FC/OT: You’re the Playoff Committee - what do you do?

Midnighter

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If I am the complete CFP committee, the first thing I’d do is sleep with my 13 wives, one after the other.

The wildest thing about this is in the first year of an expanded playoff Penn State is a likely 4 seed in a four team playoff year.

Rachel Dratch Snl GIF by Saturday Night Live
 

LionJim

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Oct 12, 2021
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I would declare Penn State as National Champions, send a note to Sue Paterno apologizing on behalf of Richard Nixon for 1969, and then continue on with the playoffs for everyone to play for 2nd place.

And if that didn't work I would order a Code Red.
Why wouldn’t it work?
 
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Sharkies

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I mean, looking at the list, seems the first 11 are a lock, barring no major upsets in the last week. Only remaining question is do you take 2 loss Clemson over 3 loss Alabama, and I think the answer is yes, but only because 3 losses and still the ability to compete for a Natty is a bad look IMO.

Edit: that said, this is also why I wanted only an expansion of the playoff to 6 teams. Even 2 losses is pushing it in my mind as to who is "worthy" to win a National title.
 

PSUFTG

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I mean, looking at the list, seems the first 11 are a lock, barring no major upsets in the last week. Only remaining question is do you take 2 loss Clemson over 3 loss Alabama, and I think the answer is yes, but only because 3 losses and still the ability to compete for a Natty is a bad look IMO.

Edit: that said, this is also why I wanted only an expansion of the playoff to 6 teams. Even 2 losses is pushing it in my mind as to who is "worthy" to win a National title.
Keep in mind, the Big 12 Champ will already knock out the "12"
 

psuro

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I mean, looking at the list, seems the first 11 are a lock, barring no major upsets in the last week. Only remaining question is do you take 2 loss Clemson over 3 loss Alabama, and I think the answer is yes, but only because 3 losses and still the ability to compete for a Natty is a bad look IMO.

Edit: that said, this is also why I wanted only an expansion of the playoff to 6 teams. Even 2 losses is pushing it in my mind as to who is "worthy" to win a National title.
It kind of really doesn't matter. It's a relative ranking system. There are no "absolute" numbers, with the exception of the number of teams in the playoff to fill out the brackett.

In your scenario of six teams; if 4 teams have one loss, and two teams have 2 losses, and the 7th-12th team have 3 losses, then the two loss teams are going to get in. Because, relative to the other teams, they have less losses.

Conversely, if 4 teams are undefeated and the next two teams have 1 loss, and the 7th-12 th team have 2 losses, then the teams with 2 losses don't get it. Because it's the rankings are relative to the other teams.

Each year is different and there are no absolute numbers. You shouldn't really get hung up on the number of losses as an absolute number.
 

Midnighter

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Oct 7, 2021
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I mean, looking at the list, seems the first 11 are a lock, barring no major upsets in the last week. Only remaining question is do you take 2 loss Clemson over 3 loss Alabama, and I think the answer is yes, but only because 3 losses and still the ability to compete for a Natty is a bad look IMO.

Edit: that said, this is also why I wanted only an expansion of the playoff to 6 teams. Even 2 losses is pushing it in my mind as to who is "worthy" to win a National title.

Right, but you need a Big XII champ and highest ranked group of five team in there too, so can’t just take the top 12.
 

Phlebitis

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Oct 25, 2021
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I think the nonconference winner highest seeds are :
Oregon
Penn State
Notre Dame or Tennessee

I just can't see the Buckeyes losing to Oregon on a neutral field
Assuming they beat Maryland, I can't see how PSU isn't the highest ranked non conference team. Which is good.

Edit: assuming the Buckeyes beat Michigan
 

PSUFTG

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Nov 1, 2021
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I mean, looking at the list, seems the first 11 are a lock, barring no major upsets in the last week. Only remaining question is do you take 2 loss Clemson over 3 loss Alabama, and I think the answer is yes, but only because 3 losses and still the ability to compete for a Natty is a bad look IMO.

Edit: that said, this is also why I wanted only an expansion of the playoff to 6 teams. Even 2 losses is pushing it in my mind as to who is "worthy" to win a National title.
Along those lines:

I looked back just three years ago - before the latest rounds of conference expansion stuff really took off:

The top 12 teams after 11 weeks of play ALL had at least one win over a top 20 team. Every one of them.

This year?
Of the top 12 teams in the polls - seven of them - SEVEN - have not a single win against a top 20 team on their entire schedule.

That is what the move towards "dilution of quality" expansions, and the move by more and more teams (not all) to avoid top OOC opponents will do for you.
Penn State, of course, is one of those teams in the top 12 without a top 20 win. FWIW, PSU played 4 conference games this year where they faced relatively new adds to the conference - the best of which sits at 6-5, and have combined for a 20-24 record - just 13-24 against P4 opponents. Add in the gauntlet of OOC foes, and there you have it. Conference dilution and Pay Days.
But that is just one for instance, this is not a Penn State issue, it is a college football issue - they have a lot of company. Indiana, Texas, Boise St, Miami, SMU, and Clemson also have ZERO top 20 wins. That, to me, is very damning wrt the state of college football.
Again, just three years ago, every top 12 team had at least one top 20 win, and most had 2 or more.

Is this the new age of "schedule as much mediocrity as possible, make as much $$ as possible through pay day games, and hope to win 10 out of 12 to make the playoffs"? Time will tell.
But if the CFP goes down the road of elevating teams based on # of wins, regardless of whether or not they beat anyone good, it just may be.
I don't think that is what anyone - at least not the fans - hoped to see. Be careful what you wish for.
I actually hope the CFP will take a closer look and elevate those teams with quality wins (no matter which conference they are from) - more so than they elevate teams with fewer losses, but no quality wins.
 
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Bkmtnittany1

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Oct 26, 2021
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I would declare Penn State as National Champions, send a note to Sue Paterno apologizing on behalf of Richard Nixon for 1969, and then continue on with the playoffs for everyone to play for 2nd place.

And if that didn't work I would order a Code Red.
And head to The Phyrst and have a chick tell you to GFY! With a rum and coke of course!
 

CDLionFL

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Oct 25, 2021
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My bracketology would be...

1 Oregon (current B1G leader)
2 Texas (current SEC leader)
3 Boise (current G5 leader
4 SMU (current ACC leader)

5 Ohio State
6 Penn State
7 Notre Dame
8 Georgia
9 Miami
10 Tennessee
11 Indiana
12 Arizona State (current Big XII leader)
 
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Moogy

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Nov 23, 2021
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The wildest thing about this is in the first year of an expanded playoff Penn State is a likely 4 seed in a four team playoff year.

Rachel Dratch Snl GIF by Saturday Night Live
They likely would have been left out as #5, giving ND the nod, since the Big 10 already had 2 squads in the top 4. So, we're likely being saved from an absolute shafting (hopefully Bob can control himself).
 

NewEra 2014

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They likely would have been left out as #5, giving ND the nod, since the Big 10 already had 2 squads in the top 4. So, we're likely being saved from an absolute shafting (hopefully Bob can control himself).
Penn State would have almost certainly been left out of a 4-team playoff this year. It would have been Oregon, Texas, tOSU and ND (or maybe Georgia) barring major upsets the rest of the season. We would have been looking at another NY6 bowl.

I like things better how they are now.
 
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SleepyLion

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My bracketology would be...

1 Oregon (current B1G leader)
2 Texas (current SEC leader)
3 Boise (current G5 leader
4 SMU (current ACC leader)

5 Ohio State
6 Penn State
7 Notre Dame
8 Georgia
9 Miami
10 Tennessee
11 Indiana
12 Arizona State (current Big XII leader)
This would be a pretty good draw for PSU. R1 vs Ind and R2 v Boise.
I think the committee might flip Tenn and Indy, to avoid a Big 10 R1 match up.
 

LB99

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Oct 27, 2021
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Along those lines:

I looked back just three years ago - before the latest rounds of conference expansion stuff really took off:

The top 12 teams after 11 weeks of play ALL had at least one win over a top 20 team. Every one of them.

This year?
Of the top 12 teams in the polls - seven of them - SEVEN - have not a single win against a top 20 team on their entire schedule.

That is what the move towards "dilution of quality" expansions, and the move by more and more teams (not all) to avoid top OOC opponents will do for you.
Penn State, of course, is one of those teams in the top 12 without a top 20 win. FWIW, PSU played 4 conference games this year where they faced relatively new adds to the conference - the best of which sits at 6-5, and have combined for a 20-24 record - just 13-24 against P4 opponents. Add in the gauntlet of OOC foes, and there you have it. Conference dilution and Pay Days.
But that is just one for instance, this is not a Penn State issue, it is a college football issue - they have a lot of company. Indiana, Texas, Boise St, Miami, SMU, and Clemson also have ZERO top 20 wins. That, to me, is very damning wrt the state of college football.
Again, just three years ago, every top 12 team had at least one top 20 win, and most had 2 or more.

Is this the new age of "schedule as much mediocrity as possible, make as much $$ as possible through pay day games, and hope to win 10 out of 12 to make the playoffs"? Time will tell.
But if the CFP goes down the road of elevating teams based on # of wins, regardless of whether or not they beat anyone good, it just may be.
I don't think that is what anyone - at least not the fans - hoped to see. Be careful what you wish for.
I actually hope the CFP will take a closer look and elevate those teams with quality wins (no matter which conference they are from) - more so than they elevate teams with fewer losses, but no quality wins.
So, I am curious. What team are you advocating for that has a “quality win” but more losses?

FYI. Illinois was ranked #19 when Penn State beat them. They are currently ranked 25 in the playoff rankings and 22 in the AP. Also, there is no “new age” of college football scheduling lesser opponents. It has been going on for decades. The SEC has beat up on Wofford, Mercer, Troy, The Citadel, etc for years. The B1G has always scheduled MAC teams. This has nothing to do with the new playoff expansion.
 

Pennstatel0

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May 1, 2022
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To me, the choice is between aZ state and Clemson.

Do I think Bama is one of the best 10 teams? Yup. bama, osu, and Ga have the best talent money can buy. No question.

But let me ask this. Say the1998 Yankees, with the best team money can buy, lost in the wild card series? Do yo say, well, they are the best team, so let’s have them advance. Fvc no!! They lost, they’re out. Thems the rules

Oh wait. The committee has no rules. Other than to give SEC teams as many chances as possible.

Why is this even a question?

SMH
 

Calabrin

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Oct 16, 2022
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That was one reason I was dying on Saturday, I dreaded the possibility of IU getting in and PSU not being chosen.
Indiana's schedule this year is even weaker than ours. They've been clobbering their opponents, and all credit to them for doing so, but they haven't played anyone decent until Saturday when they got smoked by the Buckeyes.

I'm not saying Saturday's matchup wasn't interesting, and Indiana did hang in there for a while, but at the end of the day... yeah... reality asserted itself.
 

Calabrin

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Oct 16, 2022
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I think the nonconference winner highest seeds are :
Oregon
Penn State
Notre Dame or Tennessee

I just can't see the Buckeyes losing to Oregon on a neutral field
I do not think Ohio State is as stalwart as many others seem to believe.

We did not play particularly well in our game against them (hardly any attempts to throw the ball down field) and still only lost by 1 score.

Many people seem to think it's a foregone conclusion that tOSU wins the conference championship, but I dunno. They're vulnerable. Certainly more than they have been in past years.
 

LionJim

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Indiana's schedule this year is even weaker than ours. They've been clobbering their opponents, and all credit to them for doing so, but they haven't played anyone decent until Saturday when they got smoked by the Buckeyes.

I'm not saying Saturday's matchup wasn't interesting, and Indiana did hang in there for a while, but at the end of the day... yeah... reality asserted itself.
Sure, but the choice between a 10-2 Penn State and a 11-1 Indiana isn’t all that cut and dried. We needed to win this past Saturday.
 
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