Latest CFP predictions

Anon1733037710

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Dec 1, 2024
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Nobody expects PSU to beat Oregon.

Prognostigators are mixed on whether PSU would remain the 6 seed with a loss to Oregon.

https://www.espn.com/college-footba...ge-football-playoff-picks-predictions-week-14
Oregon fan here. I have the correct amount of fear and respect for Penn State, I think. That's a team that can thump on defense a good bit. If Oregon gets into the wrong sort of game with them, Oregon could stall out on multiple drives and Penn State could definitely stay in the game late.

However I do think Oregon right now has a nastier front 7 than Ohio State, and a D-line comparable to Michigan's. Penn State is going to have to fight tooth and claw. Going to be hard for them to move the ball consistently.

Jordan Burch will be fully healthy. Tez is back. And Harper should be good to go on the O-line. Should be Oregon at full strength.
 

PSUFBFAN

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Oct 7, 2021
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Oregon fan here. I have the correct amount of fear and respect for Penn State, I think. That's a team that can thump on defense a good bit. If Oregon gets into the wrong sort of game with them, Oregon could stall out on multiple drives and Penn State could definitely stay in the game late.

However I do think Oregon right now has a nastier front 7 than Ohio State, and a D-line comparable to Michigan's. Penn State is going to have to fight tooth and claw. Going to be hard for them to move the ball consistently.

Jordan Burch will be fully healthy. Tez is back. And Harper should be good to go on the O-line. Should be Oregon at full strength.
Penn State 28, Wisconsin 13 - back up qb for Penn State played entire second half
Oregon 16, Wisconsin 13

Yea, Penn State is scared $hitless.
 
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WVilleLion23

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Oct 27, 2022
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Oregon fan here. I have the correct amount of fear and respect for Penn State, I think. That's a team that can thump on defense a good bit. If Oregon gets into the wrong sort of game with them, Oregon could stall out on multiple drives and Penn State could definitely stay in the game late.

However I do think Oregon right now has a nastier front 7 than Ohio State, and a D-line comparable to Michigan's. Penn State is going to have to fight tooth and claw. Going to be hard for them to move the ball consistently.

Jordan Burch will be fully healthy. Tez is back. And Harper should be good to go on the O-line. Should be Oregon at full strength.
Oregon definitely should be favored. How close game is or whether or guys can get the W depends on which Penn State team shows up.

I’m excited and nervous at the same time.
 

Artful Dodger

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Oct 30, 2021
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Oregon fan here. I have the correct amount of fear and respect for Penn State, I think. That's a team that can thump on defense a good bit. If Oregon gets into the wrong sort of game with them, Oregon could stall out on multiple drives and Penn State could definitely stay in the game late.

However I do think Oregon right now has a nastier front 7 than Ohio State, and a D-line comparable to Michigan's. Penn State is going to have to fight tooth and claw. Going to be hard for them to move the ball consistently.

Jordan Burch will be fully healthy. Tez is back. And Harper should be good to go on the O-line. Should be Oregon at full strength.
Statistically these two teams are very close in all respects. That's why it's a 3.5 point line.
 
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Player2BNamedL8r

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Oct 12, 2021
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Oregon fan here. I have the correct amount of fear and respect for Penn State, I think. That's a team that can thump on defense a good bit. If Oregon gets into the wrong sort of game with them, Oregon could stall out on multiple drives and Penn State could definitely stay in the game late.

However I do think Oregon right now has a nastier front 7 than Ohio State, and a D-line comparable to Michigan's. Penn State is going to have to fight tooth and claw. Going to be hard for them to move the ball consistently.

Jordan Burch will be fully healthy. Tez is back. And Harper should be good to go on the O-line. Should be Oregon at full strength.
Many here harbor a legitimate fear of our coach’s ability to win big games. The talent is there to compete with anybody, especially in this season of mediocrity, but scheme and talent do not frequently coincide in big moments under Franklin. Oregon has a helluva team and should be favored in this game IMO.

I personally think that this championship game is ridiculous and meaningless in the age of a legit cfb playoff…hardly any upside compared to potential injuries to key players.
 
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blion72

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Oct 30, 2021
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Nobody expects PSU to beat Oregon.

Prognostigators are mixed on whether PSU would remain the 6 seed with a loss to Oregon.

https://www.espn.com/college-footba...ge-football-playoff-picks-predictions-week-14
in some ways Penn State is at a disadvantage playing in this CCG, given the odds that we will lose to Oregon. look at the situation:

in CCG with a win we get a bye - so 3 weeks off from next week.
in CCG with a loss, and depending on the margin we may lose the seed to give us home game. with 2 week off.
not in CCG and we get 3 weeks off to recover and a home game.
 

hapval8286

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Nov 2, 2021
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in some ways Penn State is at a disadvantage playing in this CCG, given the odds that we will lose to Oregon. look at the situation:

in CCG with a win we get a bye - so 3 weeks off from next week.
in CCG with a loss, and depending on the margin we may lose the seed to give us home game. with 2 week off.
not in CCG and we get 3 weeks off to recover and a home game.
Not sure if 3 weeks off is such a good thing. As long as we stay healthy through this next game, I think 2 weeks off might be better for staying focused and pumped up going into the playoffs.
 
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CDLionFL

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Oct 25, 2021
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My bracketology:

1 Oregon (conference leader)
2 Texas (conference leader)
3 SMU (conference leader)
4 Boise (G5 leader)

5 Penn St
6 ND
7 OSU
8 Georgia
9 Tennessee
10 Indiana
11 Arizona St (conference leader)
12 Alabama

That fight over the final at-large will be entertaining to listen to. Clemson as a bid stealer will do nothing to quiet it.
 
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Superdave63

Member
Oct 31, 2021
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Our game against Oregon will be a great measuring stick for where we stand nationally. Because of our overall lack of quality opponents this year, I don’t think we really know.

will be interesting to see, one way or the other.
 

NewEra 2014

Well-known member
Oct 12, 2021
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in some ways Penn State is at a disadvantage playing in this CCG, given the odds that we will lose to Oregon. look at the situation:

in CCG with a win we get a bye - so 3 weeks off from next week.
in CCG with a loss, and depending on the margin we may lose the seed to give us home game. with 2 week off.
not in CCG and we get 3 weeks off to recover and a home game.
I think it is more likely that we get the 5 seed if we lose in a competitive game against Oregon. That provides a very nice playoff path.
 

WDLion

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Oct 12, 2021
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Many here harbor a legitimate fear of our coach’s ability to win big games. The talent is there to compete with anybody, especially in this season of mediocrity, but scheme and talent do not frequently coincide in big moments under Franklin. Oregon has a helluva team and should be favored in this game IMO.

I personally think that this championship game is ridiculous and meaningless in the age of a legit cfb playoff…hardly any upside compared to potential injuries to key players.
Upside. $$,$$$,$$$
 
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Nits1989

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Oct 29, 2021
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Even funnier, ESPN’s FPI contradicts their talking heads and gives PSU a slight advantage over Oregon. PSU has 50.9% win probability, Oregon has 49.1% chance.
 

Mufasa94

Active member
Oct 12, 2021
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tOSU took a fall in the coaches poll to #8. Bama came in at 11. If the CFP does the same, no home game for Buckeyes and Bama in unless Clemson wins (maybe still if so).
 

doctornick

Active member
Oct 12, 2021
356
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Gotta reluctantly agree. It's like having a game to determine the AFC North champion prior to the NFL playoffs.

The conference championship is a real defined accomplishment with defined rules of participation and accessible to all teams in the conference.

The "national championship" remains just a mythical popularity contest.
 

FTLPSU

Well-known member
Oct 6, 2021
866
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Our game against Oregon will be a great measuring stick for where we stand nationally. Because of our overall lack of quality opponents this year, I don’t think we really know.

will be interesting to see, one way or the other.
Great post!

Our game will be a great measuring stick nationally because majority of our comparisons are UM & OSU. With regards to the aforementioned its usually their great upfront on both sides of the ball-and we are just right there. So this will be a national coast-to-coast match up for sure with less emphasis on how dominant and consistent each teams lines are.

Oregon hasn't really played anyone either but OSU, and as we can see Ryan Day is not exactly the best big game day coach ;) We will see how our HC and coordinators game plan for this one. I expect JF to lay it all out there cuz he is playing with house money.
 

PSUSignore

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Oct 25, 2021
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in some ways Penn State is at a disadvantage playing in this CCG, given the odds that we will lose to Oregon. look at the situation:

in CCG with a win we get a bye - so 3 weeks off from next week.
in CCG with a loss, and depending on the margin we may lose the seed to give us home game. with 2 week off.
not in CCG and we get 3 weeks off to recover and a home game.
There's zero chance that we fall too far to host a playoff game with a loss. None.
 
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Bones80

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Oct 19, 2021
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Good to know.
Wish I had your confidence. Here’s a worst case scenario: PS loses to Oregon by 14. GA beats TX. Byes go to Ducks, Dawgs, SMU and Boise. ND with 1 loss and lots of national support gets 5 spot. TX with 2 losses and ranked ahead of PS now gets seeded 6. PSU falls to 7 and a much more difficult path. So we need to either beat Ducks of have horns beat dawgs to keep 5/6 seed.
 

PSUSignore

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Oct 25, 2021
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Wish I had your confidence. Here’s a worst case scenario: PS loses to Oregon by 14. GA beats TX. Byes go to Ducks, Dawgs, SMU and Boise. ND with 1 loss and lots of national support gets 5 spot. TX with 2 losses and ranked ahead of PS now gets seeded 6. PSU falls to 7 and a much more difficult path. So we need to either beat Ducks of have horns beat dawgs to keep 5/6 seed.
And at 7 we still host a playoff game which was the original comment. Ideally we want 5 or 6 and I think they will keep ND behind us so we will get it, but there's no chance or scenario where we fall to 9 or lower.
 
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blion72

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Oct 30, 2021
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And at 7 we still host a playoff game which was the original comment. Ideally we want 5 or 6 and I think they will keep ND behind us so we will get it, but there's no chance or scenario where we fall to 9 or lower.
that is the key - not falling to where we are 9 or worse in seed.
 

PSUSignore

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Oct 25, 2021
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that is the key - not falling to where we are 9 or worse in seed.
We won't. PSU basically has 5 seeds in play: 1,2,5,6,7. If we win, we are 1 or 2. Win and Texas loses, we are definitely #1. If we lose and Texas loses, Texas most likely gets 5 depending on margin of victory and how the two games look, and we get 6 or 7 depending if they decide to move ND ahead of us which I think is unlikely. If we lose and Texas wins we get 5 or 6 with the same scenario regarding ND. I do not think there's any chance a 2 loss UGA or OSU jumps over us.

If Clemson wins the ACC by a large margin I suppose there's a chance they jump up to #3 or #4 but SMU would fall far enough that it won't affect our seed anyway.

We should be rooting for Texas on Saturday to try to keep the 5 seed in play.
 
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PSUFTG

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Nov 1, 2021
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We won't. PSU basically has 5 seeds in play: 1,2,5,6,7. If we win, we are 1 or 2. Win and Texas loses, we are definitely #1. If we lose and Texas loses, Texas gets 5 and we get 6 or 7 depending if they decide to move ND ahead of us which I think is unlikely. If we lose and Texas wins we get 5 or 6 with the same scenario regarding ND. I do not think there's any chance a 2 loss UGA or OSU jumps over us.
I think you nailed it
 

BobPSU92

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Oct 12, 2021
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in some ways Penn State is at a disadvantage playing in this CCG, given the odds that we will lose to Oregon. look at the situation:

in CCG with a win we get a bye - so 3 weeks off from next week.
in CCG with a loss, and depending on the margin we may lose the seed to give us home game. with 2 week off.
not in CCG and we get 3 weeks off to recover and a home game.

OBVIOUSLY. o_O , T™️osu lost to um just to screw us.
 
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