Your HFA advantage is way too high. 5 pts is about the max and that is only for a PSU white out or night game at LSU.generally 5-8 pts for home field, so that means neutral field it would be equal to slightly favoring us.
the are missing their two best RBs and their #2 WR, so that should give us an edge.
The typical range for college is 1 to 3.5. Believe it or not, I have Ohio State's HFA at 2.6. Not sure if this can be viewed without a subscription, but here is a good summary of current HFA for CFB....HFA