If you look at the AP poll Penn State is 12th. Next year, with 12 teams making the CFP, that would put Penn State on the bubble.
That is not good.
Why? You have to figure a Tulane, James Madison, or Oregon State would make it coming from outside of the Power 4 for some representation by the have nots. Notre Dame, LSU, Tennessee, Clemson and USC are in down years, and I would expect one or two to bounce back into contention. You always have surprises, like Louisville, so there is that as well.
Penn State will have to avoid a three loss season to have a good chance at making it into the CFP. As it stands now, it does not look good.
People who expect 5 or 6 B1G teams making the CFP had best reconsider their thinking. 4 is probably more likely. With the additional teams coming from the SEC (4), ACC (2), Big 12 (1), and the have nots (1). The spots fill up quickly and sitting at #12 probably will not cut it.