OT: Economy - Since SPS is the best place to learn about economics. Thoughts?
- Thread starter horshack.sixpack
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Bull market has been going on for a long time and at some point it’s going to correct itself. With what the Fed did the other day, it appears they’ve accepted that a recession is on the way.
Throw in this banking “crisis” (which I still think has been overblown by media and social media hysterics) and you’ve got another notch in the tally for recession fears.
Throw in this banking “crisis” (which I still think has been overblown by media and social media hysterics) and you’ve got another notch in the tally for recession fears.
Economists have correctly predicted 27 out of the last 3 recessions.
I don't believe unemployment numbers. In the past 20 years, they've tweaked the way they calculate those numbers to benefit the party in power.
Looks like the VID kinda put an artificial notch in the system. If not for that shaking up everything, we'd probably already be in a real recession.
Just stick to your guns. Eventually there will be a 1) Recession or 2) Bull Market. The key is don't ever change your prediction so you can always be right.
I see this argument often, that calls into question the accuracy and it puzzles me. A graph like this shows trends. Unless the people creating this graph used different criteria for different years, then this trend graph has some meaning whether you agree with how the numbers are calculated or not.
I'm not arguing the premise of the graph. Just throwing my 2 cents in about the numbers. I agree with the overarching point its making.
It was obvious in the late teens that the good times couldnt last- high stock growth + near 0 interest rates + low unemployment simply cant last for a long time.
It did last longer than it probably should have, due in part to manipulation by powers trying to let the good times roll, but here we are with the obvious fall out that anyone who is honest can say they knew it would come. Regardless of who would be in power and regardless of what was happening in the world(China v Taiwan, Russia v Ukraine, Taliban v nobody), there would have to be an economic correction from what we saw in the late teens.
If we see a recession in the coming year, that will really suck, but it will really not surprise me.
I dont look forward to all the finger pointing by simpletons on both sides who cant grasp complexity and will loudly claim this is all due to 1 thing. Meanwhile, there will be a dozen+ 1 things mentioned, which will make it all comical to anyone with perspective.
- Its because of oil prices and lack of support for giant multinationals!
- Its because of the Green Deal!
- Its because of woke policy!
- Its because illegals are flooding our border- they terk err jerbs!
- Its because the last administration forced interest rates to stay low!
- Its because people demand a livable wage to flip a burger!
- Its because the last administration printed money and sent out Trump Checks!
- Its because the current administration printed money and sent out Biden Bucks!
- Its because China released a global virus in order to make them the largest economy!
- Its because Russia invaded Ukraine and disrupted natural gas and wheat!
- Its because giant companies used supply shortages from 2-3 years ago to jack up prices!
- Its because the Fed didnt react quickly enough!
etc etc etc.
It did last longer than it probably should have, due in part to manipulation by powers trying to let the good times roll, but here we are with the obvious fall out that anyone who is honest can say they knew it would come. Regardless of who would be in power and regardless of what was happening in the world(China v Taiwan, Russia v Ukraine, Taliban v nobody), there would have to be an economic correction from what we saw in the late teens.
If we see a recession in the coming year, that will really suck, but it will really not surprise me.
I dont look forward to all the finger pointing by simpletons on both sides who cant grasp complexity and will loudly claim this is all due to 1 thing. Meanwhile, there will be a dozen+ 1 things mentioned, which will make it all comical to anyone with perspective.
- Its because of oil prices and lack of support for giant multinationals!
- Its because of the Green Deal!
- Its because of woke policy!
- Its because illegals are flooding our border- they terk err jerbs!
- Its because the last administration forced interest rates to stay low!
- Its because people demand a livable wage to flip a burger!
- Its because the last administration printed money and sent out Trump Checks!
- Its because the current administration printed money and sent out Biden Bucks!
- Its because China released a global virus in order to make them the largest economy!
- Its because Russia invaded Ukraine and disrupted natural gas and wheat!
- Its because giant companies used supply shortages from 2-3 years ago to jack up prices!
- Its because the Fed didnt react quickly enough!
etc etc etc.
Odd- I saw it initially. It was something from the 1800s it looked like and showed 3 levels of economic activity thru the years.Looks like my second graph didn't post...
The liquidity crunch at banks is real but not to the point you should see banks failing often. But it’s real enough that banks are starting to signal they will have to slow loan growth, which will almost certainly lead to a recession.
Same has they have done with inflation. They are making some change to it soon, or perhaps recently, that affects the way housing costs are calculated. This way they can make it sound better than it is.
This is what scares me. Instead of letting the natural cycle of the economy work itself out, both parties heavily manipulated it with massive subsidies and near zero interest rates for a long time. My fear is they've not only postponed the inevitable recession, they've juiced things up so much it's going to be worse than it would have been if they've let things play out over the last decade or so.
Wall Street has been heavily investing in ESG as opposed to working for their clients in a fiduciary fashion. Then we decide to attack fossil fuels which is the foundation of every economy. Even Clyburn admitted on T.V. the Dems knew the excessive money printing and spending were gonna cause inflation before they did so. Inflation is the hidden tax that affects the poorest of our citizens the worse. Unleashing as opposed to regulating the private sector is the key to economic growth and it's the only answer to getting us outta the schit we're in now.
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Everything is always over overcorrected to create a more immediate response so the people in power can get short term praise. Then it 17s us in the end.
I agree with this. All the soft landing vs. hard or crash landing talk - in my mind a recession IS a soft landing. Recessions are just a part of the economic cycle, but nobody wants it to happen on their watch. They have always been a political hot potato, but its been made worse by talk radio, 24 hour news, the internet, social media, and the low brow sky is falling rubes who eat, sleep and breath all that ****.
For sure- +1 to all this. Those in power did what they thought they needed to do to stay in power in the short term, and to hell with the repercussions down the line.
Obama's 2nd term had shades of this, Trump's tenure had shades of this, and Biden's group has shades of this.
It isnt all decisions, but you can definitely look at some and immediately think 'well thats just happening to try and kick the can down the road'.
What of those 12 singular reasons that will be(and have been) claimed is going to ruin this thread?
I listed reasons that have been given by both sides and I did not claim some are more or less valid that others, I only listed them.
Why would that ruin the thread?
17ing participate in this discussion or go research college basketball players who havent yet expressed an interest in transferring and guess the likelihood that they come to MSU. Ill get it started- Jaylen Forbes at Tulane just wrapped up 4 years of ball and could come to us as a 5th year grad student. Now you go.
Thread Ruination = Processing
Labor participation rate is still below pre pandemic levels.
I am not an economist, so I won't take a dab at it however I am not a gynecologist, but I will take a look.
Every economics thread by the end I'm unsure if I've learned something or if I know less than beforehand.
I just hope it brings down the price of pickups. I need one bad and have been putting it off for about three years. And need two service trucks for my company. Frick $100 K for a truck with a $20 K "market adjustment".
Those openings are going away too. You're going to start seeing it in the news soon. I deal with vendors all over the country. They're all eliminating jobs, not hiring. Inflation can't die down if people are still employed and spending like drunken whores.
overrated cigars? For that money, just buy Davidoffs and you’ll be much happier.
This probably won't ever get back to where it was either. Lots of people with two income households realized they were barely breaking even on having two incomes after factoring in the cost of childcare, lunch at work, commuting, etc. Or even if the money made sense, their quality of life with both spouses working may not have made them happy.
3/4 ton trucks are absolutely 17ing ridiculous and used ones are even worse.
Hope you’re right. i think this would be good for families and our country.
Yep. I got lucky and work at home now. Going to see more and more people working remotely and living where they want to live instead of being tied to a job in a specific location too. I'm looking at moving to Starkville now. Wife is about to go remote too. Staying home saved me almost a $1000 a month. I suspect lots of that is part of why spending hasn't fallen enough.
Also it means a lot of working age people are sitting on their @SS drawing a check.
I sold my business at the beginning of COVID to stay home with kids because my wife made more money and had great benefits, plus she could work remotely. We soon realized that both of us working full time had us in a perpetual rat race. We were lucky to get more than a week a year of vacation/travel because of school and work commitments.
Now we are able to take off anytime the kids are out of school and go wherever we want for however long we want. Doing a 3 week road trip to the beach, 2 weeks of camping in the mountains, and 10 days at Yellowstone/Tetons between now and early October. I'll get to teach them how to fly fish and backpack this summer. Took them skiing at least 40 times this winter. We are living in a smaller house than we otherwise might and when we pass the kids will probably inherit a little less, but from here on out we are not going to both have full time jobs again.
I went through some interviews this winter and got two offers for regional and national sales management positions. Neither could/would get to a number that justified my wife quitting her job and me switching over to the one traveling/working. She may burn out or get canned eventually, but right now her ability to work remote is a game changer. I'm constantly looking at businesses that can be passively managed or run part time. If the right one comes along I will jump on it. Otherwise I might start substitute teaching or working at the ski resort next fall when my youngest goes to Kindergarten just to cure the boredom... Whatever I do we are keeping our flexibility at a maximum going forward.
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