OT: CPI comes in hot - +3.5% year over year

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mstateglfr

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Feb 24, 2008
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Free Money isnt Free. Especially to those who pay taxes
With regard to an increase in food costs, please read the red statistics below and answer the subsequent question.


How Profit Inflation Made Your Groceries So Damn Expensive
Meanwhile, the average CEO to worker pay ratio was 324 to 1, up 23% from 2019, or nearly twice the rate of inflation. CEO earnings grew 18%, 4 times the rate of wage growth. S&P 500 profits rose by 17.6% in 2021. Profit margins crested at 15.5% in 2022, the most profitable year since 1950, while corporations issued more than $300 billion in stock buybacks to institutional shareholders like Kapito’s BlackRock. The timing with price inflation is uncanny....Companies have 3 choices when they receive cost increases. They can absorb and take a hit on their margins. They can pass through and share the pain with customers. Or they can put an additional mark-up above and beyond the rate of cost increase, padding their margins at the expense of customers. Up and down the value chain, this profit-driven model is responsible for over 50% of consumer price inflation.


https://www.vox.com/money/23641875/food-grocery-inflation-prices-billionaires
Chances are, you’ve bought a product that the food giant Cargill has had a hand in sourcing or processing, whether it’s wheat, soy, cocoa, feed for livestock, or the meat that ends up in grocery stores and restaurants. In fiscal year 2022, its revenue reached a record $165 billion. A record $6.68 billion of that was profit, double what its profits were in 2020. Its shareholders received $1.21 billion of those profits in dividends — yet another record.
...

Tyson Foods, the largest meat company in the US, also more than doubled its profits between the first quarter of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022.
Packaged foods manufacturer
General Mills...has raised prices five times since 2021 and indicated another price hike could be coming soon. At the end of last year, its profits were up 97 percent compared to the previous quarter, and up 16 percent annually.
Conagra...noted a 22 percent profit increase in its last quarterly earnings report.

Grocery giant
Walmart — the largest US corporation, bar none — has seen its profits grow for the past several years, with a 7 percent jump between 2020 and 2021.



Direct question- do you think corporate profit increases these last few years play a role in the higher prices consumers pay at grocery stores?


Covid relief funds, which were created under both Trump and Biden, and many conservatives happily used for personal and business costs, definitely impacted inflation. But its absurd to try and claim that as the only reason why costs are so high 4 years after covid hit our shores.
I accept the reality that for-profit companies work to maximize shareholder value, and when they have power to adjust pricing up, they will. I dont view these companies as evil or whatever else- they are playing by the rules we set up as a nation and economy. I would be foolish to ignore these record profits when considering factors that have led to higher prices in the grocery store.
 

L4Dawg

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Well, most folks running the current government seem to love telling you that things actually don't suck right now and you're just imagining it all.
Current governments, no matter who they are, always do that. The ones out of power always tell you how bad it is. Neither are 100% correct, EVER.
 
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NTDawg

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We have the lowest herd count to start the year since 1951. Back then the US population was 151M and we are at 340M now. So, prices are going up.

A study at Tulane last year claimed that 12% of the population consumes 50% of the beef though. The segment was 50-65 year old men. I’d need to see that data to know how they are making that claim to trust it.
I can confirm. I consume roughly 1% by myself and I'm in the 50-65 age bracket
 

PooPopsBaldHead

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I can confirm. I consume roughly 1% by myself and I'm in the 50-65 age bracket
Yell Texas Am GIF by Texas A&M University
 
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Drebin

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Current governments, no matter who they are, always do that. The ones out of power always tell you how bad it is. Neither are 100% correct, EVER.
Yeah, but intelligent people who work for a living and pay taxes know which one is closer to honest about it than the other one. There's a difference between putting a positive spin on something and straight out gaslighting.
 

PooPopsBaldHead

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The issue with housing (not rental) is simply affordability. But a 6.5% interest rate isn't a bad rate historically. People just can't afford to build/buy their McMansions anymore.
This is a long term key to housing affordability.. The days of 3000 sf for a family of 4 are likely gone. We don't need craft rooms, 500 square feet of living room and 200 square feet of closet. My apologies to younger millennials and Gen Z, but you'll be fine... Most of you would rather live in a campervan anyway. 1500 sf will be fine.
 

johnson86-1

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Aug 22, 2012
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Was listening to Marketplace podcast this morning in anticipation of the number - They noted that there are over 55 cities in the US where the median price of a home has now reached 1 million dollars, in large part driven by lack of supply. Rent is going to move along with those home prices.

I'm investing in manufactured housing right now, lot of first time homebuyers are taking a look at that alternative, if they can find a relative with land and a locality that will allow it.

Terrible idea. Manufactured housing is for the poors. Tiny homes are where it's at.**
The current administration is proposing a 10K tax credit and some down payment assistance to first time homebuyers to try and reduce the effect of current interest rates, and cash incentives to try and pry people out of existing homes. From what I understand current construction is at a 50 year high, so there's a lot of building going on, but it isn't yet putting a dent in pricing.
I am genuinely getting tired of the insistence of this administration being stupid in public. I feel certain somebody in the administration has told them that we need more supply, and just helicoptering subsidies to people is not a super efficient way to create supply, and it mostly just drives up costs for everybody in the meantime. But they think their constituents are so 17ing stupid that they need to be stupid also.
 
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johnson86-1

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With regard to an increase in food costs, please read the red statistics below and answer the subsequent question.


How Profit Inflation Made Your Groceries So Damn Expensive
Meanwhile, the average CEO to worker pay ratio was 324 to 1, up 23% from 2019, or nearly twice the rate of inflation. CEO earnings grew 18%, 4 times the rate of wage growth. S&P 500 profits rose by 17.6% in 2021. Profit margins crested at 15.5% in 2022, the most profitable year since 1950, while corporations issued more than $300 billion in stock buybacks to institutional shareholders like Kapito’s BlackRock. The timing with price inflation is uncanny....Companies have 3 choices when they receive cost increases. They can absorb and take a hit on their margins. They can pass through and share the pain with customers. Or they can put an additional mark-up above and beyond the rate of cost increase, padding their margins at the expense of customers. Up and down the value chain, this profit-driven model is responsible for over 50% of consumer price inflation.


https://www.vox.com/money/23641875/food-grocery-inflation-prices-billionaires
Chances are, you’ve bought a product that the food giant Cargill has had a hand in sourcing or processing, whether it’s wheat, soy, cocoa, feed for livestock, or the meat that ends up in grocery stores and restaurants. In fiscal year 2022, its revenue reached a record $165 billion. A record $6.68 billion of that was profit, double what its profits were in 2020. Its shareholders received $1.21 billion of those profits in dividends — yet another record.
...

Tyson Foods, the largest meat company in the US, also more than doubled its profits between the first quarter of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022.
Packaged foods manufacturer
General Mills...has raised prices five times since 2021 and indicated another price hike could be coming soon. At the end of last year, its profits were up 97 percent compared to the previous quarter, and up 16 percent annually.
Conagra...noted a 22 percent profit increase in its last quarterly earnings report.

Grocery giant
Walmart — the largest US corporation, bar none — has seen its profits grow for the past several years, with a 7 percent jump between 2020 and 2021.



Direct question- do you think corporate profit increases these last few years play a role in the higher prices consumers pay at grocery stores?


Covid relief funds, which were created under both Trump and Biden, and many conservatives happily used for personal and business costs, definitely impacted inflation. But its absurd to try and claim that as the only reason why costs are so high 4 years after covid hit our shores.
I accept the reality that for-profit companies work to maximize shareholder value, and when they have power to adjust pricing up, they will. I dont view these companies as evil or whatever else- they are playing by the rules we set up as a nation and economy. I would be foolish to ignore these record profits when considering factors that have led to higher prices in the grocery store.
Just to be clear, Cargill had record profits and 4% margins. That doesn't exactly look like monopoly pricing to me.

But regardless, as you say, companies will adjust prices up when they can. The problem isn't companies which are the same the last few years as the decade before. The problem is profligate federal government spending along with a Fed that was too slow to react and then effectively changed their announced policy from 2% average inflation targeting to "something higher than 2%, but with a 2% target during 'normal' times".
 

Curby

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Aug 23, 2012
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Develop a taste for plant-based or digital beef. It's coming. Much of the ranch herds in the U.S. have been wiped out on purpose for the "cow farts destroying the atmosphere" crowd. Plus China and Bill Gates buying up much of the land used for cattle farming.
 

johnson86-1

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Aug 22, 2012
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How bout 3d printed homes... Have a top level construction friend that toured these and says its legit.


Honestly, the ridges look like **** to me.

We're going to have to do something though to account for the fact that labor is getting more expensive or we are going to have a lot (more) of homeless people. I feel like most places we could do as much or more for affordability by reducing all the restrictions and red tape around building and/or adding ADU's.

We are seeing builders adjust where I live as far as how small they build. The sweet spot for spec homes used to be 2400-2800 sq ft and the 1500-1700 sq ft homes basically all had really low end finishes. Not just normal ****** tract home construction, but also low end finishes. I guess the vast majority of the market preferred to add more sq footage before adding nicer finishes.
Now the sweet spot for spec homes seems to be around 1700 to 2200 sq ft, with way more of them at the lower range. They are still ****** tract homes at the end of the day, but they definitely have higher end finishes at that sq footage than they used to. And according to at least one tract builder, that's just what it takes to get to a price point that most buyers can afford.
 

Perd Hapley

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Sep 30, 2022
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Yep. Commodity prices have so many other factors that influence pricing... Weather usually being the primary force.

Real time inflation is actually right at target. The shelter component accounts for about 40% of CPI and is still printing at 5.7%. This is adding about 1.5% to the headline number that probably shouldn't be there.

The shelter component is so 17ed up in CPI. It has about a 15 month lag. So while rent increases skyrocketed in 21' & early 22', they dropped just as sharply last year. (Rent increases, not rents... in 2021 you may have had a 10% annual rent increase, and in 2024 it's more like a 1-2% increase, but still not a decrease.) CPI doesn't look at real time data on rent and thus housing, they call people and ask them every year what rent looks like. So in a world of mostly 12 month leases, it takes forever to capture rental spikes in CPI.

Here's an example of Zillow real time data vs CPI slow as 17 data. Zillow real time data has been back to 2019 levels for 6 months. It will take another 6 months for CPI to finally get there.
View attachment 555221

Another way of visualizing this is to look at CPI overall inflation vs the CPI shelter component.it lagged by about 15 months on the way and will lag on the way down by the same amount of time.

View attachment 555223

Slow data sucks. The fed should track rental prices by using real time market data not 17ing mail or phone surveys of someone that signs a 12 month lease like it's 1965.

The risk is real time rents start going back up again, but the CPI goes down because of the lag... Fed drops rates and then rents and housing spikes again... It's a 5 year long 17ing yoyo in that world.
So in other words, all the inflation metrics are still being driven by housing and housing alone. Which we already knew.

It’d be great if people would quit bullshítting on all sides of this. The Fed wants housing prices to come down. Not stabilize. Not stop going up. They want them to go down….way down. It’s a real problem, but not one the Fed can really fix. There’s not enough inventory. Shít needs to be built. Cities and states need to create incentives to make that happen. The data on groceries and gas and everything else is window dressing. No one is taking out loans to go buy 17ing eggs, even if it gets to $10 per dozen. There’s not much point in reporting on anything else in these monthly metrics. Stupid and pointless. Less beef / crawfish / crops / other products due to cicadas or bird flu or whatever? Great. Who gives a crap. People will pivot short term until prices come down on those very specific items. It’s the housing, stupid.
 

dorndawg

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Sep 10, 2012
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Just to be clear, Cargill had record profits and 4% margins. That doesn't exactly look like monopoly pricing to me.

But regardless, as you say, companies will adjust prices up when they can. The problem isn't companies which are the same the last few years as the decade before. The problem is profligate federal government spending along with a Fed that was too slow to react and then effectively changed their announced policy from 2% average inflation targeting to "something higher than 2%, but with a 2% target during 'normal' times".
Would you rather we have done austerity like in 2008? That took almost a decade to recover from?
 

mstateglfr

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Feb 24, 2008
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Just to be clear, Cargill had record profits and 4% margins. That doesn't exactly look like monopoly pricing to me.

But regardless, as you say, companies will adjust prices up when they can. The problem isn't companies which are the same the last few years as the decade before. The problem is profligate federal government spending along with a Fed that was too slow to react and then effectively changed their announced policy from 2% average inflation targeting to "something higher than 2%, but with a 2% target during 'normal' times".
Agree- that doesnt look like monopoly pricing and I am not claiming it to be.
And I agree that the Fed held interest rates too low for far too long. I remember a handful of years ago when there was public discussion over how 'the good times' would eventually have to slow down since the Fed would for sure raise rates soon. And I remember a beloved political figure repeatedly losing his mind for multiple years, in part because Powell wouldnt reduce rates even further, and wanted interest rates to be below 0.

The Fed 17ed up.
Trump's Admin 17ed up.
Legislators who created Covid relief bills that handed money to people who didnt need it and/or didnt have to pay it back 17ed up.
Biden's Admin 17ed up.


Many inputs were required to get us to where we are now. Some governmental and some for-profit corporate.
 

johnson86-1

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Aug 22, 2012
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Would you rather we have done austerity like in 2008? That took almost a decade to recover from?
I would have rather us not have been stupid. Don't unnecessarily destroy things. Don't hand out trillions in dollars after people have mostly stopped grossly overreacting. But assuming that's off the table, I'd rather the Fed apply their announced policy in the way that english speakers would interpret it. If your target is 2% average inflation, target 2% average inflation. After announcing that policy. Any three of those things would have made a huge difference in reducing the inflation we are sending now. THe first two would have been free lunches and wouldn't have really cost us anything on net. The third one would have involved some tradeoffs, but ones worth making.
 

IBleedMaroonDawg

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Nov 12, 2007
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Bird Flu is back better go buy your eggs. They will be 10.0 a dozen. Back to the subject at hand, my wife and I shop together and prices are starting to go up at groceries stores. Box of cereal is 7.29 a box and that's not the king size. Hamburger went up a dollar a pound since last week. You don't need some stinking government agency telling you things suck right now in this country. You see it and you feel it.

Yes, I love hearing how great our economy is when I can't buy groceries. Seriously, I was at the store recently with about the amount that would cost me $150 last year. It was 240.
 

pseudonym

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Oct 6, 2022
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With regard to an increase in food costs, please read the red statistics below and answer the subsequent question.


How Profit Inflation Made Your Groceries So Damn Expensive
Meanwhile, the average CEO to worker pay ratio was 324 to 1, up 23% from 2019, or nearly twice the rate of inflation. CEO earnings grew 18%, 4 times the rate of wage growth. S&P 500 profits rose by 17.6% in 2021. Profit margins crested at 15.5% in 2022, the most profitable year since 1950, while corporations issued more than $300 billion in stock buybacks to institutional shareholders like Kapito’s BlackRock. The timing with price inflation is uncanny....Companies have 3 choices when they receive cost increases. They can absorb and take a hit on their margins. They can pass through and share the pain with customers. Or they can put an additional mark-up above and beyond the rate of cost increase, padding their margins at the expense of customers. Up and down the value chain, this profit-driven model is responsible for over 50% of consumer price inflation.


https://www.vox.com/money/23641875/food-grocery-inflation-prices-billionaires
Chances are, you’ve bought a product that the food giant Cargill has had a hand in sourcing or processing, whether it’s wheat, soy, cocoa, feed for livestock, or the meat that ends up in grocery stores and restaurants. In fiscal year 2022, its revenue reached a record $165 billion. A record $6.68 billion of that was profit, double what its profits were in 2020. Its shareholders received $1.21 billion of those profits in dividends — yet another record.
...

Tyson Foods, the largest meat company in the US, also more than doubled its profits between the first quarter of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022.
Packaged foods manufacturer
General Mills...has raised prices five times since 2021 and indicated another price hike could be coming soon. At the end of last year, its profits were up 97 percent compared to the previous quarter, and up 16 percent annually.
Conagra...noted a 22 percent profit increase in its last quarterly earnings report.

Grocery giant
Walmart — the largest US corporation, bar none — has seen its profits grow for the past several years, with a 7 percent jump between 2020 and 2021.



Direct question- do you think corporate profit increases these last few years play a role in the higher prices consumers pay at grocery stores?


Covid relief funds, which were created under both Trump and Biden, and many conservatives happily used for personal and business costs, definitely impacted inflation. But its absurd to try and claim that as the only reason why costs are so high 4 years after covid hit our shores.
I accept the reality that for-profit companies work to maximize shareholder value, and when they have power to adjust pricing up, they will. I dont view these companies as evil or whatever else- they are playing by the rules we set up as a nation and economy. I would be foolish to ignore these record profits when considering factors that have led to higher prices in the grocery store.


1712771161147.png
 

PBDog

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Oct 1, 2021
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Agree- that doesnt look like monopoly pricing and I am not claiming it to be.
And I agree that the Fed held interest rates too low for far too long. I remember a handful of years ago when there was public discussion over how 'the good times' would eventually have to slow down since the Fed would for sure raise rates soon. And I remember a beloved political figure repeatedly losing his mind for multiple years, in part because Powell wouldnt reduce rates even further, and wanted interest rates to be below 0.

The Fed 17ed up.
Trump's Admin 17ed up.
Legislators who created Covid relief bills that handed money to people who didnt need it and/or didnt have to pay it back 17ed up.
Biden's Admin 17ed up.


Many inputs were required to get us to where we are now. Some governmental and some for-profit corporate.
covid giveaways are washed out. the current sticky inflation is due to the chief economist AOC style giveaways: inflation reduction act, govt spending, energy transition, student debt forgiveness, war spending, and immigrant giveaways.
 

Drebin

Well-known member
Aug 22, 2012
16,810
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With regard to an increase in food costs, please read the red statistics below and answer the subsequent question.


How Profit Inflation Made Your Groceries So Damn Expensive
Meanwhile, the average CEO to worker pay ratio was 324 to 1, up 23% from 2019, or nearly twice the rate of inflation. CEO earnings grew 18%, 4 times the rate of wage growth. S&P 500 profits rose by 17.6% in 2021. Profit margins crested at 15.5% in 2022, the most profitable year since 1950, while corporations issued more than $300 billion in stock buybacks to institutional shareholders like Kapito’s BlackRock. The timing with price inflation is uncanny....Companies have 3 choices when they receive cost increases. They can absorb and take a hit on their margins. They can pass through and share the pain with customers. Or they can put an additional mark-up above and beyond the rate of cost increase, padding their margins at the expense of customers. Up and down the value chain, this profit-driven model is responsible for over 50% of consumer price inflation.


https://www.vox.com/money/23641875/food-grocery-inflation-prices-billionaires
Chances are, you’ve bought a product that the food giant Cargill has had a hand in sourcing or processing, whether it’s wheat, soy, cocoa, feed for livestock, or the meat that ends up in grocery stores and restaurants. In fiscal year 2022, its revenue reached a record $165 billion. A record $6.68 billion of that was profit, double what its profits were in 2020. Its shareholders received $1.21 billion of those profits in dividends — yet another record.
...

Tyson Foods, the largest meat company in the US, also more than doubled its profits between the first quarter of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022.
Packaged foods manufacturer
General Mills...has raised prices five times since 2021 and indicated another price hike could be coming soon. At the end of last year, its profits were up 97 percent compared to the previous quarter, and up 16 percent annually.
Conagra...noted a 22 percent profit increase in its last quarterly earnings report.

Grocery giant
Walmart — the largest US corporation, bar none — has seen its profits grow for the past several years, with a 7 percent jump between 2020 and 2021.



Direct question- do you think corporate profit increases these last few years play a role in the higher prices consumers pay at grocery stores?


Covid relief funds, which were created under both Trump and Biden, and many conservatives happily used for personal and business costs, definitely impacted inflation. But its absurd to try and claim that as the only reason why costs are so high 4 years after covid hit our shores.
I accept the reality that for-profit companies work to maximize shareholder value, and when they have power to adjust pricing up, they will. I dont view these companies as evil or whatever else- they are playing by the rules we set up as a nation and economy. I would be foolish to ignore these record profits when considering factors that have led to higher prices in the grocery store.
This was almost impossible to read, but I gave it an attempt.

The free market is a check on this. If you're an entrepreneur, and you see that the big ol' evil, greedy Kroger is charging too much, maybe you see an opportunity to open your own store and sell for cheaper. If you can make it while having to pay for all the other costs that are inflated (product costs, delivery costs, higher energy costs for your building, higher wages to keep employees happy, etc.), then congratulations. Kroger will be forced to lower their costs to compete with you. You will have impacted the free market.

Consumer spending and consumption is also a check. If people are going to continue paying $1200 for a phone, despite bitching about the cost, then guess what? Apple is still going to make $1200 phones.

Blaming high costs on corporations is as dishonest as it is uneducated.
 

Drebin

Well-known member
Aug 22, 2012
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Congress can’t get out of their own way. The House Republicans are an absolute clown show.
No doubt. Out of one side of their mouths they gripe about spending and then they turn around and pass spending bills. And then the in-fighting from the extreme right of the base - it's just incompetence, and it's because there's a leadership vacuum.
 
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DesotoCountyDawg

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Consumer spending and consumption is also a check. If people are going to continue paying $1200 for a phone, despite bitching about the cost, then guess what? Apple is still going to make $1200 phones.

Blaming high costs on corporations is as dishonest as it is uneducated.
All the more reasons that consumer debt keeps going up. Always buy the biggest and best even if you can’t afford it.
 

Drebin

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Aug 22, 2012
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Would you rather we have done austerity like in 2008? That took almost a decade to recover from?
Yes. No quick implementation gets you into it, and no quick fix gets you out of it. The bill always comes due and you can't spend your way out of it.
 
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mstateglfr

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Feb 24, 2008
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I agree- corporations have always been greedy. As I initially posted, I dont fault corporations for increasing profit margin when they have the power to do so because they exist to maximize shareholder value.
My point in posting the info about increased profit margin was to show part of why groceries cost more now.
 

mstateglfr

Well-known member
Feb 24, 2008
13,466
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This was almost impossible to read, but I gave it an attempt.

The free market is a check on this. If you're an entrepreneur, and you see that the big ol' evil, greedy Kroger is charging too much, maybe you see an opportunity to open your own store and sell for cheaper. If you can make it while having to pay for all the other costs that are inflated (product costs, delivery costs, higher energy costs for your building, higher wages to keep employees happy, etc.), then congratulations. Kroger will be forced to lower their costs to compete with you. You will have impacted the free market.

Consumer spending and consumption is also a check. If people are going to continue paying $1200 for a phone, despite bitching about the cost, then guess what? Apple is still going to make $1200 phones.

Blaming high costs on corporations is as dishonest as it is uneducated.
I didnt blame high costs on corporations. I typed this in the post you quoted- I accept the reality that for-profit companies work to maximize shareholder value, and when they have power to adjust pricing up, they will. I dont view these companies as evil or whatever else- they are playing by the rules we set up as a nation and economy.
What I did was explain, which is different from blame.
I also dont view Kroger or other grocers as 'big ol evil greedy'.

The reason why I posted the numbers that show why part of the increased cost of groceries is due to higher profits and profit margins, was to help some see that the increased costs isnt all just due to Covid checks or other avoidable reasons. The government, regardless of who is in charge, wouldnt have stopped the increase in profits and profit margins I cited.
 

Drebin

Well-known member
Aug 22, 2012
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I agree- corporations have always been greedy. As I initially posted, I dont fault corporations for increasing profit margin when they have the power to do so because they exist to maximize shareholder value.
My point in posting the info about increased profit margin was to show part of why groceries cost more now.
But that's not why groceries cost more now. Groceries cost more because suppliers are charging more, energy costs are higher, transportation costs are higher, etc. Are corporations just supposed to eat a portion of that and make less money out of the goodness of their own hearts?

This is the whole argument that comes around with tax increases on corporations or raising the minimum wage - that cost always gets passed on to the consumer.
 
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