Indiana and Penn State’s CFP chances

[Bones80]

Lot of noise that PS can lose this weekend and still be assured of a CFP berth if they win out. I think the BIG gets 3 guaranteed spots in the CFP. Assume PS, Oregon, OSU, and Indiana all end up with one loss (OSU beats PS, Indiana and Ducks). Who do you think gets screwed out of that third spot?

 

[PSUFTG]

Lot of noise that PS can lose this weekend and still be assured of a CFP berth if they win out. I think the BIG gets 3 guaranteed spots in the CFP. Assume PS, Oregon, OSU, and Indiana all end up with one loss (OSU beats PS, Indiana and Ducks). Who do you think gets screwed out of that third spot?

Indiana. And it wouldn't even be a close decision.

That said, it is not beyond reason that if things break the right way nationally the B10 could get four in (not likely, but could happen depending on which teams from other conferences get knocked out - and if ND takes another loss and doesn't make the 12)

 

[psuro]

To answer you question - Indiana gets screwed out. Because the SEC teams will pass them, given your scenario.

If PSU beats OSU this weekend, they could go undefeated into the BIGCG. I think that is more plausible than Indiana going undefeated (holy crap, did I just type those words?).

At this juncture, OSU has the most to lose.

 

[Bones80]

Indiana has both Michigan schools, OSU, and Purdue. Not out of the realm of possibility that they win 3/4. They don’t make the BIG CG but are media darlings with an 11-1 record. Say PS loses only to OSU, doesn’t make the BIG CG and end 11-1. Are we sure we get in over Indiana?

 

[yboby]

It would be terribly frustrating if Indiana, of all schools, were to bump PSU from the CFP this season.

 

[PSUQbKeeper]

Indiana has both Michigan schools, OSU, and Purdue. Not out of the realm of possibility that they win 3/4. They don’t make the BIG CG but are media darlings with an 11-1 record. Say PS loses only to OSU, doesn’t make the BIG CG and end 11-1. Are we sure we get in over Indiana?

there is zero chance that an 11-1 PSU team with its only loss to OSU does not get into the playoff

 

[Midnighter]

What happens if PSU loses to OSU but makes the B1G Championship and loses (to say Oregon)? Do they get in over a one loss Indiana? The team to watch here is ND IMO. And maybe Pitt - if they can run the table until the ACC Championship and maybe lose there to say Clemson, how many ACC teams get in (have Miami out there too)?

 

[Erial_Lion]

What happens if PSU loses to OSU but makes the B1G Championship and loses (to say Oregon)? Do they get in over a one loss Indiana? The team to watch here is ND IMO. And maybe Pitt - if they can run the table until the ACC Championship and maybe lose there to say Clemson, how many ACC teams get in (have Miami out there too)?

We’d almost certainly have the edge over Indiana in that scenario.

 

[bdgan]

Indiana. And it wouldn't even be a close decision.

That said, it is not beyond reason that if things break the right way nationally the B10 could get four in (not likely, but could happen depending on which teams from other conferences get knocked out - and if ND takes another loss and doesn't make the 12)

Indy has a weaker schedule but what if PSU loses to OSU by 10 and Indy only loses to them by 3?

 

[LBU11]

What happens if PSU loses to OSU but makes the B1G Championship and loses (to say Oregon)? Do they get in over a one loss Indiana? The team to watch here is ND IMO. And maybe Pitt - if they can run the table until the ACC Championship and maybe lose there to say Clemson, how many ACC teams get in (have Miami out there too)?

Gary Danielson was on Maddog radio the other day and said Big 10 and SEC commissioners are going to make sure the losing team in a championship game don't get jumped by another team that does not play in a championship game. You can love him or hate him as a commentator but he is clued in on these type of things especially with his history announcing SEC games.

 

[PSUQbKeeper]

What happens if PSU loses to OSU but makes the B1G Championship and loses (to say Oregon)? Do they get in over a one loss Indiana? The team to watch here is ND IMO. And maybe Pitt - if they can run the table until the ACC Championship and maybe lose there to say Clemson, how many ACC teams get in (have Miami out there too)?

if PSU only has one loss and makes it to the CCG then that means that OSU lost to someone else, and if Indiana only has one loss then it wasn't them either so it would be Purdue, Northwestern or Michigan

that would probably still put PSU into the playoff and OSU out, or at least OSU would be competing with Indiana, OSU's second loss would be late in the season and would drop them more than PSU's loss to OSU and eventual B1G championship game I would think

 

[Mufasa94]

While it wasn’t presented as a scenario, in my mind the worst (internal B1G only) option for a 1-loss PSU would be a loss this weekend, and then IU beats tOSU.

I wouldn’t be betting my life on 1-loss PSU being above a 2-loss tOSU under the potential circumstances.

I’m as confident as can be that PSU would be selected above IU as a 1-loss team were all the results to all go according to the odds.

 

[Erial_Lion]

While it wasn’t presented as a scenario, in my mind the worst (internal B1G only) option for a 1-loss PSU would be a loss this weekend, and then IU beats tOSU.

I wouldn’t be betting my life on 1-loss PSU being above a 2-loss tOSU under the potential circumstances.

I’m as confident as can be that PSU would be selected above IU as a 1-loss team were all the results to all go according to the odds.

That's a great scenario for the Big Ten, as it pretty much locks up 4 teams in the playoff (assuming Indiana doesn't end up with 2 losses elsewhere...and even then, they might be ok if the loss is in the Title game).

 

[WVilleLion23]

While it wasn’t presented as a scenario, in my mind the worst (internal B1G only) option for a 1-loss PSU would be a loss this weekend, and then IU beats tOSU.

I wouldn’t be betting my life on 1-loss PSU being above a 2-loss tOSU under the potential circumstances.

I’m as confident as can be that PSU would be selected above IU as a 1-loss team were all the results to all go according to the odds.

If we lose to OSU, we need for them to lose again or they will have tie breaker. But if we lose to them and say IU beats them, but still loses a game. They may have tie breaker over us.

Just win baby!!!!!!

 

[Grant Green]

While it wasn’t presented as a scenario, in my mind the worst (internal B1G only) option for a 1-loss PSU would be a loss this weekend, and then IU beats tOSU.

I wouldn’t be betting my life on 1-loss PSU being above a 2-loss tOSU under the potential circumstances.

I’m as confident as can be that PSU would be selected above IU as a 1-loss team were all the results to all go according to the odds.

I wouldn't bet my life on anything, but there is almost no way a 2 loss OSU gets in ahead of a 1 loss PSU.

 

[LB99]

To answer you question - Indiana gets screwed out. Because the SEC teams will pass them, given your scenario.

If PSU beats OSU this weekend, they could go undefeated into the BIGCG. I think that is more plausible than Indiana going undefeated (holy crap, did I just type those words?).

At this juncture, OSU has the most to lose.

if PSU only has one loss and makes it to the CCG then that means that OSU lost to someone else, and if Indiana only has one loss then it wasn't them either so it would be Purdue, Northwestern or Michigan

that would probably still put PSU into the playoff and OSU out, or at least OSU would be competing with Indiana, OSU's second loss would be late in the season and would drop them more than PSU's loss to OSU and eventual B1G championship game I would think

This would be my dream scenario. PSU beats OSU to knock them out of playoff contention. However, if OSU were to beat PSU, but then lose to Indiana, I still think OSU is on the outside looking in with 2 losses.

 

[1995PSUGrad]

What happens if PSU loses to OSU but makes the B1G Championship and loses (to say Oregon)? Do they get in over a one loss Indiana? The team to watch here is ND IMO. And maybe Pitt - if they can run the table until the ACC Championship and maybe lose there to say Clemson, how many ACC teams get in (have Miami out there too)?

Pitt plays Clemson in a couple of weeks. The winner will play Miami in the ACC Championship game unless there are some crazy upsets, which is unlikely in my opinion.

 

[Nittering Nabob]

I'm more worried about PSU @ Minnesota.