Let's see who our sharps and squares are here on BWI. Post your picks and any analysis you'd like to share.
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OT: Official BWI Sports Gambling Thread
- Thread starter wbcbus
- Start date
Not sure I want to do a contest or track bets, but I'd love to share bets, leans, and info that would be helpful to handicap.
It's disgusting, but I took Nebraska when it was at +11.5. The Huskers are typically better in the dog role and hoping to get the fired coach bump.
Also grabbed Memphis -14, Miami (FL) +5.5, Iowa U40.
Waiting for SMU +3-110 (plus some moneyline).
Looking at UTSA +12.5, UGA -24 (if it gets there), Fresno +12.5 (and maybe O74), Troy +12.5, UAB -11.5.
It's disgusting, but I took Nebraska when it was at +11.5. The Huskers are typically better in the dog role and hoping to get the fired coach bump.
Also grabbed Memphis -14, Miami (FL) +5.5, Iowa U40.
Waiting for SMU +3-110 (plus some moneyline).
Looking at UTSA +12.5, UGA -24 (if it gets there), Fresno +12.5 (and maybe O74), Troy +12.5, UAB -11.5.
I don't play a lot of college football of my own, but one I did play on our game this week is Clifford under 11.5 rushing yards (DKNJ) at -115. Some of it is a feel play, but he's not keeping the ball nearly as much this season, and from what I've seen from our oline, I expect him to get sacked multiple times.
Also following the Iowa line closely and hoping it’ll drop another point or so, but assume I’ll be playing them.
Also following the Iowa line closely and hoping it’ll drop another point or so, but assume I’ll be playing them.
Certainly no need to track if folks aren’t interested.
I’m actually with you on that Nebraska pick. Im also on Miami +5.5.
I actually have Purdue favored by 1.5 points, but I probably didn't upgrade SYR as much as others after their trouncing of Louisville. I suspect that the oddsmakers gave SYR another bump after Louisville beat UCF. I'm not touching it, but I've seen a few pros that have bet Syracuse on the moneyline.
I considered Iowa as well. Nevada is so bad. I'm not sure they score more than 7 points and this seems like a get right game for the Iowa offense. Not sure you get a -21 if that is what you are looking for.
Basically just looking to hit it at its bottom…fine with it where it is now, but think if it moves at all, it’s dropping a bit.
Depending on the outcome of this Nebraska game, I may just place a permanent moratorium on myself for betting them. I'm always on them, and the always fail me.
9/17's menu (and it looks like a Cheesecake Factory menu):
West Virginia -39 (W)
Montana State +16 (L)
Cal +13 (W)
Ga Southern +12 1/2 (L)
Western Michigan +11 (L)
Miami +6 1/2 (L)
UTSA +12 1/2 (L)
New Mexico State team under 4 (L)
UL Monroe team under 5 1/2 (L)
Akron team under 9 1/2 (W)
Liberty-Wake over 64 (W)
BYU +3 1/2 (L)
Ohio State 1st half -20 (W)
Tennessee 1st half -30 1/2 (W)
Alabama 1st half -31 (L)
Air Force-Wyoming over 47 (L)
Syracuse ML (W)
Texas Tech +10 (L)
Maryland -2 1/2 (W)
Penn State -3 (W)
Nevada team under 9 1/2 (W)
Fresno-USC over 72 (L)
West Virginia -39 (W)
Montana State +16 (L)
Cal +13 (W)
Ga Southern +12 1/2 (L)
Western Michigan +11 (L)
Miami +6 1/2 (L)
UTSA +12 1/2 (L)
New Mexico State team under 4 (L)
UL Monroe team under 5 1/2 (L)
Akron team under 9 1/2 (W)
Liberty-Wake over 64 (W)
BYU +3 1/2 (L)
Ohio State 1st half -20 (W)
Tennessee 1st half -30 1/2 (W)
Alabama 1st half -31 (L)
Air Force-Wyoming over 47 (L)
Syracuse ML (W)
Texas Tech +10 (L)
Maryland -2 1/2 (W)
Penn State -3 (W)
Nevada team under 9 1/2 (W)
Fresno-USC over 72 (L)
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Hah, well I had 2 big 10 team money line parlays that Iowa was the last remaining one I needed to hit them, so I waited out the full lightning delays.
Since I go through this process every week, I thought I would jot down some notes to share. These are games where the box score didn't line up with the final score.
Temple outgained Rutgers 264 to 201, 4.3 to 3.5 yards per play (ypp), but was -1 TO and lost 16-14
Purdue outgained Syracuse 435-306, 6.3-4.7 ypp!! -1in TO and lost 32-29
WKY outgained Indy 545-485, 6.7-5.4 ypp. -1 TO and lost33-30
Liberty outgained WF 433-350, 5.7-4.9 ypp. -2TO and lost 37-36
Marshall outgained BG 424-250, 8.0-5.0 ypp!!! -2 TO and lost 34-31
TT outgained NCST 353-270, 2.1-4.4 ypp. -3TO and lost 27-14
Miami outgained TAM 392-264, 5.1-5.1 ypp, 27 FD to 16. -1 TO and lost 17-9
Keep in mind for next week. Goes to show what turnovers can do. I've heard respected guys estimate it at about 5 points to the spread. Empirically, I've found this to be pretty close over time.
Temple outgained Rutgers 264 to 201, 4.3 to 3.5 yards per play (ypp), but was -1 TO and lost 16-14
Purdue outgained Syracuse 435-306, 6.3-4.7 ypp!! -1in TO and lost 32-29
WKY outgained Indy 545-485, 6.7-5.4 ypp. -1 TO and lost33-30
Liberty outgained WF 433-350, 5.7-4.9 ypp. -2TO and lost 37-36
Marshall outgained BG 424-250, 8.0-5.0 ypp!!! -2 TO and lost 34-31
TT outgained NCST 353-270, 2.1-4.4 ypp. -3TO and lost 27-14
Miami outgained TAM 392-264, 5.1-5.1 ypp, 27 FD to 16. -1 TO and lost 17-9
Keep in mind for next week. Goes to show what turnovers can do. I've heard respected guys estimate it at about 5 points to the spread. Empirically, I've found this to be pretty close over time.
Well, last year they were 7-5 ATS, so they haven't been bad to bettors. They typically performed well as dogs, but yeah, I think they may be a stay away team from now on. If they didn't get the fired-coach-bump, they could be a risky play from now on. Oh, and Northwestern loss looks way worse too.
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Why I would’ve lost a ton of money on the Bengals live against the Steelers when the Steelers had a +4 TO ratio at halftime but only led 17-6 with the Bengals getting the ball first. I was certain the Bengals would win (and, absent an injured long snapper, would have, twice).
Also, this is just great info, thanks @Grant Green . Square better tends to bet record and most recent results, and Vegas has to adjust to that. The advantage is recognizing where a win wasn't "legitimate" so you can zag on that team the next game.
I missed a great one, as I don't often look at FCS-FBS.
Duquesne outgained Hawaii 364-184, 4.5 to 4.0 ypp and lost 24-14. Hawaii had 93 pass yards and 91 rush yards.
Hawaii was gutted by player departures and may be worse than expected.
Duquesne outgained Hawaii 364-184, 4.5 to 4.0 ypp and lost 24-14. Hawaii had 93 pass yards and 91 rush yards.
Hawaii was gutted by player departures and may be worse than expected.
Need a new gumball machine since D'Annunzio never paid me for the one he broke. The best 5 picks of the week:
MICHIGAN -17 over Maryland
Southern Cal -6 over OREGON ST
RUTGERS +7.5 over Iowa
Arkansas +2.5 over Texas A&M
Ucla -21.5 over COLORADO
MICHIGAN -17 over Maryland
Southern Cal -6 over OREGON ST
RUTGERS +7.5 over Iowa
Arkansas +2.5 over Texas A&M
Ucla -21.5 over COLORADO
This week's menu:
Coastal-GA State over 62 1/2 (W)
Syracuse -10 (L)
Kansas -7 (W)
JMU +7 (W)
JMU-App State over 58 1/2 (W)
Arizona +3 1/2 (L)
Purdue -20 (L)
Wake +7 (W)
TCU -1 (W)
North Carolina Even (L)
Oklahoma -13 (L)
Georgia -28 1/2 first half (L)
Georgia team total over 53 (L)
Michigan-East Michigan-Kansas ML parlay (L)
UNH -6 (W)
Wazzu +6 (went from easy W to facepalming L to miracle W)
Wazzu ML (L)
Arkansas ML (L)
UNLV -2 1/2 (W)
Miami (OH) +7 1/2 (W)
Another craptacular, spin-your-wheels 10-10 CFB weekend.
Coastal-GA State over 62 1/2 (W)
Syracuse -10 (L)
Kansas -7 (W)
JMU +7 (W)
JMU-App State over 58 1/2 (W)
Arizona +3 1/2 (L)
Purdue -20 (L)
Wake +7 (W)
TCU -1 (W)
North Carolina Even (L)
Oklahoma -13 (L)
Georgia -28 1/2 first half (L)
Georgia team total over 53 (L)
Michigan-East Michigan-Kansas ML parlay (L)
UNH -6 (W)
Wazzu +6 (went from easy W to facepalming L to miracle W)
Wazzu ML (L)
Arkansas ML (L)
UNLV -2 1/2 (W)
Miami (OH) +7 1/2 (W)
Another craptacular, spin-your-wheels 10-10 CFB weekend.
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Turning it over 4 times is not the friend of the favorite bettor.
I was on UVA +9.5 and UTEP +16.5 tonight, but won’t take credit as I didn’t post them here. Still, my current run is the best of my life. I hit two 10 team ML parlays last week that were 5/1, and had 100% boosts on them. Combined with 9-2 ATS and 2-0 this week with tonight, I’m feeling good. Seems like a good time to fall, so here are my losers for this Saturday:
Iowa St -2.5
Duke +7.5
Texas Tech +7
Michigan State +3
UNC -2.5
Tennessee -10.5
Washington St +6.5
Marshall -3.5
Arkansas +2.5
Oregon State +6
BYU -21.5
Utah -15.5
Iowa St -2.5
Duke +7.5
Texas Tech +7
Michigan State +3
UNC -2.5
Tennessee -10.5
Washington St +6.5
Marshall -3.5
Arkansas +2.5
Oregon State +6
BYU -21.5
Utah -15.5
Probably a relatively square play, but I'm on Thomas/Spieth this afternoon at -150 against Matsuyama/Pendrith.
Cashing tickets is what it's all about and that one should be a winner.
The Iowa/Rutgers over finally sucked me in at 33.5 -110 (also feel the Iowa TT o20.5 a little bit juiced up is strong).
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