Inflation report

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ckDOG

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And get this...I'm hearing gas prices will also drop around the same time.
That's bc Biden's handlers stopped hiding the magic gas price meter from him and set it up next to the White House ice cream machine. He might actually tug on it between now and November.
 

57stratdawg

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Mar 24, 2010
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Time to cut rates.

I really don’t understand the “credibility on inflation” argument. What is the point in being 6 to 9 months late again? We can always raise them in 2025 if it creeps up.
 
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johnson86-1

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Aug 22, 2012
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Time to cut rates.

I really don’t understand the “credibility on inflation” argument. What is the point in being 6 to 9 months late again? We can always raise them in 2025 if it creeps up.
Credibility and Expectations matter.

We went from ball parking 2.5 to 3% for multiyear contracts to plugging in 5% a year. That 5% showed a lot of faith in the fed in general after they just 17ed up pretty badly. If they let inflation run up above 5% (or even to 5%), and we're going to have to reassess whether 5% is enough because it doesn't leave us room for the Fed to 17 up again.

Of course other people are seeing our prices and bumping their inflation expectations up, just like we do when we see other people build in higher increases. If people expect inflation, they are going to price inflation in, which is going to drive inflation.
 
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Boom Boom

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Credibility and Expectations matter.

We went from ball parking 2.5 to 3% for multiyear contracts to plugging in 5% a year. That 5% showed a lot of faith in the fed in general after they just 17ed up pretty badly. If they let inflation run up above 5% (or even to 5%), and we're going to have to reassess whether 5% is enough because it doesn't leave us room for the Fed to 17 up again.

Of course other people are seeing our prices and bumping their inflation expectations up, just like we do when we see other people build in higher increases. If people expect inflation, they are going to price inflation in, which is going to drive inflation.
Given that the Feds dual mandate is to maximize employment too, it's clear they didn't F up.
 
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Boom Boom

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Time to cut rates.

I really don’t understand the “credibility on inflation” argument. What is the point in being 6 to 9 months late again? We can always raise them in 2025 if it creeps up.
A combination of the "fighting the last war" mentality, and these are all bankers, so they range from centrist to hard core Republican. They have a lot of people screaming in their ear about inflation, so they hedge their bets rather than act based on the data.
 

mstateglfr

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Feb 24, 2008
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I don’t think it will anytime soon but we shouldn’t let a few unelected bureaucrats keep manipulating our money.
Who should manipulate our money?
Or are are suggesting there be no group that can pull monetary levers?

If you aree suggesting there be no influence, then who would even set the rate for borrowing from the gvt?
If the rate of borrowing never changes, then nobody would borrow during low bank interest times and everyone would borrow during high bank interest times.
 

bulldawgs231

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Oct 2, 2023
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How do you propose that we regulate monetary policy?
The way Article 1, Section 8 of the U.S. Constitution lays it out. Maybe if it went back to Congress, people would start caring about who they elect. If they don’t, then at least some random bureaucrat doesn’t do it.
 

Hot Rock

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Jan 2, 2010
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I don’t think it will anytime soon but we shouldn’t let a few unelected bureaucrats keep manipulating our money.
Giving it to an elected official would insure it would be changed for political reasons. At least now neither party can affect the rates for political reasons.
My goodness the amount of people wishing for a govt controlled by a dictator is astounding to me.
 

Drebin

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Aug 22, 2012
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A combination of the "fighting the last war" mentality, and these are all bankers, so they range from centrist to hard core Republican. They have a lot of people screaming in their ear about inflation, so they hedge their bets rather than act based on the data.
This post is why you should never be taken seriously....about anything.
 

Curby

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Aug 23, 2012
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Looks like the Fed reserve chair just said "I'm not doing Biden any 17ing favors" and decided to kick the can down the road...
 

Anon1717806835

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The way Article 1, Section 8 of the U.S. Constitution lays it out. Maybe if it went back to Congress, people would start caring about who they elect. If they don’t, then at least some random bureaucrat doesn’t do it.
I guess an economic panic and bank run every 10 years or so would keep us on our toes. Might even get another depression for the nostalgic types longing for a long ago era....
 
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T-TownDawgg

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Nov 4, 2015
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Looks like the Fed reserve chair just said "I'm not doing Biden any 17ing favors" and decided to kick the can down the road...
This is my take. It seems the Fed is looking at real data and not sinking poll numbers. I’d send you all my opinions on what the Dems plan is to combat a number of headwinds against them this summer, but someone just deleted every email on my server.
 

ckDOG

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Dec 11, 2007
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What is the price for Milk,Bread,Eggs,Beef,Gas compared to 4 years ago? How much have wages went up in 4 years?
I don't want anything about June 2020 to be my benchmark for economic satisfaction. I'd rather just forget 2020 ever happened.
 
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Barkman Turner Overdrive

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OG Goat Holder

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Sorry but it’s hard to associate Biden with anything good when it comes to the economy. This interest rate stuff is ridiculous. If they’d lower them a ton of people would buy.

The housing market will correct itself as the boomers buy out (sorry boomers, just truth).
 

bulldawgs231

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Oct 2, 2023
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I guess an economic panic and bank run every 10 years or so would keep us on our toes. Might even get another depression for the nostalgic types longing for a long ago era....

Giving it to an elected official would insure it would be changed for political reasons. At least now neither party can affect the rates for political reasons.
My goodness the amount of people wishing for a govt controlled by a dictator is astounding to me.
The Fed chairman is a presidental appointee. That means he is inherently political.
 

Drebin

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Aug 22, 2012
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Thinking Cooking GIF
 

dorndawg

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Sep 10, 2012
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The way Article 1, Section 8 of the U.S. Constitution lays it out. Maybe if it went back to Congress, people would start caring about who they elect. If they don’t, then at least some random bureaucrat doesn’t do it.
I can’t think of many ideas I would oppose more than having solely Congress regulate monetary policy.
 
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IBleedMaroonDawg

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Nov 12, 2007
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I believe you.
I believe you both. I don't think the president has been in charge of Congress for a long time. I really think the people who are completely in control of Congress are not elected. I really don't look forward to the election anyway because you have one person that won't shut up and one person that can't talk
 
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Dawgg

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Sep 9, 2012
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The Fed is going to be abolished? Where do you get your news?
No, he said the Feb is going to be abolished and I can’t wait either. What kind of sнitty аss month only has 28 days 3 out of 4 years and is so broke it has to borrow an extra goddam day every 4th year?

Leap day? You ain’t leaping sнit, bitсh!

I’m with Anon626272527272772 or whatever…. 17 Feb and its bullsнit Hallmark holidays!
 

57stratdawg

Well-known member
Mar 24, 2010
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Credibility and Expectations matter.

We went from ball parking 2.5 to 3% for multiyear contracts to plugging in 5% a year. That 5% showed a lot of faith in the fed in general after they just 17ed up pretty badly. If they let inflation run up above 5% (or even to 5%), and we're going to have to reassess whether 5% is enough because it doesn't leave us room for the Fed to 17 up again.

Of course other people are seeing our prices and bumping their inflation expectations up, just like we do when we see other people build in higher increases. If people expect inflation, they are going to price inflation in, which is going to drive inflation.
I agree, but your 5% escalation clause is nearly 2X the current CPI level if you max it out. That’s basically a free lunch for you at this point.

But the FED has two jobs: A) Manage Inflation & B) Full Employment. It doesn’t do any good to get ‘under 2%’ if it costs them employment.

Without googling it, I’m guessing we’ve seen a declining inflation levels something like 20 of the last 24 months. The discussion about rate cuts is better measured as ‘slower declines’ rather than inflation actually increasing.
 

Dawgg

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Sep 9, 2012
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This is my take. It seems the Fed is looking at real data and not sinking poll numbers. I’d send you all my opinions on what the Dems plan is to combat a number of headwinds against them this summer, but someone just deleted every email on my server.
Fair. I’d come back with a clever retort, but my ghost writer was just convicted of a felony.
 

Drebin

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Aug 22, 2012
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I agree, but your 5% escalation clause is nearly 2X the current CPI level if you max it out. That’s basically a free lunch for you at this point.

But the FED has two jobs: A) Manage Inflation & B) Full Employment. It doesn’t do any good to get ‘under 2%’ if it costs them employment.

Without googling it, I’m guessing we’ve seen a declining inflation levels something like 20 of the last 24 months. The discussion about rate cuts is better measured as ‘slower declines’ rather than inflation actually increasing.
The fed hasn't been drastic enough on rates. Inflation has declined because it had nowhere else to go, but the telling metric is that it's not declining at the rate that was expected. Meanwhile with all this talk of inflation "decline" the reality is that prices are still going up. You don't get to 300 lbs overnight, so you're not going to lose 100 lbs overnight but you can influence the pace through how drastic your diet is. The fed hasn't been drastic enough, probably because they're trying to protect Biden. But there are consequences to printing money and it affects all of us. Halfassing the mitigation helps nobody. If Biden won't address it with common sense policy changes, then the fed has to rip the bandaid off for him.

And by the way, we are nowhere close to full employment either. Deceptive jobs numbers that are constantly being revised down in the cloak of darkness should be a scandal. Most of the jobs added are part time and govt jobs.

The fed needs to get drastic. Like The Stones said, you can't always get what you want, but if you try you might find that you get what you need.
 

ETK99

Well-known member
Jul 30, 2019
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There's a lot on the table with this next election. From credit cards to estate taxes but anyone thinking rates are going to be cut significantly is probably in for disappointment.
I agree, but your 5% escalation clause is nearly 2X the current CPI level if you max it out. That’s basically a free lunch for you at this point.

But the FED has two jobs: A) Manage Inflation & B) Full Employment. It doesn’t do any good to get ‘under 2%’ if it costs them employment.

Without googling it, I’m guessing we’ve seen a declining inflation levels something like 20 of the last 24 months. The discussion about rate cuts is better measured as ‘slower declines’ rather than inflation actually increasing.
Full employment is never the goal really
 

HRMSU

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Apr 26, 2022
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I agree. I just want to know where the line between "economy is great, inflation isn't hard for these folks" and "inflation is forcing me to take on credit card debt to eat" is.

How many folks are on each side of those lines? I'm on the former, but don't want to see many folks in the latter. If there's a bunch, then I'd appreciate a politician selling me on their plan to get folks out of the bucket of **** and into the crowd that gets to ***** about long lines at Disney World.
If it's a choice between waiting for some politician to better my life or me taking personal responsibility to better my life then I'm not taking the government option.

You have the most control of what you spend, what you save, what debt you have, what you make how educated you want to be and where you work in the long term. I'd prefer to keep politicians out of it.
 
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