off then we will just have to win a Sunday Funday shootout, which we are capable of doing.
All that to say, you need those three to be the best versions of themselves the rest of the way. If they are, I do feel like you’ve got enough to at least make this interesting down the stretch.
I agree with a lot of what you said. Also the problem is when Smith and Gartman are both 4-5 inning guys it drains the pen. Hopefully Smith will be able to give more in the future.
I also like Jurrangleo on Sunday as well. While I dont think he'll be better than most sunday guys, Im actually not sure he'll be better than any Sunday guy down the stretch except Auburn's, I dont think its wise to run him out there on Friday or Saturday. Hes just not ready for that yet.
I think it'll be a houndi act the rest of the way with our staff, it simply lacks talent. Thats gain why we have to get games against the teams that have similar flaws. This weekend is huge b/c of that. I think LSU and Arkansas expose us pretty bad and even with the way UT is playing, I think sheer talent may win out in that series as well.
I also like Jurrangleo on Sunday as well. While I dont think he'll be better than most sunday guys, Im actually not sure he'll be better than any Sunday guy down the stretch except Auburn's, I dont think its wise to run him out there on Friday or Saturday. Hes just not ready for that yet.
I think it'll be a houndi act the rest of the way with our staff, it simply lacks talent. Thats gain why we have to get games against the teams that have similar flaws. This weekend is huge b/c of that. I think LSU and Arkansas expose us pretty bad and even with the way UT is playing, I think sheer talent may win out in that series as well.
Tennessee has a good Sunday starter but everyone else has been totally piecing it together on Sunday’s, even LSU and Arkansas. I’ll take our chances with Jurrangelo if he’s limiting walks.
We definitely have to get more out of our middle relief pitching. I like what Holcombe has given us lately but he’s basically been it. Hunt is just flat out unreliable, I hate to be blunt like that but this guy is a fourth year player with a career ERA of almost 8. It’s anyone’s guess who might be the next guy or two to step up for us, but we definitely need a couple of more arms we feel comfortable using in conference games.
Two of TN starters have been shockingly bad in Beam and Burns. Dollander has been ok. What a strange regression.
LSU situation is a bit fo a mess, but they just moved C. Little into there sunday slot, their orignial Sunday guy was also Shores who was hurt whose now getting back healthy. Arkansas has 5 arms, they typically match up Sunday depending on whose been used prior too. All of the arms Arkansas uses and Little/Shores from LSU are definetly a notch above Jurrangelo.
Same with Tennessee Beam as been throwing on Sundays.
I mean I'm saying I agree I'd for sure throw him on Sunday. But if we had Little, Beam, or any of the Arkansas arms, they are clearly the better option, its really not even debatable.
Jurrangelos conference ERA is over 8, and hes yet to pitch into the 6th inning. We are on the wrong side of the pitching matchup nearly ever time he steps on the mound in the SEC. It was very smart getting him out of the Friday night role, BUT He should be a mid week starter or a mix/match guy out of the pen. He's got potiental, and hopefuilly he'll improve, but facts are facts in the current
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Beam has actually been the best of the bunch, both stats wise in and out of conference. Burns has been the bad one. Although I agree Dollander is has probably been the better arm all season even though the stats dont show it
Beam has been bad in conference. Worse whip and BAA (.294!) than Dollander. But Burns has been horrific.
Yep, as OM showed last year, if you can just sneak in then everything starts from scratch again. Everyone that gets in has to achieve the same thing to win it (unlike this new 12 team football playoff that's awarding byes).
Beams era is nearly a run lower in conference, but he has been hit. Seems like Dollander has been a little unlucky both in and outta conference, seems like the homer has bothered him.
Burns has been horrible in every facet. But all 3 have ace type talent if they get it figured out.
I think the “glass half full crowd” would actually say that simply making a regional this season has always been the benchmark for calling it a good year, based on where we came from at the end of last season. Would be a solid righting of the ship following 2022. Does that mean it’s the only goal every year? Of course not.
Anyone who had expectation of Omaha or Super Regional based on the total roster upheaval from transfer and injuries and freshmen growing pains (particularly with the pitching staff on all 3) was delusional. Either that, or they already decided they were out on this staff and were setting unrealistic goals as means to justify the opinion they already have when they aren’t achieved.
I think I’m willing to give him a little more credit than that, but I understand your viewpoint. He definitely had a rough go of it against Vandy and Bama. I thought he battled through five competitive innings against Kentucky and SC and was not the reason we lost those games. And then obviously his best start in conference play was against Ole Miss.
There are certainly consistency concerns, and you can’t rule out that he goes on the road and struggles with command again the next two weeks. I think the glass half full viewpoint is that he’s starting to figure some things out and will be a solid Sunday starter for us the rest of the way, before elevating to a bigger role next year. I am very interested to see how he pitches this weekend and if he’s able to have two strong starts in a row.
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