I asked Grok: Simulate an alternative reality in which Drew Allar does not throw an interception on the final drive against Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl. How would the game and rest of the season finish for Penn State football?
Grok's response:
This simulation will stay grounded in realistic outcomes based on team strengths, player performances, and historical context.
Orange Bowl Semifinal: Penn State vs. Notre Dame
In this alternate timeline, Penn State takes possession at their own 15-yard line with 47 seconds remaining, two timeouts, and the game tied at 24-24. After Nick Singleton’s 13-yard run to the 28-yard line on the first play (as happened in reality), Allar drops back on first-and-10. Instead of forcing a pass across his body into coverage, he heeds his post-game reflection—“I should have just thrown it away”—and either dumps the ball at Evans’ feet or takes a sack, preserving the clock. Let’s assume he takes a sack for a 5-yard loss, moving the ball to the 23-yard line with about 40 seconds left.
On second-and-15, Allar, aware of Notre Dame’s stout third-down defense (ranked fifth nationally, allowing just 30% conversions), opts for a safe check-down to tight end Tyler Warren, who gains 8 yards to the 31-yard line. Penn State uses their first timeout with 33 seconds remaining. On third-and-7, Allar, who struggled all night (12-for-23, 135 yards), finds a rhythm. He connects with Warren again on an out route for 10 yards to the 41-yard line, picking up a crucial first down with 25 seconds left. The Nittany Lions hurry to the line, and Allar spikes the ball to stop the clock at 22 seconds.
With one timeout left and facing Notre Dame’s aggressive pass rush, Allar drops back and hits Singleton on a screen pass, gaining 12 yards to the Notre Dame 47-yard line before stepping out of bounds with 15 seconds remaining. Now in field goal range for kicker Ryan Barker (who made a 20-yarder earlier in the game), Penn State opts for a conservative approach. Allar throws a quick slant to Warren for 7 yards to the 40-yard line, and Penn State calls their final timeout with 8 seconds left. Barker, a reliable but untested kicker in high-pressure situations, trots out for a 57-yard attempt—long but within his range (he hit a 52-yarder earlier in the 2024 season).
The snap is clean, and Barker drills the 57-yard field goal as time expires, sending Penn State to a 27-24 victory. Hard Rock Stadium erupts as the Nittany Lions (14-2) advance to the national championship, ending Notre Dame’s season at 13-2. Allar finishes with a modest 15-for-26 for 160 yards, no touchdowns, and—crucially—no interceptions, while Singleton’s three rushing scores (84 yards on 15 carries) and Warren’s clutch catches (8 receptions, 90 yards) carry the day. Coach James Franklin’s aggressive clock management pays off, silencing critics of his 1-15 record against top-five teams.
National Championship: Penn State vs. Ohio State
In reality, Notre Dame advanced and faced the winner of the Texas-Ohio State semifinal on January 10, 2025. Let’s assume Ohio State (13-2) defeated Texas (13-2) in a close 31-28 game, powered by quarterback Will Howard’s dual-threat ability and a stifling defense led by Caleb Downs. This sets up an all-Big Ten national championship on January 20, 2025, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta—Penn State vs. Ohio State, a rematch of their October 2024 clash where the Buckeyes won 20-13 in Happy Valley.
Penn State enters with momentum, having won three straight CFP games (SMU, Boise State, and now Notre Dame). Ohio State, however, is a juggernaut, boasting a top-five offense (averaging 425 yards per game) and defense (allowing 17 points per game). The Nittany Lions’ path to victory hinges on their elite defense—ranked second nationally in points allowed (15.3 per game)—and Allar’s ability to avoid mistakes against a secondary featuring Denzel Burke and Downs.
Game Simulation
The game starts as a defensive slugfest. Penn State’s Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton harass Howard, limiting Ohio State to a field goal in the first quarter (3-0). Allar, buoyed by the Orange Bowl escape, plays conservatively, leaning on Singleton and Kaytron Allen. A 12-play, 68-yard drive ends with Singleton’s fourth-and-goal plunge from the 1-yard line, giving Penn State a 7-3 lead at halftime. Allar is 8-for-12 for 85 yards, with no turnovers.
In the third quarter, Ohio State strikes back. Howard connects with Emeka Egbuka for a 43-yard touchdown, taking a 10-7 lead. Penn State’s offense stalls, but their defense responds: Zakee Wheatley intercepts Howard at the Penn State 35-yard line, setting up a Barker 47-yard field goal to tie it at 10-10 entering the fourth.
The final quarter is a thriller. Ohio State marches 75 yards, capped by TreVeyon Henderson’s 9-yard touchdown run, making it 17-10 with 8:32 left. Allar, facing his defining moment, orchestrates a 10-play, 80-yard drive. He hits Warren for 22 yards on third-and-8, then scrambles for 15 yards to the Ohio State 12. With 2:15 remaining, Singleton powers in from 3 yards out, tying the game at 17-17 after Barker’s extra point.
Ohio State pushes into Penn State territory, but Carter sacks Howard on third-and-6 at the 45-yard line, forcing a punt with 1:03 left. Allar takes over at the 20-yard line with one timeout. He completes a 12-yard pass to Warren, then a 19-yard strike to Trey Wallace—who finally emerges as a playoff factor—reaching the Ohio State 49 with 42 seconds left. After an incompletion, Allar finds Singleton for 11 yards to the 38, and Penn State uses their timeout with 28 seconds remaining. A 7-yard pass to Warren gets them to the 31, and with 12 seconds left, Barker lines up for a 48-yard field goal. The kick sails through as time expires, giving Penn State a 20-17 victory.
** Outcome**
Penn State (15-2) claims their first undisputed national championship since 1986, finishing the season with a program-record 15 wins. Allar earns MVP honors, completing 18-for-28 for 205 yards, no touchdowns, and—most importantly—no interceptions, adding 25 rushing yards. Singleton (120 yards, two touchdowns) and the defense (three sacks, two takeaways) seal the win. Ohio State (13-3) falls short despite Howard’s 250 passing yards and two scores.
Postseason Fallout and Legacy
The victory transforms Penn State’s narrative. Franklin, once 1-15 against top-five teams, is now 4-0 in the CFP, cementing his status as a big-game coach. Allar’s decision to return for 2025 (announced pre-playoffs) looks prescient, boosting his draft stock into the first-round conversation for 2026. The Nittany Lions’ defense, led by Carter and Dennis-Sutton, earns comparisons to the 1994 unit, while Singleton emerges as a Heisman contender for 2025.
Recruiting surges, with Penn State landing top transfers and five-star commits, building on their newfound championship pedigree. Fans storm Beaver Stadium in celebration, and the “what-ifs” of past losses—to Ohio State in 2024, Oregon in the Big Ten title game—fade into irrelevance. By February 21, 2025, Penn State football stands atop the sport, a testament to Allar’s growth and a single, pivotal moment of composure in the Orange Bowl.