Brutius said:
I have huge issues with. Basically your new argument is that non conference games are meaningless. Who cares that Kentucky went 6-7 with horrible losses, they did good in conference they should be in the tournament. Who cares that OleMiss beat (then) #15 Clemson, they were 7-9 in conference they don't deserve to go to the tournament.
I personally think OleMiss is more deserving than Arkansas, Illinois State, Oregon, and Ohio State.</p>
I think what we will see is OSU and Oregon losing their first game in the big ten tournament (against Michigan State and Washington State), and OleMiss winning 1 or 2 games in the SEC tournament. Then things will be even more in OleMiss favor.</p>
Correction: Only one horrible loss for Kentucky. San Diego is now a Top 100 team thanks to their winning the WCC tournament.
And I didn't say that nonconference games were meaningless. I just mentioned my second criteria, conference standing, but let's go into nonconference games now that you bring it up:
Team Record RPI SOS
Ole Miss
14-0 8 128
Ohio State 9-4 29
13
Oregon 9-3 68 162
Yes, Ole Miss has an undefeated nonconference record and are ranked #8 in the RPI in nonconference games. Ohio State has a 29 RPI with a much superior strength of schedule-- and the Buckeyes and Rebels both played Presbyterian. I will give Ole Miss the edge over Oregon as far as nonconference performance is concerned.
Comparing Ole Miss to Arkansas, Illinois State, Ohio State, and Oregon:
35 <font color="#000000">Illinois St.</font> <font color="#000000">MVC</font> 23-9 .5903 .5431
<font color="#FF0000">69</font> 0-5 5-0 13-3 5-1 8-3 62 115
8-2 9-8
42
Arkansas SEC 20-10 .5858 .5609 40 4-5 3-1
<font color="#FF0000">9-4 4-0</font> 11-3 41 87 5-5
<font color="#FF0000">5-9
</font>43
Mississippi <font color="#FF0000">SEC</font> 21-9 .5854 .5478 61
5-4 2-0 <font color="#FF0000"><font color="#FF0000">
9-5</font></font><font color="#FF0000">
5-0</font> 14-0
8 128 5-5 7-7
49
Ohio St. B10 19-12 .5777 .5702
21 <font color="#FF0000">
3-9 </font> <font color="#000000">4-1</font>
6-2 6-0 9-4 29
13 <font color="#FF0000">4-6</font> <font color="#FF0000">5-9
</font> 53
Oregon <font color="#000000">P10</font> 18-12 .5727 .5657
<font color="#0000FF">30</font> <font color="#FF0000">4-8 3-2</font> 5-2 6-0 9-3
<font color="#FF0000">68</font> <font color="#FF0000">162 </font> 6-4 6-9
Illinois State
Positives: Highest RPI; best conference placement; best performance in last 10 games; best road and neutral court record.
Negative: Worst Strength of Schedule.
Arkansas
Positives: Nothing really stands out as far as Arkansas is concerned in this group of five. Probably the most average team across the board. The Razorbacks' advantage is in individual comparisons.
Negatives: Record vs. 101+; worst road and neutral court record.
Ole Miss
Positives: Best record vs. Top 100; best nonconference RPI.
Negatives: Worst conference placement; Worst record vs. 101+
Ohio State
Positives: Best overall strength of schedule; Beaten teams they've supposed to beat.
Negatives: Performance against Top 50; Last ten games; road and neutral court record.
Oregon
Positives: Peformance in 2nd toughest conference; beaten teams they've supposed to beat.
Negatives: Peformance versus Top 100 teams; Nonconference RPI & SOS.
Illinois State's positives outweigh Ole Miss's in my book, and the Redbirds are in.
Arkansas and Ole Miss are fairly similar teams, which is why unlike others on this board, I've not said that Arkansas is a lock. That being said, when comparing the two schools Arkansas has an ever-so-slightly better RPI, a better SOS, an ever-so-slightly better performance against 101+ teams, and was ahead of the Rebels by two games in the SEC, so they're in.
Ohio State's strength is Ole Miss's weakness and vice versa. The Buckeyes have a better strength of schedule and conference record and have performed better against teams they're supposed to beat. Ole Miss's strength of schedule pales in comparison and they've not beaten teams they're supposed to beat; however, the Rebels have a fantastic record against Top 100 teams. So the question is, does the Committee select the Apple (Ole Miss) or the Orange (Ohio State)? Right now, I'd say it's the Orange.
Oregon. I think Oregon's the weakest of the five teams in this comparison. They're hanging their hats on a .500 record in a good conference and their ability to beat the teams they're supposed to defeat.
In order, I'd go: Arkansas, Illinois State, Ohio State, Ole Miss, and then Oregon.
I agree. If Ohio State and Oregon lose their conference tournament games, they are out. The questions then would be: Will Ole Miss take advantage? Will it matter anyway? After all, Butler (to use an example) could lose the Horizon tournament and get an at-large bid. </p>