I mean, looking at the list, seems the first 11 are a lock, barring no major upsets in the last week. Only remaining question is do you take 2 loss Clemson over 3 loss Alabama, and I think the answer is yes, but only because 3 losses and still the ability to compete for a Natty is a bad look IMO.
Edit: that said, this is also why I wanted only an expansion of the playoff to 6 teams. Even 2 losses is pushing it in my mind as to who is "worthy" to win a National title.
Along those lines:
I looked back just three years ago - before the latest rounds of conference expansion stuff really took off:
The top 12 teams after 11 weeks of play ALL had at least one win over a top 20 team. Every one of them.
This year?
Of the top 12 teams in the polls - seven of them - SEVEN - have not a single win against a top 20 team on their entire schedule.
That is what the move towards "dilution of quality" expansions, and the move by more and more teams (not all) to avoid top OOC opponents will do for you.
Penn State, of course, is one of those teams in the top 12 without a top 20 win. FWIW, PSU played 4 conference games this year where they faced relatively new adds to the conference - the best of which sits at 6-5, and have combined for a 20-24 record - just 13-24 against P4 opponents. Add in the gauntlet of OOC foes, and there you have it. Conference dilution and Pay Days.
But that is just one for instance, this is not a Penn State issue, it is a college football issue - they have a lot of company. Indiana, Texas, Boise St, Miami, SMU, and Clemson also have ZERO top 20 wins. That, to me, is very damning wrt the state of college football.
Again, just three years ago, every top 12 team had at least one top 20 win, and most had 2 or more.
Is this the new age of "schedule as much mediocrity as possible, make as much $$ as possible through pay day games, and hope to win 10 out of 12 to make the playoffs"? Time will tell.
But if the CFP goes down the road of elevating teams based on # of wins, regardless of whether or not they beat anyone good, it just may be.
I don't think that is what anyone - at least not the fans - hoped to see. Be careful what you wish for.
I actually hope the CFP will take a closer look and elevate those teams with quality wins (no matter which conference they are from) - more so than they elevate teams with fewer losses, but no quality wins.