May CPI Numbers…

[Cooterpoot]

Seems very 'baby with the bathwater' to do this. There may be good and effective elected officials that are removed in your scenario. Also, many who could be seen as having gotten us here are not currently serving. Then there is the reality that inflation is heavily tied to the global economy so much of this is outside our control as a country. Installing new people in the US wont fix global inflation.

Well, our Fed leaders failed miserably. Our transportation czar is failing miserably. Both appointed positions. Our leaders are more concerned about something that happened a couple years ago and global warming than about the actual American people. We're sending money all over the world while people struggle. I laughed when Biden said oil prices would drop after the Russian war ended. I mean, are we going to go back to working with them? Hell no. Our leadership isn't leading. They're arguing over Trump BS more than anything in an attempt to deflect failure.
I can't name one elected official I care to vote for again.

 

[paindonthurt]

So what do you think drove the price up if flooding the market won’t help it come down?

I’ll give you a hint on why it was so low in mid 2020. High volume production and supply then a rapid drop in demand.

That drop in demand caused a rapid drop in production. You can’t just flip a switch and turn production back on so supply went down.

Supply down with slow production and toss in rapid high demand and a war drives the price up.

I dont need the fed economists to tell me supply won’t push it down.

 

[paindonthurt]

81 million idiots or??

 

[horshack.sixpack]

Enough of this nuance. I'm gonna need you to come up with a concise, sound bite length solution, that completely eviscerates your opponent for their incompetence if you are gonna win office.

 

[paindonthurt]

So why not keep doing things like we’ve been doing until those get online and have a slow change. Instead of a 60 mph to 0 stop into a brick wall?

 

[horshack.sixpack]

What "Trump BS" are they arguing over? I've not seen that in the context of this discussion.

 

[mstateglfr]

Well, our Fed leaders failed miserably.

Maybe they havent failed miserably. Maybe this is the best case scenario and they steered us away from a worse situation. I am not sure how it could be definitively argued that isnt the case.

^ I am not saying I believe the above. I am saying I recognize I am not smart enough to confidently say they failed miserably because I dont have the capacity to properly analyze the many reports and trends that they have at their disposal to make decisions.

 

[Quincy A. Wagstaff]

The Fed

The Fed has been talking markets down since January and have hiked multiple times.Inflation just made a new high.They have been totally ineffective in bringing it down.Why haven't they simply hiked 1% each meeting?Because they can't.Impotent.— Dzambhala HODL (@DzambhalaHODL) June 10, 2022

 

[Cooterpoot]

What "Trump BS" are they arguing over? I've not seen that in the context of this discussion.

Sorry, not this board. The whole government leadership. They act like people don't know Trump was a turd too. Well, except the cultish followers. I think most people are focused on the "here and now" while leadership is still talking about the past. That's never a good thing.

 

[Cooterpoot]

Maybe they havent failed miserably. Maybe this is the best case scenario and they steered us away from a worse situation. I am not sure how it could be definitively argued that isnt the case.

^ I am not saying I believe the above. I am saying I recognize I am not smart enough to confidently say they failed miserably because I dont have the capacity to properly analyze the many reports and trends that they have at their disposal to make decisions.

They've already admitted they failed. Yellen is an old fool with insane leanings. Pretty hard to say they're doing their best when they've admitted failure.

 

[turkish]

At least 2 oil guys I know both saying they industry would love to be drilling more. There simply is not equipment available to go get. And even if there was, there is not labor to operate them.

Lol. I have no doubt their superiors may have told them that.

 

[aTotal360]

Yellen is a buffoon.

 

[johnson86-1]

They don't need a loan. In 2021, Exxon, Chevron, BP, and Shell spent more than $44 billion on stock buybacks and dividends. Another $32B is expected in 2022. I own big oil stocks for dividends, so I'm not complaining about that, just pointing out that they are raking in record profits right now, so they don't need to borrow money, They just don't want to drill right now.

They need loans to make the returns work. If you fund a project with 100% equity the hurdle rate goes up to the cost of equity. So just say your cost of debt is 5% and cost of equity is 12% and you fund a project with 50/50 debt and equity (which I would presume is heavy on equity for oil companies but don't know), you're moving your hurdle rate from 8.5% to 12% by moving to 100% equity financing.

That said, I doubt any of the companies you listed will have problem getting loans either. It's the smaller, more aggressive developers that aren't going to be able to get loans. Lots of banks still probably have policies in place from whenever OPEC tried to drive shale producers under (2014-2015 maybe?) and so I don't think they are going to be making loans on projects that require oil to be over $100 a barrel to be profitable.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

I sincerely hope that reasonable people, like you, who aren't drinking the Trump koolaid but think we are in normal political times and that the focus on "the past" is unwarranted will watch the hearings and find out how much further than just being a "turd" Trump is and see that whole faction for the legitimate threat that it is to, at a minimum, stability in our government. Trump had a 7 part plan, nevermind that he failed in his ultimate goal, he had lot's of elected officials engaged in his plan who subsequently asked for pardons. These are actual treasonous acts, not regular political gamesmanship. We won't have the luxury of arguing over competing party's policies if ever someone like Trump is allowed to take over the country.

Sorry for trailing off a little, but I have a lot of good friends, who are intelligent people, who also live in an echo chamber, consume confirmation bias like it's manna from heaven, and refuse to look at what really happened and see it for what it is.

 

[johnson86-1]

Maybe they havent failed miserably. Maybe this is the best case scenario and they steered us away from a worse situation. I am not sure how it could be definitively argued that isnt the case.

^ I am not saying I believe the above. I am saying I recognize I am not smart enough to confidently say they failed miserably because I dont have the capacity to properly analyze the many reports and trends that they have at their disposal to make decisions.

The Fed failed miserably by their own metrics. Announced FAIT of 2% and we have 8.5% and low unemployment. If we're at 5% CPI and 4.5% unemployment, there's an argument about whether they made the best tradeoffs they could. Don't think there is any argument (or that they would even claim) they didn't fail.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

24 years is plenty

They gather too much power and after about 16 years they are making votes by whoever puts the most money in their back pocket or are their other party members tell them to not the voters.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

What if I told you the President does not control oil production?

 

[mstateglfr]

They've already admitted they failed. Yellen is an old fool with insane leanings. Pretty hard to say they're doing their best when they've admitted failure.

You said 'our Fed leaders'. I took that to mean leaders of the Fed, so Jerome Powell, for example. I figured you meant the Fed since they manipulate interest rates and manage inflation, which is the topic of this thread.

I now see when you said 'our Fed leaders', you were using it in a more broad way to mean leaders within the Federal government that manage and oversee monetary policy. Fair enough.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

81 million votes! ******************

I'd like for them to find 81 million people who will admit to voting for him... today...

 

[BoomBoom.sixpack]

The Fed failed miserably by their own metrics. Announced FAIT of 2% and we have 8.5% and low unemployment. If we're at 5% CPI and 4.5% unemployment, there's an argument about whether they made the best tradeoffs they could. Don't think there is any argument (or that they would even claim) they didn't fail.

But the US dollar is very strong right now. Kinda feels like blaming the Fed for supply and demand. I don't think they misjudged the money supply. And I don't think either of us want the Fed trying to control supply and demand.

 

[Junction John]

...and this was back when he was partially sentient.

 

[dorndawg]

Lol. I have no doubt their superiors may have told them that.

You're probably right. After all, why would a global supply chain shortage and an extremely tight labor market impact our largest commodity?

 

[Leeshouldveflanked]

Inflation is at 40 year high. That is on current leadership.

 

[paindonthurt]

I’m going with 20 to 24 years bc it is:

A: long enough for someone to make a career of it so you don’t lose candidates who think they may not have other options

B: it eliminates the excuse of unelected “staff” making the decisions

C: it’s plenty of time to get stuff accomplished

D: it’s short enough to end the pelosis and McConnells

 

[ckDOG]

30% was likely votes against Trump and not for Biden.

81 million idiots or??

A statue of a giant turd would have received 20+ million votes as long as it wasn't named Don. Republicans will be running all 3 branches if they finally accept that and move on from Trump, his lies, and whatever Frankenstein and erratic platform that suits his fancy for the day. Party of principle and ideas is no more. It's a party of bombast that will say whatever gets them them the clips on cable news. Hell does the party even have an official platform any longer? I know it didn't for at least a few Trump years.

At least with Democrats I can predict what they will do and history says there's pretty good odds they bail back towards the center or fail to get an unrealistic plan passed. What I don't have to worry about right now is their figurehead whipping the morons into a violent frenzy and attacking our own government in an effort to preserve power. Anyone that didn't see that **** coming from a mile away had their heads in the sand. For now, that's enough for me to vote against Republicans except locally where they some haven't accepted the insanity.

Run a reasonable candidate not hell bent on social grievances and actually govern predictably conservative and they can have my vote back too. Keep supporting election lies and getting panties in a wad about gays, books, and getting big sad that corporations might support causes that you don't (waving to Ron), then continue to expect that people will vote against you. USA needs an effective Conservative party. For the love of country, bring that **** back and quit the cult theatrics.

 

[paindonthurt]

Or just tell us for a year pre election we don’t need to know your plans “just trust me”

 

[thatsbaseball]

Oh God, prepare for EVERY Dem talking point **

 

[paindonthurt]

I think the point is they are arguing over trump BS versus focusing on the context of this discussion.

 

[paindonthurt]

Why is the labor market so tight?

 

[mcdawg22]

So what do you think drove the price up if flooding the market won’t help it come down?

I’ll give you a hint on why it was so low in mid 2020. High volume production and supply then a rapid drop in demand.

That drop in demand caused a rapid drop in production. You can’t just flip a switch and turn production back on so supply went down.

Supply down with slow production and toss in rapid high demand and a war drives the price up.

I dont need the fed economists to tell me supply won’t push it down.

Yup. And as far as non oil inflation, it seems pretty obvious to me. People are still spending. Unemployment is low, entry level low skill jobs are paying more. There was a lot of money given out by both administrations. And as much as you heard everyone was going to opt out of vacations because of prices, I’m not seeing it in our area. Hotels are packed, restaurants are packed, roads are packed, and Walmart is packed. I had a friend that went to Great Wolf Lodge last week and he said it was the most packed he has ever seen it. As JLS has said many times. Eventually as things slow down, you’ll see one of 2 things. Either people will start tightening their belts and be more fiscally responsible with their individual spending, or more likely, they’ll keep spending. Max out credit and we are going to have a credit default crisis again.

 

[dorndawg]

Why is the labor market so tight?

Retirements are historically high, immigration is historically low, Covid

 

[turkish]

You're probably right. After all, why would a global supply chain shortage and an extremely tight labor market impact our largest commodity?

They can afford any expediting fee there is right now. Unfortunately, they see that as an iffy-at-best investment long-term thanks to some factors I will not list so as not to anger anyone further.

 

[johnson86-1]

Even if you could capitalize a new refinery nobody and I mean nobody in this country wants a refinery in their backyard or state. The environmental impact study would have to be paid off just to get a review and the millions it would take in kick backs just to get a favorable/pass. I’ve been in the oil/gas exploration business for 40yrs+

I'm pretty sure Mississippi would love for Chevron to build a new refinery right next to the other one. The problem is the federal regulations make it all but impossible, plus you've got politicians claiming they are going to put them out of business.

 

[Cooterpoot]

But the US dollar is very strong right now. Kinda feels like blaming the Fed for supply and demand. I don't think they misjudged the money supply. And I don't think either of us want the Fed trying to control supply and demand.

The fed failed to move on rates. That's a portion of the equation too. Now, they're chasing down inflation they've fallen behind. Large changes, quickly, equate to a recession.
The next big issue is going to be personal debt for a number of people. Hell, if I was "smart enough" to payoff debt and consolidate what I couldn't, and cut costs like subscriptions etc. last year, the fed should've been ahead of things. That wouldn't solve everything, but we'd be much further ahead than we are. The next 6 months are going to be rough! And that's probably the minimum. Our government long pushed too much production out of this country to also put us in a bind with all the shutdowns and shipping issues. Blame whichever side you want for that (it was a little of both).

 

[mstateglfr]

Why is the labor market so tight?

Have you really not read one of the 1,352,983 articles about this in the last 6 months?

 

[johnson86-1]

Yup. And as far as non oil inflation, it seems pretty obvious to me. People are still spending. Unemployment is low, entry level low skill jobs are paying more. There was a lot of money given out by both administrations. And as much as you heard everyone was going to opt out of vacations because of prices, I’m not seeing it in our area. Hotels are packed, restaurants are packed, roads are packed, and Walmart is packed. I had a friend that went to Great Wolf Lodge last week and he said it was the most packed he has ever seen it. As JLS has said many times. Eventually as things slow down, you’ll see one of 2 things. Either people will start tightening their belts and be more fiscally responsible with their individual spending, or more likely, they’ll keep spending. Max out credit and we are going to have a credit default crisis again.

https://www.investopedia.com/credit-card-balances-spike-surpassing-pre-pandemic-peak-5341375

Still have a way to go on debt, but it's ramping up pretty quickly.

 

[dorndawg]

They can afford any expediting fee there is right now. Unfortunately, they see that as an iffy-at-best investment long-term thanks to some factors I will not list so as not to anger anyone further.

I'm sure you're right.

 

[johnson86-1]

But the US dollar is very strong right now. Kinda feels like blaming the Fed for supply and demand. I don't think they misjudged the money supply. And I don't think either of us want the Fed trying to control supply and demand.

Their mandate isn't a strong dollar though, it's maintaining stable prices. They announced their policy and then they failed to execute it. I can't imagine they'd disagree with that. They might think there are good reasons that they failed and that their failure was understandable, but they failed.

 

[dorndawg]

The fed failed to move on rates. That's a portion of the equation too. Now, they're chasing down inflation they've fallen behind. Large changes, quickly, equate to a recession.
The next big issue is going to be personal debt for a number of people. Hell, if I was "smart enough" to payoff debt and consolidate what I couldn't, and cut costs like subscriptions etc. last year, the fed should've been ahead of things. That wouldn't solve everything, but we'd be much further ahead than we are. The next 6 months are going to be rough! And that's probably the minimum. Our government long pushed too much production out of this country to also put us in a bind with all the shutdowns and shipping issues. Blame whichever side you want for that (it was a little of both).

The FED is gonna need to start sharing a Netflix subscription.

 

[Cooterpoot]

The FED is gonna need to start sharing a Netflix subscription.

Ha! They've been sharing "free" money the last couple years. Going to payoff some student loans now. They like to share. That's a part of the problem.
And Netflix is about to shut down the sharing it seems.