May CPI Numbers…

[57stratdawg]

Released in the AM. Who knows what top line will look like with oil prices skyrocketing.

All eyes will be on the core reading. Will those interest rate hikes slow down shelter? Markets will be watching. A good reading should send the NASDAQ higher. Another hot one and it’ll sting.

We’ll see bright and early tomorrow..

 

[Captain Ron]

2045511[/URL]]Released in the AM. Who knows what top line will look like with oil prices skyrocketing.

All eyes will be on the core reading. Will those interest rate hikes slow down shelter? Markets will be watching. A good reading should send the NASDAQ higher. Another hot one and it’ll sting.

We’ll see bright and early tomorrow..

i would take the over. April was a little lower since fuel was down slightly. In May, oil was higher which I bet will drive it right back up.

 

[paindonthurt]

I dont know what the numbers will be but we are in a ****** spot right now no matter what they say.

 

[karlchilders.sixpack]

7:30 Central

 

[GloryDawg]

Well from my understanding both Target and Wal Mart are trying to absorb some of the inflations. When they announced this last month their stock went down. I have noticed Wal Mart is way less than Kroger but Kroger is running specials now.

 

[57stratdawg]

Comes in a bit hot. Core at 6% vs 5.9% expectation:

[TWEET]1535239849745207298[/TWEET]

 

[Cooterpoot]

Vote everyone out. It's about all we can do.

 

[Leeshouldveflanked]

Vote everyone out. It's about all we can do.

The strategy of driving up energy/fuel cost to get people to buy into Green Energy is stupid. Innovation is what will make Green Energy succeed.

 

[mstateglfr]

Vote everyone out. It's about all we can do.

Seems very 'baby with the bathwater' to do this. There may be good and effective elected officials that are removed in your scenario. Also, many who could be seen as having gotten us here are not currently serving. Then there is the reality that inflation is heavily tied to the global economy so much of this is outside our control as a country. Installing new people in the US wont fix global inflation.

 

[mstateglfr]

The strategy of driving up energy/fuel cost to get people to buy into Green Energy is stupid. Innovation is what will make Green Energy succeed.

This could be worth reading to some, since it touches on your comment and applies to the thread's topic. It is, in my view, a pretty reasonable analysis of how there are multiple reasons for increased gas prices.
https://fortune.com/2022/06/08/why-are-gas-prices-so-high-is-joe-biden-to-blame/

 

[57stratdawg]

Speaking of global inflation - check out how bright red basically every country in the world is today.

For the record, I could probably live in the Maldives:

[TWEET]1535233364084641795[/TWEET]

 

[missouridawg]

The strategy of driving up energy/fuel cost to get people to buy into Green Energy is stupid. Innovation is what will make Green Energy succeed.

Anyone who wants green energy needs to push the **** out of nuclear. Solar, wind, and hydro is not a feasible, nor reliable way to power the planet.

 

[paindonthurt]

Let’s vote anyone out who’s got over 20 years

And inflation isn’t solely on this current admin but it’s directly related to 2 things

1. COVID which wasn’t really controllable but there are things to help logistical issues that could have been done over the last 1.5 years.

2. Giving **** tons of money to foreign countries and handouts to people in the USA. None of those things helped American citizens in the long run and they weren’t conservative driven. They were driven directly by wanting votes.

 

[BoDawg.sixpack]

At 12.7 cents per kWh, EV's are a bargain to operate at the moment.

 

[paindonthurt]

I don’t have to read that to know gas prices went up for a number of reasons.

I also don’t have to read that to know that the CURRENT president says he intends to flood the market with oil production but keeps making decisions that are the opposite of that.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

Saw a very interesting article earlier in the week. Basic premise was that oil companies are not interested in drilling & exploration like they were 10 years ago. They are focused on delivering shareholder value. Cited record profits among other things.

 

[dorndawg]

I don’t have to read that to know gas prices went up for a number of reasons.

I also don’t have to read that to know that the CURRENT president says he intends to flood the market with oil production but keeps making decisions that are the opposite of that.

What if I told you the President does not control oil production?

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

And pass term limits. They need to have a decent length of time but there needs to be a limit.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

View attachment 24571

 

[dorndawg]

Anyone who wants green energy needs to push the **** out of nuclear. Solar, wind, and hydro is not a feasible, nor reliable way to power the planet.

I generally agree but if you started today it'd be 10 years to build a new nuclear plant. 2 currently under construction in USA.

https://world-nuclear.org/informati...eration/plans-for-new-reactors-worldwide.aspx

 

[dorndawg]

Saw a very interesting article earlier in the week. Basic premise was that oil companies are not interested in drilling & exploration like they were 10 years ago. They are focused on delivering shareholder value. Cited record profits among other things.

At least 2 oil guys I know both saying they industry would love to be drilling more. There simply is not equipment available to go get. And even if there was, there is not labor to operate them.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

"Fifty-nine percent of oil executives said investor pressure to maintain capital discipline is the primary reason publicly traded oil producers are restraining growth, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas survey released Wednesday. For years, the boom-to-bust oil industry spent lavishly to fund all-out production growth. U.S. oil output skyrocketed, keeping prices low. Yet sustaining profits proved elusive. Hundreds of oil companies went bankrupt during multiple oil price crashes, leading investors to demand more restraint from energy CEOs. Today, oil companies are under enormous pressure from Wall Street to return cash to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, instead of investing in badly needed supply.


'Discipline continues to dominate the industry,' an executive from an oilfield services firm told the Dallas Fed in the survey. 'Shareholders and lenders continue to demand a return on capital, and until it becomes unavoidably obvious that high energy prices will sustain, there will be no exploration spending.'"

 

[horshack.sixpack]

I pushed a quote in from the article in a reply above. I'm not an expert, but it is possible that there is a difference in the publicly traded oil companies and private exploration/drilling companies. I have no doubt that the private ones who do exploration would like to do more of that.

 

[mstateglfr]

I don’t have to read that to know gas prices went up for a number of reasons.
I also don’t have to read that to know that the CURRENT president says he intends to flood the market with oil production but keeps making decisions that are the opposite of that.

If you did read the article, you would see your proposed solution is addressed in it and Fed economists dont think production increases will solve high prices in the near term. So what you seem to want(and what Biden apparently has suggested) is not something that Fed economists think will help.
Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm told CNN last week that she had expected oil and gas companies to increase their output more than they have amid record prices.“We want them to increase production so that people are not hurting,” she said. “It is extremely frustrating to see that there’s not a full-on return to production at the moment of crisis.”But economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas argued in May that production increases won’t solve the problem of high gasoline prices in the near term.“Even under the most optimistic view, U.S. production increases would likely add only a few hundred thousand barrels per day above current forecasts,” they wrote. “This amounts to a proverbial drop in the bucket in the 100-million-barrel-per-day global oil market.”

Saw a very interesting article earlier in the week. Basic premise was that oil companies are not interested in drilling & exploration like they were 10 years ago. They are focused on delivering shareholder value. Cited record profits among other things.

Yeah, this appears to be the case, at least for a few companies. It hits on a comment from the article I linked- Still, oil companies could use their excess profits to expand their production, and they aren’t. Instead Exxon, Chevron, BP, and Shell spent more than $44 billion on stock buybacks and dividends in 2021.

 

[Drebin]

Seems very 'baby with the bathwater' to do this. There may be good and effective elected officials that are removed in your scenario. Also, many who could be seen as having gotten us here are not currently serving. Then there is the reality that inflation is heavily tied to the global economy so much of this is outside our control as a country. Installing new people in the US wont fix global inflation.

You're right. He shouldn't have said to vote 'everyone' out. Just the ones with the D next to their name should do the trick.

 

[Drebin]

At least 2 oil guys I know both saying they industry would love to be drilling more. There simply is not equipment available to go get. And even if there was, there is not labor to operate them.

And more importantly, there's unwillingness for those in the industry to invest in something that could be yanked out from under them in a year.

 

[57stratdawg]

That. Plus, no one wants to loan them $ for new CAPEX expenditures. There’s just so much uncertainty in the long term outlook for these companies now.

Would you loan out $1B to build a new gasoline refinery? Good luck getting that through a finance committee with words like “systemic industrial risk” and “uncertain global demand” written everywhere. Even if you collateralize it - there’s huge uncertainty in the collateral.

 

[dorndawg]

And more importantly, there's unwillingness for those in the industry to invest in something that could be yanked out from under them in a year.

We're nationalizing? Don't threaten me with a good time, Drebin!************

 

[missouridawg]

I generally agree but if you started today it'd be 10 years to build a new nuclear plant. 2 currently under construction in USA.

https://world-nuclear.org/informati...eration/plans-for-new-reactors-worldwide.aspx

So it sounds like we need a solid plan in hydrocarbons for the next 30-50 years while the globe builds out nuclear capabilities. Count me in.

 

[thatsbaseball]

Biden's approach is a combination of horrendous strategy and pandering to the environmental extremists.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

gotta believe the unknowns about what this administration may/may not do regarding exploration and production play a role

 

[dorndawg]

So it sounds like we need a solid plan in hydrocarbons for the next 30-50 years while the globe builds out nuclear capabilities. Count me in.

I'd love to see it happen re: nuclear but I am not optimistic. Wind and solar are already over 10% of total energy output in USA and will continue to grow. Literally nobody thinks there's a short/medium term energy plan that does not significantly include hydrocarbon.

 

[johnson86-1]

If you did read the article, you would see your proposed solution is addressed in it and Fed economists dont think production increases will solve high prices in the near term. So what you seem to want(and what Biden apparently has suggested) is not something that Fed economists think will help.
Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm told CNN last week that she had expected oil and gas companies to increase their output more than they have amid record prices.“We want them to increase production so that people are not hurting,” she said. “It is extremely frustrating to see that there’s not a full-on return to production at the moment of crisis.”But economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas argued in May that production increases won’t solve the problem of high gasoline prices in the near term.“Even under the most optimistic view, U.S. production increases would likely add only a few hundred thousand barrels per day above current forecasts,” they wrote. “This amounts to a proverbial drop in the bucket in the 100-million-barrel-per-day global oil market.”




Yeah, this appears to be the case, at least for a few companies. It hits on a comment from the article I linked- Still, oil companies could use their excess profits to expand their production, and they aren’t. Instead Exxon, Chevron, BP, and Shell spent more than $44 billion on stock buybacks and dividends in 2021.

Biden and democrats in general spend a lot of energy sending messages that investing in energy production is going to be expensive and risky. If you make it risky, they are going to require a higher return to compensate for the risk, so they are going to invest less for any projected level of oil prices. To Biden's credit, he is a moron so it's at least possible that he isn't trying to depress oil production and is just saying whatever he thinks will poll well without considering it and the actions they take have real world consequences.

 

[J-Dawg]

2. Giving **** tons of money to foreign countries and handouts to people in the USA. None of those things helped American citizens in the long run and they weren’t conservative driven. They were driven directly by wanting votes.

This in spades.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

They don't need a loan. In 2021, Exxon, Chevron, BP, and Shell spent more than $44 billion on stock buybacks and dividends. Another $32B is expected in 2022. I own big oil stocks for dividends, so I'm not complaining about that, just pointing out that they are raking in record profits right now, so they don't need to borrow money, They just don't want to drill right now.

 

[Lowdog]

Even if you could capitalize a new refinery nobody and I mean nobody in this country wants a refinery in their backyard or state. The environmental impact study would have to be paid off just to get a review and the millions it would take in kick backs just to get a favorable/pass. I’ve been in the oil/gas exploration business for 40yrs+

 

[mstateglfr]

At least 2 oil guys I know both saying they industry would love to be drilling more. There simply is not equipment available to go get. And even if there was, there is not labor to operate them.

And more importantly, there's unwillingness for those in the industry to invest in something that could be yanked out from under them in a year.

Disagree with your use of 'more importantly' since the post you responded to says 2 people in the industry want to drill more, but are unable to due to lack of equipment and man power. It doesnt work to say more important than wanting to drill and not having the capability to is that the industry is unwilling to drill due to uncertainty. The people said they want to drill.


Anyways, I do fully agree that uncertainty hurts. Companies tend to hunker down when things are uncertain, and buying back stock instead of investing in expansion is also a common practice during uncertain times. It would be awesome if we had a comprehensive energy policy that laid out the coming 30 years at a national level and it actually stayed from term to term. But even this would both help and hurt. Areas of energy that will be phased out in 30 years will be abandoned by some in order to focus on areas that will expand.

Basically, I am really not sure what sort of plan there is that will allow short term and long term to co-exist and be strong.

 

[BoDawg.sixpack]

The Russian oil embargo, while well intentioned will be little more than symbolic. There's just too much demand in India, China, South America and Africa for it to put a long term economic dent in Russia's coffers. Meanwhile the shakeup in the international oil markets is forcing businesses and individuals have to reallocate capital. The domino effect won't be good for many people outside the purview of big oil investments.

 

[Barkman Turner Overdrive]

To Biden's credit, he is a moron so it's at least possible that he isn't trying to depress oil production and is just saying whatever he thinks will poll well without considering it and the actions they take have real world consequences.

81 million votes! ******************

 

[paindonthurt]

24 years is plenty