OT: American Labor

[NWADawg]

We have come to a point in America where unskilled labor is demanding skilled labor earnings. For example, general labor in a my industry which requires less than high school diploma is starting at around $20/hr plus signing bonus => that's ~ $43k for first year of employment. Add 5 hrs of overtime per week and that jumps over $50k. So an uneducated (no high school diploma, trade certificate, training course, etc.) couple can push to around $100k in first year. Other general manufacturing labor in my area seems to be paying similarly. That sets a baseline for where "normal" earnings start. This wage increase has been happening slowly for years but went into warp speed during covid and people getting $900/wk to stay at home and not work. I am by no means a business, accounting, finance expert but I struggle to see the current model as sustainable.

I've seen others refer to a reset. I assume this will be a Great Depression type period where hunger takes the place of pride and people start agreeing to work for lesser wages just to have a job. What say ye experts?

We may even see college student athletes happy to get free food and scholarships again.

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[GloryDawg]

2008 was more worrisome. This problem can be fix with some policy changes. 2008 the world economy's were on the brink of collapsing. We are paying farmers not to farm. That one could be fix fast.

 

[aTotal360]

If there is a God, hopefully this realization will drive down the cost of education.

 

[mstateglfr]

Yes, it is very much a concern because as the floor rises, all rungs on the ladder will want to move up as well. That could hurt some businesses and industries. At the same time, recent history shows companies as a whole are desperate for workers and pay is typically the biggest way to draw in labor, so what are you gonna do?...lower pay and incentivize people to come work by offering a sweet embroidered windbreaker every year or so?

Maybe the pendulum will swing back and we will once again be able to put all these greedy people in their place, which is lining up begging for a job that pays poorly and allows them to make more than govt assistance, but less than they need for secure living.

In all seriousness, I dont know the answer. You can look at a chart that shows effective median pay has been so stagnant for so long that its physically depressing to think about. You can look at another chart that shows how wide the wage gap has grown and how the bottom half of pay hasnt kept up with costs. Meanwhile, innovation is going on all around us and there are opportunities everywhere.
Maybe instead of focusing on how the bottom shouldnt get more, focus should be on how the top has so much. The classic argument that someone deserves high pay because they risked everything to start the company still holds true in some instances, but many instances it just isnt applicable.
You mention how the bottom pay jobs are unskilled and wages are creeping up. I would argue that in a lot of instances, the wage gap between the median and C-Suite is larger and less deserved than the wage gap between the floor and the median.

But again, I recognize I dont have an answer for this. Anyone that comes to this sort of conversation with a definitive statement about how it must work is a 17ing fool because it isnt at all that simple.

 

[PBDog]

If there is a God, hopefully this realization will drive down the cost of education.

The cost of education will never come down until the over supply of money for scholarships, grants, and loans dry up.

 

[Cooterpoot]

We have come to a point in America where unskilled labor is demanding skilled labor earnings. For example, general labor in a my industry which requires less than high school diploma is starting at around $20/hr plus signing bonus => that's ~ $43k for first year of employment. Add 5 hrs of overtime per week and that jumps over $50k. So an uneducated (no high school diploma, trade certificate, training course, etc.) couple can push to around $100k in first year. Other general manufacturing labor in my area seems to be paying similarly. That sets a baseline for where "normal" earnings start. This wage increase has been happening slowly for years but went into warp speed during covid and people getting $900/wk to stay at home and not work. I am by no means a business, accounting, finance expert but I struggle to see the current model as sustainable.

I've seen others refer to a reset. I assume this will be a Great Depression type period where hunger takes the place of pride and people start agreeing to work for lesser wages just to have a job. What say ye experts?

We may even see college student athletes happy to get free food and scholarships again.

View attachment 23938

How about you try, we've reached a point where wages aren't remotely approaching the growth of inflation. Even normal inflation is 3-4% and the average worker doesn't get that increase each year.

 

[Jack Klompus.sixpack]

The cost of college football isn’t going down for sure.

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

Given time any "reset" would result in the exact same people being in the exact same positions. In my experience, many (not all but many) people are where they are as a result of their own decisions.

 

[jethreauxdawg]

You’re paid based on how hard it is

To replace you. When people are lining up to take the base level jobs at low pay, the pay will come down (relatively). The govt paying people to stay home has been very profitable for the “unskilled” workforce that chose to go to work.
To your point about college, if seeing a plumber or electrician make $100,000 while someone with a four year degree and student loans makes $45,000 doesn’t help a high school kid know what to do, I don’t know what to say.

 

[mdm3045]

2008 was more worrisome. This problem can be fix with some policy changes. 2008 the world economy's were on the brink of collapsing. We are paying farmers not to farm. That one could be fix fast.

Don’t know if you are being sarcastic about “paying farmers not to farm”. But if you are serious, then you have been seriously misinformed.

 

[mstateglfr]

Don’t know if you are being sarcastic about “paying farmers not to farm”. But if you are serious, then you have been seriously misinformed.

...farmers are paid to let fields go fallow. I know that is for sure accurate in CA and IA because I have both worked with farmers and personally know some. I do not know the details for what % of land is eligible or how much they get, etc. But yeah, it is for sure a real program.

 

[garddog]

To replace you. When people are lining up to take the base level jobs at low pay, the pay will come down (relatively). The govt paying people to stay home has been very profitable for the “unskilled” workforce that chose to go to work.
To your point about college, if seeing a plumber or electrician make $100,000 while someone with a four year degree and student loans makes $45,000 doesn’t help a high school kid know what to do, I don’t know what to say.

A lot of that issue is the education system has told kids for the last 40 years they have to get a college education. When I came up in the 80's the teachers/councilors actively made it a point that only the bad students learned trades.

 

[mstateglfr]

Given time any "reset" would result in the exact same people being in the exact same positions. In my experience, many (not all but many) people are where they are as a result of their own decisions.

Except for many who are where they are due in large part to who they were born to and/or the circumstances in which they grew up, yes you are probably correct.

 

[GloryDawg]

...farmers are paid to let fields go fallow. I know that is for sure accurate in CA and IA because I have both worked with farmers and personally know some. I do not know the details for what % of land is eligible or how much they get, etc. But yeah, it is for sure a real program.

Reagan started it in 1985 and Biden just increased the money. I think it called Conservation Reserve Program.

 

[mdm3045]

...farmers are paid to let fields go fallow. I know that is for sure accurate in CA and IA because I have both worked with farmers and personally know some. I do not know the details for what % of land is eligible or how much they get, etc. But yeah, it is for sure a real program.

This is the CRP (Conservation Reserve Program) which accounts for about 2% of farm acres in the US (25 million CRP acres versus 915 million farm acres). The point I am making is that this is not what has sent our economy into a spiral.

 

[mstateglfr]

The govt paying people to stay home has been very profitable for the “unskilled” workforce that chose to go to work.

But wouldnt this largely be temporary? The short term 'get paid to stay at home' money may have incentivized some to not work, but that isnt still the case at this point, right?
The covid bump for unemployment ended back in June in Iowa. Its 8 months later and there are signs up basically everywhere saying 'apply here' 'scan this QR to apply now!' '$22 starting pay for warehouse work' etc etc.

It may have been profitable back during the first year of the pandemic, but how does your comment square with what we are still seeing now?

 

[mstateglfr]

This is the CRP (Conservation Reserve Program) which accounts for about 2% of farm acres in the US (25 million CRP acres versus 915 million farm acres). The point I am making is that this is not what has sent our economy into a spiral.

Yup, thats it. Thanks.
I understand your initial comment now and agree- that program or recent increase isnt a factor in the overall issues we are talking about here.

 

[yelchevelle]

I have opinions on this matter, but they are just opinions. I am not educated in this field, but I think that one of two things is going to happen

1. Everyone’s wages eventually go up, which is one of the causes of the inflation we are seeing. This eventually levels out and every pay grade essentially levels out to before just with different numbers. People pay the same % in taxes which means more dollars to pay down debt or to quantify spending more. Debt, whether government or individual gets paid off easier because of inflated dollars paying off smaller preinflated dollars.

2. Option two is probably the scarier option of things reaching a breaking point with business not being sustainable and people have to decide to take less money, spend less money, and do jobs they used to not be willing to do or just go hungry. Bad things follow this option I think.


No matter what happens, my biggest problem with any labor today is that hardly anyone takes pride in what they do anymore. Honesty and integrity seem to be gone. When I go to the doctor’s office, get my roof redone, pick up a fast food hamburger, get a service call for my car, etc. the people who actually do the work don’t seem to give a crap. It used to be professionals knew how to do there job and did it efficiently. Now, no one shows up on time, they seem lost when they get there, and may or may not get the job done correctly. I am tired of this. We as Americans need to get the fire in our belly and take pride in being the greatest country in the world. If you are digging a ditch, make it the best dang ditch you could ever imagine. Everyone wants top dollar for the crappiest effort. Where did we go wrong.

Now, get off my lawn. Rant over.

 

[NWADawg]

...farmers are paid to let fields go fallow. I know that is for sure accurate in CA and IA because I have both worked with farmers and personally know some. I do not know the details for what % of land is eligible or how much they get, etc. But yeah, it is for sure a real program.

Back in early 80's or so, when the "layout land" started and row crop farmers could get paid to not farm up to 20% or 25% of their land to reduce surplus and drive up crop prices, it was a major benefit for farmers. A few where I lived around in SE Ark used the layout land to produce catfish and made out like bandits for a couple years. But, farming non row crop items on layout land ended quickly and seems like the large land layouts ended a few years later. That's been a lot of years and I don't know of anyone that got payed for large areas of layout land since back then.

 

[jethreauxdawg]

Yes, it will be temporary in the sense that eventually inflation will make this current higher starting pay will be considered low. I doubt the actual $ amount will decrease. As far as why people still aren’t returning to work, I’m not sure. It may be because people are living off the now monthly child tax checks. Just a guess. I know a lot of people took bogus PPP loans, but I would think all of that would’ve been spent by now.
The area this has been profitable for entry level workers that won’t go away is that they were hired for positions they previously would’ve been denied due to not checking all the boxes on an HR form. They had the ability but not the right paperwork. For example, a couple medical device companies in Memphis previously required a 4 year degree for their entry level positions, they don’t now. They may revert back to previous policies when the labor market changes, but they’re not going to fire the people who got in during this past year.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

CRP in most cases takes out unproductive and oftentimes highly erodible ground. What is lost as agricultural crop land is pretty minimal. We aren’t paid to leave land fallow anymore. They got rid of “set aside” acres years ago.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

Set aside acres were written out of the Farm Bill in 1996.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

I hope it spurs a movement toward labor and reduction in the pressure for everyone to go to college. Trades have long been undervalued. For truly unskilled jobs I suspect automation will answer that question.

 

[SwampDawg]

I recently had a kinda minor procedure done. I had to register first in the home office where I was diagnosed then go to a neighboring town where the operation was performed. The people at the home office took all my info, and faxed it to the other office. I went to the other office and gave them my two insurance cards and filled out some other forms. Waiting for the day to come, got a call that my copay would be x dollars. Gave them credit card info to cover. Day of operation the office could not find the info faxed to them. Got duplicates. Then told me that they found info on my two insurance plans and I wouldn't have to pay anything. Totally screwed up. That stuff should have been routine to them.

 

[CoastTrash]

We need more people. More babies, more domestic And international Migration. more legal immigration would be helpful.

Lots of immigrants work really hard and could remind many Americans just how fortunate we are to live here.

Iincreasing the core Jackson metro population would really help revitalize Jackson. We should seek to double the metro population as quickly and responsibly as possible. Imagine The Jackson metro area with 1.2 million residents.

 

[BoomBoom.sixpack]

We have come to a point in America where unskilled labor is demanding skilled labor earnings. For example, general labor in a my industry which requires less than high school diploma is starting at around $20/hr plus signing bonus => that's ~ $43k for first year of employment. Add 5 hrs of overtime per week and that jumps over $50k. So an uneducated (no high school diploma, trade certificate, training course, etc.) couple can push to around $100k in first year. Other general manufacturing labor in my area seems to be paying similarly. That sets a baseline for where "normal" earnings start. This wage increase has been happening slowly for years but went into warp speed during covid and people getting $900/wk to stay at home and not work. I am by no means a business, accounting, finance expert but I struggle to see the current model as sustainable.

I've seen others refer to a reset. I assume this will be a Great Depression type period where hunger takes the place of pride and people start agreeing to work for lesser wages just to have a job. What say ye experts?

We may even see college student athletes happy to get free food and scholarships again.

View attachment 23938

To limit myself to what you asked, unskilled labor is getting pay closer to what skilled labor gets because unpaid labor right now has a better bargaining position, and they were already being underpaid. Skilled labor trending that way, but will take longer to shake out.

We also have the end result of decades of American business being obsessed with cutting payroll. There's no fat left to cut, no jobs left to layoff, no work that can be dumped on another worker instead of hiring, no wives left to enter the workforce.

To be more precise, the term "unskilled labor" doesn't mean what it used to mean, and we are seeing a decoupling in pay rates for the subgroups involved. Unskilled labor used to mean all workers that lacked discrete skills, such as welding, or engineering or office tasks that go to college grads (even if they don't have to). But today, there are workers willing to do physical labor, workers that can communicate, workers that put in an honest day's work, workers that are reliable.....and those that aren't. It's the former that are seeing pay raises....or ones that will last anyway. And good for them. An honest day's work used to be worth more, and it's past time it starts getting back to that.

No recession necessary. American business is as profitable as ever. Plenty of room to pay a little more.

 

[harrybollocks]

are they more overpaid than the hedgefund guys and Wall Street bankers who caused the financial collapse and might do that again? I always find it odd that Americans complain about other Americans without some credential somehow making enough money to join the middle class. We used to be proud that Americans had the highest standard of living in the world and that ordinary Americans earned enough to become middle class and help their kids pay for college. But, if you're a small businessman, I understand.

 

[Leeshouldveflanked]

2008 was more worrisome. This problem can be fix with some policy changes. 2008 the world economy's were on the brink of collapsing. We are paying farmers not to farm. That one could be fix fast.

Most Farmers vote Democrat for that reason.

 

[harrybollocks]

Tell super rich people to stop funding non-profits that pay our over supply of peeps with graduate degrees in the humanties and social science to pester the rest of us.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

Lol…ok. You have no idea what you’re talking about. I can count on one hand the number of farmers I know that vote Democrat.

 

[BoDawg.sixpack]

We need to get back to basics

And that starts with entry level jobs paying entry level wages.

Yes, I understand real wages have been flat for many decades, however...

We don't want people to linger in jobs like fast food fry cook, or a porter at a car dealer, or a school janitor. We want them to move up as they age, and do things that are fundamental to economic growth .... like transportation, health care, construction and computing/networking. You don't have to be college material. You can do a variety of vocational jobs without a degree that get you over 50k a year and more.

The other effect of 15 dollar an hour wage for entry level jobs in one sector, is that other entry level professions will be forced to raise wages to stay competitive. Then you'll be back to where you started as inflation kicks in, wanting to make more money as your living costs increase. We're experiencing some of that now, although there is some background noise from Covid and the recent stimulus payments. But the bottom line is that if you want to make a living wage you need to be doing something fundamental to the economy. Not dropping fries in hot grease.

 

[Cooterpoot]

You guys act like $15 an hour is some great pay. The only problem with higher wages is too much employment that drives up demand. Demand is a huge problem right now. The recession will eliminate those extra jobs. Flat wages will be a bigger problem in the long run.

 

[DerHntr]

Most Farmers vote Democrat for that reason.

Now we know you’re trolling. Try to be a little less obvious next time.

 

[mstateglfr]

You guys act like $15 an hour is some great pay. The only problem with higher wages is too much employment that drives up demand. Demand is a huge problem right now. The recession will eliminate those extra jobs. Flat wages will be a bigger problem in the long run.

Exactly. Its like 31k per year and that just is not much. No, it isnt poverty, but it also is barely sustainable in many parts of the country.
But screw it, I got mine so they need to just do the impossible and pull themselves up their bootstraps!

 

[mstateglfr]

The area this has been profitable for entry level workers that won’t go away is that they were hired for positions they previously would’ve been denied due to not checking all the boxes on an HR form. They had the ability but not the right paperwork. For example, a couple medical device companies in Memphis previously required a 4 year degree for their entry level positions, they don’t now. They may revert back to previous policies when the labor market changes, but they’re not going to fire the people who got in during this past year.

If the non-degree folks are reliable in the position(s), it would be foolish for the company to revert back to requiring a degree to do the job.

 

[BoDawg.sixpack]

It is great pay for certain jobs but not for others. The problem is when people try to conflate the investment in human capital with jobs that require certifications, degrees, or special skills with those that do not. Not every job deserves a living wage. Asking for that for all jobs or even most unskilled labor will push prices up so that same group is clamoring for another raise. To break the cycle you need to advance your career.

 

[Go Budaw]

I’m unsure what your basis of comparison is for $43k being a lot to pay. In 2008 dollars, that’s only $33k. That was the year I graduated from college, and $33k was only a few notches above the poverty level for folks with mouths to feed at that time. And for manual labor? Come on.

Long story short, inflation is a thing, and it didn’t just start this year. $43k per year ain’t much to write home about anymore. It hasn’t been for a long time.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

Do you realize that one of the largest predictors of success is the ZIP code where you were born?

 

[mstateglfr]

You’re paid based on how hard it is to replace you.

Teachers and social workers may disagree. Shortages for both, advanced degrees are common, yet pay is low.

 

[paindonthurt]

I don't think you want to compare the production level of most "hedgefund guys" vs a mcdonalds burger flipper griping about $15/hr. I know you don't. Did some hedge fund managers make bad moves? Sure but a lot of them paid for it.

People get paid for the value they produce. If you can't show up to work daily on time, can't make quality consistently or efficiently, you shouldn't complain about more money. Working at mcdonalds and getting close to $15/hr doesn't take much. Show up every day and on time. Put out effort. Have a positive attitude and listen. If you start that at 17 or 1, by 25 you can be making $15 to $20 an hour AT MCDONALDS or move to a better restaurant or another industry.