I'd agree with your analysis outside of Kentucky and Missouri.
Missouri had a bunch of close wins last year and lost their All American running back. I would bet on them taking a step-back. How much of a step-back is the question, but I'd be shocked if they pushed 10 wins again. Now how we stack up against them is a very different conversation.
I still think UK is a toss-up. We've beaten them back to back years now, and our programs are fairly even at this point.
I see UK as a neutral site toss-up. Being a home game for them, I would give them a slight edge. I'd give us a 45% chance of winning this one. I believe it would be viewed as a minor upset by most. Nothing that would shock anyone.
As far as Mizzou, my official position on them is: I'll believe we can beat them when we beat them. They've got a 5-peat going on us right now.