Lets say we beat WMI, Arkansas, and Southern Miss before heading into the OM game...

[STATEgrad04]

For the ones that are willing to give him another year at 5-7 "but must show improvement next year", how well do you think recruiting is going to go in that scenario? Not only will we not be able to recruit, we will not be able to hold on to the few players that show promise as well. They are seeing more than we see on a weekly basis, and that cant be good.

If that is the case then we are officially in a death spiral unless we make the decision to get out of it. Anything short of making a bowl game will only hurt us for next year. Even at 6-6 its going to be a really tough sell to recruits to be able to say that the process is working.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

Thats a record of 5-6.

If we beat Ole Miss, finish .500 for the regular season, and are bowl eligible - will the crazies that want to fire Arnett now be happy enough to give him a 2nd season?
If we lose to Ole Miss, finish 5-7 for the regular season, and end with 1 conference win - will the hesitant who dont like firing a coach after 1 season be willing to jump on board with a new coach search?





There are always people who are willing to take a risk at a historically middling program within a major conference. Maybe they strike gold and are successful, which can be parlayed to better pay and/or a higher profile job in a few years. At worst, they are paid millions and will go back to being an assistant.
But at the same time, I do think the pool of interested and really attractive options is heavily narrowed when the school shows they are willing to fire someone after 1 season and a 5-7 record.

Now if we finish with 3 wins, Croom-style? Well thats another story entirely.

If we are 6 wins+ he stays. If we are 5 wins, you have to look at what's available to you to hire. Some years the coaching carousel makes no sense to jump into, other years, you have a better shot of getting a quality coach. It's results PLUS availability of for sure better head coaches that should be the decision maker.

 

[Walkthedawg]

The problem is that 6-6 is our ceiling with a roster that has some pretty good talent. And it's pretty obvious that we have a head coach that doesn't know what he's doing. So it's not really about

Absolutely. It’s not only THAT we are losing. It’s HOW we are losing. We have very experienced players out there and they cannot function as an offense or a defense.

In the LSU game… we had both tackles pull on a play to block the opposite side. We are lucky they didn’t run head on into each other. Of course it led to a gang rush to the QB. We have a senior QB that I’d throwing short. Dunno if it’s miscommunicated routes or if it’s sheer terror with 5 people running toward him almost unmolested. It’s malfunction after malfunction that is wasting downs.

These players practiced and played to one system for three years. You just cannot come in and completely overhaul everything.. make the playcalling more difficult.. and change up schemes and expect it to run. This HAD to be showing up in practice and game preparations. And they ran with it anyway.

And next year. Oh man. We are going to be dependent on less experience.

 

[johnson86-1]

I don't understand all the people talking about all the talent on this team.

We won 8 games last year against a much stronger SEC and returned a lot of players. Certainly in a normal year we'd be screwed in the SEC, but with the SEC down, we have enough talent that we should look ok in most games.

The counterargument is that while we have plenty of solid players on D and most of them belong on the field in the SEC, so many of them are on the slower side that the cumulative lack of speed is just fatal to our ability to defend.

 

[Indndawg]

Thats a record of 5-6.

If we beat Ole Miss, finish .500 for the regular season, and are bowl eligible - will the crazies that want to fire Arnett now be happy enough to give him a 2nd season?
If we lose to Ole Miss, finish 5-7 for the regular season, and end with 1 conference win - will the hesitant who dont like firing a coach after 1 season be willing to jump on board with a new coach search?





There are always people who are willing to take a risk at a historically middling program within a major conference. Maybe they strike gold and are successful, which can be parlayed to better pay and/or a higher profile job in a few years. At worst, they are paid millions and will go back to being an assistant.
But at the same time, I do think the pool of interested and really attractive options is heavily narrowed when the school shows they are willing to fire someone after 1 season and a 5-7 record.

Now if we finish with 3 wins, Croom-style? Well thats another story entirely.

Welp, if there's a combination of fans not showing+no improvement on field+ a losing record (including a bad loss to Mississippi)=Keenum's hand will be forced to tell Selmon its done for the entire staff (save Bump). A good start is to start playing Wright more and blitz almost every down

 

[Podgy]

5 wins: nope. 7 wins: yes. He has to show that he's improved as an HC

 

[paindonthurt]

Thats a record of 5-6.

If we beat Ole Miss, finish .500 for the regular season, and are bowl eligible - will the crazies that want to fire Arnett now be happy enough to give him a 2nd season?
If we lose to Ole Miss, finish 5-7 for the regular season, and end with 1 conference win - will the hesitant who dont like firing a coach after 1 season be willing to jump on board with a new coach search?





There are always people who are willing to take a risk at a historically middling program within a major conference. Maybe they strike gold and are successful, which can be parlayed to better pay and/or a higher profile job in a few years. At worst, they are paid millions and will go back to being an assistant.
But at the same time, I do think the pool of interested and really attractive options is heavily narrowed when the school shows they are willing to fire someone after 1 season and a 5-7 record.

Now if we finish with 3 wins, Croom-style? Well thats another story entirely.

He isn’t getting fired at 6-6 and he shouldn’t.

people act like we had the same talent coming back as 2018. It’s not even close.

our defense isn’t very good.

some will *****. Some will piss and Moan but he’ll be back at 6-6 unless Zac Selmon has a no brainer in the bag.

 

[paindonthurt]

The problem is that 6-6 is our ceiling with a roster that has some pretty good talent. And it's pretty obvious that we have a head coach that doesn't know what he's doing. So it's not really about record.

BUT....that being said, if he beats Ole Miss, our mouth-breathing segment of the fanbase will get in their feelz and make sure that he gets another year. That is what it boils down to.

Our talent isn’t that great.

 

[ChinaDogSunflower]

It really depends what those losses look like

 

[MagnoliaHunter]

We won 8 games last year against a much stronger SEC and returned a lot of players. Certainly in a normal year we'd be screwed in the SEC, but with the SEC down, we have enough talent that we should look ok in most games.

The counterargument is that while we have plenty of solid players on D and most of them belong on the field in the SEC, so many of them are on the slower side that the cumulative lack of speed is just fatal to our ability to defend.

Every ol is a new starter at his position except one. All 3 starting receivers are new starters. We lost our co-starting rb.

DL Pickering has underperformed his whole career. DEs are new. I like Jett and Bookie but they are slow. Strong Side linebacker is new. 4 of the 5 DBs are new starters.

 

[60sdog]

6-6 and I can stomach a return. 5-7 with this roster and schedule is inexcusable, even changing offensive schemes so severely.

We're sitting at 2-3 with a glorified scrimmage and an off-week. Starting this past Saturday night, Arnett and his staff have three weeks to finish perfecting the offensive plays we can execute and come up with a workable plan with the defensive players you have on hand. You need to at least slow down a bad Arkansas team, do the same for an Auburn team that can't pass, and force Kentucky's QB to win the game with his arm (which he might very well do).

If you can't do that, it's time to part ways.

All three of those teams are solidly better than this train wreck we have.

 

[60sdog]

5-7 or 4-6 is about as good as we can expect with this roster, from the games I've seen so far. Maybe they can improve. But just going on the eye test, we ain't got it talent wise.

5-7 is wishful thinking

 

[60sdog]

6-6, he gets another year but if you take a step back, you gotta can him. If he's anything below 5-7 this year, you gotta can him.

No way 5-7.

 

[johnson86-1]

Every ol is a new starter at his position except one.

That's weak sauce. We lost Quinton Sharp. We return Dollar Bill, Nick Jones, Kam Jones, and Cole Smith, all of which are upper classmen and have had lots of playing time. Then Lasoya what's his name returned after playing a good bit and we also return Percy Lewis, who was at least highly rated coming out of JUCO.

All 3 starting receivers are new starters.

Losing RaRa hurt, although I think Tulu was just as good if we would have ever utilized him properly. Austin and Ducking were backed up by better talent if they were developed.

We lost our co-starting rb.

Woody and Dillon Johnson were pretty equal.

There's just no reason for us to suck so badly on offense other than coaching. Certainly don't have the talent to light the world on fire, but we shouldn't have regressed.

DL Pickering has underperformed his whole career. DEs are new. I like Jett and Bookie but they are slow. Strong Side linebacker is new. 4 of the 5 DBs are new starters.

On Defense people were certainly underestimating how much we lost. How much of the regression is just the downgrade in speed versus a downgrade in coaching is hard to say. If we weren't so bad on the offensive side of the ball I'd probably think it was talent downgrade and that Arnett didn't let the defensive coaching slip that badly. Just don't know.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

That's weak sauce. We lost Quinton Sharp. We return Dollar Bill, Nick Jones, Kam Jones, and Cole Smith, all of which are upper classmen and have had lots of playing time. Then Lasoya what's his name returned after playing a good bit and we also return Percy Lewis, who was at least highly rated coming out of JUCO.


Losing RaRa hurt, although I think Tulu was just as good if we would have ever utilized him properly. Austin and Ducking were backed up by better talent if they were developed.


Woody and Dillon Johnson were pretty equal.

There's just no reason for us to suck so badly on offense other than coaching. Certainly don't have the talent to light the world on fire, but we shouldn't have regressed.



On Defense people were certainly underestimating how much we lost. How much of the regression is just the downgrade in speed versus a downgrade in coaching is hard to say. If we weren't so bad on the offensive side of the ball I'd probably think it was talent downgrade and that Arnett didn't let the defensive coaching slip that badly. Just don't know.

I agree that we have a big problem with coaching. I think the biggest problem is playcalling. I don't know how to describe this, but a good offense has a rhythm. We might have a rhythm for one series, and then we lose it. Most of our scores have come from individual effort, not on a scheme created by coaching/calling the right plays.

 

[johnson86-1]

I agree that we have a big problem with coaching. I think the biggest problem is playcalling. I don't know how to describe this, but a good offense has a rhythm. We might have a rhythm for one series, and then we lose it. Most of our scores have come from individual effort, not on a scheme created by coaching/calling the right plays.

Certainly could be playcalling (the way we overcommitted to the run against Arizona makes me think that's a huge part of it). But you also look like you don't have rhythm when you have players keep blowing assignments because they don't understand the offense. And again, while we returned a lot, it's still just ok talent. I never expected our offense to be a strength this year. But having an OL with this much playing time under its belt is a huge advantage if you don't 17 it up by confusing them, which we apparently did.

 

[BigDawg0074]

I think what matters is how the performance trends across all twelve or thirteen games. If they look as disjointed and inconsistent all year as they have so far and they miss out on a bowl, I think he’s gone. I’m sure the discussions between Arnette and his boss matter quite a bit too.

We don’t know what questions are being asked in that room and what the responses are. It’s a tough position to be in. The current QB can’t do what they want but the backup is apparently not quite ready either. I’m really hoping we get to see Parson take over next season because I know that dude has a cannon and is accurate. A new regime would likely turnover most of the modest recruiting success we have built for several years.

 

[Ibdancin]

Thats a record of 5-6.

If we beat Ole Miss, finish .500 for the regular season, and are bowl eligible - will the crazies that want to fire Arnett now be happy enough to give him a 2nd season?
If we lose to Ole Miss, finish 5-7 for the regular season, and end with 1 conference win - will the hesitant who dont like firing a coach after 1 season be willing to jump on board with a new coach search?





There are always people who are willing to take a risk at a historically middling program within a major conference. Maybe they strike gold and are successful, which can be parlayed to better pay and/or a higher profile job in a few years. At worst, they are paid millions and will go back to being an assistant.
But at the same time, I do think the pool of interested and really attractive options is heavily narrowed when the school shows they are willing to fire someone after 1 season and a 5-7 record.

Now if we finish with 3 wins, Croom-style? Well thats another story entirely.

No. We are in a bad situation and we have an opportunity to get out of it based on contract and grab a proven coach. We are going to be very bad next year due to the heavy SR class that starts.

We need to bring in somebody that's proven and attracts skill positions on offense that does better in the portal. We will be starting over next year and we might as well start over with a new staff that's proven.

 

[Ibdancin]

We fired Moorhead after 2 straight bowls and undefeated vs Ole Miss. We then snagged a P5 head coach. So him being 5-7 won't matter. State can afford a top 15 salary.

I do think NIL has changed the SEC for now. The depth of the conference is gone.

I mean, we got other issues we are facing too. We have TX and OU joining and that's just more recruits gone from our pool. We need to make a change while we can.

 

[Ibdancin]

I don’t know what it would take for me to want Arnett gone after just one season. I mean, I’m both incredibly disappointed and worried about what we’re seeing, but barring the team just quitting on him, I just don’t like canning a guy, especially a football coach, after one year.

With that said, I am struggling, and I mean REALLY struggling, to find Arnett’s mark on this team. Recruiting? Nope. Attitude and aggression? Nope. A fun, high flying offense? Lol. In other words, where in the hell is this ship headed? With Jans, we saw it last year, and the basketball team may fall flat on their butts this year in true MSU fashion, but we see the direction. Year 1 under Leach was a grind, but we saw glimpses of where we were headed. With this football team, I don’t have any idea as to what we’re trying to be. Everything about it except our freshman kicker is an absolute mess

I guess I say all that to say that Arnett deserves another season to get this right, but my gosh man. There need to be some clear signs of direction next year, and frankly, I don’t know where it’s gonna come from with this roster

We just lost a recruit to Ole Miss. A WR. Nix convinced Magee that he was a bigger priority to Ole Miss due to the fact that State didn't push for his commitment until after the Bulldogs landed Stonka Burnside and JJ Harrell. Nix reportedly shared that the fact that State pushed them to commit before they did him that he was farther down the Bulldog wish list.

Echoles was a State lean... now Ole Miss commit.

 

[Ibdancin]

For the ones that are willing to give him another year at 5-7 "but must show improvement next year", how well do you think recruiting is going to go in that scenario? Not only will we not be able to recruit, we will not be able to hold on to the few players that show promise as well. They are seeing more than we see on a weekly basis, and that cant be good.

If that is the case then we are officially in a death spiral unless we make the decision to get out of it. Anything short of making a bowl game will only hurt us for next year. Even at 6-6 its going to be a really tough sell to recruits to be able to say that the process is working.

It ain't going well now!

 

[Ibdancin]

He isn’t getting fired at 6-6 and he shouldn’t.

people act like we had the same talent coming back as 2018. It’s not even close.

our defense isn’t very good.

some will *****. Some will piss and Moan but he’ll be back at 6-6 unless Zac Selmon has a no brainer in the bag.

If our defense is talentless, then that's on our current HC, he has been recruiting as DC for 3 years.

 

[paindonthurt]

If our defense is talentless, then that's on our current HC, he has been recruiting as DC for 3 years.

No one said talent less but leach had a bunch of people on staff not known for recruiting.

Offensjve coaches recruit defensive plahers
Defensive coaches recruit offensive players
And vise versa

they generally recruit based on area

down year talent wise on defense
Leach dying
Coaching change
Offensive change

Here we are.

 

[blitz2Win]

No one said talent less but leach had a bunch of people on staff not known for recruiting.

Offensjve coaches recruit defensive plahers
Defensive coaches recruit offensive players
And vise versa

they generally recruit based on area

down year talent wise on defense
Leach dying
Coaching change
Offensive change

Here we are.

Leach seemed to recruit well enough to go 9-4. Parson, Seth Davis, Creed, I don’t think he had any issues getting skill players. He got 5 out of the top 10 players in State last year, what did is This staff getting with all the in state ties we heard so much about ? Jack squat

 

[OG Goat Holder]

No one said talent less but leach had a bunch of people on staff not known for recruiting.

Offensjve coaches recruit defensive plahers
Defensive coaches recruit offensive players
And vise versa

they generally recruit based on area

down year talent wise on defense
Leach dying
Coaching change
Offensive change

Here we are.

Talent may be a valid thing. Leach was known for taking average players and making them better. Not every coach is as good as he was about that. And I do think our defensive efforts declined a bit due to the focus on offense.

I’m willing to give these guys a shot but the rest of the season must see improvement.

 

[greenbean.sixpack]

We fired Moorhead after 2 straight bowls and undefeated vs Ole Miss. We then snagged a P5 head coach. So him being 5-7 won't matter. State can afford a top 15 salary.

I do think NIL has changed the SEC for now. The depth of the conference is gone.

this is the answer. But i don't think we fire him unless we go 4-8. 5-7 with an upset of OM and he stays.

 

[sandwolf.sixpack]

Watching the NIL play out in the SEC has been about the most interesting thing about this season so far. It has given me hope that IF/WHEN we hire the right coach we can compete even without the wealth of some of the other schools.

What about NIL makes you feel like we can compete with the right coach? Because I feel just the opposite. I feel like NIL pretty much eliminates us from signing the Jeff Simmons and Chris Jones of the world. And then when we do find a diamond in the rough, we are going to have to fight to keep them from getting scooped up in the portal.

So please, tell me what it is you're seeing that I'm not, because I could use some hope.

 

[thatsbaseball]

What about NIL makes you feel like we can compete with the right coach? Because I feel just the opposite. I feel like NIL pretty much eliminates us from signing the Jeff Simmons and Chris Jones of the world. And then when we do find a diamond in the rough, we are going to have to fight to keep them from getting scooped up in the portal.

So please, tell me what it is you're seeing that I'm not, because I could use some hope.

My post is poorly worded. IMO the right coach at a school like State can utilize the transfer portal (not the NIL) to build a competitive program but he's going to have to be 1) a good coach 2) a good talent evaluator 3) a hell-of-a good salesman. Sure these transfers are going to want money but many will have the sense to know/fear if they don't get some playing time/exposure in a decent program under a good coach they'll end up being a security guard at a tire plant. Finding that "right" coach is going to be like drawing into an inside straight (particularly with our bumbling administration) but it can be done.

 

[beachbumdawg]

Our talent isn’t that great.

Well he’s been here how long on the defensive side? Wasn’t he responsible for getting/signing off on the talent that is there?

but to someone else’s point- that defense is slow

 

[travis.sixpack]

I hope Selmon already has a new coach picked out and waiting in the wings.

You’re kidding, right? When is the last time an AD had a coach “waiting in the wings” unless it was a coach-in-waiting deal like Jimbo/FSU? The football program is too important for a first-time AD to call the shots. This is a Keenum decision. If we’re 4-7 going into the Egg Bowl, we had better have a search firm engaged and gathering candidate options.

I don’t want Selmon anywhere near this decision. Hopefully Keenum will pull the trigger quickly if we go 0-8.

 

[travis.sixpack]

The good news is, because there have been so many new hirings the past couple of years, I don’t think there will be many P4 jobs open for 2024. I think the only other SEC jobs open will be UF and maybe Ark (but I doubt it).

 

[paindonthurt]

Well he’s been here how long on the defensive side? Wasn’t he responsible for getting/signing off on the talent that is there?

but to someone else’s point- that defense is slow

To my point. The defense is slow.

But Mike Leach wasn't known for hiring the best recruiters. And the defensive coordinator doesn't do all of the recruiting. He doesn't recruit all of the defensive players either.

It was a down year for defense for us.

It was an up year for offense and returning starters, but it wasn't like we had an offense returning with tons of nfl talent on it.

 

[Ranchdawg]

What about NIL makes you feel like we can compete with the right coach? Because I feel just the opposite. I feel like NIL pretty much eliminates us from signing the Jeff Simmons and Chris Jones of the world. And then when we do find a diamond in the rough, we are going to have to fight to keep them from getting scooped up in the portal.

So please, tell me what it is you're seeing that I'm not, because I could use some hope.

Well, I would agree except for the fact that we outbid Alabama for those players and they were pissed! Remember how Alabama said Simmons shouldn't play?

 

[Ranchdawg]

You’re kidding, right? When is the last time an AD had a coach “waiting in the wings” unless it was a coach-in-waiting deal like Jimbo/FSU? The football program is too important for a first-time AD to call the shots. This is a Keenum decision. If we’re 4-7 going into the Egg Bowl, we had better have a search firm engaged and gathering candidate options.

I don’t want Selmon anywhere near this decision. Hopefully Keenum will pull the trigger quickly if we go 0-8.

Byrne said he kept a list of the top 5 coaches for each sport so he could contact them as soon as necessary. I trust Selmon to make the decision! That's his job title. If he can't make a decision then we hired a dud.

 

[Rupert Jenkins]

Man, 2 years ago we were not good because Leach was a gimmick coach running an antiquated offense. Now we suck because Leach is gone and he could make chicken salad out of chicken s*&t. Can we not get our freaking story straight ? The deal is after we get this break and come out to play Arkansas and Auburn Selmon needs to make his evaluation right then. I feel sure KJ will bend our D over and give it to them good. If we look pathetic and lose he needs to get some feelers out and see who might be interested. If we can upgrade by all means make it happen. If we look better those 2 games and win one or both watch the rest of the year and evaluate. But he can certainly look around and do some window shopping. And nobody should care if it's common knowledge that he is looking

 

[bulldognation]

Let's review... Mullen went 5-7 off what Croom left him against a stupid difficult schedule. Moorhead went 8-4 with what Mullen left him. But I think everybody knew what team Moorhead inherited and he just didn't deliver on the talk and offense looked crappy at best.

Arnett has me scratching my head on the decisions all throughout the game. He inherited a 9-4 team, held together the last Leach recruiting class and by all accounts should have had us in a position to be talking about which bowl slot we'll be in this year. But that's not where we are... Arnett brought in new assistants and promised a more balanced offense that has yet to materialize on the field, That's not to mention the fact that the defense is giving our opponents 40 or so points per game. He put himself in this situation. If we do anything less than absolutely crush W. Mich tomorrow then we'll still be here talking about whether or not to keep him after he lets the bowl streak come to an end on his watch.

 

[travis.sixpack]

Byrne said he kept a list of the top 5 coaches for each sport so he could contact them as soon as necessary. I trust Selmon to make the decision! That's his job title. If he can't make a decision then we hired a dud.

A list of coaches isn’t the same thing as a coach waiting in the wings.

I don’t trust Selmon after he gave Lemonis another year.

 

[AstroDog]

I basically agree with you. I don't expect us to look better, but if we beat Arkansas and are competitive against UK, Auburn, and Ole Miss, as bad as 5-7 will feel, I could at least chalk up the early struggles to just having a first year head coach that made some big mistakes. The only thing is that if we actually are playing up to our potential, we should get two out of those. Really should have gotten 2 out of those and USCe, and he just made his job harder.

If we go 6-6, I'll feel ok. Not great, but provided we get there by actually beating two SEC teams and look like we belong in the SEC the other games and it's not that we get our *** kicked in the losses but squeak out a win against Arkansas and then get a fluke win where the other team has lots of turnovers and/or special teams miscues that let us turn a 14 point loss into a 3 point win, that will indicate to me that he figured out a lot of things in the course of his first year and if we can put enough NIL money together to give him a chance, he can be competitive.

He HAS to have a great Portal signing sheet to fill in the number of losses we're getting ready to have. And even if he does well in the Portal, it's still gonna take a herculean effort to put together a team that can win 6 or 7 games.

 

[blitz2Win]

Let's review... Mullen went 5-7 off what Croom left him against a stupid difficult schedule. Moorhead went 8-4 with what Mullen left him. But I think everybody knew what team Moorhead inherited and he just didn't deliver on the talk and offense looked crappy at best.

Arnett has me scratching my head on the decisions all throughout the game. He inherited a 9-4 team, held together the last Leach recruiting class and by all accounts should have had us in a position to be talking about which bowl slot we'll be in this year. But that's not where we are... Arnett brought in new assistants and promised a more balanced offense that has yet to materialize on the field, That's not to mention the fact that the defense is giving our opponents 40 or so points per game. He put himself in this situation. If we do anything less than absolutely crush W. Mich tomorrow then we'll still be here talking about whether or not to keep him after he lets the bowl streak come to an end on his watch.

Yep, he’s in way over his head. For some reason every analyst in the country, especially Vegas-and they arent Wrong often, knew the year would be a massive implosion as soon as Arnett fired the whole staff and decided to go round peg square hole. it was sort of obvious.

 

[Ranchdawg]

A list of coaches isn’t the same thing as a coach waiting in the wings.

I don’t trust Selmon after he gave Lemonis another year.

So you want Selmon fired? I want Selmon to have a list and to have already contacted a couple to feel them out. Firing a national championship coach is a little tougher. Let's hope Lemonis gets it together this year.