OT: American Labor

[paindonthurt]

The answer surely isn't artificially raising minimum wage by having people sit home and make more money than they ever have before. Then blame that on some moral standard b/c of covid.

Which is exactly what happened/is happening.

 

[Cooterpoot]

The answer surely isn't artificially raising minimum wage by having people sit home and make more money than they ever have before. Then blame that on some moral standard b/c of covid.

Which is exactly what happened/is happening.

Unemployment is at a record low. We're past that now, but you're correct. And when unemployment is that low, it's a huge indicator of a recession in the near future. We're in for an ugly ride the next couple years.

 

[engie]

I’m seeing businesses in a death spiral all around me. We can chicken or egg the fault of people not coming to work, but they are not coming to work. The people still working are having to cover the work for that open position as well, essentially working twice as hard as what’s likely sustainable. What happens when these people leave? As a guy who is looking at, at best, 3 weeks at home until August

 

[engie]

Unemployment is at a record low.

I see the numbers but it doesn’t match the reality on the ground. Not even remotely.

 

[jethreauxdawg]

You understand that’s not what’s being discussed in this thread

Teachers and social workers may disagree. Shortages for both, advanced degrees are common, yet pay is low.

You just want to argue. Does that bring you joy?

 

[Cooterpoot]

I see the numbers but it doesn’t match the reality on the ground. Not even remotely.

It does where I'm at. The lower end jobs might not be completely back, but everything else is rolling. I've got qualified people looking for jobs. They aren't finding anything above about $18 an hour and most about $12-15 an hour. Every opening we've had over the last few months has been filled.
That government teet turned off and people are hitting the reality of high prices and no money now. I'm anxious to see what the fed does next month. They almost can't go big, but they need to go big. Demand isn't falling and unemployment needs to be higher.

 

[paindonthurt]

I'm not acting like $15 an hour is some great pay, but when a dental hygienist in Mississippi Makes $19 to $25 ($25 being on the very high end), why should a burger flipper that requires zero skill make $15?

There is zero skill in working at a fast food or fast casual place. They literally try to make the processes so simple anyone could do it.

The issue really is that the people doing it and wanting $15/hr often miss multiple days a month or are late multiple times/month. They typically aren't in the job longer than 1 to 1.5 years. They make mistakes regularly that costs the business.

So why do they deserve $15?

 

[engie]

It does where I'm at. The lower end jobs might not be completely back, but everything else is rolling. I've got qualified people looking for jobs. They aren't finding anything above about $18 an hour and most about $12-15 an hour. Every opening we've had over the last few months has been filled.
That government teet turned off and people are hitting the reality of high prices and no money now. I'm anxious to see what the fed does next month. They almost can't go big, but they need to go big. Demand isn't falling and unemployment needs to be higher.

Every retail establishment I've entered in ~ 20 states since last Sept is still shorthanded and looking for help. I haven't seen that alleviated really at all. Granted, if there's blinders for my situation, it's that practically every area I actually spend much time in is affluent. My current employer is losing people left and right and struggling to replace them. I'm not looking to grace Mississippi again till July if anything goes wrong and at best for a couple weeks in that timeframe partially due to not having enough help. To the point I'm thinking about licensing my current LLC to hire contract labor to alleviate the strain on the rest of us. If I can afford to pay them and still make any money at all.

 

[mstateglfr]

I don't think you want to compare the production level of most "hedgefund guys" vs a mcdonalds burger flipper griping about $15/hr. I know you don't. Did some hedge fund managers make bad moves? Sure but a lot of them *WERE* paid for it.

You forgot a word.

 

[paindonthurt]

Yeah but that’s the beauty of this system.

When you 17 up there are consequences.

 

[paindonthurt]

The average worker in a career is getting pretty close to that.

The average person working a dead end job probably isn’t.

 

[paindonthurt]

But did the zip code cause or correlation?

 

[paindonthurt]

Do you realize there is a significant portion of people who quit jobs every year when they get their tax returns?

The same people who do that also got way more money from the government than they were used to making. So they still have a little money.

Some are still getting incentives.

 

[mstateglfr]

You understand that’s not what’s being discussed in this thread. You just want to argue. Does that bring you joy?

I am replying to your claim. How is that not pertinent to the thread?

You said people are paid on how hard it is to replace them.
I cited two jobs that exist across the country and heavily impact society, that dont follow your claim. Both require college degrees and are short staffed overall(so it is difficult to replace them), yet are paid relatively low.

Since it appears you dont want to address actual examples that do not at all follow your claim on the low side of the pay scale, we could just as easily look at the high end of the pay scale for more examples. C-Suites across the country are continually filled with people who are paid gobs of money even though results would be difficult to cite when justifying compensation. It would be quite easy to replace underperforming C-Suite level corporate leaders that are paid handsomely. Such jobs would be overflowing with replacements, actually. Who wouldnt want to have a job where they are paid in the 1% of compensation and underperforming results can be explained away by way of the many outside forces that have an effect on the lower levels of the company?

 

[mstateglfr]

Yeah but that’s the beauty of this system.

When you 17 up there are consequences.

 

[johnson86-1]

We have come to a point in America where unskilled labor is demanding skilled labor earnings. For example, general labor in a my industry which requires less than high school diploma is starting at around $20/hr plus signing bonus => that's ~ $43k for first year of employment. Add 5 hrs of overtime per week and that jumps over $50k. So an uneducated (no high school diploma, trade certificate, training course, etc.) couple can push to around $100k in first year. Other general manufacturing labor in my area seems to be paying similarly. That sets a baseline for where "normal" earnings start. This wage increase has been happening slowly for years but went into warp speed during covid and people getting $900/wk to stay at home and not work. I am by no means a business, accounting, finance expert but I struggle to see the current model as sustainable.

I've seen others refer to a reset. I assume this will be a Great Depression type period where hunger takes the place of pride and people start agreeing to work for lesser wages just to have a job. What say ye experts?

We may even see college student athletes happy to get free food and scholarships again.

View attachment 23938

There is nothing wrong with unskilled labor making as much as skilled labor as long as it's actual supply and demand driving it and not a distortion caused by government benefits. We've had a lot more people going to college over the last few decades. I'm not sure how many of those going to college are actually better or more qualified employees for it, but to the extent they are (or at least increase the supply of workers for skilled or white collar jobs), the pay gap between those jobs and unskilled jobs should shrink as there is more supply bidding down pay.

There are already a decent number of hard jobs that can only be done at current wages because they hire illegal immigrants and people that can't pass a drug test. You take away that supply of workers, and I suspect you'd see some unskilled but physically strenuous jobs get paid a good bit more than low level office jobs.

 

[johnson86-1]

I don't think you want to compare the production level of most "hedgefund guys" vs a mcdonalds burger flipper griping about $15/hr. I know you don't. Did some hedge fund managers make bad moves? Sure but a lot of them paid for it.

People get paid for the value they produce. If you can't show up to work daily on time, can't make quality consistently or efficiently, you shouldn't complain about more money. Working at mcdonalds and getting close to $15/hr doesn't take much. Show up every day and on time. Put out effort. Have a positive attitude and listen. If you start that at 17 or 1, by 25 you can be making $15 to $20 an hour AT MCDONALDS or move to a better restaurant or another industry.

I think this is an example of sanctifying the market. A more or less free market is by far the best thing for humanity as a whole, but that doesn't mean that people are paid what they are worth or what they are paid for is worthwhile. Hedgefunds provide a service, but they don't get paid a lot because providing some indirect pricing information is so valuable. They get paid a lot because when a lot of money changes hands, there is a chance to capture some of it and make a lot of money, and you only can do it if you're better at than other people. Burger flippers don't get paid much not because what they are doing isn't valuable, but because almost anybody can do it. As far as "production" goes, the burger flipper probably provides as much ore more benefit to humanity.

 

[johnson86-1]

If there is a God, hopefully this realization will drive down the cost of education.

Education has never been available more cheaply in the history of humanity. Our problem is credentialism and its cost, not education.

 

[dorndawg]

I'd pay good money to watch some folks in this thread work 1 hour at a busy fast food drive thru window.

 

[dorndawg]

Most Farmers vote Democrat for that reason.

Say you don't know any farmers without telling us you don't know any farmers

 

[jethreauxdawg]

Teachers get a ton of time off

And a pension when they’re in their 40’s if they start right out of school. I’d argue they are paid well when you factor that in, which you should because it is part of their compensation.
I don’t know anything about social worker compensation.
You say there is a shortage for these positions, but don’t define the proper staffing levels.
If the demand exceeds supply, pay will rise.
Are their some exceptions, probably. There seems to be exceptions to everything.
What other exceptions to the rule would you like to argue? I before E except after C? Take that up with your elementary teacher.

 

[dorndawg]

And that starts with entry level jobs paying entry level wages.

Yes, I understand real wages have been flat for many decades, however...

We don't want people to linger in jobs like fast food fry cook, or a porter at a car dealer, or a school janitor. We want them to move up as they age, and do things that are fundamental to economic growth .... like transportation, health care, construction and computing/networking. You don't have to be college material. You can do a variety of vocational jobs without a degree that get you over 50k a year and more.

The other effect of 15 dollar an hour wage for entry level jobs in one sector, is that other entry level professions will be forced to raise wages to stay competitive. Then you'll be back to where you started as inflation kicks in, wanting to make more money as your living costs increase. We're experiencing some of that now, although there is some background noise from Covid and the recent stimulus payments. But the bottom line is that if you want to make a living wage you need to be doing something fundamental to the economy. Not dropping fries in hot grease.

I reckon they can do it themselves, then.

 

[johnson86-1]

Given time any "reset" would result in the exact same people being in the exact same positions. In my experience, many (not all but many) people are where they are as a result of their own decisions.

This really isn't true. There are some people that are going to succeed no matter what, and there are some people that are going to fail, but there are many more people that are going to have a reasonably wide range of outcomes based on a lot of luck. I can think of one moron off hand making >$200k that has zero skills and would be making probably $60k a year in a low level office job except somebody that liked him kept getting promoted and bringing him along behind him. Everybody constantly has to fix his mistakes and he's not even particularly likeable, he just has the one right guy like him. He doesn't even suck up to him or anything. The guy just took a liking to him and has always been willing to go to bat for him. One of my coworkers who is very good at her job made about half what she should have for decades because she came from a background where she just didn't know what she's worth, and let a ****** company (really one supervisor) take advantage of her. Had she gone to big company that just promoted people and didn't make them fight for gains, she'd probably be making double what she makes now (which is already double what she made in her prior job). I have sales people call on me and some of them that are equally good have multiples of difference in their pay because they just went into a higher margin field of sales. No strategy to it. Just went into industries where they had family friends.

We have a system that is generally merit based and that's good enough to make us rich as a whole, but there's nothing magical about it where everybody gets what they deserve.

 

[johnson86-1]

Teachers and social workers may disagree. Shortages for both, advanced degrees are common, yet pay is low.

Pay is not low for teachers. They get paid a relatively high starting pay with a lot of job security and benefits and the tradeoff is they have a low ceiling. The reason you see so many teachers going the alternative route to teaching is that they realize that being a teacher is a much better job for them than trying to get a job with their degree. The people I see doing that aren't taking a pay cut to do it. They are getting a pay raise or at worst the same pay with much better hours.

 

[BoomBoom.sixpack]

And a pension when they’re in their 40’s if they start right out of school. I’d argue they are paid well when you factor that in, which you should because it is part of their compensation.
I don’t know anything about social worker compensation.
You say there is a shortage for these positions, but don’t define the proper staffing levels.
If the demand exceeds supply, pay will rise.
Are their some exceptions, probably. There seems to be exceptions to everything.
What other exceptions to the rule would you like to argue? I before E except after C? Take that up with your elementary teacher.

What he's trying to get across is that American business does not pay workers what they are worth, it pays them what they can get away with paying them. Anyone who's worked in the real world knows this. So no, they don't pay what it takes to replace a worker. A worker that does twice the work of others at their position does not get twice the pay. They get paid what it takes to replace them with an inferior replacement, and business executives eat the loss in productivity so as to fulfill their goals of driving down payroll. But that crap won't fly right now with many workers, and business is being slow to adjust. That's it, that's the story here.

 

[Maroon Eagle]

 

[johnson86-1]

The average worker in a career is getting pretty close to that.

The average person working a dead end job probably isn’t.

I am seeing just the opposite. The low end jobs are getting big raises just because they have to have it to survive. People further up the ladder are getting 3-4% raises and also losing a little bit more than that in spending power after inflation (because after taxes, they don't get a 3-4% raise in their take home pay).

 

[DerHntr]

Exactly. Its like 31k per year and that just is not much. No, it isnt poverty, but it also is barely sustainable in many parts of the country.
But screw it, I got mine so they need to just do the impossible and pull themselves up their bootstraps!

The thing that bothers me is you and many others actually think it’s “impossible”. You either have little faith in the abilities of the people you are talking about (lots of thread locking type assessments can be made here about those beliefs) or you think that you couldn’t make it out if you were in a similar situation. Either way, you live in a reality that I quite frankly don’t understand. People all around the world on a daily basis devise plans to make their way to America to better their situation. Some show up with absolutely nothing, including no education. Yet they come anyway because they don’t think it’s impossible in America to change their trajectory.

 

[paindonthurt]

Value is perceived.

Making a $5 burger that generates $1 profit to the investor isn’t worth as much as GM generating $200k profit on a store.

A GM generating $200k profit on a store isn’t worth as much as a hedge fund manager generating a lot more profit on a fund.

A burger flipper who sucks and rarely shows up to work probably makes $8/hr

A good burger flipper who is fast and doesn’t make mistakes and is always on time and willing to work more and stays longer generally gets closer to $15/hr than most people want to admit. WHY? Bc the one burger flipped is more valuable than the other burger flipper.

You could probably pick 999/1000 burger flippers and they’d be worse than 9,999/10,000 hedge fund managers at managing hedge funds.

 

[Beretta.sixpack]

not true at all

Most Farmers vote Democrat for that reason.

holy cow.....im sitting at the Gin Show right now in memphis with a few thousand farmers....i put the over/under at 1% voting democrat....taking the over would be very, very risky....

 

[paindonthurt]

Currently in this climate? Yes.

 

[D4L]

Does anyone else find it funny that 'Sixpack's Official Farmer" has DeSoto County in his name? lol

 

[paindonthurt]

No one is who working hard and trying there best is gonna be at $10/hr long term unless they have a lack of mental capacity. Even then most of those people figure out a way to make more than $10/hr if they are really trying.

 

[mstateglfr]

Teachers get a ton of time off
And a pension when they’re in their 40’s if they start right out of school. I’d argue they are paid well when you factor that in, which you should because it is part of their compensation.
I don’t know anything about social worker compensation.
You say there is a shortage for these positions, but don’t define the proper staffing levels.
If the demand exceeds supply, pay will rise.
Are their some exceptions, probably. There seems to be exceptions to everything.
What other exceptions to the rule would you like to argue? I before E except after C? Take that up with your elementary teacher.

Interesting- in our state, teachers are eligible for their full pension once they meet the rule of 88. Basically, years of service plus age has to equal 88. So someone starting right out of college at 22 would be eligible once they are 55. Having that full pension in your 40s is crazy to think of- the state you reference is really generous.

Mississippi's average public teacher salary is $45K. Starting pay is $37K. So if you have 180 days of education and 4 development days(thats kinda low, so a conservative guess) with each day being 7.75 hours(80-345) plus 2 hours per week outside of the conservative time listed for grading and planning, then a starting teacher makes $25/hour. Again, that is a very conservative rundown and reality is that the per hour pay is lower once actual time spent on the job is taken into account.

To be clear, Mississippi is SHORT 3000 public teachers per multiple recent reports.
There is a teacher shortage, so clearly it is not easy to fill the role and demand is there.
As for expecting me to define proper staffing levels, GT17O on that. We all rely on expert organizations to compile and interpret data in specific fields and markets- this is no different. If you think there isnt a teacher shortage, go cite some legitimate sources that confirm your claim. The obvious and well accepted narrative is that there is a shortage.

 

[mstateglfr]

Pay is not low for teachers. They get paid a relatively high starting pay with a lot of job security and benefits and the tradeoff is they have a low ceiling. The reason you see so many teachers going the alternative route to teaching is that they realize that being a teacher is a much better job for them than trying to get a job with their degree. The people I see doing that aren't taking a pay cut to do it. They are getting a pay raise or at worst the same pay with much better hours.

I genuinely dont understand this post.
You say so many teachers going an alternate route to teacher is because a teacher is a much better job for them than trying to get a different job with their degree. Wouldnt that mean teachers are not going alternate routes?

Also, teachers dont have a relatively high starting pay. $37,000 in 2022 for a job that requires a 4 year degree plus certification is not high starting pay.

 

[paindonthurt]

Define worth.

Most big companies make 15% to 25% to the bottom line. That’s a good return on working capital which they should expect right?

Yeah if I company is racking up 30% plus on sales year over year they are being greedy if they don’t share that with employees.

BUT MOST COMPANIES ARENT DOING THAT.

 

[aTotal360]

Our "poverty" level is so high that if you have a Samsung instead of an Apple phone, you are poor. Part of this problem is expectation. Not genuine livability. I'm not trying to diminish true poverty that exists in our country, because it does. But I have a tough time feeling sorry for the bartender in Manhattan that cannot afford to live there. Move to Starkville and have a great life. I want to live in Malibu, but I can't afford it.

To your point, people's level of satisfaction typically dictates their situation. Lots of people ***** about their plights. Very few do anything about it. You don't do anything about it until you are genuinely dissatisfied with your situation. If you do nothing, that typically means you are actually satisfied, though you outwardly complain.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

I've done it before ($3.35/hr). I think I still have it. Most feared words in the McDonald's grill area "BUS ON THE LOT!".

 

[johnson86-1]

I genuinely dont understand this post.
You say so many teachers going an alternate route to teacher is because a teacher is a much better job for them than trying to get a different job with their degree. Wouldnt that mean teachers are not going alternate routes?

That wording was a little confusing. I mean so many teachers that became teachers using the alternative route. In other words, non-teachers that did not major in education getting alternative certification because $37k plus local supplement plus pension plus less work is better than the alternative jobs they can get with a four year degree.

Also, teachers dont have a relatively high starting pay. $37,000 in 2022 for a job that requires a 4 year degree plus certification is not high starting pay.

I'm not sure about what happening now, but two years ago, that was a pretty high floor. Take out engineering and accounting, and how many four year degrees in Mississippi are going to average more than $37k as a starting salary, much less have it as a floor? And then get a pension with a COLA on top of it? They're certainly not killing it, but there are a lot of college graduates that have been working ten years that wish they had the security, pay, benefits, and time off that teachers have. And with the median household income being $45k in Mississippi, that also seems like a pretty good starting salary? Two first year teachers with the minimum certification and no local supplement are going to make 164% of the median household income and also have retirement while having more time off? Not saying I want to do that, but it's also crazy that people talk about teachers needing second jobs just to make it.

 

[mstateglfr]

The thing that bothers me is you and many others actually think it’s “impossible”. You either have little faith in the abilities of the people you are talking about (lots of thread locking type assessments can be made here about those beliefs) or you think that you couldn’t make it out if you were in a similar situation. Either way, you live in a reality that I quite frankly don’t understand. People all around the world on a daily basis devise plans to make their way to America to better their situation. Some show up with absolutely nothing, including no education. Yet they come anyway because they don’t think it’s impossible in America to change their trajectory.

No, I dont think it is impossible for people to climb the socioeconomic ladder. I could point to a ton of people I know who have improved their situation in life compared to where they started.
I have never said it is impossible to improve and if you have interpreted my posts to mean that, please take this opportunity to recognize that is not what I have said.

When there are 330mm people in a country, you can point to a lot of examples to 'prove' a point. I can absolutely cite lots of examples of people managing to overcome adversity and improve their life relative to where they started. I can also absolutely cite lots of examples of people not having the support system to learn the necessary skills to improve on their own and when coupled with the lack of assistance in getting started as an adult, they stall out or regress.
Hell, I can also cite examples where people with all the benefits in the world as kids end up being pieces of **** as adults and wasting all that they were handed.

The initial claim was that we would all end up right where we are if there were a reset. I think there would be people who would rise up if given equal opportunity thru life and I also think there would be people who fall down if they werent afforded extra opportunity.
Why that is controversial, I am not sure. But apparently it is.