Official tOSU v STATE score prediction thread

[ApexLion]

Hard to argue with this. Is it a cop-out to blame NIL for this?

Interested in your take on this @LionJim as a mathematician -- math is a cousin to statistics afterall:

Thoughts. Is it plausible that an outcome is inevitable? Have we reached that point in college athletics (in aggregate)?

I posted this on premium:

Has college football evolved (NIL, recruiting, fake school, bought players etc.) to the point that its mathematically and physically impossible for PSU to beat OSU? If you look at this from the data side of things, the answer may be yes. The chances of a PSU victory are most likely beneath the level of occurrence absent all outliers or extraneous variables (weather, injury, fluke plays). Why am I bringing this up? Franklin is a data nerd and I'm positive he's figured out his chances for success. Can PSU win? Of course. But the likelihood is very low imho. How does a coach plan for that?

 

[psuro]

Hard to argue with this. Is it a cop-out to blame NIL for this?

Lack of salary cap?

 

[psuro]

PSU kicks a game winning FG with 0:45 left in the game. Will Howard drives OSU down the field but gets sacked by Tyler Elsdon, who had not played in the game until thenb, at PSU's 41 yd line as time expires.

FIFY

 

[Bkmtnittany1]

Ohio State seemingly dominates the first half but only leads 14-6 at intermission.

AK (Andy Kotelnicki) and TA (Tom Allen) make halftime adjustments. PSU takes and holds a slim lead until halfway through the 4th quarter. OSU has a nice drive and kicks a FG. PSU trails 24-23 with 2:15 remaining in the game.

PSU drives the ball down the field forcing O$U to burn all of their TOs. PSU kicks a game winning FG with 0:45 left in the game. Will Howard drives OSU down the field but gets sacked at PSU's 41 yd line as time expires.

I was hoping you would provide more detail.

He left out BkMt getting arrested in lot22 after the game for doing his happy dance, naked, drunk, and smoking meat!

 

[bdgan]

OSU has a habit of making big plays when it counts. Their best skill players are WRs. PSU plays a lot of press man coverage and often brings Reed up in run support. I can see PSU getting beat on 3 big plays that will make the difference.

I also expect Henderson to get open over the middle when we leave that part of the field open.

 

[PrtLng Lion]

21-20 PSU

Up 20-14, OSU attempts a FG which is blocked by Carter in a Lavar Leap moment, and returned for a TD.

 

[rudedude]

OSU 27
PSU 20

OSU WRs just too much for us to handle. 1 or 2 explosive plays is the difference.

Howard can’t pass when he is on his back. Have you seen the Ohio State OL lately? You are giving them way too much credit.

 

[Keyser Soze 16802]

All the pressure is on Penn State and Big Game James

They all know the narrative

Penn State 23 Ohio State 20

 

[Bkmtnittany1]

Howard can’t pass when he is on his back. Have you seen the Ohio State OL lately? You are giving them way too much credit.

We better knock him down… those 2 wr’s are the best we will see this year

 

[LionJim]

21-20 PSU

Up 20-14, OSU attempts a FG which is blocked by Carter in a Lavar Leap moment, and returned for a TD.

Totally plausible, yeah. Good job, here’s hoping.

 

[LionJim]

Delete, damn it.

 

[LionJim]

We better knock him down… those 2 wr’s are the best we will see this year

Nebraska had two sacks last week against OSU. We’ll need more than that tomorrow.

 

[LionJim]

Hard to argue with this. Is it a cop-out to blame NIL for this?

Answering my own question: Yes. For example, Jimmy Johnson might be coaching the other team. A winning team takes advantage of every mismatch. PSU can do it.

 

[PSUFTG]

All the pressure is on Penn State and Big Game James

They all know the narrative

Penn State 23 Ohio State 20

Obviously, both sides very much want to win.
But the "pressure". for both teams, is greatly alleviated by the new playoff format.

Just last year, this would be a must win for PSU (and OSU) - each of whom would need a win on Saturday, and then a win in the B10 CCG - to make the final 4.
Now? Aside from "pride", doesn't much matter - win or lose and they (PSU) are in the playoffs (and even seeding may not change much... probably in the 5-8 slots in either case - unless a win also leads to beating Oregon in the CCG)

For OSU, a bit more pressure (though even with a second loss they are likely to end up in the final 12). But they would put pressure on themselves to make sure they don't stumble against either IU or Michigan.

 

[lions1995]

It has happened before.

What the hell

PSU 63
OSU 14

 

[PSU87]

Howard can’t pass when he is on his back. Have you seen the Ohio State OL lately? You are giving them way too much credit.

Sure, but i don't feel like we've been great at pressuring the QB either

 

[LionJim]

Sure, but i don't feel like we've been great at pressuring the QB either

The OSU OL has been hit hard by injuries. Good timing for us. We need to really take advantage.

 

[LionJim]

He left out BkMt getting arrested in lot22 after the game for doing his happy dance, naked, drunk, and smoking meat!

Why would you be singled out and arrested for dancing naked and drunk if there are 5000 other naked and drunk dancers in the same general vicinity? Or is the meat smoking a bridge too far?

 

[PSUFBFAN]

Obviously, both sides very much want to win.
But the "pressure". for both teams, is greatly alleviated by the new playoff format.

Just last year, this would be a must win for PSU (and OSU) - each of whom would need a win on Saturday, and then a win in the B10 CCG - to make the final 4.
Now? Aside from "pride", doesn't much matter - win or lose and they (PSU) are in the playoffs (and even seeding may not change much... probably in the 5-8 slots in either case - unless a win also leads to beating Oregon in the CCG)

For OSU, a bit more pressure (though even with a second loss they are likely to end up in the final 12). But they would put pressure on themselves to make sure they don't stumble against either IU or Michigan.

If we win tomorrow, the pressure is off the remainder of the regular season. If we lose tomorrow, Minnesota is a huge, pressure game. Win that one and we're looking at a home playoff game. Lose to OSU and Minny, we are on the bubble and will most certainly be on the road in the first round. I have no interest in going on the road against someone like UGA, Texas, Alabama, etc.

 

[laKavosiey-st lion]

Interested in your take on this @LionJim as a mathematician -- math is a cousin to statistics afterall:

Thoughts. Is it plausible that an outcome is inevitable? Have we reached that point in college athletics (in aggregate)?

I posted this on premium:

Has college football evolved (NIL, recruiting, fake school, bought players etc.) to the point that it’s mathematically and physically impossible for PSU to beat OSU? If you look at this from the data side of things, the answer may be yes. The chances of a PSU victory are most likely beneath the level of occurrence absent all outliers or extraneous variables (weather, injury, fluke plays). Why am I bringing this up? Franklin is a data nerd and I'm positive he's figured out his chances for success. Can PSU win? Of course. But the likelihood is very low imho. How does a coach plan for that?

I would 100%

If we win tomorrow, the pressure is off the remainder of the regular season. If we lose tomorrow, Minnesota is a huge, pressure game. Win that one and we're looking at a home playoff game. Lose to OSU and Minny, we are on the bubble and will most certainly be on the road in the first round. I have no interest in going on the road against someone like UGA, Texas, Alabama, etc.

I would 100% make the trip to bama or Austin FUN!!

 

[Marshall2323]

Last week's scare vs Nebraska was the worst thing to happen.

 

[bdgan]

Howard can’t pass when he is on his back. Have you seen the Ohio State OL lately? You are giving them way too much credit.

PSU is 11th in the BiG in sacks.

 

[LionJim]

PSU is 11th in the BiG in sacks.

F me.