Housing Bubble?

[DesotoCountyDawg]

^^^This is SPS. If you are planning for the future, the real question is how does real estate work in Russia? Does the state totally control it? Can I keep my house?

Don't worry though, we are on the right track, participating in Russian disinformation and voting with them at the UN. For some reason all of these former allies in Europe are calling out our alignment with Russia, using crazy terms like fascism to describe what is happening and their leaders have to stop and call Trump out on his lies about Ukraine. WE, the good ole USofA now vote with the empire of evil. Let that sink in.

How did all of our former allies suddenly get TDS? Is he making America great too fast for them? And why would they independently use such harsh terms to describe him just because he says and does everything to indicate that he means it?

I remember the good old days when "patriots" knew who Russia was and didn't fall for their ******** or side with them. Some of you have long forgotten the walks like a duck, quacks like a duck wisdom.

 

[thatsbaseball]

This is the really scary data…. Credit card debt has exploded and some have already started defaulting.

Damn eggs **

 

[dudehead]

It really is a simple concept.

the more the government guarantees something, the higher the cost are.

education
Health insurance
Housing

what else can we name?

Bank deposits?

 

[57stratdawg]

Here's a better way of looking at it than reading click bait poorly written stuff. Statements like "first time homebuyers delinquency rates rise 70 basis points" can sound scary if you don't understand what a basis point is or the normal amount of delinquency rates for first time homebuyers.

View attachment 763726
Delinquency rates were not a cause of the great recession, but a result. The delinquency rate was under 3% before the recession (grey area in chart) and over 11% by the end of the recession.

The cause was the collapse of financial institutions that were underwriting terrible loans. When they collapsed, it was almost impossible to get new mortgages, the entire homebuilding economy collapsed overnight, and unemployment sky rocketed.

There's nothing like that on the horizon in any form as of today. Housing will ebb and flow in regions based on supply and demand. But I would guess the vast majority of appreciation in real estate values for the 2020's happened from June of 2020 - January of 2023. It will be mostly flatish nationally the rest of the decade unless we say sub 4% mortgages again for some reason.


As I said before, kill this program propping up FHA buyers that are delinquent.

Yeah. There was a lot of talk about a “Vibe-session” last fall. Meaning, people were gloomier than the numbers.

I don’t know if that’s a story of income inequality or algorithms, but the economy under the hood is ticking right along. Fed Futures has no real indication of a cut or increase in the immediate future. It seems like we’re dialed in at this 400 BPS range which kills the idea that millions of people are on the verge of living on the streets.

Ironically, we get new Case-Shiller data tomorrow morning.

 

[WilCoDawg]

We need to start a SPS GoFundMe for this. #nosarcastricks

 

[WilCoDawg]

My son bought his first home for 167K and three years into a 30 year mortgage got offered by a private rental company 300K cash. Needless to say he jumped on it like white on rice. However, the neighborhood later went to shite as rental folk just didn't take care of their property like a homeowner would. However, he moved to a much nicer up-scale development and bought a much nicer home where no rental properties exist. Made out like a bandit !!

People in neighborhoods need to start outlawing rentals like this just as some have forbidden AirBNBs and such. Allowing corporations to buy up homes for tax purposes or for rentals only makes homeownership harder for people.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

People in neighborhoods need to start outlawing rentals like this just as some have forbidden AirBNBs and such. Allowing corporations to buy up homes for tax purposes or for rentals only makes homeownership harder for people.

We tried to do it in our neighborhood but it failed. It was a pretty heated debate.

 

[WilCoDawg]

We tried to do it in our neighborhood but it failed. It was a pretty heated debate.

My neighborhood was at the forefront of banning AirBnBs and that was ugly as well. Now we have homes owned privately and publicly with rent reaching $8k for some homes. A lot of the homes are owned by people that don’t even live in TN. I wish people would just refuse to pay the amounts they’re asking.

 

[jethreauxdawg]

People in neighborhoods need to start outlawing rentals like this just as some have forbidden AirBNBs and such. Allowing corporations to buy up homes for tax purposes or for rentals only makes homeownership harder for people.

What about the older couple looking to sell and downsize or move to an assisted living? Investors being excluded reduces their home’s value.

 

[TrueMaroonGrind]

What about the older couple looking to sell and downsize or move to an assisted living? Investors being excluded reduces their home’s value.

In my personal experience, houses in neighborhoods that disallow rentals sell for more than in other neighborhoods that allow rentals.

Now to your weirdly specific scenario. Who cares if they miss out on some money? If the premise is these corporations are artificially inflating prices when Mawmaw and Pawpaw are going off to the home and can offer them more money than the market says it’s worth, we shouldn’t want this to happen. Sorry Mawmaw and Pawpaw.

 

[Motodawg]

This is the really scary data…. Credit card debt has exploded and some have already started defaulting.

I’ve taken more credit card payments in the last year as I have in the 6 years I’ve been in business before that. It’s pretty crazy tbh

 

[jethreauxdawg]

In my personal experience, houses in neighborhoods that disallow rentals sell for more than in other neighborhoods that allow rentals.

Now to your weirdly specific scenario. Who cares if they miss out on some money? If the premise is these corporations are artificially inflating prices when Mawmaw and Pawpaw are going off to the home and can offer them more money than the market says it’s worth, we shouldn’t want this to happen. Sorry Mawmaw and Pawpaw.

Your first sentence seems possible. I’d be curious about that.

Your second comment is interesting. for argument’s sake, I’ll take the opposite stance. You can just pay a little more for a house than make mawmaw get less in the sale.

eta: a better argument

 

[Podgy]

Allowing private equity and banks to buy massive tranches of consumer real estate (mainly speaking to houses - not condos and apartments) with all cash offers is also part of the problem.

Really? I can't imagine our masters of finance and big banks would ever do anything that might harm Americans or the economy. Nor would the government not properly regulate these institutions. No way any of these things would happen ever again***

 

[WilCoDawg]

What about the older couple looking to sell and downsize or move to an assisted living? Investors being excluded reduces their home’s value.

In this scenario, if the home prices are inflated, so is assisted living. Everything will be more expensive.

 

[PooPopsBaldHead]

In my personal experience, houses in neighborhoods that disallow rentals sell for more than in other neighborhoods that allow rentals.

Now to your weirdly specific scenario. Who cares if they miss out on some money? If the premise is these corporations are artificially inflating prices when Mawmaw and Pawpaw are going off to the home and can offer them more money than the market says it’s worth, we shouldn’t want this to happen. Sorry Mawmaw and Pawpaw.

Your first sentence seems possible. I’d be curious about that.

Your second comment is interesting. for argument’s sake, I’ll take the opposite stance. You can just pay a little more for a house than make mawmaw get less in the sale.

eta: a better argument

In this scenario, if the home prices are inflated, so is assisted living. Everything will be more expensive.

I'm with the Cajun Hillbilly Jethreaux on this sidebar.

Remember, 97% of single family rentals and 99.5% of all single family homes are owned by non-institutional investors. So the likely scenario is mamaw and pawpaw don't sell the house. They rent it out and use the income to pay for shuffleboard at the Villages until they croak and then the kids rent it out our 1031 it into a portfolio of rentals. The vast majority of rental homes are owned by individuals. I mean 3/4 of this board seem to own at least one rental.

In 2021 when institutional investors were at peak single family buying, they only accounted for 0.74% of single family homes purchased in the US. So 99.26% were bought by regular folks.


Institutional Buyers Data


So we have somehow created a boogeyman that's really just a little boogie on the end of your pinkie finger that you can easily roll up and flick away. Any arguments to prevent the sale of ones personal property to the highest bidder is an argument against capitalism and for some form of socialism. I will sell my property to the Ayatollah if that 17er is willing to close in cash.


The real issue is we need to build more homes. We need more labor and less regulation to make it more affordable.

 

[PooPopsBaldHead]

This is the really scary data…. Credit card debt has exploded and some have already started defaulting.

Yeah. That's recessionary type data there. Consumer spending = jobs = strong housing market. When the first one stops, the musical chairs are gone.