OT: July CPI next week
- Thread starter PBDog
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You'd really dig my place, the yard is gravel. Almost no maintenance... Except for removing the 10+ feet of snow in the winter.***
A word everyone needs to be aware of going forward is “Allocation” . This is the trend going forward for goods and services.
I'd love your place in the summer and the Keys in the winter...If I'm gonna dream might as well go for it all **
I knew that finance manager at the dealership was 17ing me. I just wasn't sure how. I thought it was the $1,000 finance titling fee but apparently it was making me pay for it three years faster than I had to.
I like where your head is at on this but its called politics and incompetence. Both are contributors to why the Fed was so late to act. Now they have to catch up in a compressed timeframe which will create that word that nobody can seem to define.
They are really behind the eight ball because they have to assess the change impact from time to time so they don't go too far. Kind of hard when congress is constantly pumping money into the economy. Raise rates and stop the spend.
Expectations matter for inflation. The new bill won't matter right now, but if it looks like it's going to pass and there are going to be a couple hundred extra billion dollars over the next few years, that will play into expectation when people are negotiating contracts, and those contracts will often drive inflation. That's why it's difficult to tame inflation once it hits services. Prices for products can be dropped. Wages are much stickier and once wage inflation is factored into contracts as a given, it's difficult to stop the positive feedback without a recession and likely a relatively deep one.
Things are going to get worse.
The Inflation Reduction Act will do nothing to decrease inflation, it actually may increase inflation due to the increased taxes on business that will be passed on to individuals and the increased Federal spending.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2022/08/07/inflation-reduction-act-false/
"The Congressional Budget Office estimates that, over the next two years, the Inflation Reduction Act is likely to change the inflation rate by less than one tenth of one percent — but it isn’t sure whether the change would be up or down."
"Government spending will have to be brought more in line with government revenue. Households will have to borrow less and save more. Interest rates will have to rise closer to historic levels while the value of the dollar will have to fall, raising the relative price of what we import while reducing the apparent price of what we produce for the rest of the world. The alternative to bringing things back into balance is to continue living with the boom-and-bust cycle of the past 30 years. Such an economy will require ever larger doses of fiscal and monetary stimulus to prevent falling into recession. It will also remain an economy in which the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. It will remain an economy that becomes increasingly and dangerously indebted to the rest of the world.In short, a healthy, sustainable economy is not one that requires government officials to be constantly and dramatically adjusting macroeconomic dials in Washington to keep things in balance. Rather, it is one that relies more on the natural self-correcting mechanisms of open, competitive and well-regulated markets."
The Inflation Reduction Act will do nothing to decrease inflation, it actually may increase inflation due to the increased taxes on business that will be passed on to individuals and the increased Federal spending.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2022/08/07/inflation-reduction-act-false/
"The Congressional Budget Office estimates that, over the next two years, the Inflation Reduction Act is likely to change the inflation rate by less than one tenth of one percent — but it isn’t sure whether the change would be up or down."
"Government spending will have to be brought more in line with government revenue. Households will have to borrow less and save more. Interest rates will have to rise closer to historic levels while the value of the dollar will have to fall, raising the relative price of what we import while reducing the apparent price of what we produce for the rest of the world. The alternative to bringing things back into balance is to continue living with the boom-and-bust cycle of the past 30 years. Such an economy will require ever larger doses of fiscal and monetary stimulus to prevent falling into recession. It will also remain an economy in which the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. It will remain an economy that becomes increasingly and dangerously indebted to the rest of the world.In short, a healthy, sustainable economy is not one that requires government officials to be constantly and dramatically adjusting macroeconomic dials in Washington to keep things in balance. Rather, it is one that relies more on the natural self-correcting mechanisms of open, competitive and well-regulated markets."
Drop in supply, for purposes of discussing inflation or supply and demand, is not just to be discussed in absolute terms. A flat supply while demand increases with population, is a relative drop in supply. Especially when there's no natural limit to the supply. A flat supply of a non-limited good while demand increases is NOT a story of inflation due to printed money, it's a story of market capture leading to increased prices and profit. All you have to do is look at the profit margins of beef. Inflation doesn't cause profits like that. Full stop.
Re bacon
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000704111
Bacon prices have been going up on a clear trend for decades. We're barely above trend. I would take the educated guess that this is similar to what happened with chicken wings: the demand for part of the carcass outpaced demand for the rest of the carcass. As the latter is a natural limit to the supply, the price will increase on the minor part with the increasing demand. Again, this is not a story of printed money.
My situation is just like your last paragraph. I don’t have any student loans but my wife has a little bit lingering from getting her masters. She has not been required to make a payment since the start of the pandemic. We continued making pretty large payments up until Biden got elected. I’m not really supportive of broad student loan forgiveness but I’m also smart enough to take advantage of it, should that happen.
I'm still trying to figure out how America is going to clean up the atmosphere for the rest of the planet if China, India, Russia et al aren't just as committed as we are.
We probably can't, because Russia and China actively want a warmer world. Russia so that it can open up vast portions of Siberia to agriculture, and China so that it can more effectively use the Arctic for shipping and trade.
That's why it's time to consider some out-of-the-box options.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stratospheric_aerosol_injection
I'm not sure that your premise is correct, that most goods have gone up in price. Last time I looked, a couple months ago?, many goods were flat in price, and more were on trend.
The expansion of the monetary base (again, not sure I agree with the premise) could cause trends to continue whereas they otherwise would not have, but I don't think that should be framed as inflation caused by money printing.
I also would not agree with the premise that fiscal policy has obviously been bad. The jobs recovery has been gangbusters, and if all that accompanied it is a year of inflation, that's a pretty big win compared to the possible alternatives. Obviously if inflation sticks its a loss.
In general, people that are so much of an ahole that they get mad that someone else got helped when they didnt, and would prefer that everyone got screwed if they did even if it harms the economy, tend to already vote Republican anyway.
A hypothetical scenario
Let's say the global consortium got their act together some years down the road, and we made significant progress towards a carbon free world. Let's say the temperature increases began to reverse. And reverse some more. And some more. How would the world "hit the brakes" if we entered a period where there was serious negative effects from a world that got too cold?
Let's say the global consortium got their act together some years down the road, and we made significant progress towards a carbon free world. Let's say the temperature increases began to reverse. And reverse some more. And some more. How would the world "hit the brakes" if we entered a period where there was serious negative effects from a world that got too cold?
Giant mirrors in space to reflect more light to Earth, or spreading black dust on glaciers to lower Earth's albedo, would be 2 low-tech solutions if we needed it.
What indexes can you find that has not gone up? What are you buying in your day to day life that hasn't gone up?
I know PPI and CPI are just representative baskets and may not be accurate for everybody, but I don't think they are going to shoot up the way they have if goods aren't going up.
https://www.bls.gov/charts/producer-price-index/final-demand-12-month-percent-change.htm
https://www.bls.gov/charts/producer...unprocessed-goods-12-month-percent-change.htm
https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm
https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category.htm#
And if you look at average price data from BLS (https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-average-price-data.htm; I don't know how it picks the categories or whether you can change it), there are a couple of categories that have remained flat (bananas), but the majority of them either show a price rise or a dramatic price rise.
Disagree that it has expanded? https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL Or disagree that it matters?
I understand that argument on the cares act. I think what would have been more helpful would have been less government obstruction and less spending, but I get the argument. But the $1.9 trillion American rescue plan was passed when civilian unemployment was already down to 6%, the vaccine was available, and a lot of CARES act money hadn't really flowed through the economy yet. But if we don't have persistent inflation and a significant recession to stop it, then there will be an argument. I'm one of the few people that thinks federal debt matters, so I still will be skeptical, but I'm apparently in a very tiny minority that think it matters anymore.
Ha - don’t discount the secret funding from Russia and Saudi to the green activists. They’re not morons
There's no such thing as free money. That's the opposition. I'd love to see my kids' debts paid off, but that's simply another tax on most people. How about the government stop wasting billions/trillions in tax money on ******** foreign aide and wars and make education virtually free anyway?
Interesting to see this argument here but practically never in consideration that soot from say China's coal burn is having an effect on temperature.
The statement above might have some validity if our government operated anything close to a balanced budget….but we all know that **** ain’t true.
This packs a lot of stuff wrong into a short post. First, it's not that other people are being helped, it's that other people that are well off will be "gifted" money at my expense, and more importantly, at the expense of people that are not as well off. Second, it's not just republicans that understand that printing a bunch of money to give to people that aren't them does hurt them. Third, it doesn't screw relatively highly paid college graduates to pay back the money they voluntarily borrowed. It doesn't really screw low income drop outs either, but certainly a much better argument for giving them some relief.
Oh, it's primarily waste. They take our money and toss it (after certain people pocket it) and then take more for the sake of helping us you know.
That wasn’t really the point. They aren’t taking any more money to pay for the forgiveness. They just put more on the credit card by borrowing. And as long as the dollar remains strong, they will continue to do so. Doesn’t matter if its student loan debt forgiveness or throwing more at defense spending or infrastructure spending or what have you. So saying that “someone else is footing the bill” isn’t really accurate. Someone else from another country is paying for it on the front end for puny returns on a T-bill. That’s a more accurate description.
Long story short, don’t feel bad about you (or your kids) getting student loan debt forgiven.
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Except this is sorta like saying passing a large tax raise on a group, then slightly reducing it, is "printing a bunch of money to give to people". Americans shouldn't have to pay a 200% tax of the cost of education to bankers.
So giving a tax break to billionaires hurts the non-billionares then?
But really what you are missing is the difference between options available to Congress, and options available to Biden. And a large share of that messaging failure belongs to Biden. Biden should make a national address and explain he can do one of only 2 things: nothing, or elimination of X amount of college debt. Explain that he can't do nuance, he's not Congress. He cant lower the interest rate, he cant discern (much) between borrowers that deserve relief and those that dont. He cant compensate those that sacrificed to pay off loans early. Congress can though. Then lay down the gauntlet. He will not do nothing, he will cancel X amount of debt, UNLESS Congress passes something. Anything. Even a bill that says do nothing. Clean bill, regular order.
I am actually stunned at the audacity of you making this argument. After decades of you personally making the argument that we should cut the taxes of the rich, including that it's OK because it (supposedly) benefits the rest of us even if we personally are directly harmed, now you 180 and say with a straight face that we can't even slightly reduce the ridiculous burden placed on this generation via college debt because it's "gifted money at your expense". Jesus H Christ.
Except that it's not like that at all. There's a huge difference between giving somebody money that's not theirs and not taking money that is theirs. If the government cancelled all SBA loans, that would be a give away also.
And they don't have to. Unless they agreed to. It's also true that if the government hadn't 17ed up higher education financing, it wouldn't cost nearly as much or be nearly as wasteful. But it's already done that and all in all, the people that have had to pay more for it are still relatively well off. I'd be more concerned about the people that wanted to go to college but couldn't afford to pay and understood that they were not a good candiate to borrow $80k to go to college. They should have been able to go to college for much cheaper, even if they weren't an ideal candidate. They were likely hurt more than the person that actually borrowed money and graduated.
Nope. Not if it's not a refundable tax credit. That doesn't mean that there aren't bad tax policies but it's not a direct harm in the way to just handing out cash to relatively affluent people is.
Or he could just respect the constitution and not legislate at all or spend money that hasn't been authorized by Congress, even if there is an argument that Congress inadvertently delegated the ability to spend a trillion dollars to the president.
Pretty sure I haven't personally made that argument for decades. Don't know that I've ever advocated for cutting the taxes of the rich. If I have, it would be because it flows from a matter of fairness or efficiency, not because it benefits the rest of us. Sounds like the made up trickle down arguments you like to cite.
That and the used car market is still red hot. We traded our Armada and got a Palisade and the dealership pretty much had our Armada sold the day we brought it.
Who do you think pushed that the most?
Democrats.
Should Republicans have fought it? Yes. But it would have been political suicide and we would have every looney tune leftist agenda pass by now.
So I’m glad they didn’t fight even though they should have.
Democrats.
Should Republicans have fought it? Yes. But it would have been political suicide and we would have every looney tune leftist agenda pass by now.
So I’m glad they didn’t fight even though they should have.
I wasn't aware that current student debt holders were paying their notes with other people's money.**
Pretty sure borrowers didn't agree to bail out every debt holder but their own. Were you living in that cave back in '08? If we hadn't bailed out Wall Street, and just recently the airlines for like the 5th time, and hell basically every small business in 2020........
It's not disrespecting the constitution or Congress just because you don't like it. And Congress has the power to clarify themselves. If they don't, it's implicit approval.
Eta: gotta love the double standard. Tax cuts for rich people isn't other people's money, but anything for anyone else is. Dude, have some common decency. Circling back, the people that are such raging aholes that they can make that argument with a straight face, already vote Republican.
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Good luck finding 87K people who are qualified when there are 11 million open private sector jobs available. Also if the republicans take control of the House which they probably will that will not be funded. In fact a lot of it will not be funded. Also the bill still has to get through the house. Republicans only need to flip six votes.
https://beef2live.com/story-retail-...raged $6.52,highest yearly average on record.
Bacon
April 2015 $5.21/lbs
April 2016 $5.61/lbs
April 2017 $5.78/lbs
April 2018 $5.42/lbs
April 2019 $5.55/lbs
April 2020 $5.35/lbs
April 2021 $6.22/lbs
April 2022 $7.42/lbs
Bacinflation baby.
Bacon
April 2015 $5.21/lbs
April 2016 $5.61/lbs
April 2017 $5.78/lbs
April 2018 $5.42/lbs
April 2019 $5.55/lbs
April 2020 $5.35/lbs
April 2021 $6.22/lbs
April 2022 $7.42/lbs
Bacinflation baby.
All of the Met Coal mined in Alabama is leaving the US to be used for other countries to make steel with out coal.
Look at the chart in my link, then look at your list. Then look at what period of my chart is covered by your list. Picture the time period of your list on my chart. Realization may soon follow.
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