OT: Economy - Since SPS is the best place to learn about economics. Thoughts?

[PooPopsBaldHead]

Also it means a lot of working age people are sitting on their @SS drawing a check.

Not really anymore. Early on in 2020 and 2021 that was true. That unemployment number is basically at an all time low now. That's the people drawing the check. The participation rate decline is the people that decided to retire early or focus on family.

Not sure if the welfare/"crazy check" game has increased. But I know lots of people from my circle that left the dual income rat race and are way happier with less stress in their lives.

Point being, I don't think there is a quick solution to the labor shortage. There is not a big cohort out there ready/wanting/needing to go back to work. Now you want to solve the welfare class that has existed for 50 years, we may find some people.

One issue I see though is good jobs are getting cut (tech and management) and the open jobs tend to be entry level service jobs. If that trend continues it could cause a nastier and longer lasting recession. But I don't think the Fed had the stones to let go on for too long.

 

[Boom Boom]

Not really anymore. Early on in 2020 and 2021 that was true. That unemployment number is basically at an all time low now. That's the people drawing the check. The participation rate decline is the people that decided to retire early or focus on family.

Not sure if the welfare/"crazy check" game has increased. But I know lots of people from my circle that left the dual income rat race and are way happier with less stress in their lives.

Point being, I don't think there is a quick solution to the labor shortage. There is not a big cohort out there ready/wanting/needing to go back to work. Now you want to solve the welfare class that has existed for 50 years, we may find some people.

One issue I see though is good jobs are getting cut (tech and management) and the open jobs tend to be entry level service jobs. If that trend continues it could cause a nastier and longer lasting recession. But I don't think the Fed had the stones to let go on for too long.

What happened to all the peeps on here insisting that the crazy checks was what was driving low unemployment and wage gains? I thought the $15 McDs jobs were supposed to disappear with the checks?

 

[jethreauxdawg]

What happened to all the peeps on here insisting that the crazy checks was what was driving low unemployment and wage gains? I thought the $15 McDs jobs were supposed to disappear with the checks?

I thought people were saying the government (if that’s what you are referring to by “crazy”) checks were driving the high numbers of people not going to work and thus the $15 McDs jobs. I don’t know what McDs is currently paying but the one I drive by no longer has the sign out front advertising high starting pay and I personally hired someone for $1/hr less than I could 6 months ago. Not sure if I’m agreeing with your post, refuting it, or neither.

 

[peewee.sixpack]

I thought people were saying the government (if that’s what you are referring to by “crazy”) checks were driving the high numbers of people not going to work and thus the $15 McDs jobs. I don’t know what McDs is currently paying but the one I drive by no longer has the sign out front advertising high starting pay and I personally hired someone for $1/hr less than I could 6 months ago. Not sure if I’m agreeing with your post, refuting it, or neither.

I believe they are referring to Crazy checks as people who are getting Mental Disability Checks.

 

[ronpolk]

I just hope it brings down the price of pickups. I need one bad and have been putting it off for about three years. And need two service trucks for my company. Frick $100 K for a truck with a $20 K "market adjustment".

No doubt truck prices are ridiculous. I hope I’m wrong about this but I don’t think either dealerships or manufacturers want that situation to change. Dealerships found operating with no inventory to be a much more profitable business environment. They essentially have people on a waiting list and as soon as the new truck hits the lot they have it sold.

 

[Cantdoitsal]

I see ESG has entered the chat.

Why shouldn't it? Over $649 billion flowed into ESG-focused funds the last year¹ as investors increasingly pushed conversations about climate change and social justice with companies and regulators alike. By the end of 2021, the massive influx of capital led to ESG funds comprising roughly 10% of worldwide fund assets.Jan 28, 2022

 

[Mobile Bay]

This probably won't ever get back to where it was either. Lots of people with two income households realized they were barely breaking even on having two incomes after factoring in the cost of childcare, lunch at work, commuting, etc. Or even if the money made sense, their quality of life with both spouses working may not have made them happy.

And a lot of older people called it a day and retired in 2020.

 

[ababyatemydingo]

No doubt truck prices are ridiculous. I hope I’m wrong about this but I don’t think either dealerships or manufacturers want that situation to change. Dealerships found operating with no inventory to be a much more profitable business environment. They essentially have people on a waiting list and as soon as the new truck hits the lot they have it sold.

Dodge lots have stayed full. Ford and Chevy artificially kept empty lots way past Covid supply chain issues. To give the illusion that there was a supply issue. Im starting to see more and more Ford lots filling up, with trucks sitting there past 60 days. Chevy is still playing the "supply is low" game, but I suspect the 2nd quarter of 2023 will change that. With interest rates continuing to edge up, and repossessions also edging up, late Q2 into mid Q3 will probably be when we see them start to come off of these ridiculous prices. I went perusing around a Ford lot just for shites and giggles and let a sales guy approach me and I asked him why they still had the huge market adjustments on the trucks. He said "oh that sticker has been on there a few months. We're starting to discount now". But by that, he meant "we're starting to sell at MSRP". I think late Q2 into mid Q3 is going to be the time to buy.

 

[Cantdoitsal]

You just can't dispute this kinda common sense.

 

[She Mate Me]

This is what scares me. Instead of letting the natural cycle of the economy work itself out, both parties heavily manipulated it with massive subsidies and near zero interest rates for a long time. My fear is they've not only postponed the inevitable recession, they've juiced things up so much it's going to be worse than it would have been if they've let things play out over the last decade or so.

I believe you're wise to be scared. The Fed's sway over the global economy has been tremendous for basically 45 years. There will come a point when they can't keep the balls in the air any longer. It might be 6 months it might be 6 years, but we're going to have a depression like correction in these markets

Acknowledging it is not the same as rooting for it.

 

[thatsbaseball]

What happened to all the peeps on here insisting that the crazy checks was what was driving low unemployment and wage gains? I thought the $15 McDs jobs were supposed to disappear with the checks?

The "craziest " checks I've ever seen was the insane spending on "Covid relief". I doubt that over 30-40% of that money hit it's mark . Billions and billions of dollars went to businesses and people who didn't need it or deserve it. Basically most of it went straight towards enhancing the inflation we see today.

 

[mstateglfr]

Also it means a lot of working age people are sitting on their @SS drawing a check.

Are they though?
If unemployment is at an all time low, then that would mean few people are sitting on their butts drawing a check...right?
Maybe I misunderstand what 'a check' refers to specifically.


Your post just seems like the typical bitter person who blames 'the lazy', whether justified or not.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

This is what scares me. Instead of letting the natural cycle of the economy work itself out, both parties heavily manipulated it with massive subsidies and near zero interest rates for a long time. My fear is they've not only postponed the inevitable recession, they've juiced things up so much it's going to be worse than it would have been if they've let things play out over the last decade or so.

Right. So is normal now = natural cycle or is normal = heavy fed manipulation? If you went more Laissez-faire do things get better? It's a mess. The good news is that our political parties have decided to focus on culture wars over economic issues.***

 

[Leeshouldveflanked]

Household debt in US has increased $122 Billion since May 2021. Average credit card interest is around %20 right now. Lots of people upside down right now.

 

[PooPopsBaldHead]

Household debt in US has increased $122 Billion since May 2021. Average credit card interest is around %20 right now. Lots of people upside down right now.

That sounds like a big number, but it's not considering there are 131 million households in the US. Adds up to $930 per household.

A better way to track debt is total household debt vs GDP and household debt service to disposable income. Both are still lower than it was pre COVID which was historically low.





The average household is in much better debt shape than anytime in precovid history.

 

[Jacknut]

Unemployment may be low in some sectors, but the restaurant industry hasn't caught up at least in my personal experience. All the <25 year-olds who used to work these jobs have gone away. And I don't think they all got desk jobs.

 

[ababyatemydingo]

Are they though?
If unemployment is at an all time low, then that would mean few people are sitting on their butts drawing a check...right?
Maybe I misunderstand what 'a check' refers to specifically.


Your post just seems like the typical bitter person who blames 'the lazy', whether justified or not.

This doesn't take into consideration people who have fallen completely out of the job market. It only takes into consideration those that are drawing unemployment checks For whatever reason, there are a lot who have completely fallen out of the job market

 

[horshack.sixpack]

Odd- I saw it initially. It was something from the 1800s it looked like and showed 3 levels of economic activity thru the years.

Oddly, it disappeared when I posted it in a separate reply. One more try here because it is irritating me...

ETA: I'm not proposing this is correct, just interesting.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

The "craziest " checks I've ever seen was the insane spending on "Covid relief". I doubt that over 30-40% of that money hit it's mark . Billions and billions of dollars went to businesses and people who didn't need it or deserve it. Basically most of it went straight towards enhancing the inflation we see today.

Think of all the jobs it created through the need to prosecute all the people who scammed the system!***

 

[BoDawg.sixpack]

I drive an '86 Honda CRX and I eat bologna sandwiches every day. I sleep in a space underneath my parents staircase and I check SPS on my Blackberry for my daily entertainment. I bank the rest of my paycheck in various funds after those expenses. You may drive a nicer vehicle but there's a good chance my portfolio is bigger than yours.

 

[jethreauxdawg]

Oddly, it disappeared when I posted it in a separate reply. One more try here because it is irritating me...

ETA: I'm not proposing this is correct, just interesting.

View attachment 321455

I respect the effort

 

[paindonthurt]

I see this argument often, that calls into question the accuracy and it puzzles me. A graph like this shows trends. Unless the people creating this graph used different criteria for different years, then this trend graph has some meaning whether you agree with how the numbers are calculated or not.

If you have 100 data points over time for unemployment numbers that were calculated differently (which is true) then dump those data points into a graph and compare it to anything, the trends might not be accurate bc they are not compared properly.

 

[Dawgbite]

And a lot of older people called it a day and retired in 2020.

Me, me, me! You young whipper snappers better not 17 social security before I get there. Some of you really need to get a second job and pay a little more taxes.

 

[msugrad2003]

Oddly, it disappeared when I posted it in a separate reply. One more try here because it is irritating me...

ETA: I'm not proposing this is correct, just interesting.

View attachment 321455

Can you confirm this was printed in 1875?

 

[Mobile Bay]

You just can't dispute this kinda common sense.

Asking that question to Milton Friedman is like a pitcher wanking up to Hank Aaron with a tee and setting the ball exactly where he wants it. The entirety of "Free to Choose" is on youtube and everybody needs to watch it.

 

[Mobile Bay]

The only way I am paying 100k for a truck is if she comes with it.

 

[patdog]

Me, me, me! You young whipper snappers better not 17 social security before I get there. Some of you really need to get a second job and pay a little more taxes.

It's going to happen. Just a question of when and how much. Right now, looks like 20% cuts in about 9 years. I'm sure they'll do something to delay the cuts, but they're inevitable. The current model just isn't sustainable.

 

[mstateglfr]

This doesn't take into consideration people who have fallen completely out of the job market. It only takes into consideration those that are drawing unemployment checks For whatever reason, there are a lot who have completely fallen out of the job market

Correct, unemployment doesn't take I to account people who aren't looking to work. That's why retired 85 yearolds aren't included in unemployment numbers.

Those who have fallen completely out of the job market also aren't collecting unemployment money.
I mention this to tie it back to Lee's dumb comment.

 

[dudehead]

Bull market has been going on for a long time and at some point it’s going to correct itself. With what the Fed did the other day, it appears they’ve accepted that a recession is on the way.
Throw in this banking “crisis” (which I still think has been overblown by media and social media hysterics) and you’ve got another notch in the tally for recession fears.

Depends on how long banks are on bonds

I believe you're wise to be scared. The Fed's sway over the global economy has been tremendous for basically 45 years. There will come a point when they can't keep the balls in the air any longer. It might be 6 months it might be 6 years, but we're going to have a depression like correction in these markets

Acknowledging it is not the same as rooting for it.

I thought that back in 2009 and 2010 and they just kept the hammer down full speed ahead free money.

 

[Boom Boom]

You just can't dispute this kinda common sense.

Friedman-ites have accurately predicted the last 137 out of 1 periods of inflation.**

 

[The Cooterpoot]

This is going to be bad for our NIL

 

[jethreauxdawg]

Asking that question to Milton Friedman is like a pitcher wanking up to Hank Aaron with a tee and setting the ball exactly where he wants it. The entirety of "Free to Choose" is on youtube and everybody needs to watch it.

I’ve heard of people being into humiliation but that seems really messed up.

 

[MrKotter]

That sounds like a big number, but it's not considering there are 131 million households in the US. Adds up to $930 per household.

A better way to track debt is total household debt vs GDP and household debt service to disposable income. Both are still lower than it was pre COVID which was historically low.

View attachment 321452

View attachment 321453

The average household is in much better debt shape than anytime in precovid history.

Creative way to express total BS

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

This same illustration was in a daily email I get every morning from my grain marketer and a link to a write up about it.

Visualizing the Link Between Unemployment and Recessions

This infographic examines 50 years of data to highlight a clear visual trend: recessions are preceded by a cyclical low in unemployment.

www.visualcapitalist.com

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

Creative way to express total BS

Well can you refute what he said?

 

[OopsICroomedmypants]

I believe you're wise to be scared. The Fed's sway over the global economy has been tremendous for basically 45 years. There will come a point when they can't keep the balls in the air any longer. It might be 6 months it might be 6 years, but we're going to have a depression like correction in these markets

Acknowledging it is not the same as rooting for it.

exactly

 

[MrKotter]

Well can you refute what he said?

You wouldn't understand it.

 

[Mobile Bay]

You wouldn't understand it.

So the answer is no.

 

[PooPopsBaldHead]

Creative way to express total BS

You wouldn't understand it.

Why don't you give it a whirl sport?

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

You wouldn't understand it.