OT: Global Markets

Status
Not open for further replies.

GloryDawg

Well-known member
Mar 3, 2005
14,473
5,299
113
Sad Les Miserables GIF by ProBit Global
 

GloryDawg

Well-known member
Mar 3, 2005
14,473
5,299
113
Honest question: Over three days the Dow has dropped 2000 points. At what point will they pause trading?
 

Boom Boom

Well-known member
Sep 29, 2022
1,942
1,091
113
Honest question: Over three days the Dow has dropped 2000 points. At what point will they pause trading?
It was mostly a drop right at open, reflecting what global markets did over the weekend. Seems stable at the moment.
 

Boom Boom

Well-known member
Sep 29, 2022
1,942
1,091
113
I figure after the election there's going to be a huge surplus of money into the economy as well.... Either through tax cuts or student loan forgiveness. And I know which one I prefer.
Hmm. I think if student loans gets worked out, it will be a be a compromise that vastly limits interest paid, only. So that's more of a future gift than an immediate economic impact. If anything it will limit the money supply as that interest money doesn't come in to investors. But, it will get those benefittees spending more as well.

Tax cuts. Meh, more billions for those with trillions. Will goose asset prices a bit. If I'm being selfish (like a good capitalist!), I'd prefer they do that when I'm retired. Now, those child tax credits, sign me up for that! That will goose my future wealth more than any other proposal (well, assuming other proposals don't tank things).
 

Boom Boom

Well-known member
Sep 29, 2022
1,942
1,091
113
Inflation has been at target for 6 months. The lag in housing data was propping up headline CPI. Anyone could see it but somehow the Fed/Powell ignored it.
My take, at the risk of derailing this convo (i will bow out after saying this piece, to try to avoid derailing).

You have several Trumpie board members who openly want to cut in December. You have members going by the data (including or maybe solely the "lefties", or maybe none at all on the Board but their take known by the Board) saying cut now. So the centrists on the Board said, September.

This is the real world impact of a far right Republican Party and raging Centrists who refuse to see it and continue to try to split the baby, both running this country. Everything will result in worse outcomes than it should have been.

We need to relearn that "moderate" means you side with logic and reason, and if that means siding with one Party for 20 years until the other gets its head out of its @SS, then so be it.
 
  • Like
Reactions: dorndawg

retire the banner

Well-known member
Dec 29, 2022
1,508
2,697
113
My take, at the risk of derailing this convo (i will bow out after saying this piece, to try to avoid derailing).

You have several Trumpie board members who openly want to cut in December. You have members going by the data (including or maybe solely the "lefties", or maybe none at all on the Board but their take known by the Board) saying cut now. So the centrists on the Board said, September.

This is the real world impact of a far right Republican Party and raging Centrists who refuse to see it and continue to try to split the baby, both running this country. Everything will result in worse outcomes than it should have been.

We need to relearn that "moderate" means you side with logic and reason, and if that means siding with one Party for 20 years until the other gets its head out of its @SS, then so be it.
Ah, there it is. This all because of the “far right” and “centrists”.
 
  • Like
Reactions: PBDog

Dawgzilla2

Well-known member
Oct 9, 2022
865
1,009
93
Percentage-wise, these drops aren't really that big. I'm staying put, and possibly investing more this afternoon.
I expect a "dead cat" bounce as quickly as tomorrow.
But I suck at investing for some reason. All I know is, with everyone talking about a recession, this was bound to happen.
 

Anon1704414204

Well-known member
Jan 4, 2024
880
727
93
Iran better think hard about it. I have a feeling Iseral is going to take out their money makers if Iran attacks.
The kinda "Thinking" your thinking about prolly aint going on now in Tehran. Can you imagine a bomb in your Palace goes undetected for 2 months then blows up the moment your foreign dignitary enters his visiting quarters? What kinda mindset you think they have right about now? I'd say one that's scared schitless and thinking 72 Virgins so why not go out guns ablazing fulfilling your promise of death to Israel.
 

johnson86-1

Well-known member
Aug 22, 2012
12,234
2,459
113
My take, at the risk of derailing this convo (i will bow out after saying this piece, to try to avoid derailing).

You have several Trumpie board members who openly want to cut in December. You have members going by the data (including or maybe solely the "lefties", or maybe none at all on the Board but their take known by the Board) saying cut now. So the centrists on the Board said, September.

This is the real world impact of a far right Republican Party and raging Centrists who refuse to see it and continue to try to split the baby, both running this country. Everything will result in worse outcomes than it should have been.

We need to relearn that "moderate" means you side with logic and reason, and if that means siding with one Party for 20 years until the other gets its head out of its @SS, then so be it.
Or maybe, just maybe, the same people that 17ed it up by waiting too late to increase rates are now waiting too late to drop rates?

I still think that's too early to make that claim though. The risks to the fed weren't symmetrical here. They burned through so much credibility when they essentially redefined "average" to mean something closer to "low end of the range" that dropping rates too early would be much worse than dropping them too late. If they moved too early, we'd have worse inflation and pretty much guaranteed a recession anyway. If we have a mild recession to make sure we don't have another bout of nasty inflation, that's not the worst result in the world.
 

GloryDawg

Well-known member
Mar 3, 2005
14,473
5,299
113
The kinda "Thinking" your thinking about prolly aint going on now in Tehran. Can you imagine a bomb in your Palace goes undetected for 2 months then blows up the moment your foreign dignitary enters his visiting quarters? What kinda mindset you think they have right about now? I'd say one that's scared schitless and thinking 72 Virgins so why not go out guns ablazing fulfilling your promise of death to Israel.
The thing is it might not have been the Iseral. It could have been some inside group that planted it waiting on a high-profile target. Don't get me wrong I think Iseral had something to do with it. I was just saying. The thing is if they attack, Iseral will take out anything and everything oil. There is nothing the clown show living part time in the WH can do about it.
 

PBDog

Well-known member
Oct 1, 2021
1,033
757
113
Or maybe, just maybe, the same people that 17ed it up by waiting too late to increase rates are now waiting too late to drop rates?

I still think that's too early to make that claim though. The risks to the fed weren't symmetrical here. They burned through so much credibility when they essentially redefined "average" to mean something closer to "low end of the range" that dropping rates too early would be much worse than dropping them too late. If they moved too early, we'd have worse inflation and pretty much guaranteed a recession anyway. If we have a mild recession to make sure we don't have another bout of nasty inflation, that's not the worst result in the world.
can you imagine waiting until you hit exactly 1.99 before cutting rates??? these are the 17tards we’re depending on. this is like not touching the brake pedal until you reach the white line at the stop light
 

pseudonym

Well-known member
Oct 6, 2022
2,489
3,556
113
You have several Trumpie board members who openly want to cut in December. You have members going by the data (including or maybe solely the "lefties", or maybe none at all on the Board but their take known by the Board) saying cut now. So the centrists on the Board said, September.
I had to read this twice to make sure by "board members" you didn't mean sixpackers. I needed to know that you don't think markets are crashing because right-leaning sixpackers don't listen to left-leaning sixpackers.
 

PBDog

Well-known member
Oct 1, 2021
1,033
757
113
The thing is it might not have been the Iseral. It could have been some inside group that planted it waiting on a high-profile target. Don't get me wrong I think Iseral had something to do with it. I was just saying. The thing is if they attack, Iseral will take out anything and everything oil. There is nothing the clown show living part time in the WH can do about it.
those puss iranians will telegraph a few softballs retaliations with zero damage. these allah morons are not that stupid
 
  • Like
Reactions: GloryDawg

horshack.sixpack

Well-known member
Oct 30, 2012
9,065
5,068
113
Wow, Japan got smoked. Between their sovereign debt levels, the lack of birthing and the weakness of the yen they are circling the drain.
The US is not adding children at replacement levels either. We better fix immigration or we are going to be right on their heels.
 

johnson86-1

Well-known member
Aug 22, 2012
12,234
2,459
113
can you imagine waiting until you hit exactly 1.99 before cutting rates??? these are the 17tards we’re depending on. this is like not touching the brake pedal until you reach the white line at the stop light
Maybe there are still members that actually meant "average" in the normal use of the word with their FAIT policy and didn't agree with redefining "flexible" to mean, "flexible to redefine the meaning of average"?

But they just had some upside surprises in the last few months. Their monthly reading for March and April (so really that would be April and May as far as them getting the data) would have been something like 7.8% and 4.6% if annualized over a year. Again, they couldn't afford to cut too early. If it turns out they cut too late, that won't be surprising at all considering their incentives.
 

TrueMaroonGrind

Well-known member
Jan 6, 2017
3,675
856
113
I personally think we're a long way from that happening. You know this could still turn out to be just a large correction and doing something like stopping trading could just create more panic .
Stop being level headed! We need to panic NOW!!!*****

We’ll see how the week shakes out. No one knows what is going to happen. This is what the modern day media loves to pump headlines out for. Fear makes them money. Honestly they’ve been putting out recession headlines for 2 years. They’ll keep going after this too. The media has predicted 1000 out of the last 3 recessions.
 
  • Like
Reactions: thatsbaseball

johnson86-1

Well-known member
Aug 22, 2012
12,234
2,459
113
The US is not adding children at replacement levels either. We better fix immigration or we are going to be right on their heels.
Fixing immigration isn't going to help that. Doesn't mean it isn't a good idea to fix it, but people in the US aren't holding off on having babies because illegals are flooding over the border while we make it unreasonably hard for skilled workers to immigrate legally.

That's more of a cultural issue than policy issues. But government might could help a good bit by stopping the huge financial penalties it puts on parenting through social security and medicare.
 

Anon1704414204

Well-known member
Jan 4, 2024
880
727
93
Inflation has been at target for 6 months. The lag in housing data was propping up headline CPI. Anyone could see it but somehow the Fed/Powell ignored it.

If you want to know what inflation is really doing, don't use slow and antiquated government data. Private data tells the real story in real time.

The red line marks when we hit 2% back in February according to Truflation.

View attachment 622409

Good news is we have lots of room to wiggle on the Fed Funds rate. Fed could drop rates 300bps and we'd still be higher than any other time in 15 years (excluding the last 2 years.) 4.5% 30 year mortgages would unlock the housing jam and create a lot of refi activity that will get the economy pulled back up quickly.

View attachment 622419

I figure after the election there's going to be a huge surplus of money into the economy as well.... Either through tax cuts or student loan forgiveness. And I know which one I prefer.
No such thing as "Student Loan Forgiveness". That's just another dishonest title on a book cover like 'Inflation Reduction Act". The contents show not forgiven only transferred to those who don't owe it.
 

Boom Boom

Well-known member
Sep 29, 2022
1,942
1,091
113
Fixing immigration isn't going to help that. Doesn't mean it isn't a good idea to fix it, but people in the US aren't holding off on having babies because illegals are flooding over the border while we make it unreasonably hard for skilled workers to immigrate legally.

That's more of a cultural issue than policy issues. But government might could help a good bit by stopping the huge financial penalties it puts on parenting through social security and medicare.
hall of fame game missed the point GIF
 

mstateglfr

Well-known member
Feb 24, 2008
13,466
3,379
113
How could it be??!!!

We’ve been told the economy is thriving for the last 3 1/2 years ********
Is the economy the same as investment markets?...or are the separate, even if they are both sometimes impacted by the same outside force?

This question was also asked back in '17-'19, since it seemed like many would argue one is strong by pointing to the other's performance.
 

mstateglfr

Well-known member
Feb 24, 2008
13,466
3,379
113
Fixing immigration isn't going to help that. Doesn't mean it isn't a good idea to fix it, but people in the US aren't holding off on having babies because illegals are flooding over the border while we make it unreasonably hard for skilled workers to immigrate legally.

That's more of a cultural issue than policy issues. But government might could help a good bit by stopping the huge financial penalties it puts on parenting through social security and medicare.
Changes to immigration laws, which would increase legal immigration to offset a decrease in domestic population growth, would help to offset a decrease in domestic population growth.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Get unlimited access today.

Pick the right plan for you.

Already a member? Login