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Lurker123

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OL chemistry, like i said, is at least communication with the center, they've all gotten live reps with Lee, and they have more starting experience. So further along on building chemistry, more starts, and each player had proven their effectiveness on the field, just shared the field with lesser guys because of injuries. I don't see what's complicated about that.

It's not complicated. You believe it's not an issue for us, but it is for our opponents. Your reasoning should be consistent.

Now, there was more to that post. Would you like to take a stab at a more focused prediction?
 
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18IsTheMan

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Just look up a couple posts.

We're "top half" in the SEC in most positions.

But i agree with you. It's unreasonable to assume that every question mark will be a homerun on our part, and a failure on our opponents' part.
According to this we rate 12th in the SEC in talent ranking.

 
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gamecock stock

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I don't see a game on our schedule that is unwinnable. Alabama/LSU/Oklahoma just names - not the great teams of the past. We are always equal to or better than Kentucky/Missouri - Beamer/team just allergic to their colors I guess. Clemson not the same since everybody can buy players and they aren't the only payday in town. I'll concede loss to Georgia.
I have predicted no worse than 7-5. The only games out of our reach are Alabama and Oklahoma on the road. But I'm NOT talking about winning 10 games. This is Beamer's 4th season here. Most of the players on the team are HIS recruits. If he has been doing his job recruiting-wise, evaluating talent and hiring quality coaches, we should be good this season. NO EXCUSES!!!!
 

18IsTheMan

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I have predicted no worse than 7-5. The only games out of our reach are Alabama and Oklahoma on the road. But I'm NOT talking about winning 10 games. This is Beamer's 4th season here. Most of the players on the team are HIS recruits. If he has been doing his job recruiting-wise, evaluating talent and hiring quality coaches, we should be good this season. NO EXCUSES!!!!
Are you predicting 7 wins because you think we are actually capable of that or because you think we should be capable of that in Beamer's 4th season?
 

gamecock stock

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Are you predicting 7 wins because you think we are actually capable of that or because you think we should be capable of that in Beamer's 4th season?
We have beaten Kentucky each of the past 2 seasons, including there. The last time we beat Clemson there was just 2 years ago. The last time we beat Texas A&M (2 years ago), we beat them at home. Kentucky, Clemson, Texas A&M plus the 4 gimmes, gives us 7 wins. If Beamer has been doing his job these past 4 years to improve the talent on the field and the coaching staff on the sideline and in the booth, we should win 7. But if he has been twiddling his thumbs, it will show this season.
 

JoeMorrisonLives

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It's not complicated. You believe it's not an issue for us, but it is for our opponents. Your reasoning should be consistent.

Now, there was more to that post. Would you like to take a stab at a more focused prediction?
My reasoning is consistent, the situations are different.
 

Lurker123

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My reasoning is consistent, the situations are different.

Of course, there will always be some small detail that justifies the differences.

Now, there was more to that post. Would you like to take a stab at a more focused prediction?
 

Tngamecock

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Jan 22, 2022
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Because OL is more important than QB. A good QB only matters with art least decent OL play. As individual players Baugh, Henry (small sample, but won the two dozen reps he was healthy for), Lee, and Tree are good OL, check the PFF scores. Moore is decent, but it sounds like he was getting pushed and will be out. Baugh didn't give up a single sack, and he sounds like he got beat out. Tree, who is good, was up and down, but finished strong. Tree also may have been beaten out, which is huge, because he is an LT we can win with. I've said for years a good OL and average QB will beat a great QB behind a horrendous OL. And their QB threw 3 INTs against a bad defense in the bowl.

You'll also notice I said is we're good. I don't know how far along we can expect receivers and Sellers to be, though both are loaded with talent. I bet you didn't know we have the fastest WR room in the SEC, even without Harbor, before you replied.

If we had average OL play, we would've probably been a 7 or 8 win team, and that went out the window when Nichols got hurt, because the only other guy with the traits needed for LT was a true freshman. That's before accounting for how we flipped the RB, and DE rooms. Neither does that account for the emergence of Collier, Bam, and Kilgore late last season. Or adding all the depth WR did to a DT room that was already one of the best in the SEC, with two DTs considered top 20 draft prospects at their position. Or adding a Butkus watch list LB to start alongside a 1st team All-SEC Debo Williams. Seriously, do you realize that we were top half of the SEC in most positions, but none of it showed out because we had the worst OL and EDGE play, both of which are completely flipped.
Good recap
 

gamecock stock

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My opinion is that we are going to have to be levels above where we were last season to compete with the line up before us.
At this point we are questionable…. Unknown at best. It’s a bad thing to start season after season like this. Like our tires are stuck in the mud.
If we have an “upset” win. Great! But don’t let Tanner use it as hype to carry him into the 2025 without having to make tough decisions on football staff.
I agree. We will see how this season turns out. You mention "If we have an upset win". To succeed, it will take upset winS, year in and year out. We are never going to have the player talent of most teams we go up against and we never have. That's a fact of South Carolina football life. People need to accept that. But over the years, we have beaten Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, Florida, Auburn, Clemson, etc. It takes a Head Coach who is good at strategy, devising the tactics to carry out the strategy, motivation and organization. We will find out this season if Shane Beamer has that ability.
 
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JoeMorrisonLives

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Of course, there will always be some small detail that justifies the differences.

Now, there was more to that post. Would you like to take a stab at a more focused prediction?
Yeah, Kentucky isn't a toss up, TAMU should be favored against us with competent coaching, which they now have, an vs in not sold on Ole Miss. They haven't been great in the road, and part year isn't enough to convince me otherwise. In top of that, their OC is Briles, and his system doesn't with against high end man coverage, for what teams can pull it off, and we have one of the best DB coaches in the game and a room full of 4* players to work with, many don't into their third year which is when you expect most players to hit their stride. LSU's defense last year, losing the one thing that made the offense work, Kelly's inability to break through and play to his talent at ND makes me think early season LSU trying to feel their way is also vulnerable. I think Clemson continues their slice after being only 32nd in defense last year, and then losing 5 of their front 6 and top DB. They have no QB but Klubnik, and he sucks, three two INTs in the Spring Game against the vanilla calls defenses run in spring games and has a history of errors, forced or unforced. They also lost their best offensive weapon, and found no help for OL, which they looked for in the portal. They dint have the same staff as even they reloaded, as evidence by ending the 10- win streak and having a mediocre defense against a weaker schedule with a senior heavy defense. And Riley is not a proven commodity at OC, because he never ran his own offense, but Sonny's before last year.
 

Lurker123

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Yeah, Kentucky isn't a toss up, TAMU should be favored against us with competent coaching, which they now have, an vs in not sold on Ole Miss. They haven't been great in the road, and part year isn't enough to convince me otherwise. In top of that, their OC is Briles, and his system doesn't with against high end man coverage, for what teams can pull it off, and we have one of the best DB coaches in the game and a room full of 4* players to work with, many don't into their third year which is when you expect most players to hit their stride. LSU's defense last year, losing the one thing that made the offense work, Kelly's inability to break through and play to his talent at ND makes me think early season LSU trying to feel their way is also vulnerable. I think Clemson continues their slice after being only 32nd in defense last year, and then losing 5 of their front 6 and top DB. They have no QB but Klubnik, and he sucks, three two INTs in the Spring Game against the vanilla calls defenses run in spring games and has a history of errors, forced or unforced. They also lost their best offensive weapon, and found no help for OL, which they looked for in the portal. They dint have the same staff as even they reloaded, as evidence by ending the 10- win streak and having a mediocre defense against a weaker schedule with a senior heavy defense. And Riley is not a proven commodity at OC, because he never ran his own offense, but Sonny's before last year.

So, after that extremely long post with no paragraph breaks, you never actually made a prediction.

Seems to me, with those "facts" you just listed, you should be pretty confident in calling some of thise games victories.

But you won't. Which makes me wonder how confident you are in your own opinions. (I mean "facts")
 
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JoeMorrisonLives

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So, after that extremely long post with no paragraph breaks, you never actually made a prediction.

Seems to me, with those "facts" you just listed, you should be pretty confident in calling some of thise games victories.

But you won't. Which makes me wonder how confident you are in your own opinions. (I mean "facts")
I told you what I'm comfortable with. Why do I need to do more than that?
 

Lurker123

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I told you what I'm comfortable with. Why do I need to do more than that?

Because a range from 6-9 wins is overly large, and indicative of someone with no confidence in their prognostications.

I am completely comfortable with that scenario if you are.
 

JoeMorrisonLives

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Because a range from 6-9 wins is overly large, and indicative of someone with no confidence in their prognostications.

I am completely comfortable with that scenario if you are.
Why? Why does it mean I'm not confident? The margins are thin in football. You're just making dumb statements. I've never been accused of lacking confidence.
 

Lurker123

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Why? Why does it mean I'm not confident? The margins are thin in football. You're just making dumb statements. I've never been accused of lacking confidence.

Because an overly vague prediction means you can claim to be right in almost every realistic scenario.

If there's almost no risk of being wrong, you could claim the moon caused us to win, and then claim to be right afterwards.

You made statements about several teams, like Ole Miss's offense "won't work" against us. But when they beat us, you don't have to walk back anything, because you never said we'd actually beat them, and we'll still probably fall inside that overly large range you predicted.

If you think that is just "dumb" I'm not sure I can help you.

Edit: Wait, I did think of something that might help you. It's an extreme example. What if I told you that we would be worse at every single position, and the staff was terrible, and to back it up I predict we would win anywhere from 2 to 8 games. Would I be able to argue I was right afterwards in your eyes?
 
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JoeMorrisonLives

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Because an overly vague prediction means you can claim to be right in almost every realistic scenario.

If there's almost no risk of being wrong, you could claim the moon caused us to win, and then claim to be right afterwards.

You made statements about several teams, like Ole Miss's offense "won't work" against us. But when they beat us, you don't have to walk back anything, because you never said we'd actually beat them, and we'll still probably fall inside that overly large range you predicted.

If you think that is just "dumb" I'm not sure I can help you.

Edit: Wait, I did think of something that might help you. It's an extreme example. What if I told you that we would be worse at every single position, and the staff was terrible, and to back it up I predict we would win anywhere from 2 to 8 games. Would I be able to argue I was right afterwards in your eyes?
I would be wrong if you're right and we only win 5 games.

I mentioned a true observation that's regularly accepted in coaching circles that the passing concepts used in true Air Raid and Veer and Shoot offenses beat zone coverage schematically, but loses that schematic advantage against teams that are good at man coverage. We have quite a few guys with NFL futures in the DB room. There's a reason the Bamas and Georgias of the quirks don't run those, you need a full route tree and well timed progressions to get guys open against high quality man coverage. For example, in 2022, the 3 defenses that ran his man coverage against Tennessee were Georgia, Pitt and us. Georgia and Pitt were the only teams to keep them under 30 in regulation, though Pitt let them get to 34 in OT, and we were similarly effective against the pass, but let them get too much on the ground. Alabama was capable of doing the same, but went in with a terrible gameplan that played into what Tennessee wants to do. Those schemes are not talent maximizers, which is why most Air Raid coaches don't run true Air Raids anymore, but more complicated systems with more pro passing concepts mixed in with the wide splits, etc.

I also used the quality of our transfers. I used the advanced analytics of our OL players. I used the fact damn near everyone is saying our DT room is top 5 in the SEC. I used the fact that of our weaknesses on defense were addressed and greatly improved, abs we were actually really good outside of those weaknesses. I used the known commodity of Simon at TE, potential of Sellers and having the fastest WR room in the SEC, though being two starters are from G5, we need to see them do it here. I'm not talking or if my ***, that's all true, and that does show we'd be better. LB was not a weakness, and transfers from P5 players with a track record means that's definitely better, because Blanton was young and show, and these guys aren't. You just saying we'll be worse everywhere doesn't have the basis I have. I'm leaving room to see how well they gel together.
 

Lurker123

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I would be wrong if you're right and we only win 5 games.

I mentioned a true observation that's regularly accepted in coaching circles that the passing concepts used in true Air Raid and Veer and Shoot offenses beat zone coverage schematically, but loses that schematic advantage against teams that are good at man coverage. We have quite a few guys with NFL futures in the DB room. There's a reason the Bamas and Georgias of the quirks don't run those, you need a full route tree and well timed progressions to get guys open against high quality man coverage. For example, in 2022, the 3 defenses that ran his man coverage against Tennessee were Georgia, Pitt and us. Georgia and Pitt were the only teams to keep them under 30 in regulation, though Pitt let them get to 34 in OT, and we were similarly effective against the pass, but let them get too much on the ground. Alabama was capable of doing the same, but went in with a terrible gameplan that played into what Tennessee wants to do. Those schemes are not talent maximizers, which is why most Air Raid coaches don't run true Air Raids anymore, but more complicated systems with more pro passing concepts mixed in with the wide splits, etc.

I also used the quality of our transfers. I used the advanced analytics of our OL players. I used the fact damn near everyone is saying our DT room is top 5 in the SEC. I used the fact that of our weaknesses on defense were addressed and greatly improved, abs we were actually really good outside of those weaknesses. I used the known commodity of Simon at TE, potential of Sellers and having the fastest WR room in the SEC, though being two starters are from G5, we need to see them do it here. I'm not talking or if my ***, that's all true, and that does show we'd be better. LB was not a weakness, and transfers from P5 players with a track record means that's definitely better, because Blanton was young and show, and these guys aren't. You just saying we'll be worse everywhere doesn't have the basis I have. I'm leaving room to see how well they gel together.

Interesting that only one scenario could make you wrong, and 4 could make you "right". That seems like an even distribution. (That was sarcasm)

And another long diatribe of your opinions leaves us with all these "facts" why Ole miss's offense won't work against us. Yet you won't actually predict we beat them.


I thought I would repeat this, as I think it'll help you understand.
What if I told you that we would be worse at every single position, and the staff was terrible, and to back it up I predict we would win anywhere from 2 to 8 games. Would I be able to argue I was right afterwards in your eyes?
 

Harvard Gamecock

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There are fans and there are ....

 

Thunderstick

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I don't see a game on our schedule that is unwinnable. Alabama/LSU/Oklahoma just names - not the great teams of the past. We are always equal to or better than Kentucky/Missouri - Beamer/team just allergic to their colors I guess. Clemson not the same since everybody can buy players and they aren't the only payday in town. I'll concede loss to Georgia.
That's kind of you to let Georgia slide.
 

Thunderstick

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Yeah, Kentucky isn't a toss up, TAMU should be favored against us with competent coaching, which they now have, an vs in not sold on Ole Miss. They haven't been great in the road, and part year isn't enough to convince me otherwise. In top of that, their OC is Briles, and his system doesn't with against high end man coverage, for what teams can pull it off, and we have one of the best DB coaches in the game and a room full of 4* players to work with, many don't into their third year which is when you expect most players to hit their stride. LSU's defense last year, losing the one thing that made the offense work, Kelly's inability to break through and play to his talent at ND makes me think early season LSU trying to feel their way is also vulnerable. I think Clemson continues their slice after being only 32nd in defense last year, and then losing 5 of their front 6 and top DB. They have no QB but Klubnik, and he sucks, three two INTs in the Spring Game against the vanilla calls defenses run in spring games and has a history of errors, forced or unforced. They also lost their best offensive weapon, and found no help for OL, which they looked for in the portal. They dint have the same staff as even they reloaded, as evidence by ending the 10- win streak and having a mediocre defense against a weaker schedule with a senior heavy defense. And Riley is not a proven commodity at OC, because he never ran his own offense, but Sonny's before last year.
Unreadable. Please do better.
 
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lexgamecock

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We're not losing to Georgia this year. I'll take a wager on that one.

I'll agree with you to a point. If we can run the ball consistently and our defense has greatly improved, we can stay close with any team on any given day.
If we do lose to UGA it will mean we got to Atlanta or made the playoffs.
 
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We're not losing to Georgia this year. I'll take a wager on that one.
OKAY MOUFF, YOU are on. $100 says Jawja beats Carolina. Loser pays The Shiners Children's Burn Hospital the $100.

And just to show you that I mean business, SHOULD YOU LOSE and honor of this debt, I will MATCH YOUR DONATION TO THE HOSPITAL upon confirmation that it was paid.

We on???
 

Lurker123

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OKAY MOUFF, YOU are on. $100 says Jawja beats Carolina. Loser pays The Shiners Children's Burn Hospital the $100.

And just to show you that I mean business, SHOULD YOU LOSE and honor of this debt, I will MATCH YOUR DONATION TO THE HOSPITAL upon confirmation that it was paid.

We on???

You know we don't play UGA this year, right?
 

Harvard Gamecock

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I don't see a game on our schedule that is unwinnable. Alabama/LSU/Oklahoma just names - not the great teams of the past. We are always equal to or better than Kentucky/Missouri - Beamer/team just allergic to their colors I guess. Clemson not the same since everybody can buy players and they aren't the only payday in town. I'll concede loss to Georgia.
 

Atlanta Cock

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I have predicted no worse than 7-5. The only games out of our reach are Alabama and Oklahoma on the road. But I'm NOT talking about winning 10 games. This is Beamer's 4th season here. Most of the players on the team are HIS recruits. If he has been doing his job recruiting-wise, evaluating talent and hiring quality coaches, we should be good this season. NO EXCUSES!!!!
Dude. I watched LSU - USCw last night. Both would/will run us off the field in the 1st half. We win 3 this year max, and that's assuming Beams doesn't lose the locker room. To think we could have had Lincoln Riley. My disdain for Tanner and contempt for our BOT grows daily.
 

will110

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Dude. I watched LSU - USCw last night. Both would/will run us off the field in the 1st half. We win 3 this year max, and that's assuming Beams doesn't lose the locker room. To think we could have had Lincoln Riley. My disdain for Tanner and contempt for our BOT grows daily.
This aged well lol. Lincoln Riley is on the hot seat and Carolina is 8-3 with a great shot at beating Clemson.
 
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