OT: Don't raise your children in Gulfport or Memphis

[Boom Boom]

Progressives did.

Naw, son. Progressives expected police to do their jobs like professionals. They threw a tantrum and didnt do their job. Who should get the blame?

And some DA's (Seattle, LA, Philly, Chicago etc)

Again, naw son. Some progressive DAs ran on reform, but they all are filling their prisons.

Covid was world wide but the crime increase wasn't. Crime rates declined in some countries. Thus, reason and logic say it wasn't Covid.

fair point, but invalid conclusion. Needs more data.

The poor, especially poor non-whites are more likely to suffer the consequences of policy preferences pushed by materially better off white progressives. That's the point. White progressives don't suffer from some policies they support. But by doing so they grant themselves absolution for our white supremacist past.

In some cases, not all. Exploding crime reaches into non-poor areas too.
The flip side to this is suburban conservatives don't suffer from police state tactics imposed in inner cities.

It's not about absolution or the past. You've got a lib right here telling you, please stop telling me what I really believe based on what Fox told you. It makes you come off as completely ignorant.

 

[Boom Boom]

Read closely. Some rare events are being highlighted here

I'm reading stats.

 

[Explodio Bungholio]

Not if you want to retire with some good years left in the tank.

Yeah yeah...somebody is going to murk me in Memphis but not in New York.

I lived in East Harlem for 4 years; walked them streets at all hours, and I don't know if I'd even live in Manhattan now.

 

[johnson86-1]

Would conservatives vote to increase taxes to pay for additional police officer or would they say cut the budget to do that?

"city and local taxes that are effectively spent." Good luck getting people to agree on what "effectively spent" means. That's dependent on ideology

Not really. Outside of some crazies that think criminals being arrested is bad and kids educations are less important than pushing whatever the flavor of the month indoctrination is, people are generally going to agree on what good schools and effective policing look like. They generally don't even push back on graft, as long as the basics are being taken care of first. It's when the graft comes first that taxpayers understandably ask how they are supposed to know that new taxes will go to the basics when existing taxes didn't.

 

[johnson86-1]

Correlation is not causation.

good advice.

no, it doesnt.

The US has a relatively high violent crime rate for a rich and developed country. It's certainly gotten better and was on a steady downward trend until the George Floyd riots, at which point some of those gains were given back.

Depends entirely on what you define as crime.

that was tried and didnt work. We have more per capira incarcerarion than any other nation, by far. Yet you claim we have very high crime. Can't you see a piece doesn't fit there?

I mean, it did work. Criminals in prison generally aren't committing crimes in the street. A lot of people think the human cost was too high, but as mentioned, crime dropped off a cliff over a few decades. Not only due to a high incarceration rate but it certainly helped.

Agreed.

 

[Podgy]

Naw, son. . They threw a tantrum and didnt do their job. Who should get the blame?

Again, naw son. Some progressive DAs ran on reform, but they all are filling their prisons.

fair point, but invalid conclusion. Needs more data.

In some cases, not all. Exploding crime reaches into non-poor areas too.
The flip side to this is suburban conservatives don't suffer from police state tactics imposed in inner cities.

It's not about absolution or the past. You've got a lib right here telling you, please stop telling me what I really believe based on what Fox told you. It makes you come off as completely ignorant.

"You've got a lib right here telling you, please stop telling me what I really believe based on what Fox told you. It makes you come off as completely ignorant." Yes. It's obvious that I'm completely ignorant. Completely. FYI, I don't watch Fox. And in the past you once accused me of being antisemitic although I have Jews in my family. I'll not stereotype you if you refrain from doing the same.

"Progressives expected police to do their jobs like professionals" We all do. We also realize there's not a long line of people willing to put their lives on the line as police officers, deal with the worst citizens, get shot at and run toward the shots when they hear them. We're gonna have some bad cops because of the nature of the profession. I agree we need fewer bad cops but most are professionals.

"The flip side to this is suburban conservatives don't suffer from police state tactics imposed in inner cities."
You don't have gang problems in the burbs. You don't have drug dealers on the corners in the burbs. You have citizens with social capital fleeing those places thus you don't need a large police presence. You don't have people sitting around all day outside. It's a different place

 

[Podgy]

I'm reading stats.

Do you know any police officers and have you ever gone on a ride along in a high crime area?

 

[mstateglfr]

We have a lot of people in prison. Not enough. How many additional murders, carjackings, rapes, violent crimes etc are we going to have this year by non-incarcerated people with criminal records? That's an indication that we don't have enough people in prison

Well it doesnt get any more direct than this- you think our prison system needs to expand for increased incarceration.
That is certainly one option to address social safety.
Quick question- is your name George Zoley?

 

[Podgy]

Well it doesnt get any more direct than this- you think our prison system needs to expand for increased incarceration.
That is certainly one option to address social safety.
Quick question- is your name George Zoley?

Yes and no. Had to look up his name. Would you be willing to expand housing in your neighborhood to accommodate criminals rather than putting them in jail or prison?

 

[mstateglfr]

Would you be willing to expand housing in your neighborhood to accommodate criminals rather than putting them in jail or prison?

I dont have the power to approve or kill such a scenario, but I would not be in favor of buildings being added in my neighborhood to specifically house criminals.

 

[Podgy]

I dont have the power to approve or kill such a scenario, but I would not be in favor of buildings being added in my neighborhood to specifically house criminals.

Where should we let these non-incarcerated citizens, these justice-involved people live? You prefer they live around someone else?

 

[Boom Boom]

The US has a relatively high violent crime rate for a rich and developed country. It's certainly gotten better and was on a steady downward trend until the George Floyd riots, at which point some of those gains were given back.


I mean, it did work. Criminals in prison generally aren't committing crimes in the street. A lot of people think the human cost was too high, but as mentioned, crime dropped off a cliff over a few decades. Not only due to a high incarceration rate but it certainly helped.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/highest-homicide-rates-by-region/

Homicides seems to follow drug activity. That's gonna skew "violent crime" stats.

The decades-long crime reduction correlates more than anything with reductions in lead exposure. I'm sure we've been over this before.

It worked, it didn't work. What is this, Schrodinger's crime rate?

 

[Boom Boom]

"You've got a lib right here telling you, please stop telling me what I really believe based on what Fox told you. It makes you come off as completely ignorant." Yes. It's obvious that I'm completely ignorant. Completely. FYI, I don't watch Fox. And in the past you once accused me of being antisemitic although I have Jews in my family. I'll not stereotype you if you refrain from doing the same.

I'm not stereotyping you, I'm letting you know that one specific refrain is making you look ignorant. But please, continue to tell me what I really believe because (insert whatever rightie source you imbibe) told it to you.

"Progressives expected police to do their jobs like professionals" We all do. We also realize there's not a long line of people willing to put their lives on the line as police officers, deal with the worst citizens, get shot at and run toward the shots when they hear them.

true. Pay them. Let the market resolve it.

We're gonna have some bad cops because of the nature of the profession. I agree we need fewer bad cops but most are professionals.

We're gonna have more bad cops when the system protects them.

"The flip side to this is suburban conservatives don't suffer from police state tactics imposed in inner cities."
You don't have gang problems in the burbs. You don't have drug dealers on the corners in the burbs. You have citizens with social capital fleeing those places thus you don't need a large police presence. You don't have people sitting around all day outside. It's a different place

And thug police work takes less taxes than paying professionals and enough of them. Easy for the suburbanites to demand the tax cut when they aren't the ones facing the repercussions on policing and liberties.

You don't seem to want to address that conservatives would never allow themselves to be treated by police how they expect others to be treated by police.

 

[Boom Boom]

Do you know any police officers and have you ever gone on a ride along in a high crime area?

Yes, yes, and no. I did grow up in Jackson though.

 

[Boom Boom]

Where should we let these non-incarcerated citizens, these justice-involved people live? You prefer they live around someone else?

How about monitored release leading to incarcerarion if terms are violated?

 

[mstateglfr]

Where should we let these non-incarcerated citizens, these justice-involved people live? You prefer they live around someone else?

Your earlier post made it sound like housing would be built on taxpayer'd dime and criminals would stay there for free. At least thats how I interpreted it since thats the only scenario I can think of where your scenario would happen.
Anything else would just be- houses are built and people buy them, the people happen to be criminals.

I dont support the scenario I envisioned you were asking about. It was such an odd question, I tried to figure out what you were actually asking and clearly got it wrong.

Anyways, I reject your argument that I either need to be in favor of jailing more people or support housing criminals in my neighborhood. Thats an absurd false choice.
One scenario you dont mention, and this is just one of many, would be to increase the number who are sentenced to prison, but reduce sentence lengths. That scenario may not require an increase in the number of prisons/cells.


^ I am not suggesting that scenario is what we should do, I only posted it because it is one of many that shows you are trying to create a false choice.
Other options would be adjusted support at early ages to help reduce those who turn to crime later on and addressing then combating common reasons for crime.
This is something that is so complex, it requires many approaches and possible solutions.

 

[Podgy]

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/highest-homicide-rates-by-region/

Homicides seems to follow drug activity. That's gonna skew "violent crime" stats.

The decades-long crime reduction correlates more than anything with reductions in lead exposure. I'm sure we've been over this before.

It worked, it didn't work. What is this, Schrodinger's crime rate?

Most people who do drugs do kill anyone. I get the word "seems" inserted here. The lead exposure thing has been debunked or at least considered an insignificant factor. It may play a small role. Was there increased lead exposure after Covid in cities that saw dramatic increases in crime? Bukele in El Salvador was once in charge of the country with the highest homicide rate in the world. He arrested criminals and dramatically increased the prison population and he's incredibly popular for doing so. No reductions in lead involved. We don't have an unlimited supply of murderers and carjackers, etc. Put the ones we have in prison, keep them there and crime will go down. El Salvador now has one of the lowest murder rates in the world.

 

[Podgy]

How about monitored release leading to incarcerarion if terms are violated?

Would you mind having such people live in your neighborhood and be monitored?

 

[Podgy]

Your earlier post made it sound like housing would be built on taxpayer'd dime and criminals would stay there for free. At least thats how I interpreted it since thats the only scenario I can think of where your scenario would happen.
Anything else would just be- houses are built and people buy them, the people happen to be criminals.



Anyways, I reject your argument that I either need to be in favor of jailing more people or support housing criminals in my neighborhood. Thats an absurd false choice.
.

They have to live somewhere. They typically live around poor people now. It's not an absurd, false choice. Have housing built for people on parole in your neighborhood and see what happens. Or is there a lot of lead in your neighborhood that might lead to recidivism?

 

[mstateglfr]

They have to live somewhere. They typically live around poor people now. It's not an absurd, false choice. Have housing build for people on parole in your neighborhood and see what happens.

If someone on parole wants to buy a house in my neighborhood, they can.
If the city wants to put transitional housing in my neighborhood, they can.

If my housing value is projected to drop, I may disagree. But that is no different from if a Microsoft were to buy up houses next to me for a Data Center- I would disagree with that too, since it would financially hurt me.

 

[Podgy]

If someone on parole wants to buy a house in my neighborhood, they can.
If the city wants to put transitional housing in my neighborhood, they can.

If my housing value is projected to drop, I may disagree. But that is no different from if a Microsoft were to buy up houses next to me for a Data Center- I would disagree with that too, since it would financially hurt me.

Really. Just the same. I haven't noticed bars on windows and doors where Microsoft is located. And not just one but lots of people on parole who are being housed there while they are on parole. I'd take Microsoft over that and I'm sure my wife would too although she may be reluctant to admit why publicly

 

[Podgy]

This experiment has been done, btw. Lots of people reveal their preferences by spending more money, sometimes considerably more, to live in a neighborhood away from the bottom quintile and to have a longer commute to work when they could save money by living in the same neighborhoods. Good luck getting them to admit it.

 

[johnson86-1]

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/highest-homicide-rates-by-region/

Homicides seems to follow drug activity. That's gonna skew "violent crime" stats.

It does follow drug activity to an extent, but the murder rates in the american drug trade seem very different than in western europe. Hell, lots of people in the US manage to buy drugs consistently without being exposed to drug violence and the dealers they buy from seem to avoid violence.

The decades-long crime reduction correlates more than anything with reductions in lead exposure. I'm sure we've been over this before.

It maps neatly depending on how you measure crime and how granular you look as far as area. For the US as a whole it maps well. When you look at individual areas and account for lead in those areas, it apparently maps less well. Maps better with general violent crime than it does with with murder (which of course is not all that matters and very well could be different from violent crime in general but it's the highest quality data because of the likelihood of murder being discovered and reported).

What I have seen says the studies with the high end estimates believe removal of lead from gasoline and generally paint and pipes accounts for around a third of the decrease with the most skeptical studies put it in a range of 0-5% of the reduction. I've never looked at an actual individual study to try to guess as to whether it's well done or does a good job of minimizing potential confounding variables.

It worked, it didn't work. What is this, Schrodinger's crime rate?

 

[johnson86-1]

How about monitored release leading to incarcerarion if terms are violated?

I feel like with how good and cheap gps units are now, we should use it a lot more, particularly for petty crime. People going around breaking into cars at night probably don't need to spend 5 years in jail but it's such a detriment to quality of life. It'd be nice if they spent at least a year or two being limited in the mischief they can cause and also having to pay some of the burden they impose rather than just being a straight drain on tax payers.

 

[Podgy]

It does follow drug activity to an extent, but the murder rates in the american drug trade seem very different than in western europe. Hell, lots of people in the US manage to buy drugs consistently without being exposed to drug violence and the dealers they buy from seem to avoid violence.



It maps neatly depending on how you measure crime and how granular you look as far as area. For the US as a whole it maps well. When you look at individual areas and account for lead in those areas, it apparently maps less well. Maps better with general violent crime than it does with with murder (which of course is not all that matters and very well could be different from violent crime in general but it's the highest quality data because of the likelihood of murder being discovered and reported).

What I have seen says the studies with the high end estimates believe removal of lead from gasoline and generally paint and pipes accounts for around a third of the decrease with the most skeptical studies put it in a range of 0-5% of the reduction. I've never looked at an actual individual study to try to guess as to whether it's well done or does a good job of minimizing potential confounding variables.

The book Dreamland by Quinones tracks the meth and opioid trade starting in Mexico and ending up in America. The Mexican street dealers preferred to sell to white people because they were less likely to be robbed and didn't have to worry about shootouts.

 

[Boom Boom]

It does follow drug activity to an extent, but the murder rates in the american drug trade seem very different than in western europe. Hell, lots of people in the US manage to buy drugs consistently without being exposed to drug violence and the dealers they buy from seem to avoid violence.



It maps neatly depending on how you measure crime and how granular you look as far as area. For the US as a whole it maps well. When you look at individual areas and account for lead in those areas, it apparently maps less well. Maps better with general violent crime than it does with with murder (which of course is not all that matters and very well could be different from violent crime in general but it's the highest quality data because of the likelihood of murder being discovered and reported).

What I have seen says the studies with the high end estimates believe removal of lead from gasoline and generally paint and pipes accounts for around a third of the decrease with the most skeptical studies put it in a range of 0-5% of the reduction. I've never looked at an actual individual study to try to guess as to whether it's well done or does a good job of minimizing potential confounding variables.

The one I saw showed correlation down to the city street.

 

[Uncle Ruckus]

Haha, there are thousands of cities worse than G'port.

Agree, but it's bad. Really bad. Like all places, there are plenty of great places to live there and there's a lot of good stuff in the area. But, the bad areas are really, really bad and it's getting worse.

 

[Podgy]

The one I saw showed correlation down to the city street.

Those must be some bad streets. We need to monitor those streets.

 

[Podgy]

Asian Americans have the lowest crime rates of any Americans. If all Americans behaved like Asian Americans we have murder rates like Europe. They also have the highest household wealth in America. How have Asian Americans managed to avoid lead exposure and dangerous streets?

 

[Explodio Bungholio]

S

Agree, but it's bad. Really bad. Like all places, there are plenty of great places to live there and there's a lot of good stuff in the area. But, the bad areas are really, really bad and it's getting worse.

What happened?? Wet Willy's and the Putt Putt next door was the highlight of every trip to the coast as a kid.
The Delta is just a waste of time now unless you're a farmer. I can tell you what happened to the Delta but I don't know what happened to Gulfport.

 

[Boom Boom]

Most people who do drugs do kill anyone. I get the word "seems" inserted here.

I think you meant to have a "dont" in there. I dont get the relevance though. Most people in the ghetto dont get convicted of crime. Thats still where the crime is.

The lead exposure thing has been debunked or at least considered an insignificant factor.

nope. Just rejected by those with an agenda to reject it. It's not the only factor of course.

It may play a small role. Was there increased lead exposure after Covid in cities that saw dramatic increases in crime?

No, but its possible there was a different environmental factor. We've loosened many restrictions. We wouldnt know for a couple decades.

keep in mind we also saw a massive drop in crime/arrests/convictions during the height of Covid. Likely a lot of PoSs that would have gone to prison just got a lucky delay and then combined with the baseline amount of PoSs for a "surge".

Bukele in El Salvador was once in charge of the country with the highest homicide rate in the world. He arrested criminals and dramatically increased the prison population and he's incredibly popular for doing so. No reductions in lead involved. We don't have an unlimited supply of murderers and carjackers, etc. Put the ones we have in prison, keep them there and crime will go down. El Salvador now has one of the lowest murder rates in the world.

I for one want more constitutional Freedom than the typical El Salvadoran.
Guess that makes me a radical these days.**

"The Salvadoran government blamed the spike in murders on criminal gangs in the country, resulting in the country's legislature approving a state of emergency that suspended the rights of association and legal counsel, and increased the time spent in detention without charge, among other measures that expanded the powers of law enforcement in the country."

Including, ARREST QUOTAS for the police. Yikes. And I thought ticket quotas were bad.

 

[Uncle Ruckus]

S

What happened?? Wet Willy's and the Putt Putt next door was the highlight of every trip to the coast as a kid.
The Delta is just a waste of time now unless you're a farmer. I can tell you what happened to the Delta but I don't know what happened to Gulfport.

I'm not sure exactly, but of lot of the Hattiesburg/Coast issue is crime moving from the New Orleans area post Katrina. Also, just society in general. I grew up in south MS in a small town that my mom still lives in. Never any real crime issues, and still no 'crime' to speak of, but the homeless problem is out of hand there. You are just seeing it everywhere. Gulfport has a huuuuge homeless issue as well. Gulfport also so some big gang issues.

 

[Explodio Bungholio]

I'm not sure exactly, but of lot of the Hattiesburg/Coast issue is crime moving from the New Orleans area post Katrina. Also, just society in general. I grew up in south MS in a small town that my mom still lives in. Never any real crime issues, and still no 'crime' to speak of, but the homeless problem is out of hand there. You are just seeing it everywhere. Gulfport has a huuuuge homeless issue as well. Gulfport also so some big gang issues.

I have friends in Brookhaven and they said pretty much the same thing about Katrina and Brookhaven. I'm sure Brookhaven's not like Gulfport but I can tell you it's certainly not what it was before. The big thing Brookhaven used to be known for was a being a "Home Seekers Paradise". Seeing that slogan around town in barely still there paint is about as funny as the big wall mural on the Greenville mall that says 'the finest shopping in the south!'

 

[Podgy]

I think you meant to have a "dont" in there. I dont get the relevance though. Most people in the ghetto dont get convicted of crime. Thats still where the crime is.

nope. Just rejected by those with an agenda to reject it. It's not the only factor of course.

No, but its possible there was a different environmental factor. We've loosened many restrictions. We wouldnt know for a couple decades.

keep in mind we also saw a massive drop in crime/arrests/convictions during the height of Covid. Likely a lot of PoSs that would have gone to prison just got a lucky delay and then combined with the baseline amount of PoSs for a "surge".

I for one want more constitutional Freedom than the typical El Salvadoran.
Guess that makes me a radical these days.**

"The Salvadoran government blamed the spike in murders on criminal gangs in the country, resulting in the country's legislature approving a state of emergency that suspended the rights of association and legal counsel, and increased the time spent in detention without charge, among other measures that expanded the powers of law enforcement in the country."

Including, ARREST QUOTAS for the police. Yikes. And I thought ticket quotas were bad.

Your argument hack doesn't work for me. You're not making an actual argument by writing Fox News or conservative websites and other predictable responses and you're not really telling me anything I don't already know but you seem to think is novel info that's gonna change my mind ("keep in mind"). Are you actually well-read on this issue? Have you read serious criminology? I'm not seeing it if you have. Do you even know police officers, judges, public defenders, etc that you've conversed with? It actually takes a lot to go to prison and our prisons aren't full of people with one conviction.

BTW, that's my point about inner-cities (ghetto is so incorrect) Arrest the few who terrorize most people and crime declines.

Bukele is popular and your response tells me you live in a safe neighborhood. Seems like Salvadorans know what's best for them and what makes their lives better more than educated and materially well-off white American liberals do. These aren't people who have the ability to live in your neighborhood. Crime matters to them because they've been terrorized by murderous gangs.

 

[Boom Boom]

Would you mind having such people live in your neighborhood and be monitored?

If they can afford the price/rent, and it's a petty crime, probably not.

Keep in mind, the worst crime my neighborhood saw was a group of teens stealing out of cars at night, every night, with the hapless cops doing nothing, and claiming they couldn't arrest the guys caught on multiple videos because they didn't see the crime in person. Not exactly The Shield over here.

 

[PBDog]

Most people who do drugs do kill anyone. I get the word "seems" inserted here. The lead exposure thing has been debunked or at least considered an insignificant factor. It may play a small role. Was there increased lead exposure after Covid in cities that saw dramatic increases in crime? Bukele in El Salvador was once in charge of the country with the highest homicide rate in the world. He arrested criminals and dramatically increased the prison population and he's incredibly popular for doing so. No reductions in lead involved. We don't have an unlimited supply of murderers and carjackers, etc. Put the ones we have in prison, keep them there and crime will go down. El Salvador now has one of the lowest murder rates in the world.

yes !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! build more prisons and fill them up and never let them out again. some people dont deserve freedom. and when those are full - build more then fill them

 

[Podgy]

BTW, how much lead do you think those kids in Jackson that carjacked those people in broad daylight were exposed to? How much lead do you think Dylan Roof was exposed to?

 

[Podgy]

yes !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! build more prisons and fill them up and never let them out again. some people dont deserve freedom. and when those are full - build more then fill them

Set them all free. Don't imprison anyone. Tear down all prisons. All people deserve freedom no matter what they do

 

[Explodio Bungholio]

BTW, how much lead do you think those kids in Jackson that carjacked those people in broad daylight were exposed to? How much lead do you think Dylan Roof was exposed to?

Somebody tries to carjack me they're definitely running a high risk of getting exposed to some lead.

 

[Podgy]

Black Twitter has a couple of interesting comments about this NYT article on where to raise kids. It's not hard to notice.

"I wonder who the YOU is"

"Typical racist NYT. Augusta: 55% Black Jackson: 83% New Orleans:58% Birmingham: 69% Gulfport: 38% San Bernardino: 13% Newark: 48% Cleveland: 48% Detroit: 77% Memphis: 64%"

"They basically just SAY it. Cities at the top have high median incomes, cities at the bottom have mostly Black and Hispanic populations."

"The f**ks wrong with augusta? Them folks are kind as f**k"

"Medgar Evars survived Normandy but not Mississippi"