It's Official.. Recession is here.

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57stratdawg

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Mar 24, 2010
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I don’t think the NBER is going to declare this a recession without job losses.
 

dorndawg

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We redefined recession. So no recession.

I get that folks have political and other motivations for definitively calling it a recession, but have we ever consistently had job growth during a recession?

In any event, the NBER defines it thusly:

Q: What is a recession? What is an expansion?
A: The NBER's traditional definition of a recession is that it is a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months. The committee's view is that while each of the three criteria—depth, diffusion, and duration—needs to be met individually to some degree, extreme conditions revealed by one criterion may partially offset weaker indications from another.
https://www.nber.org/business-cycle-dating-procedure-frequently-asked-questions
 

BoDawg.sixpack

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There's a confluence of several incredible factors

that makes the current situation perplexing: Those are - (1) Recent quantitative easing, bond buying and economic stimulus (2) the fact we're two years removed from an economy that was shutdown due to covid, and (3) approximately 11 million job openings.

There's really no reason that GDP should be in contraction. Something is amiss above and beyond stagnant real wages which has been a factor in the economy for decades.
 

CochiseCowbell

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Oct 29, 2012
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Can we redefine National Championship? It meant one thing, a crowning achievement, in 2021. However, in 2022 it means lucky beer-showering douchebags.
 

johnson86-1

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Aug 22, 2012
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I don’t think the NBER is going to declare this a recession without job losses.

I think we're going to get the job losses. Hopefully it won't be bad. I will say that there is still so much federal money flowing that it's going to be a very uneven recession (although I guess they always are). I think we're about to see a slowdown in a lot of discretionary spending. I've been thinking that for a while and keep being wrong, but with the way credit card debt has been exploding and also seeing an uptick in defaults on car loans, I think we're finally to the point where a lot of consumers are at the breaking point.
 

Go Budaw

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We redefined recession. So no recession.

Recession is just a word. Economy ebbs and flows over time. It’s what it does…..there is no such thing as perpetual prosperity. You’re not going to have a pandemic that kills 6 million people ever not have a major long term impact on economic activity. That’s what we’re dealing with regardless of what you call it.
 
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We've never had a recession on the heels of people being forced out of work. How much of the "job growth" can be attributed to people coming back to work post-COVID? I'm not an economic expert by any means, but I'm pretty confident that this can be both a recession and a unique one because of what happened in 2020.

All this "redefining" the word recession is stupid. Regular people know we are in one. They aren't stupid.

What this country needs is conservative leadership. Not because the conservatives will govern like conservatives (they rarely do, looking at you George W) but only because when there are conservatives in power the press (almost completely liberal, don't bother arguing it) actually holds them accountable instead of toting their water, like they do for this administration. It's embarrassing how the press bend over backwards to shield this administration from criticism.
 

johnson86-1

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Aug 22, 2012
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I get that folks have political and other motivations for definitively calling it a recession, but have we ever consistently had job growth during a recession?

In any event, the NBER defines it thusly:

Q: What is a recession? What is an expansion?
A: The NBER's traditional definition of a recession is that it is a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months. The committee's view is that while each of the three criteria—depth, diffusion, and duration—needs to be met individually to some degree, extreme conditions revealed by one criterion may partially offset weaker indications from another.
https://www.nber.org/business-cycle-dating-procedure-frequently-asked-questions

I don't think we've ever had two consecutive quarters of contraction without it being classified as a recession.

This is a unique one though. Unemployment is still relatively low, but we also have not fully recovered employment from pre-covid, which is somewhat surprising because we still have a growing population. I pretty much ask everyone I see, regardless of industry, if they are seeing a slowdown yet and while I think everyone has said it is not crazy like it was, nobody has said it's actually slow but a lot of people are saying they aren't really making money because they can't get ahead of inflation.

I think we may see something like 2015, where we have contractions in certain industries and others do ok (2015 was basically an oil and gas recession while everything else did fine or good).
 

Go Budaw

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that makes the current situation perplexing: Those are - (1) Recent quantitative easing, bond buying and economic stimulus (2) the fact we're two years removed from an economy that was shutdown due to covid, and (3) approximately 11 million job openings.

There's really no reason that GDP should be in contraction. Something is amiss above and beyond stagnant real wages which has been a factor in the economy for decades.

The answer is lack of productivity, because of unprecedented supply chain issues. Companies want to build things and sell stuff because the demand is there, so they employ people to do both. Many of those people are sitting on their hands with nothing to do, while still getting paid. That’s the very definition of negative GDP….being able to produce and sell fewer goods and services than you did previously.
 

dorndawg

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Sep 10, 2012
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The answer is lack of productivity, because of unprecedented supply chain issues. Companies want to build things and sell stuff because the demand is there, so they employ people to do both. Many of those people are sitting on their hands with nothing to do, while still getting paid. That’s the very definition of negative GDP….being able to produce and sell fewer goods and services than you did previously.

I hadn't really considered it this way, but you may be on to something.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/prod2.nr0.htm
 

BoDawg.sixpack

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Feb 5, 2010
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The increase in inflation has outpaced the decrease in productivity though. That's why most economists weren't predicting a contraction this quarter.
 

Smoked Toag

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The answer is lack of productivity, because of unprecedented supply chain issues. Companies want to build things and sell stuff because the demand is there, so they employ people to do both. Many of those people are sitting on their hands with nothing to do, while still getting paid. That’s the very definition of negative GDP….being able to produce and sell fewer goods and services than you did previously.
That's been my thought too....labor shortage obviously results in a lack of 'stuff' being done/produced. I thought this was maybe too simple, but the reality is that so many like to complicate **** for no real reason.
 

Cooterpoot

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Aug 29, 2012
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Employment rates aren't the problem. They're pretty close to normal now. Historically they run at 59+% on average and we're about that now.
But guess what happens during a recession. That's right, job loss and we were down to 59.9% in June after being at 60.1% in May.
 
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NWADawg

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I think we're going to get the job losses. Hopefully it won't be bad. I will say that there is still so much federal money flowing that it's going to be a very uneven recession (although I guess they always are). I think we're about to see a slowdown in a lot of discretionary spending. I've been thinking that for a while and keep being wrong, but with the way credit card debt has been exploding and also seeing an uptick in defaults on car loans, I think we're finally to the point where a lot of consumers are at the breaking point.

If companies close thousands of job openings that that couldn't fill anyway, does that count as job losses. If so, we will definitely have job losses.
 

onewoof

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Mar 4, 2008
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its called acknowledging we are as a nation, as global human race, recovering from 2 years of grief, panic, fear, denial and death of people gone too soon. individually and collectively it impacts us, and takes time to heal.

all cylinders are not firing for all people right now, they will eventually.
 

aTotal360

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Nov 12, 2009
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I’d like to see a Venn diagram of the people defending this recession with the people that think inflation is a good thing.
 

fishwater99

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Jun 4, 2007
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We've never had a recession on the heels of people being forced out of work. How much of the "job growth" can be attributed to people coming back to work post-COVID? I'm not an economic expert by any means, but I'm pretty confident that this can be both a recession and a unique one because of what happened in 2020.

All this "redefining" the word recession is stupid. Regular people know we are in one. They aren't stupid.

What this country needs is conservative leadership. Not because the conservatives will govern like conservatives (they rarely do, looking at you George W) but only because when there are conservatives in power the press (almost completely liberal, don't bother arguing it) actually holds them accountable instead of toting their water, like they do for this administration. It's embarrassing how the press bend over backwards to shield this administration from criticism.

^^^THIS
 

horshack.sixpack

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Oct 30, 2012
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Thanks, but we really just need a way to politicize it and blame whatever party leaders we don't like.
 

johnson86-1

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Aug 22, 2012
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The answer is lack of productivity, because of unprecedented supply chain issues. Companies want to build things and sell stuff because the demand is there, so they employ people to do both. Many of those people are sitting on their hands with nothing to do, while still getting paid. That’s the very definition of negative GDP….being able to produce and sell fewer goods and services than you did previously.

That's real GDP, not nominal GDP. Also, people need to remember that a lot of not useful stuff gets included in GDP, particularly for government spending.

Econ professor told a parable about GDP to remind people that it's just a measurement tool, and that neither GDP (nor jobs) are what you should really be aiming for.

Two economists are walking down the street and there is a pile of dog ****. The first one bets the second that he won't eat the dog **** for $20k. The second one takes the bet, eats the ****, and gets $20k from teh first one. They continue walking down the street and the second economist is feeling regretful/embarrassed about eating ****, and when he sees another pile of dog ****, he sees it as a chance for revenge. So the second economist bets the first one $20k that he won't eat dog ****. So the first one takes the bet and eats the dog **** and gets his $20k back. They continue walking and they both get sick. The second economist says, "what were we thinking. We both ate ****, we both feel sick, and neither of us is any richer. It was all for nothing." But the first economist replies, "But it wasn't for nothing. We increased GDP by $40k and created two jobs."

ETA: A pretty good example of this from the pandemic is teaching. Teachers almost universally still got paid, even though students weren't learning (which is seen in test scores for students at schools that were shut down). So there was no drop in measured GDP but there was a significant drop in actual output.
 
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Drebin

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Aug 22, 2012
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I don’t think the NBER is going to declare this a recession without job losses.

You can't talk about unemployment without looking at the labor participation rate, which is still alarmingly low compared to pre-pandemic. It's a recesssion.

 

Drebin

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Aug 22, 2012
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I think we're going to get the job losses. Hopefully it won't be bad. I will say that there is still so much federal money flowing that it's going to be a very uneven recession (although I guess they always are). I think we're about to see a slowdown in a lot of discretionary spending. I've been thinking that for a while and keep being wrong, but with the way credit card debt has been exploding and also seeing an uptick in defaults on car loans, I think we're finally to the point where a lot of consumers are at the breaking point.

Unemployment is always a lagging indicator. But the labor participation rate is already low.
 

Drebin

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Aug 22, 2012
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I get that folks have political and other motivations for definitively calling it a recession, but have we ever consistently had job growth during a recession?

In any event, the NBER defines it thusly:

Q: What is a recession? What is an expansion?
A: The NBER's traditional definition of a recession is that it is a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months. The committee's view is that while each of the three criteria—depth, diffusion, and duration—needs to be met individually to some degree, extreme conditions revealed by one criterion may partially offset weaker indications from another.
https://www.nber.org/business-cycle-dating-procedure-frequently-asked-questions

That's because your party is also redefining job growth. Returning to work from a pandemic is not 'growth.' We're still below where we were in total employment before the pandemic. That's not growth. Meanwhile, the LPR is much lower than it was pre-pandemic. So, by all means, call it whatever you want. But it's a recession.
 

IBleedMaroonDawg

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Nov 12, 2007
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I said this was going to be as bad as the Recession in the late 70s and early 80s and I may have been wrong. It may be worse. There are so many factors with this economic situation that we are going to have a hard time recovering IF we can. Inflation, energy prices, unstable labor market, supply chain issues, etc... We've gotten ourselves into a huge mess because of the pandemic and several bad decisions and policy changes. It's past time too approach it from just a political point despite our entire government fiddling while Rome burns inside their little bubble. They don't experience these issues themselves so they're no hurry to try to elevate the situation.

We can fight all we want and at the end of the day we're still waiting for help. It's time for people to hold the entire group of people in charge of our country responsible for the problems every day people have. Any suggestions?
 

IBleedMaroonDawg

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Nov 12, 2007
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The answer is lack of productivity, because of unprecedented supply chain issues. Companies want to build things and sell stuff because the demand is there, so they employ people to do both. Many of those people are sitting on their hands with nothing to do, while still getting paid. That’s the very definition of negative GDP….being able to produce and sell fewer goods and services than you did previously.

Well said but there is no place for common sense in the political dojo. Both sides yell about their political opponents being at fault or having bad ideas and the only thing that happens is an ever increasing stagnation and worsening inflation.
 

dorndawg

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Sep 10, 2012
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That's because your party is also redefining job growth. Returning to work from a pandemic is not 'growth.' We're still below where we were in total employment before the pandemic. That's not growth. Meanwhile, the LPR is much lower than it was pre-pandemic. So, by all means, call it whatever you want. But it's a recession.

Sounds like you've talked yourself into a recession. Since you're panicking, what do you have for sell cheap?
 

dorndawg

Well-known member
Sep 10, 2012
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I said this was going to be as bad as the Recession in the late 70s and early 80s and I may have been wrong. It may be worse. There are so many factors with this economic situation that we are going to have a hard time recovering IF we can. Inflation, energy prices, unstable labor market, supply chain issues, etc... We've gotten ourselves into a huge mess because of the pandemic and several bad decisions and policy changes. It's past time too approach it from just a political point despite our entire government fiddling while Rome burns inside their little bubble. They don't experience these issues themselves so they're no hurry to try to elevate the situation.

We can fight all we want and at the end of the day we're still waiting for help. It's time for people to hold the entire group of people in charge of our country responsible for the problems every day people have. Any suggestions?

Sounds like you've talked yourself into a recession. Since you're panicking, what do you have for sell cheap?
 

dorndawg

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Sep 10, 2012
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I'm rich, so I'm waiting for rock bottom to capitalize.
Fair enough, but from what you're telling me, today might be the best money you can get for a prosthetic leg or a doublewide.*
 

57stratdawg

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Mar 24, 2010
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We can bet on it, if you want. $100 to the Bulldog Initiative.

If the NBER says we were in a recession on 6/30/22 - I’ll pay. If they say we were not - you’ll pay.

Deal?
 

Drebin

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Aug 22, 2012
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We can bet on it, if you want. $100 to the Bulldog Initiative.

If the NBER says we were in a recession on 6/30/22 - I’ll pay. If they say we were not - you’ll pay.

Deal?

I will give $100 to the Bulldog Initiative either way. But I don't trust them not to move the goalposts on their definition. "Consecutive quarters of GDP shrinkage" has been the definition of recession for decades. That was quickly made known in 2020 by the talking heads despite the rather large asterisk that was a global pandemic, so we should stick by the same definition when the other political party is in power, despite an artificially low unemployment number.
 

Drebin

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Aug 22, 2012
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Sounds like you've talked yourself into a recession. Since you're panicking, what do you have for sell cheap?

Strange, but not surprising that you'd react to a truthful statement in this way. And it's clear that you didn't make at least a 24 on the English section of the ACT.
 

dorndawg

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Sep 10, 2012
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Strange, but not surprising that you'd react to a truthful statement in this way. And it's clear that you didn't make at least a 24 on the English section of the ACT.

You can't even begin to imagine how nice my Pontiac is.
 
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