Rates are not going down any time soon...
OT: CPI comes in hot - +3.5% year over year
- Thread starter alumnidawg
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Rates are not going down any time soon...
Bird Flu is back better go buy your eggs. They will be 10.0 a dozen. Back to the subject at hand, my wife and I shop together and prices are starting to go up at groceries stores. Box of cereal is 7.29 a box and that's not the king size. Hamburger went up a dollar a pound since last week. You don't need some stinking government agency telling you things suck right now in this country. You see it and you feel it.
Eventually the government is going to "have to step in". I can hear it already....
Beef is going to be on a steady increase for a while. There’s a pretty good supply crunch with right now I believe one of the lowest herd counts ever in the US. West Texas cattle got devastated last month so that’s not helping.
Eggs and poultry will fluctuate with bird flu breakouts.
Food price index took a dip since last fall but it’s on the rise again.
I wish that I would feel the need to buy guns, trucks and boats during non election years...
Well, most folks running the current government seem to love telling you that things actually don't suck right now and you're just imagining it all.
Since we just celebrated SPS's 21st birthday, how about a throwback quote from original sixpacker Cuzdawg:
"You know that doesn't surprise me."
I wonder what happened to Costanza. He worked really hard to hit that 10K post mark. Once he got there, he just stopped posting.
A guy who posts at that volume is still posting under a different username, I'm pretty sure. Dude had something like 10k posts as Cowpower before he changed his name to Costanza.
Unless he died. We're starting to get old, after all.
Yep. Commodity prices have so many other factors that influence pricing... Weather usually being the primary force.
Real time inflation is actually right at target. The shelter component accounts for about 40% of CPI and is still printing at 5.7%. This is adding about 1.5% to the headline number that probably shouldn't be there.
The shelter component is so 17ed up in CPI. It has about a 15 month lag. So while rent increases skyrocketed in 21' & early 22', they dropped just as sharply last year. (Rent increases, not rents... in 2021 you may have had a 10% annual rent increase, and in 2024 it's more like a 1-2% increase, but still not a decrease.) CPI doesn't look at real time data on rent and thus housing, they call people and ask them every year what rent looks like. So in a world of mostly 12 month leases, it takes forever to capture rental spikes in CPI.
Here's an example of Zillow real time data vs CPI slow as 17 data. Zillow real time data has been back to 2019 levels for 6 months. It will take another 6 months for CPI to finally get there.
Another way of visualizing this is to look at CPI overall inflation vs the CPI shelter component.it lagged by about 15 months on the way and will lag on the way down by the same amount of time.
Slow data sucks. The fed should track rental prices by using real time market data not 17ing mail or phone surveys of someone that signs a 12 month lease like it's 1965.
The risk is real time rents start going back up again, but the CPI goes down because of the lag... Fed drops rates and then rents and housing spikes again... It's a 5 year long 17ing yoyo in that world.
Cereal insider here: You can get 3 large boxes of Cap’n Crunch at Costco for $9 total. And no shrinkflation. Crunch Berries, peanut butter and regular. If the roof of your mouth can handle it it’s a must buy.
Good info. I think you’re seeing consistent trends in the data across jobs, inflation and growth.
The post-Great Recession (2009 - 2018) low interest rates, lower growth, business cycle is over. Post-COVID America has put its foot on the gas.
I'm genuinley curious, what cereal are you buying that's 7.29 a box?
What kind of cereal was $7.29? Truffle bunches of oats?
We have the lowest herd count to start the year since 1951. Back then the US population was 151M and we are at 340M now. So, prices are going up.
A study at Tulane last year claimed that 12% of the population consumes 50% of the beef though. The segment was 50-65 year old men. I’d need to see that data to know how they are making that claim to trust it.
In-laws sold some cows a about 2 weeks ago. One small calf (only 300+ lb) brought $4.04/lb. That's crazy high.
A lot of those shock value prices have to do with what is on sale... This stuff predates pandemia.
Cinnamon Toast Crunch at Grocery Store A in my town not on sale
Cinnamon Toast Crunch on Sale at Grocery Store B in my town right now:
You basically have to buy everything on sale using your "members" card at every grocery store not named Walmart, Costco, or Target these days.. it's a bit exhausting. But the reality is if it's on sale 75% of the time for $3.99 a box, that's the real price and the other 25% of the time the dubmass price is nearly double.
Depend on because it changes every week. It seems one-week Frosted Flakes is 7,29 and then the next Cheerios and Frosted Flakes are back down to 5.99. Then the next week another is up, and the last ones are down. It is rotated from cereal to cereal. It might be how Kroger's is handling the inflation. No cereal should be 7,29 a box.
A box of six small Moon Pies at Family Dollar use to be 1.00. Now it's 1.25. Moon Pies damn it. ******
This thread had convinced me. I think I'm about to start breeding cows now.
Can you just do them like sheep or should I tie their hind legs to something more sturdy than my boot straps first?
Can you just do them like sheep or should I tie their hind legs to something more sturdy than my boot straps first?
Was listening to Marketplace podcast this morning in anticipation of the number - They noted that there are over 55 cities in the US where the median price of a home has now reached 1 million dollars, in large part driven by lack of supply. Rent is going to move along with those home prices.
I'm investing in manufactured housing right now, lot of first time homebuyers are taking a look at that alternative, if they can find a relative with land and a locality that will allow it.
The current administration is proposing a 10K tax credit and some down payment assistance to first time homebuyers to try and reduce the effect of current interest rates, and cash incentives to try and pry people out of existing homes. From what I understand current construction is at a 50 year high, so there's a lot of building going on, but it isn't yet putting a dent in pricing.
Free Money isnt Free. Especially to those who pay taxes
And it looks like there won't be many crops dis year...
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I mostly agree... I think rents will be flat for a while though. Lots and I mean lots of multifamily construction completed last year, so that will help stabilize rents for a little while.
Investing in manufactured/factory built/modular is wise imo.
Now to the final piece: construction being at a 50 year high. Nobody explains this well so I will. It's very poor data.
Yes. We currently have an all time high of units under construction.
But that's a hollow number by itself. The number that doesn't get mentioned is how long it takes to build a house now. It takes effectively, twice as long to build a housing unit today as it did 20 years ago.
The number we should look at is starts. Starts tells us what is actually coming in terms of supply. Under construction could just be the last 3 years of starts added up, but can't get completed because of slow labor or delayed windows etc.
Here's what starts look like. Slightly below average.
You can also use the burger analogy. McDonald's cooks 5 burgers at a time on the flattop for 1 minute each. Burger King cooks 10 at a time for 5 minutes each. So while Burger King has 10 cooking right now, McDonald's can still cook 25 in the time it takes BK to cook 10.
Hope that makes sense.
That still doesn't explain why you can get a milk shake at McDonalds 2/3 of the times you ask. *********
IMO, all the building isn't helping first time home buyers at all. Fixed costs (for the builder) are currently really, really high. In my area, only 2 things are being built. $600k+ houses or $400k townhomes with sky-high HOA fees. The china virus and Trump keeping rates in the 2s, 3s, and 4s jacked up prices. The tidal wave of poorly timed investors buying up rental properties is also a big deal. They have to charge sky-high rents to pay their bills because they bought 6-12 too late (rates in the 8-10% for DSCR loans). These investors played follow-the-leader and it led them off a financial bridge.
Had captain crunch over the weekend for the first time in a very long time. It was delicious.
The housing market in my hood is tighter than a nun's bung hole. If a home is on the market longer than 48 hours it's because there's a meth lab in the basement or someone's punk kid used the living room as a indoor practice range.
That probably helps explain why starts aren't particularly high - high interest rates, labor and materials costs for builders isn't a particularly attractive environment for building starter homes - that's why I think manufactured housing has an in right now if the zoning laws would loosen up a bit.
I’m standing on the cereal aisle right now in Hernando Kroger. 7.49 for Captain Crunch. 7.00 for flipping Corn Flakes
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