DOW Futures down another 1600

[Darryl Steight]

Again, tariffs have never and will never work. This isn't about what we want to happen. They just don't 17ing work.

Trump is either a lying mother17er or a stupid mother17er. There's no other option. If this was all to get rid of foreign tariffs on US exports, he could have just threatened removing US economic aid, and we wouldn't be the ones getting 17ed. We would have benefited either way. Instead, we're the ones getting 17ed, and way too many of you are happily going along with it.

Anyone who considers themselves small government and/ or fiscally conservative who thinks this is a good idea should be ashamed. This is absolute lunacy.

There are a lot of smart people (in and out of government) who realize the US has been on shaky economic ground for decades, and who want to fix that long term. Those people are saying that they think this current plan is one method of getting us there, and that it's good for the long term, but that it does come with short term pain. That's where we are. There are also smart people saying this is a bad idea and not the proper way to go about it. Maybe they're right, but we don't know yet.

Then there are a lot of dumb, name-calling, short-sighted people saying this attempt to get back on solid footing is 'absolute lunacy', most likely because it is currently affecting them personally in the pocketbook. There are a lot of politicians in this camp, because it's affecting their stock portfolio today, not to mention the damage DOGE is inflicting on their future insider stock trading. There also seem to be a lot of emotional people walking around screaming about this who don't care what's good for the country long term. They just want their money TODAY, like spoiled 5 year olds.

Am I enjoying the chaos? No ma'am. Am I a Trump sycophant who thinks he is infallible? Not at all. And he may well lose this bet. But I am able to back out to 30,000 feet and see what they are trying to do long term, so I'm trying to hold my breath and white knuckle through it, hoping it works and praying it doesn't last too long.

None of that makes me lying, or stupid, or ashamed. It just is what it is.

 

[ckDOG]

I'm gonna laugh my *** off when Trump somehow leverages all this into expanded free trade agreements and the Dems applaud him for it and maga either wants to murder him or decide they were pro globalization all along.

 

[johnson86-1]

There were people in place at that time that curbed the stupider instincts. Those people aren't there this time.

This is an underappreciated reason for why people should generally have integrity and respect processes and institutions. Last time, tons of people were undermining him and using Orangeman Bad as an excuse to ignore chain of command and be dishonest and unethical. If more people in the last administration had advised him of the best course of action on a policy, and then either implemented the policy he chose (as was his duty as the actual elected official) or resigned if they thought they couldn't implement his preferred policy in good faith, his administration would probably look different now and possibly he'd be more willing to listen when people disagreed with him (probably not on tariffs though as that seems to be the one policy he has a strong personal belief in along with I think immigration).

 

[SanfordRJones]

There are people in this thread saying "tariffs never work" and they clearly have no idea what they're talking about.

Then don't take my word for it. Here's what the father of economics and of capitalism, Adam Smith, has to say:

It is the maxim of every prudent master of a family, never to attempt to make at home what it will cost him more to make than to buy. The tailor does not attempt to make his own shoes, but buys them of the shoemaker. The shoemaker does not attempt to make his own clothes, but employs a tailor. The farmer attempts to make neither the one nor the other, but employs those different artificers. All of them find it their interest to employ their whole industry in a way in which they have some advantage over their neighbors, and to purchase with a part of its produce, or what is the same thing, with the price of a part of it, whatever else they have occasion for. What is prudence in the conduct of every private family can scarce be folly in that of a great kingdom.

Or, believe the more than 1000 economists who tried to warn Hoover not to sign Smoot-Hawley plus a few who are trying to give the same warning to Trump: https://www.wsj.com/opinion/a-lette...tariffs-policy-protectionism-economy-9a063b69

 

[85Bears]

Answer the question I asked… what specific type of manufacture do you want us competing with China for? You wanna make $3 happy meal toys here?

And to answer your question, yes our standard of living here in the US has priced us out of certain type of manufacturing. Sorry, I don’t see that as a bad thing.

The 80’s aren’t coming back. The cost of living is higher. You want to bring a bunch of low tech manufacturing back and give people jobs where they can’t afford housing. Again, im all for creating manufacturing where people can earn wages to support cost of living. Your plan will pay people minimum wage to work in **** conditions and they wont be able to afford a house.

You are saying all manufacturing that would return is both low tech and low wage. Thats quite a straw man you are creating to fit your argument.

 

[thatsbaseball]

100%, the president shouldn’t be able to just executive order whatever whim he wants. I don’t remember that happening prior to Obama, but could just be my lack of memory.

If this isn't our biggest problem right now it's certainly one of the top three and congress doesn't have the guts to even talk about it.

 

[dorndawg]

This is an underappreciated reason for why people should generally have integrity and respect processes and institutions.

A fish rots from the head, I've been told

 

[johnson86-1]

100%, the president shouldn’t be able to just executive order whatever whim he wants. I don’t remember that happening prior to Obama, but could just be my lack of memory.

You had presidents exercise wayyy too much power for a long time (FDR was pretty bad and in some ways he is responsible for how broken the system is now), but it's certainly getting worse. But the real problem is Congress and the courts. Our system wasn't set up to count on politicians and judges being angels. It was set up for politicians and judges to be politicians and fight jealously for power. But Congress a good while ago figured out that legislating is hard, but letting the executive branch do the legislating while congress members grand stand and go on tv and fundraise rather than actually legislate regarding the issues they are complaining about is a sweet gig that for many of them comes with practically lifetime employment. But Congress is somehow better than the courts. Members of Congress are at least acting in their own economic self interest. Judges are just partisan and stupid. They destroy their credibility legislating on matters that they really should stay out of, but are too chicken **** to actually weigh in when there are real threats to the separation of powers. I don't know if there has ever been chief justice with such a combination of being hyper focused on politics and the perception of the courts while also having terrible political instincts.

 

[The Cooterpoot]

Ok, who on here was the poster screaming we need to shock the economy back around election time? Because it's not just shocked, Trump has the economy playing electric beer cans on an arc welder.

 

[ronpolk]

You are saying all manufacturing that would return is both low tech and low wage. Thats quite a straw man you are creating to fit your argument.

Well our president instituted tariffs on all products. They weren’t targeted to certain industries. What do you think is more likely to relocate and start making a product here more quickly? Do you think the toy manufacture that generally used generic equipment and a generic building? Or the high tech manufacturing that it takes 5 years to build a plant and purchase equipment because it’s so specialized. Trust me, that manufacturer is waiting 4 years for the next president to reverse all of this.

Im not creating the straw man argument. I didn’t institute tariffs on products that can’t be reasonably be manufactured here. I’m basing my argument on having actually financed plants that are built and actually having talked with business owners about what can reasonably be built here and what can’t.

 

[PooPopsBaldHead]

What does the size of the country have to do with anything? Smaller countries both produce less and buy less relative to larger countries. Trade imbalance is not a requirement to trade with smaller countries.

We've got too many ppl getting their economic knowledge from Rachel Maddow and Don Lemon.

Trade imbalance, trade deficit, etc .. these are all terms that confuse most people. Go read your Adam Smith and Milton Friedman. A trade deficit is better than a surplus. Hard to imagine, but think about it.

Without any trade in the world for the US whereas everything is bought and sold here. We would have no trade imbalance. Everything is perfectly even. If we decide to start sending out Idaho russet potatoes to Ireland and getting back Ireland russet potatoes then we must account for the balance. If we send out 1000 potatoes and get back 2000 potatoes we have a deficit. We also got more for less. While we may have a trade "deficit", we also have a potato surplus.
Same with cars. I will send you a Ford and get back two Toyotas.

So when we add it all together we have to use dollars to track it. So when I see our nation with a trade deficit of $1.3 trillion, I understand it's really a good surplus of $1.3 trillion.



Learn about it for yourself


I

 

[thatsbaseball]

You really don't want low-skilled manufacturing here again. It's just not the best use of our human capital.

Oh we have plenty of candidates for "low-skilled" manufacturing jobs, we've just disguised them as bankers, government employees, teachers, coaches etc etc etc.......

 

[johnson86-1]

A fish rots from the head, I've been told

Which head? It's taken a long time for our bureaucracy to get so out of control. Lots of people blame Obama but the EPA was doing corrupt, back-room sue and settle deals to avoid political and legal accountability going back to at least Bush. Our bureaucracy has been getting more and more partisan for a long time, and I don't think it accelerated as much under Obama as much as they reached a critical mass where there were not enough principled people left to object.

 

[birdawg]

What's the long term gain? Nobody is articulating what it is other than a return to an economic style that relies on headcount in manufacturing that simply won't happen with today's technology. It's dated now like saying let's return to farming to drive job growth. That's just not going to drive the numbers that people want in jobs that pay well. I wish it could happen but it can't in a high tech capitalist world. We have to think differently now if we want to compete long term.

So how do we "think differently" in this situation?

No one has been able to articulate, so far. All emotion driven without citing any real metrics or economic principles.

 

[dorndawg]

Which head? It's taken a long time for our bureaucracy to get so out of control. Lots of people blame Obama but the EPA was doing corrupt, back-room sue and settle deals to avoid political and legal accountability going back to at least Bush. Our bureaucracy has been getting more and more partisan for a long time, and I don't think it accelerated as much under Obama as much as they reached a critical mass where there were not enough principled people left to object.

Obama, the bureaucracy, nor the bogeyman implemented the foolishness we are watching unfold today.

 

[BulldawgFan]

This all day and twice on Black Monday.

If tariffs have never and will never work, then why do other countries impose tariffs on the US? Because they don't work?

 

[Hot Rock]

I don't think people understand what a tariff does. It is a tax on your own people. It does not tax foreign companies, it just makes the stuff cost more and we give that to the gov't. It hits the poorest among us the hardest because their taxes go way up as they pay very little income tax. This method of taxation keeps the poor beat down and the wealthy barely notice it.

Wealthy people don't care how much eggs cost. Hell, their is no food budget. So what if they spend an extra $100 a week on groceries or iphone or shoes etc... Their consumables are such a small amount of their spending, tariffs don't bother them.

What does? If they own the companies that sell to everyone. When lower income people can barely feed their families, then don't buy stuff.

I don't think Trump will stick with the tariffs long though. He will negotiate deals with individual countries trying to gain a better trading partner.

It could work, to get better trade agreements but it's gonna hurt badly.

But they said tariffs never work. They don't, but they can be used to scare countries into getting a better trade deal. That's all I am hoping for but damn, people will be suffering. They will lose their cars and be walking because they can't buy another. Lots of **** will be hitting the fan if this keeps up.

I did a solid and sold all but 10% of my stock holdings out of my 401K but I gotta buy back in at some point or run the risk of missing the bounce back.

 

[johnson86-1]

Obama, the bureaucracy, nor the bogeyman implemented the foolishness we are watching unfold today.

Did somebody claim they did? You were responding to my post talking about how we would be better off if people had generally acted honestly and ethically and with integrity during Trump's first administration.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

100%, the president shouldn’t be able to just executive order whatever whim he wants. I don’t remember that happening prior to Obama, but could just be my lack of memory.

George W. Bush and Obama both abused the hell out of executive orders and Trump and Biden did as well. The executive branch has too much power, but it also requires Congress to get their head out of their asș and do something which they have been incapable of doing for 15 to 20 years

 

[OG Goat Holder]

Which head? It's taken a long time for our bureaucracy to get so out of control. Lots of people blame Obama but the EPA was doing corrupt, back-room sue and settle deals to avoid political and legal accountability going back to at least Bush. Our bureaucracy has been getting more and more partisan for a long time, and I don't think it accelerated as much under Obama as much as they reached a critical mass where there were not enough principled people left to object.

Who EXACTLY do you think this mystery 'bureaucracy' is? I think it's just another thing for people to blame.

 

[BoDawg.sixpack]

Between Indonesia and Vietnam basically capitulating under these tariffs China stands to lose a lot of future manufacturing. We'll see what happens as always but the fact that they were unfazed by increased tariffs is not a good sign for China's economy going forward.

 

[L4Dawg]

I liked the idea of reciprocal tariffs on the biggest offenders. I liked the idea of using them to force canada and mexico to help secure the border. They've largely been used as a hammer for negotiating. I don't like the broad nature of what's being done now. But I'm gonna give it a little time and see how it shakes out before I overreact on it. There's already been more than 50 countries lining up to renegotiate trade. There are people in this thread saying "tariffs never work" and they clearly have no idea what they're talking about.

Trump has made it pretty plain that he isn't looking for deals. He wants tariffs for their own sake. Now he may back down, take deals, and claim that was what he was after all along.....but if you take him at his word, he partially has what he wants, with more coming.

 

[L4Dawg]

Between Indonesia and Vietnam basically capitulating under these tariffs China stands to lose a lot of future manufacturing. We'll see what happens as always but the fact that they were unfazed by increased tariffs is not a good sign for China's economy going forward.

Trump turned down what Vietnam offered over the weekend. He won't take Indonesia's offer either. He wants tariffs, and BIG ones.

 

[L4Dawg]

George W. Bush and Obama both abused the hell out of executive orders and Trump and Biden did as well. The executive branch has too much power, but it also requires Congress to get their head out of their asș and do something which they have been incapable of doing for 15 to 20 years

EXACTLY.

 

[SanfordRJones]

Those people are saying that they think this current plan is one method of getting us there, and that it's good for the long term, but that it does come with short term pain.

I haven't seen anybody but Trump's yes men saying this.

Then there are a lot of dumb, name-calling, short-sighted people saying this attempt to get back on solid footing is 'absolute lunacy', most likely because it is currently affecting them personally in the pocketbook. There are a lot of politicians in this camp, because it's affecting their stock portfolio today, not to mention the damage DOGE is inflicting on their future insider stock trading. There also seem to be a lot of emotional people walking around screaming about this who don't care what's good for the country long term. They just want their money TODAY, like spoiled 5 year olds.

So you're suggesting that people like Smith, Hayek, Mises, Friedman, Rothbard, Hazlitt, and all the rest of the economists who have ever said tariffs don't work didn't know what they were taking about, but President Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Camacho does?

Edit to clean up the quote tags

 

[dorndawg]

Did somebody claim they did? You were responding to my post talking about how we would be better off if people had generally acted honestly and ethically and with integrity during Trump's first administration.

You listed the first two as culprits so I thought that's what you meant. If that's not what you meant: Yes, indeed we would have. Yet here we are.

 

[ckDOG]

So how do we "think differently" in this situation?

No one has been able to articulate, so far. All emotion driven without citing any real metrics or economic principles.

Probably some combination of investments in the right types of education, automation tech, and smart deregulation (not zero regulation) to make it easier to invest in this country and improve our infrastructure and allow us to compete by being better at a process and not bc the government mucked up capitalist principles.

Don't get me wrong, I want manufacturing investments here, but it's not going to look like what people are being sold. And it'll only arrive in a leaning free trade world where we facilitate the best environment for it. A protectionist world will just make our cost of living higher and we will have less incentives to innovate and be efficient. We can try to create some bubble of more expensive self reliance and manual labor but a capitalist world will tell us to have fun with that and leave us behind.

 

[dorndawg]

George W. Bush and Obama both abused the hell out of executive orders and Trump and Biden did as well. The executive branch has too much power, but it also requires Congress to get their head out of their asș and do something which they have been incapable of doing for 15 to 20 years

I agree with you, and would only add the current administration is doing so at orders of magnitude larger scale. What we are seeing today would be like ACA, the Iraq War, and Build Back Better all happening at once via Executive Order.

 

[birdawg]

Trade imbalance, trade deficit, etc .. these are all terms that confuse most people. Go read your Adam Smith and Milton Friedman. A trade deficit is better than a surplus. Hard to imagine, but think about it.

Without any trade in the world for the US whereas everything is bought and sold here. We would have no trade imbalance. Everything is perfectly even. If we decide to start sending out Idaho russet potatoes to Ireland and getting back Ireland russet potatoes then we must account for the balance. If we send out 1000 potatoes and get back 2000 potatoes we have a deficit. We also got more for less. While we may have a trade "deficit", we also have a potato surplus.
Same with cars. I will send you a Ford and get back two Toyotas.

So when we add it all together we have to use dollars to track it. So when I see our nation with a trade deficit of $1.3 trillion, I understand it's really a good surplus of $1.3 trillion.

View attachment 784019

Learn about it for yourself


I

This is incredibly misleading. This is comparing the number of goods traded without regard to the prices in which they were traded, the cost to produce, and the tariffs on each. This has nothing to do with what is happening today, and quite frankly, the plot has been lost when a trade deficit is twisted into a surplus.

 

[ckDOG]

I don't think people understand what a tariff does. It is a tax on your own people. It does not tax foreign companies, it just makes the stuff cost more and we give that to the gov't. It hits the poorest among us the hardest because their taxes go way up as they pay very little income tax. This method of taxation keeps the poor beat down and the wealthy barely notice it.

Wealthy people don't care how much eggs cost. Hell, their is no food budget. So what if they spend an extra $100 a week on groceries or iphone or shoes etc... Their consumables are such a small amount of their spending, tariffs don't bother them.

What does? If they own the companies that sell to everyone. When lower income people can barely feed their families, then don't buy stuff.

I don't think Trump will stick with the tariffs long though. He will negotiate deals with individual countries trying to gain a better trading partner.

It could work, to get better trade agreements but it's gonna hurt badly.

But they said tariffs never work. They don't, but they can be used to scare countries into getting a better trade deal. That's all I am hoping for but damn, people will be suffering. They will lose their cars and be walking because they can't buy another. Lots of **** will be hitting the fan if this keeps up.

I did a solid and sold all but 10% of my stock holdings out of my 401K but I gotta buy back in at some point or run the risk of missing the bounce back.

I think most of us understand it but there are fanboys in denial or gaslight mode right based on who is proposing the tariffs. Crossing my fingers this is some mad genius 4D strategy that back doors us to a more free trade environment and we get to watch those same people become a human pretzel.

 

[SanfordRJones]

But they said tariffs never work. They don't, but they can be used to scare countries into getting a better trade deal. That's all I am hoping for but damn, people will be suffering. They will lose their cars and be walking because they can't buy another. Lots of **** will be hitting the fan if this keeps up.

And Trump could have done this posturing in a way that doesn't affect us negatively such as threatening to cut off US economic and/ or to threaten withdrawal from alliances like NATO.

 

[L4Dawg]

This is incredibly misleading. This is comparing the number of goods traded without regard to the prices in which they were traded, the cost to produce, and the tariffs on each. This has nothing to do with what is happening today, and quite frankly, the plot has been lost when a trade deficit is twisted into a surplus.

You have a 100% trade deficit with the grocery store. Is that a bad thing?

 

[birdawg]

Probably some combination of investments in the right types of education, automation tech, and smart deregulation (not zero regulation) to make it easier to invest in this country and improve our infrastructure and allow us to compete by being better at a process and not bc the government mucked up capitalist principles.

Don't get me wrong, I want manufacturing investments here, but it's not going to look like what people are being sold. And it'll only arrive in a leaning free trade world where we facilitate the best environment for it. A protectionist world will just make our cost of living higher and we will have less incentives to innovate and be efficient. We can try to create some bubble of more expensive self reliance and manual labor but a capitalist world will tell us to have fun with that and leave us behind.

Devils advocate... we already invest heavily in STEM education, and automation tech reduces demand for labor causing high unemployment and lower wages. This is what led to the middle class being sold out to begin with.

Innovative and new ideas are great. Just not seeing any being tossed out there in the marketplace.

 

[Howiefeltersnstch]

And Trump could have done this posturing in a way that doesn't affect us negatively such as threatening to cut off US economic and/ or to threaten withdrawal from alliances like NATO.

You should have shot him an email explaining the proper methods. Too bad everybody here isn't heavily invested in the Hang Seng. That would be even more fun

 

[She Mate Me]

Between Indonesia and Vietnam basically capitulating under these tariffs China stands to lose a lot of future manufacturing. We'll see what happens as always but the fact that they were unfazed by increased tariffs is not a good sign for China's economy going forward.

It's not a good sign for the masses in China, who will suffer soon. The party members will eventually suffer greatly, but not immediately, so they can posture now and act like they are not almost completely dependent on the US to buy their **** and drive their economy. They are more likely to capitulate to what we want than face the consequences and actually suffer themselves.

 

[BoDawg.sixpack]

Trump turned down what Vietnam offered over the weekend. He won't take Indonesia's offer either. He wants tariffs, and BIG ones.

Indonesia didn't offer anything. They said they wouldn't retaliate against the 32% tariffs. IE capitulating ...

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

 

[L4Dawg]

Indonesia didn't offer anything. They said they wouldn't retaliate against the 32% tariffs. IE capitulating ...

Vietnam offered to remove all tariffs on US goods. It was turned down.

 

[L4Dawg]

Indonesia didn't offer anything. They said they wouldn't retaliate against the 32% tariffs. IE capitulating ...

Vietnam offered to remove all tariffs on US goods. It was turned down.

 

[SanfordRJones]

You should have shot him an email explaining the proper methods.

Yeah, God forbid I want the American president to act like a 17ing capitalist and not a socialist.