I'll break down my thinking..
Keep in mind.. Cam's decision comes "Dec. 31".. which will be before Florida has a new head coach..
Cam Newton to State.. 80% chance Mullen stays
If Cam Newton chooses State.. Mullen has given him a "definite".. 20% left open for Mullen using "coach speak"/millions of dollars by UF
Cam Newton to Auburn or Oklahoma.. 40% chance Mullen stays
If he chooses Auburn/Oklahoma.. Mullen has not given Newton a "definite" (uncertainty) OR Newton is already leaning towards Auburn/Oklahoma which doesn't really affect Mullen's decision one way or the other.
I'm just thinking we'll be able to gauge where Mullen is a little better based on Cam's decision.