Leach QBs & Will

UncleChuck

Member
Aug 6, 2021
80
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Something we don't mention enough is the fact Will is the youngest QB to have ever been given the reins in a Leach offense...on top of that every other QB to play meaningful snaps for Leach has at least a full redshirt season while Will is one spring season behind.

<google-sheets-html-origin style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">
2000TTU7–63–5KingsburyR. SO
2001TTU7–54–4KingsburyR. JR
2002TTU9–55–3KingsburyR. SR
2003TTU8–54–4SymonsR. SR
2004TTU8–45–3CumbieR. SR
2005TTU9–36–2HodgesR. SR
2006TTU8–54–4HarrellR. SO
2007TTU9–44–4HarrellR. JR
2008TTU11–27–1HarrellR. SR
2009TTU8–45–3PottsR. JR
2012WSU3–91–8Tuel (SR) / Halliday (R. SO)
2013WSU6–74–5HallidayR. JR
2014WSU3–92–7Halliday (R. SR) / Falk (R. FR)
2015WSU9–46–3FalkR. SO
2016WSU8–57–2FalkR. JR
2017WSU9–46–3FalkR. SR
2018WSU11–27–2MinshewTransfer - SR
2019WSU6–73–6GordonR. SR

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As a redshirt sophomore in Leach's first season at Wazzu, Halliday split some time with Tuel (who had a toothpick for a collarbone). Falk is the only redshirt freshman to start for Leach, but that was only the final three games after Halliday snapped his leg clean in half. Leach's best seasons have come with a 5th year Senior QB with 4 years of reps in his system or Gardner Minshew.

Kingsbury was a redshirt sophomore when Leach took over, so I pulled his second year playing under Leach. Harrell and Falk were both redshirt Sophomores that played in a handful of games as rFR when they took over. The stats below are all comparable to this year for Will in terms of experience starting with Leach - however they are all at least one year older in terms of college experience.

Projecting Will's start out to 11 games (let's throw out Alabama, because I don't expect him to add to many of these stats in two weeks) he is right on par with the other three despite having less overall college experience.

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ClassGamesCompAttComp%YardYds/AttTDINTRAT
Kingsbury (2001)rJR113655296935026.6259136.8
Harrell (2007)rSO1341261766.845557.43811145.5
Falk (2015)rSO1244764469.445617.1388145.9
Will (projection)SO114736257540976.6315144.7

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- Most completions despite less games
- highest completion rate, although I expect that to fall the second half of the season
- about 500 yards less than Harrell and Falk, but also playing less games
- 7 less touchdowns, but again less games played

I have been leaning towards the Will has a noodle arm camp and I believe he is a bit gun-shy after watching KJ throw the ball more to the other team than anyone else. But looking deeper in to the stats, he really is not that far off from a historical production standpoint. As he gets more confident in the intermediate to deep throws - which usually comes with experience - I think he can get to the 7.5 yds/att.

Right now, we just are not converting enough production to points. I think this is the biggest factor of being so young.

TLDR - Will is operating in uncharted territory for a Leach QB and is performing on par. This offense requires high degree of experience that we won't have on a regular basis until 2024. I think that is where we can start to truly judge the validity of the Air Raid in the SEC. Be patient.
 

UncleChuck

Member
Aug 6, 2021
80
37
18
This thread screwed up when I posted back in October and was added to the bottom of the second page for some reason - so I figured I would update it.


QBClassGamesAttemptsCompletionsComp%YardsYard/AttTDINT
Kingsbury (2001)rJR113655296935026.6259136.8
Harrell (2007)rSO1341261766.845557.43811145.5
Falk (2015)rSO1244764469.445617.1388145.9
Will (updated proj.)SO1352969975.748396.93811148

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Some takeaways:
- I can now project out to 13 games, which is fun
- Will's completion percent and QBR have only gotten better & has the highest QBR
- I still do not believe Will has the strongest arm in the league, but it is stronger than Petyon's truly noodle arm that won a Super Bowl
- Kingsbury is the best scenario comparison b/c the Air Raid was still being installed in the TTU program - Will is ahead Kliff (even through 10 games - 200 more yards, 4 more TDs) and KK started the entire year before under Leach so he had and extra 6 games under his belt

*This original post was prior to the Alabama game. I think Will was given a whole lot more control in pre-snap decisions / run calls two games later against Kentucky

Original TLDR - Will is operating in uncharted territory for a Leach QB and is performing on par. This offense requires high degree of experience that we won't have on a regular basis until 2024. I think that is where we can start to truly judge the validity of the Air Raid in the SEC. Be patient.

New TLDR: Will is outperforming the other QBs in similar positions. Experience (team-wide, but especially at QB) is what makes this thing hum. We
have proven that Air Raid is viable against most SEC, just need to prove it against a top end Defense to close the book on it. Next two years with Will are going to be a lot of fun to watch.
 
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