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Odds maker SportsGrid's take on Blake Shapen

TaleofTwoDogs

TaleofTwoDogs

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Provided by SportsGrid
"It could be a long season in Starkville. Jeff Lebby is the first-year head coach for the Bulldogs and has transfer quarterback Blake Shapen leading his offense. Shapen was fine in Waco as the quarterback for the Baylor Bears but was not someone anyone would consider a star. He completed 61.7% of his passes for 2,188 yards with 13 touchdowns to only three interceptions as Baylor struggled, leaving Dave Aranda on the hot seat heading into 2024. Shapen will now be asked to lead a new offense in a more difficult conference under a first-year head coach."

Mississippi State 2024 Win projection: 4.5

Not a rousing endorsement, but not unexpected.

But this same group picked Will Rogers as the 22nd best QB in the nation. Go figure.
 
GloryDawg

GloryDawg

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Mississippi state could win 11 games the previous season, have 22 starters back, and we would still only be picked to win five games and finish only ahead of Vandy in the SEC,. It has always been that way. Truth is who know how good or how bad we might be. Who knows that with any team with the portal. Missouri went from a five-win seasons to a 12-win season beating Ohio State. YOu never know how those portal guys will pan out.
 
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QuadrupleOption

QuadrupleOption

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Ah yes, my favorite time of year. Preseason football predictions.

We will never be picked anywhere other than the lower 1/3rd of the conference, regardless of how we actually finish. Similarly, a certain school will always be overvalued in preseason for reasons but always find a way to disappoint their fanbase.
 
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Seinfeld

Seinfeld

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jethreauxdawg said:
I think a lot of yall are gonna realize Will was pretty good.
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Yeah, this is probably one of those times where more than one thing can be true. There’s no doubt that Will has a pretty rigid ceiling when it comes to arm strength and athleticism, but he’s a better college QB than many give him credit for when he’s in the right situation. I don’t know if Washington will be right for him or not, but it at least seems like he’ll get a fair shot there
 
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jethreauxdawg

jethreauxdawg

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Drebin said:
Yeah, he really wasn't. He was a system guy with a very limited skill set. This will be apparent at his next stop, if he even earns any playing time.
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I am curious who people that say Will wasn’t good consider good. If your qualification for “good” is heisman votes or nfl future, he’s not that. Does throwing the ball all over but having lots of incompletions or interceptions but also some big highlights make someone good? He’s not that. Does running around like manziel make you a good qb? He’s not that.
In my mind, a pretty good college qb is one who makes the high percentage passes, takes care of the ball, and gives his team a chance to win. I think Will was that.

Having elite receivers also helps a QB look good. Will didn’t have that.
 
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MSUDC11-2.0

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jethreauxdawg said:
I am curious who people that say Will wasn’t good consider good. If your qualification for “good” is heisman votes or nfl future, he’s not that. Does throwing the ball all over but having lots of incompletions or interceptions but also some big highlights make someone good? He’s not that. Does running around like manziel make you a good qb? He’s not that.
In my mind, a pretty good college qb is one who makes the high percentage passes, takes care of the ball, and gives his team a chance to win. I think Will was that.

Having elite receivers also helps a QB look good. Will didn’t have that.
Click to expand...
There was a specific point in time in mid to late 2021 where Rogers was, in fact, legitimately good. But it never got better from there and his numbers regressed his last two years.
 
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DWarren

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Will has some physical limitations, most here will admit that. His style of play is not my favorite. He's a solid college QB though. I don't understand the majority of our fanbase acting like he was the sole reason we didn't perform to expectation last year and crapping on him every chance they get. I guess its to make them feel better about our program as a whole by placing all the blame on him? We could be making access bowls too if we just had Patrick Mahomes at QB! Yall prognosticators better give us some respect! The hyperbole is wild.
 
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IBleedMaroonDawg

IBleedMaroonDawg

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Bulldawg77 said:
I think a lot of you all will be shocked how bad he will be in Washington.
Click to expand...

unimpressed morgan freeman GIF
 
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Bulldawg77

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jethreauxdawg said:
I am curious who people that say Will wasn’t good consider good. If your qualification for “good” is heisman votes or nfl future, he’s not that. Does throwing the ball all over but having lots of incompletions or interceptions but also some big highlights make someone good? He’s not that. Does running around like manziel make you a good qb? He’s not that.
In my mind, a pretty good college qb is one who makes the high percentage passes, takes care of the ball, and gives his team a chance to win. I think Will was that.

Having elite receivers also helps a QB look good. Will didn’t have that.
Click to expand...
Will played scared and that has carried over to UW.. I look for him to be benched at UW. Will serves his purpose here he was an above average system QB who had a good WR and back that coukd catch in 21. After that we saw the real Rodger’s. Wish him luck but Shapen is a much better fit and overall QB
 
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travis.sixpack

travis.sixpack

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TaleofTwoDogs said:
Provided by SportsGrid
"It could be a long season in Starkville. Jeff Lebby is the first-year head coach for the Bulldogs and has transfer quarterback Blake Shapen leading his offense. Shapen was fine in Waco as the quarterback for the Baylor Bears but was not someone anyone would consider a star. He completed 61.7% of his passes for 2,188 yards with 13 touchdowns to only three interceptions as Baylor struggled, leaving Dave Aranda on the hot seat heading into 2024. Shapen will now be asked to lead a new offense in a more difficult conference under a first-year head coach."

Mississippi State 2024 Win projection: 4.5

Not a rousing endorsement, but not unexpected.

But this same group picked Will Rogers as the 22nd best QB in the nation. Go figure.
Click to expand...
My only response is players get better with better coaching. See Michael Penix, 2022-23/Bo Nix 2022-23.
 
8

85Bears

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RiceDawg said:
The Leach era is so polarizing. Rogers was a good Air Raid QB. I appreciate what he did for us. His legacy is better if he transfers out after Leach died.
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As time goes on the Leach era will be less polarizing. going 9-4 in the transfer portal/NIL era and .500 in the sec his first two full seasons will be more appreciated in the future.

For reference the majority of the fan base thought Arnett/Friend/Peterson were a big upgrade over the lowly Mike Leach just prior to last season.
 
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RockyDog

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RiceDawg said:
The Leach era is so polarizing. Rogers was a good Air Raid QB. I appreciate what he did for us. His legacy is better if he transfers out after Leach died.
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And who knows where the blame lies. While his loyalty should have been more appreciated, Will did himself a disservice by staying at MSU last season. If Arnett/Barbary begged him to stay, then that action was criminal.

Either way, hindsight shows that last season was going to be a disaster regardless because they didn't do themselves any favors in the portal. When Willl's only competition was Mike Wright, they both deserved the short tenure they got.

The whole thing was criminally mishandled, but thank God we are through with that era. The only downside is that Lebby didn't have more talent to work with from a returning player standpoint. But, if he can win 6 or 7 then all of that should be forgotten.
 
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RiceDawg

RiceDawg

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85Bears said:
As time goes on the Leach era will be less polarizing. going 9-4 in the transfer portal/NIL era and .500 in the sec his first two full seasons will be more appreciated in the future.

For reference the majority of the fan base thought Arnett/Friend/Peterson were a big upgrade over the lowly Mike Leach just prior to last season.
Click to expand...
I had a lot of fun watching and attending those games from 2021-2022. I was at Auburn in 2021. I wish we could’ve seen him with the 2023 team.
 
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retire the banner

retire the banner

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Lebby’s offense is going to rock some of y’all’s world. A lot of our fan’s standard for offensive performance is so low. Will Rogers had no business playing SEC football. He will not be the starter at year’s end at UW

/cue someone blindly citing Will Rogers stats saying he was “actually good!”
 
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retire the banner

retire the banner

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RiceDawg said:
I had a lot of fun watching and attending those games from 2021-2022. I was at Auburn in 2021. I wish we could’ve seen him with the 2023 team.
Click to expand...
I call bs. I was at almost every game those years, the stadium was 75% full, zero excitement or pulse most games.
 
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maroonmania

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Drebin said:
Yeah, he really wasn't. He was a system guy with a very limited skill set. This will be apparent at his next stop, if he even earns any playing time.
Click to expand...
Will was great if all you needed were passes 10 to 15 yards beyond the LOS because he was very accurate in that range. Beyond that he was not very useful. He never could have played in Lebby's system that requires a lot of throws downfield.
 
QuadrupleOption

QuadrupleOption

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maroonmania said:
Will was great if all you needed were passes 10 to 15 yards beyond the LOS because he was very accurate in that range. Beyond that he was not very useful. He never could have played in Lebby's system that requires a lot of throws downfield.
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Will made a lot of throws over 30 yards. Several uf his TD passes were 30+ yards. I know y'all won't believe me, but it's true.

The problem Will had was a lack of receivers after 2022. 2023 was just a complete shitshow from start to finish. I don't think Aaron Rodgers would have helped us last year.

Having said that, he was limited physically but he was still one of the best pure passers we've had play at MSU. I don't get the hate for the guy.
 
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HammerOfTheDogs

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Preseason predictions have more to do with size and sanity of each fan base. The last thing any reporter wants is a brick through the window or somebody poisoning all their trees.
 
Drebin

Drebin

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jethreauxdawg said:
I am curious who people that say Will wasn’t good consider good. If your qualification for “good” is heisman votes or nfl future, he’s not that. Does throwing the ball all over but having lots of incompletions or interceptions but also some big highlights make someone good? He’s not that. Does running around like manziel make you a good qb? He’s not that.
In my mind, a pretty good college qb is one who makes the high percentage passes, takes care of the ball, and gives his team a chance to win. I think Will was that.

Having elite receivers also helps a QB look good. Will didn’t have that.
Click to expand...
My qualification of "good" is throw a receiver open, or make a play with your feet when one isn't there to be made, or take shots down the field, or not check down to your back 70% of the time and get them killed, or not bail early on a blitz, or not step out of bounds two yards short of a first down on third down. Will was accurate for the most part and that made him effective within a certain system. His numbers are artificially inflated because the vast majority of the plays we ran were safe underneath throws.
 
M

MSUDOG24

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retire the banner said:
Lebby’s offense is going to rock some of y’all’s world. A lot of our fan’s standard for offensive performance is so low. Will Rogers had no business playing SEC football. He will not be the starter at year’s end at UW

/cue someone blindly citing Will Rogers stats saying he was “actually good!”
Click to expand...

Hope so, been a slog over the past 6 years. Been some thrills but a whole bunch of mind numbing clunkers as well.
Here's to raising the standard.
 
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