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Official tOSU v STATE score prediction thread

ApexLion

ApexLion

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Nov 1, 2021
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LionJim said:
Hard to argue with this. Is it a cop-out to blame NIL for this?
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Interested in your take on this @LionJim as a mathematician -- math is a cousin to statistics afterall:

Thoughts. Is it plausible that an outcome is inevitable? Have we reached that point in college athletics (in aggregate)?

I posted this on premium:

Has college football evolved (NIL, recruiting, fake school, bought players etc.) to the point that its mathematically and physically impossible for PSU to beat OSU? If you look at this from the data side of things, the answer may be yes. The chances of a PSU victory are most likely beneath the level of occurrence absent all outliers or extraneous variables (weather, injury, fluke plays). Why am I bringing this up? Franklin is a data nerd and I'm positive he's figured out his chances for success. Can PSU win? Of course. But the likelihood is very low imho. How does a coach plan for that?
 
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psuro

psuro

Heisman
Aug 24, 2001
8,677
18,826
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Nittering Nabob said:
PSU kicks a game winning FG with 0:45 left in the game. Will Howard drives OSU down the field but gets sacked by Tyler Elsdon, who had not played in the game until thenb, at PSU's 41 yd line as time expires.
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FIFY
 
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Bkmtnittany1

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Jan 12, 2014
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Nittering Nabob said:
Ohio State seemingly dominates the first half but only leads 14-6 at intermission.

AK (Andy Kotelnicki) and TA (Tom Allen) make halftime adjustments. PSU takes and holds a slim lead until halfway through the 4th quarter. OSU has a nice drive and kicks a FG. PSU trails 24-23 with 2:15 remaining in the game.

PSU drives the ball down the field forcing O$U to burn all of their TOs. PSU kicks a game winning FG with 0:45 left in the game. Will Howard drives OSU down the field but gets sacked at PSU's 41 yd line as time expires.
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PSUHarry said:
I was hoping you would provide more detail.
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He left out BkMt getting arrested in lot22 after the game for doing his happy dance, naked, drunk, and smoking meat!
 
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bdgan

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Oct 12, 2021
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OSU has a habit of making big plays when it counts. Their best skill players are WRs. PSU plays a lot of press man coverage and often brings Reed up in run support. I can see PSU getting beat on 3 big plays that will make the difference.

I also expect Henderson to get open over the middle when we leave that part of the field open.
 
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PrtLng Lion

All-Conference
Nov 25, 2017
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21-20 PSU

Up 20-14, OSU attempts a FG which is blocked by Carter in a Lavar Leap moment, and returned for a TD.
 
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Keyser Soze 16802

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Apr 5, 2014
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All the pressure is on Penn State and Big Game James

They all know the narrative

Penn State 23 Ohio State 20
 
LionJim

LionJim

Heisman
Oct 12, 2021
12,584
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LionJim said:
Hard to argue with this. Is it a cop-out to blame NIL for this?
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Answering my own question: Yes. For example, Jimmy Johnson might be coaching the other team. A winning team takes advantage of every mismatch. PSU can do it.
 
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PSUFTG

All-Conference
Nov 1, 2021
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Keyser Soze 16802 said:
All the pressure is on Penn State and Big Game James

They all know the narrative

Penn State 23 Ohio State 20
Click to expand...
Obviously, both sides very much want to win.
But the "pressure". for both teams, is greatly alleviated by the new playoff format.

Just last year, this would be a must win for PSU (and OSU) - each of whom would need a win on Saturday, and then a win in the B10 CCG - to make the final 4.
Now? Aside from "pride", doesn't much matter - win or lose and they (PSU) are in the playoffs (and even seeding may not change much... probably in the 5-8 slots in either case - unless a win also leads to beating Oregon in the CCG)

For OSU, a bit more pressure (though even with a second loss they are likely to end up in the final 12). But they would put pressure on themselves to make sure they don't stumble against either IU or Michigan.
 
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PSU87

PSU87

All-Conference
Jun 8, 2001
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rudedude said:
Howard can’t pass when he is on his back. Have you seen the Ohio State OL lately? You are giving them way too much credit.
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Sure, but i don't feel like we've been great at pressuring the QB either
 
LionJim

LionJim

Heisman
Oct 12, 2021
12,584
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Bkmtnittany1 said:
He left out BkMt getting arrested in lot22 after the game for doing his happy dance, naked, drunk, and smoking meat!
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Why would you be singled out and arrested for dancing naked and drunk if there are 5000 other naked and drunk dancers in the same general vicinity? Or is the meat smoking a bridge too far?
 
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PSUFBFAN

PSUFBFAN

All-Conference
Oct 7, 2021
1,281
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PSUFTG said:
Obviously, both sides very much want to win.
But the "pressure". for both teams, is greatly alleviated by the new playoff format.

Just last year, this would be a must win for PSU (and OSU) - each of whom would need a win on Saturday, and then a win in the B10 CCG - to make the final 4.
Now? Aside from "pride", doesn't much matter - win or lose and they (PSU) are in the playoffs (and even seeding may not change much... probably in the 5-8 slots in either case - unless a win also leads to beating Oregon in the CCG)

For OSU, a bit more pressure (though even with a second loss they are likely to end up in the final 12). But they would put pressure on themselves to make sure they don't stumble against either IU or Michigan.
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If we win tomorrow, the pressure is off the remainder of the regular season. If we lose tomorrow, Minnesota is a huge, pressure game. Win that one and we're looking at a home playoff game. Lose to OSU and Minny, we are on the bubble and will most certainly be on the road in the first round. I have no interest in going on the road against someone like UGA, Texas, Alabama, etc.
 
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laKavosiey-st lion

laKavosiey-st lion

Heisman
Sep 10, 2013
15,577
11,449
113
ApexLion said:
Interested in your take on this @LionJim as a mathematician -- math is a cousin to statistics afterall:

Thoughts. Is it plausible that an outcome is inevitable? Have we reached that point in college athletics (in aggregate)?

I posted this on premium:

Has college football evolved (NIL, recruiting, fake school, bought players etc.) to the point that it’s mathematically and physically impossible for PSU to beat OSU? If you look at this from the data side of things, the answer may be yes. The chances of a PSU victory are most likely beneath the level of occurrence absent all outliers or extraneous variables (weather, injury, fluke plays). Why am I bringing this up? Franklin is a data nerd and I'm positive he's figured out his chances for success. Can PSU win? Of course. But the likelihood is very low imho. How does a coach plan for that?
Click to expand...
I would 100%
PSUFBFAN said:
If we win tomorrow, the pressure is off the remainder of the regular season. If we lose tomorrow, Minnesota is a huge, pressure game. Win that one and we're looking at a home playoff game. Lose to OSU and Minny, we are on the bubble and will most certainly be on the road in the first round. I have no interest in going on the road against someone like UGA, Texas, Alabama, etc.
Click to expand...
I would 100% make the trip to bama or Austin FUN!!
 
PSUHarry

PSUHarry

All-Conference
Jul 15, 2003
1,048
1,190
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rudedude said:
Howard can’t pass when he is on his back. Have you seen the Ohio State OL lately? You are giving them way too much credit.
Click to expand...
They just seem to find a way to get it done. I really want to believe you.
 
Nittany1865Farmer

Nittany1865Farmer

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Oct 12, 2021
1,288
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Interesting statistic: Since joining the Big10 in 1993, Penn State has only lost the game around Halloween 13 times out of 30 games, and they did include OSU in some of those games, and we won games against OSU in that stretch. Odds are in our favor under the Witch's moon!!
 
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Bkmtnittany1

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Jan 12, 2014
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PSU with one loss will still get in the playoff. OSU with 2 maybe, but 3 losses and they are out. If it is close… the stripes will make a call… bank on it! They cheat for the Big2… pure and simple.
 
84lion

84lion

Senior
Oct 7, 2021
457
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OSU 24, PSU 21. PSU leads deep in the 4th quarter 21-17 but OSU (with the help of the zebras) makes a long pass or run with under minute left to steal the game.
 
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BostonNit

BostonNit

All-Conference
Mar 15, 2003
950
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OSU leads late, 21-20 as our D plays great but they hit a few long plays.

The Nits drive down to the 30 yd line and as time expires Ryan Barker hits his third FG of the day to down the Bucks 23-21.

State College and Columbus simultaneously go up in flames.
 
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