OT: AKB: Is Nuclear Fusion a Real Possibility?

[91Joe95]

Uncovering a novel way to bring the energy that powers the sun and stars to Earth

Scientists at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPPL) have uncovered critical new details about fusion facilities that use lasers to compress the fuel that produces fusion energy. The new data could help lead to the improved design of future laser...

phys.org

Love the articles, but this is little more than flowery prose. Alas this really highlights just how little they know about something as basic as measuring initiation. Oy vey.

 

[Nohow]

Not so sure the human population is increasing.

It’s been increasing since the end of the Black Death in 1350.
Projections:
2035 8.6B
2055 9.8B
2100 11.2B
Rate of increase seems to be slowing, however.

 

[LionJim]

It’s been increasing since the end of the Black Death in 1350.
Projections:
2035 8.6B
2055 9.8B
2100 11.2B
Rate of increase seems to be slowing, however.

Current rate of increase is around 1.05%, which means a doubling of population every 67 years. (I learned today that a rough estimate for the number of years in which the population doubles is found by dividing 70 by the percentage growth rate.)

 

[Nohow]

Current rate of increase is around 1.05%, which means a doubling of population every 67 years. (I learned today that a rough estimate for the number of years in which the population doubles is found by dividing 70 by the percentage growth rate.)

But the rate of increase seems to be decreasing over time.

 

[razpsu]

Of course it can be done. Didn’t you watch the saint?

 

[mrmk5110]

Watched this video a couple of months ago, I love following this stuff but don't have any background. Maybe some of the board experts can comment if any of this is not correct? The video talks about how MIT designed a new magnet that generated the magnetic field needed using less power, using a new type of superconductor tape.




Achieving commercial fusion power would be the greatest achievement of humanity, but I am not confident we'll get there even in my life time (I'm 32). If we ever do achieve it, it might be too late for humanity before things like the warming/changing climate will have had potentially drastic effects on things like our food supply, etc.

 

[Bison13]

Current rate of increase is around 1.05%, which means a doubling of population every 67 years. (I learned today that a rough estimate for the number of years in which the population doubles is found by dividing 70 by the percentage growth rate.)

Hold on a sec... You just heard of the rule of 70 yesterday?

 

[LionJim]

Hold on a sec... You just heard of the rule of 70 yesterday?

Lol, yeah. I kind of expected a response like this.

 

[91Joe95]

Hold on a sec... You just heard of the rule of 70 yesterday?

Lots of people get stuck on 69.

 

[Bison13]

Lol, yeah. I kind of expected a response like this.

I get it... you are too busy with Non-Euclidean Geometry and Topology...

 

[Big_O]

I know squat about this subject, but in my past, I visited the National Ignition Facility at Lawrence Livermore National Lab. It was a multi-billion-dollar facility that, if I recall correctly, had 192 lasers focused at a single spot within a concrete ball, in order to simulate the fusion energy of the sun.

My daughter, who holds a doctorate in NucE, works at Livermore in a very secure building with no windows. You are not permitted to bring any electronic devices into the building. But she works in global security, not in energy.

However, I got to tour some of the facilities at Livermore through their family program which occurs once every five years. You have to be a parent, sibling or child of an employee to participate - nobody else is allowed. You have to sign up months in advance, obviously so they can do a background check.

My son-in-law works at the same National Lab compound, but at the Sandia Lab portion where he is involved in Nuclear Security. His area of nuclear security involves making sure our nukes don’t go boom accidentally.

 

[LionJim]

t

I get it... you are too busy with Non-Euclidean Geometry and Topology...

In all honesty, I am pretty weak at “tricks of the trade” shortcuts like the Rule of 70. This is what helped Feynman stand out in Los Alamos, just putting this out there, not the least to make the point that I’m not Richard Feynman.

 

[LionJim]

I'm waiting for the clothes to dry, so thought I'd point out a curious fact about prime and composite (meaning, not prime) integers.

Euclid has a proof that if A is a finite set of prime numbers, then there is some prime p larger than every prime in A. It is a simple step beyond this to prove that there are infinitely many prime numbers.

Here's the thing: pick some positive integer N, as large as you like. There then exists some sequence of N consecutive composite integers (like 8, 9, 10 are three consecutive composite integers, or 212, 213, 214, 215, 216, 217, 218 are seven consecutive composite integers). It's a simple algorithm we're using. Anyway, there exists a sequence of 10000000000000000000000000000000000 consecutive composite integers and after all this there are still infinitely many primes coming up. If W is the number of seconds since the Big Bang, there exists a sequence of W consecutive composite (non-prime) integers. I think that's cool.

Edit: Sketch of how the algorithm works. I mentioned that 212, 213, 214, 215, 216, 217, 218 are seven consecutive composite integers. This is so because 2x3x5x7=210, and to this add in order 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.

Enjoy your evening. Thanks for putting up.

 

[Woodpecker]

I'm waiting for the clothes to dry, so thought I'd point out a curious fact about prime and composite (meaning, not prime) integers.

Euclid has a proof that if A is a finite set of prime numbers, then there is some prime p larger than every prime in A. It is a simple step beyond this to prove that there are infinitely many prime numbers.

Here's the thing: pick some positive integer N, as large as you like. There then exists some sequence of N consecutive composite integers (like 8, 9, 10 are three consecutive composite integers, or 212, 213, 214, 215, 216, 217, 218 are seven consecutive composite integers). It's a simple algorithm we're using. Anyway, there exists a sequence of 10000000000000000000000000000000000 consecutive composite integers and after all this there are still infinitely many primes coming up. If W is the number of seconds since the Big Bang, there exists a sequence of W consecutive composite (non-prime) integers. I think that's cool.

Edit: Sketch of how the algorithm works. I mentioned that 212, 213, 214, 215, 216, 217, 218 are seven consecutive composite integers. This is so because 2x3x5x7=210, and to this add in order 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.

Enjoy your evening. Thanks for putting up.

“There ought to exist for the human being, in so far as he is conscious of being, a certain mode of standing opposite his past and his future, as being both this past and this future and as not being them.”
― Jean-Paul Sartre, Being and Nothingness

 

[JohnJumba]

What about cold fusion?

 

[LionJim]

“There ought to exist for the human being, in so far as he is conscious of being, a certain mode of standing opposite his past and his future, as being both this past and this future and as not being them.”
― Jean-Paul Sartre, Being and Nothingness

That was deep, Bernard.

 

[Woodpecker]

That was deep, Bernard.

Just trying to tie Heigl into the discussion

{this pic was deleted by mods?}
Oh wait, maybe it was Hegel.

 

[Rick76]

I started in the MS Nuclear Engineering program at PSU back in the 70's. Back then, Fusion was a distant dream. I don't think there has been much real progress since then.

Billions of dollars have been spent by the US, Russia, and other countries trying to achieve sustainable fusion reactions, let alone commercialize it.

I drive by the Princeton Plasma Physics Lab about once a month. If those guys can't figure it out, well I don't know who can.

As a Nuc E student, I was told that the temps required in the plasma for any hope of a sustainable reaction are in the 4 million degree range. I asked if that was Fahrenheit or Centigrade? The answer was it doesn't matter, the temps required are so high that they are out of reach on a sustainable level.

As with any high temperature evolution, one of the major issues is finding metal alloys that can withstand very high temps. Max fuel temps in light water reactors are in the 5000 degree F range. The temps we're talking about in fusion are several orders of magnitude above that.

 

[PSU Mike]

I'm waiting for the clothes to dry, so thought I'd point out a curious fact about prime and composite (meaning, not prime) integers.

Euclid has a proof that if A is a finite set of prime numbers, then there is some prime p larger than every prime in A. It is a simple step beyond this to prove that there are infinitely many prime numbers.

Here's the thing: pick some positive integer N, as large as you like. There then exists some sequence of N consecutive composite integers (like 8, 9, 10 are three consecutive composite integers, or 212, 213, 214, 215, 216, 217, 218 are seven consecutive composite integers). It's a simple algorithm we're using. Anyway, there exists a sequence of 10000000000000000000000000000000000 consecutive composite integers and after all this there are still infinitely many primes coming up. If W is the number of seconds since the Big Bang, there exists a sequence of W consecutive composite (non-prime) integers. I think that's cool.

Edit: Sketch of how the algorithm works. I mentioned that 212, 213, 214, 215, 216, 217, 218 are seven consecutive composite integers. This is so because 2x3x5x7=210, and to this add in order 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.

Enjoy your evening. Thanks for putting up.

The Big Bang Theory last aired on May 16, 2019 so it’s been about (365+366+365+15+11)*24*3600, or about 97 million seconds since the Bing Bang. How’d I do?

 

[Pennstatel0]

Pretty good review on fusion power.

Nuclear fusion could give the world a limitless source of clean energy. We’re closer than ever to it

A recent experiment showed this virtually limitless form of clean power is possible on Earth. Now, one of the most complex energy projects in history aims to make nuclear fusion a reality for the whole planet.

edition.cnn.com

And for those who think this is a boondoggle?

Back in the 1960s, when scientists needed to exchange large data sets, they would print out the data and drive or fly to their collaborators.

Do you think that Al Gore inventing the internet was a boondoggle?

 

[mmp121]

Pretty good review on fusion power.

Nuclear fusion could give the world a limitless source of clean energy. We’re closer than ever to it

A recent experiment showed this virtually limitless form of clean power is possible on Earth. Now, one of the most complex energy projects in history aims to make nuclear fusion a reality for the whole planet.

edition.cnn.com

And for those who think this is a boondoggle?

Back in the 1960s, when scientists needed to exchange large data sets, they would print out the data and drive or fly to their collaborators.

Do you think that Al Gore inventing the internet was a boondoggle?

These days the same thing happens, but the scientist travel around with large caches of hard drives when they need to share 100s or 1000s of TB of data.

 

[PrtLng Lion]

I'm waiting for the clothes to dry, so thought I'd point out a curious fact about prime and composite (meaning, not prime) integers.

Euclid has a proof that if A is a finite set of prime numbers, then there is some prime p larger than every prime in A. It is a simple step beyond this to prove that there are infinitely many prime numbers.

Here's the thing: pick some positive integer N, as large as you like. There then exists some sequence of N consecutive composite integers (like 8, 9, 10 are three consecutive composite integers, or 212, 213, 214, 215, 216, 217, 218 are seven consecutive composite integers). It's a simple algorithm we're using. Anyway, there exists a sequence of 10000000000000000000000000000000000 consecutive composite integers and after all this there are still infinitely many primes coming up. If W is the number of seconds since the Big Bang, there exists a sequence of W consecutive composite (non-prime) integers. I think that's cool.

Edit: Sketch of how the algorithm works. I mentioned that 212, 213, 214, 215, 216, 217, 218 are seven consecutive composite integers. This is so because 2x3x5x7=210, and to this add in order 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.

Enjoy your evening. Thanks for putting up.

I love this stuff too. Watched a recent Numberphile video (may not have been recently posted) about the largest Mersenne prime found to date-- stands at something like 2^82e6 - 1, Hard to comprehend how large that number is, till you see the physical printout of all the digits is front-to-back pages 3 thick binders full. I think the proof of it's "primeness" is that it was found from a computer program.

 

[LionJim]

I love this stuff too. Watched a recent Numberphile video (may not have been recently posted) about the largest Mersenne prime found to date-- stands at something like 2^82e6 - 1, Hard to comprehend how large that number is, till you see the physical printout of all the digits is front-to-back pages 3 thick binders full. I think the proof of it's "primeness" is that it was found from a computer program.

I’m not sure how well-known this open problem is but it’s easy to describe, so here goes. The proof that there are infinitely many primes is not at all complicated. OTOH, there is the Twin Prime Conjecture: a twin prime p is a prime where p+2 is also prime. The first five twin prime pairs are (3,5), (5,7), (11,13), (17,19), (29,31). The Twin Prime Conjecture states that there are infinitely many twin prime pairs. It is unproven.

 

[91Joe95]

I’m not sure how well-known this open problem is but it’s easy to describe, so here goes. The proof that there are infinitely many primes is not at all complicated. OTOH, there is the Twin Prime Conjecture: a twin prime p is a prime where p+2 is also prime. The first five twin prime pairs are (3,5), (5,7), (11,13), (17,19), (29,31). The Twin Prime Conjecture states that there are infinitely many twin prime pairs. It is unproven.

I thought you said twin peaks the first time I read that.

 

[Rick76]

"Holy Moses, said the Pharaoh"

 

[PrtLng Lion]

I thought you said twin peaks the first time I read that.

Prime peaks, indeed

 

[PrtLng Lion]

I’m not sure how well-known this open problem is but it’s easy to describe, so here goes. The proof that there are infinitely many primes is not at all complicated. OTOH, there is the Twin Prime Conjecture: a twin prime p is a prime where p+2 is also prime. The first five twin prime pairs are (3,5), (5,7), (11,13), (17,19), (29,31). The Twin Prime Conjecture states that there are infinitely many twin prime pairs. It is unproven.

I find it absolutely stunning that past mathematicians could test (and in some cases, develop proofs) for things like this without the use of a computer. Damn, they were way smarter and more patient than me. Google claims the highest confirmed twin prime pair as 11,713 digits(!). I wonder if the separation between twin prime pairs increases as the numbers go higher. Practical question @LionJim : for mathematicians that pursue endeavors like this, who typically funds their time/effort? Anyone? Or it's just done in "spare time" out of personal interest?

As fascinating as this is, I could imagine it being a struggle since it's not obvious what the "practical application" of such work is to initiatives that make money.

 

[manatree]

 

[91Joe95]

Prime peaks, indeed

I like to divide those numbers.

 

[LionJim]

I find it absolutely stunning that past mathematicians could test (and in some cases, develop proofs) for things like this without the use of a computer. Damn, they were way smarter and more patient than me. Google claims the highest confirmed twin prime pair as 11,713 digits(!). I wonder if the separation between twin prime pairs increases as the numbers go higher. Practical question @LionJim : for mathematicians that pursue endeavors like this, who typically funds their time/effort? Anyone? Or it's just done in "spare time" out of personal interest?

As fascinating as this is, I could imagine it being a struggle since it's not obvious what the "practical application" of such work is to initiatives that make money.

I can’t imagine any practical utility to knowing larger and larger primes, but I really am not the imaginative sort. Neither am I in any way up to any sort of speed about funding of research.

More on practical utility, this from G H Hardy: “I have never done anything ‘useful.’ No discovery of mine has made, or is likely to make, directly or indirectly, for good or ill, the least difference to the amenity of the world.” Most mathematicians I know think this way, when they give it any thought.

 

[Nohow]

Huh? Are you really acting like you didn't know I'm an ahole? The rest of your post is just gibberish.

That’s because besides being an ahole you are also stupid.

 

[RochLion]

I was just about to mention that I worked for a CAD software company in the early 90)s and I was lead rep selling our products to NIF at LLNL. They invested a ****-ton with us. I was cleared to have a guided tour of the facility. So amazing. Getting cleared to visit a DoE facility is harder than a DoD facility. I would disagree with 91Joe95 (above)... the collective scientific community has been working on fusion for 50+ years and by 2050 they will figure this out and figure out how to scale it down and make it sustainable. This is the single most impactful way to counter climate change long term... it should get more press.

Just saw this on the news tonight about a fusion breakthrough at Lawrence Livermore. They were able produce a reaction that output more energy than used to create it. I took a tour recently at the Univ or Rochester Laser Lab and it was pretty amazing to see. They've got something like a 96 beam laser I believe which is not near the 192 that Livermore has, but still pretty amazing.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/12/politics/nuclear-fusion-energy-us-scientists-climate/index.html

 

[NittPicker]

I'm hoping the news tomorrow lives up to the "major scientific breakthrough" label. It'd suck to hear the hype then learn the breakthrough is a very small incremental step forward. Whenever it may be, it's fun to think about a time when the world doesn't have to kiss the collective *** of the oil brokers. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Russia, etc., can return to being the wastelands they were before becoming one trick economic ponies.

 

[91Joe95]

I'm hoping the news tomorrow lives up to the "major scientific breakthrough" label. It'd suck to hear the hype then learn the breakthrough is a very small incremental step forward. Whenever it may be, it's fun to think about a time when the world doesn't have to kiss the collective *** of the oil brokers. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Russia, etc., can return to being the wastelands they were before becoming one trick economic ponies.

We already have enough oil, natural gas, coal, and nuclear capabilities/potential to not have to kiss the *** of those evil oil brokers. Doing so is simply a choice.

 

[EricStratton-RushChairman]

Just saw this on the news tonight about a fusion breakthrough at Lawrence Livermore. They were able produce a reaction that output more energy than used to create it. I took a tour recently at the Univ or Rochester Laser Lab and it was pretty amazing to see. They've got something like a 96 beam laser I believe which is not near the 192 that Livermore has, but still pretty amazing.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/12/politics/nuclear-fusion-energy-us-scientists-climate/index.html

I read that this morning. Encouraging news. The NIF facility is amazing...

 

[Meat Lab]

I'm sure there are a few posters here who know more about this than me.

nuclear fusion energy - Google Search

Sam Bankman-Fried thinks it’s possible. Plus, just like everything else, if theres money to be made, it’s possible.

 

[My Master]

If we don’t find something sustainable in the next 100 years, at a certain point won’t we revert to a pre-industrial civilization by and large? We can’t keep increasing the human population indefinitely with just fossil fuels and planet earth as our backstops. Stupid humans.

Thanos was on the right track. Right @Garw ?

 

[Rick76]

I was on a task force way back when evaluating the atomic vapor laser isotope separation process at Lawrence Livermore lab. It was the most secure federal facility I have ever entered.

Basically, the concept was to melt uranium metal, vaporize it and use lasers to enrich uranium and plutonium.

They do amazing things at LLNL.

 

[K-Live]

I read that this morning. Encouraging news. The NIF facility is amazing...

Fricken laser beams!

 

[[email protected]]

I need to think about that a little